NARR’s earnings are set to surge. NARR’s earnings are set to jump post the ongoing corporate restructuring. Although the consolidation of profits from the cement and concrete businesses are only expected to commence in FY15, we have prepared a proforma statement from FY12-15 (see Figure 18) based on NARR’s enlarged structure post the proposed exercise for your easy reference. As the company’s furniture business has barely hit breakeven levels over the past two years, the market will view the asset injection as a backdoor listing. HCement will contribute almost 90% of NARR’s enlarged FY15 earnings, with the synergistic concrete business generating the remaining 10% profit for the company. We think NARR will be rebranded as the new cement stock on Bursa Malaysia.
Value creation already in the making in NARR. We opine that investors would agree that, in the past, NARR had little chance of appearing on the investment radar. Aside from being tiny, the company’s existing principal activities are in the mundane yet highly-competitive furniture industry. As NARR is set to carry on with its proposed 50% capital reduction before consolidating its two MYR0.50 shares into one MYR1.00 share, its theoretical share price will be double that of its present market value. NARR last closed at MYR1.56, which implies 20.6x P/E on our FY15 estimates. The company’s share price, post the proposed corporate exercise announcement, once again supports our view that the exercise is value-accretive, especially with NARR’s current valuation far exceeding HLI’s.
NARR’s FV at MYR2.27. Cement stocks enjoy decent valuations inclusive of regional peers in the fast-developing South-East Asia (SEA) region, where valuations are now averaging at 14.6x one-year forward P/E. That said, due to the scarcity – and also partly due its generous dividend policy that pays in excess of 90% of net profit – both LMC and TC are generally trading at a premium to their regional peers. That said, as HCement is only a new kid on the block – via its greenfield plant – coupled with the possibility of its Phase 2 expansion limiting its ability to pay generous dividends when compared with its local peers – we prefer to estimate a 30% payout ratio vs the standard Hong Leong Group practice of paying almost half of earnings. Therefore, we think it may be more appropriate to value NARR at 15x FY15F P/E, which is a 15% discount to its West Malaysia peers. Hence, we derive a FV of MYR2.27. Although this is lower than its market price now, we suspect that a possible earnings surprise on the upside may justify a higher valuation.
......As NARR is set to carry on with its proposed 50% capital reduction before consolidating its two MYR0.50 shares into one MYR1.00 share, its theoretical share price will be double that of its present market value. NARR last closed at MYR1.56..................... so post consolidation d price shd b MYR 3.12 ie 1.56 x 2..
Then........... NARR’s FV at MYR 2.27.
MYR 3.12 now vs FV MYR 2.27.... is Narra b a good buy at current price?
Narra has weak fundamental in HL Group. You should look at Southern Steel instead. The demand for steel in M'sia remain strong. HL Group once wanted to take Southern Steel private at RM2.00.
hi ragha ... this 1 hard to predict ... me 2 days 1.79/1.80 off load 25 % d ... rasa can go higher ... but now 1.80 resistant quite strong ... retailer holding few % only ... up to quek and big boy main .........
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greatman9
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Posted by greatman9 > 2014-02-13 21:04 | Report Abuse
hopefully break 1.63 then can see 1.72