Even if bdi hits 2500 (which is unlikely because of the shortfall of dry bulk carrier in the world) its still x5 times the bdi of 500 in 2020. These carriers take 2 years to build which means that the current dry bulk carriers available in the world today will see a multiple fold earnings boost for the next 2 years at least. And as the world comes out of covid into recovery later in the year, dry bulk demand will further skyrocket. Place your bets now to cash in.
Base on my estimation for Q1 2021, revenue is around RM50mil with PAT RM10mil. It is assumed that average TCE 12k USD and Hire Day 860 day for Q1 2021.
Base on current BDI, Q2 2021 average TCE should be able to achieve >18k USD. Then Q2 2021 can reach revenue RM70mil with PAT RM30mil. Forward PE is around 6 only if it's true.
Let's wait for Q1 financial result to verify all my assumption.
batu88,base on your calculation will u hold your position or add some more until end of this year?.For me my answer is yes if profit show increase significant!
Have to wait for Q2 results 1st and estimate the average TCE again. By then only know what to do next. If average TCE for maybulk can reach 15k usd and above, for me anything below rm1 is worth to collect more. Anyway, won't do anything now, I have not much bullet to collect more now. Lol.
TCE is time charter equivalent. It's a daily rental rate. You may refer to their quarterly report. Maybulk did show this figure in their quarterly report.
I attended its online AGM. Chairman mentioned that the quarterly results will be released by this week (tomorrow / day after). He did hint the results "should be good" for this current and next quarter but anything beyond this is "uncertain". They will update the increasing TCE and and BDI trend in the quarterly report too. To me, the management is pro and "on the field" in the industry and have proper capital management in mind. If we assume the industry is on its 10-year low and toward its end of consolidation, it is worth to wait and enjoy it uptrend from here. Just need to wait for few years. Not for short term trade
Bank pembangunan has been off loading almost daily which has created the selling pressure. They are selling because they need the funds for the 3b loan program they are launching for the government. Nothing to do with FA. By all counts they are down to the last 2 or 3 % shareholding. Once they are done, this counter will have no resistance but to fly
Management are quite conservative in their forecast and uncertain for coming Q3 and Q4. Let's us wait for fruitful Q1 and Q2 result and check for Q3 Q4 BDI at that time. If the demand is continue strong, it is worth for us to hold longer term. In addition, during AGM, did mentioned that no more impairment loss this year (suppose to mark it as gain instead of loss since 2nd hand value for dry bulk vessel increase a lot this year).
So long as BDI is above 1700, Maybulk will be nearing breakeven barring any unforeseen events.
If BDI maintains above 2200 for the entire year, the simulated forward EPS would be around 14 sen. Every increase in of +200pts from BDI 2200 onwards adds about 2 sens more to the forward EPS.
The leading indicator to watch other than the BDI will be Pacific Basin in HKEX 2343.HK...happy investing
wah,wah,wah! If BDI maintains above 2200 for the entire year, the simulated forward EPS would be around 14 sen. Every increase in of +200pts from BDI 2200 onwards adds about 2 sens more to the forward EPS. Dear Wok : What formula you used to conclude the above statement,(Why EPS would be around 14 sent?)Pls dont misled Chl1989 again!
Post a Comment
People who like this
New Topic
You should check in on some of those fields below.
Title
Category
Comment
Confirmation
Click Confirm to delete this Forum Thread and all the associated comments.
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
chl1989
2,552 posts
Posted by chl1989 > 2021-05-11 22:21 | Report Abuse
plz panic sell to me