Posted by win2win > 2016-04-01 09:52 | Report Abuse

but still we have to accept the fact that USD is weakening! Even the company is doing great but we can't foresee what would happen in the future!

Posted by andrewhlc > 2016-04-01 10:23 | Report Abuse

USD is weakening, RM is getting stronger, but when it currency getting stable, the the rank will around 3.80 - 4.00, this will not affect company performance. as a guideline on calculation for last quarter EPS 6.27 with currency exchange rate 4.20, now i assure it 3.80, 4.20 - 3.80 = 0.40, 40 / 420 = 9.5%, so EPS 6.27 drop 9.5% for next quarter, EPS is still roughly maintained at 5.6 sen. if quarterly EPS remains 5 sen, financial year end achieves EPS 20. Based on P.E 10, target price RM2.00

Posted by newbird33 > 2016-04-01 11:03 | Report Abuse

andrewhlc is dreaming

Posted by win2win > 2016-04-01 11:39 | Report Abuse

everyone is dreaming here and get trapped!

Posted by Jupiter > 2016-04-01 11:39 | Report Abuse

IMHO, when forex drops by 10%, Hevea's profit will drop by a lot more than 10%. This is because more than 90% of Hevea's sales is from exports while most of its cost is in RM. Hevea's 4Q2015 revenue was RM150mil. If USD dropped by 10% and 90% of RM150m is in USD, that means sales would have shrunk by RM13m. But cost would not drop by much since they are mostly in RM. Taking into account 14% tax rate, that means its PAT would drop by RM11mil if forex drop 10%. Assuming Hevea can repeat 4Q2015 production performance (which itself admits 4Q always is their best quarter), its PAT would drop from RM26mil to RM15mil or an EPS of 3.4sen. Annualised, it would be RM0.135.

Posted by andrewhlc > 2016-04-01 11:46 | Report Abuse

lets see whether i am dreaming or not, short-term it may not achieve RM2.00, Target price is just based on PE 10, but normally we marked down 20% from target price, if EPS remains 20sen in financial year end. RM1.60 is easily achieved

Posted by Hulk > 2016-04-01 11:48 | Report Abuse

Jupiter, so scary so should be run away from Hevea.

But the management said the improvement of the PAT also contribution by more order from customer and better cost control which consider of 40% of impact of the PAT improvement. And also said that they actual reduce their selling price because of USD strengthen. so that's mean it will be price increasing if the MYR strengthen. And HEVEA will settle the Loan by April or May. this will help HEVEA to free out MYR25mil every year in future. and portion of this free cash will be pay out as dividend.

Posted by Jupiter > 2016-04-01 12:10 | Report Abuse

Hi Hulk. I am not saying whether Hevea is good to invest into or not. I am only looking at effect of forex drop on revenue and profit.

I follow Hevea as I think it had a pretty good turn around from the near-disaster a few years back. But I am not invested in Hevea. I dont know enough about it to commit.

Posted by Ezra_Investor > 2016-04-01 12:27 | Report Abuse

Sometimes people sure love talking without facts.
If you're a true investor, you should not consider too much on forex gain or loss when buying a business.
Hevea 5 years Net profit CAGR is 85.72%.
From 2011-2014 mid, Hevea's currency is at around 3.00-3.15, yet growth is 55.28%.
From 2011-2015 peak, Average currency is at 3.66, growth is 85.72%.
While currency appreciation is a windfall, Hevea in previous years has demonstrated that they can register good growth with or without currency fluctuation, unlike some other counters which solely rely on currency windfall.
Not to mention, currently 3.90 is still much higher than 2014 and is as high as Aug 2015.

Posted by andrewhlc > 2016-04-01 12:39 | Report Abuse

Jupiter, you can check the second quarter of 2015, the higher exchange rate of USD to RM is only RM3.682, compared it to last quarter sale 2015, how much sales it had increased, though the calculation you will know how much EPS roughly hevea can make it in the coming quarter. Currency is not the main issue, how much sales it can increase only the big issue

Posted by TomyamGong > 2016-04-01 12:44 | Report Abuse

Correction of usd almost ending. It's time to collect cheap now.

Posted by TomyamGong > 2016-04-01 12:44 | Report Abuse

the sign of rebound shown

Posted by BUCKBUNNY > 2016-04-01 13:11 | Report Abuse

I suspect all commenters here are not interested to buy Hevea...Market is so boring..so here is for people to talk and past time.all are fake stories here..how this stocks to goes up?if you believe and buy then get trapped..

Posted by Ezra_Investor > 2016-04-01 13:22 | Report Abuse

Precisely because market is boring, people talk.
Nothing is as fake as stories told by a bunny anyway.

Posted by BUCKBUNNY > 2016-04-01 13:42 | Report Abuse

Here is the fun land,,,talk for fun..

Posted by Jupiter > 2016-04-01 13:57 | Report Abuse

Hi andrew. I'm really not here to say whether Hevea is good or bad. But like bunny and ezra said, market is boring so what the hey, let's talk.....

If I look at hevea's 2Q2015, revenue was RM111m vs RM151m revenue in 4Q15. That's an increase of RM40m. How much of it is due to forex and how much due to volume sales increase? I dont know. Hahahaha.... But if I may use this method: 2Q15 COS is RM88m, 4Q15 COS is RM109m. So RM21m COS increase I just assume is due to volume increase. Now the GP for 2Q15 is 21%. So applying this on COS means sales increase due to volume should be RM27m (RM21m/79%). So GP increase of RM6m would have came from volume increase. Now GP in 4Q is RM19m higher than GP in 2Q. After minus RM6m, left GP of RM13m that came from increased forex. This RM13m before tax correspond to my earlier post. I dont know if this means my calculation is correct or not but hey, nothing to do now except talk.

My earlier post that ended up with EPS of 3.4sen a quarter is based on Hevea's best Q so far, ie 4Q15 but at lower exchange rate of RM3.80 scenario as first suggested by andrew.

Again, pls note I'm not saying buy or sell hevea, whether hevea good or bad, RM going up or down, Rosmah cantik or not. I'm just here to jabber....

Posted by andrewhlc > 2016-04-01 14:48 | Report Abuse

jupiter, that is simple in calculation, what you ask about on "How much of it is due to forex and how much due to volume sales increase?" we are no needed talk about currency exchange rate increased, assuming currency exchange rate remains RM3.682, just talk about the sale was increased from 111m to RM151m is about 26.49%. so, quarter two 2015 is EPS 15.82, the increasing of 26.49% will increase the EPS of 4.19 in result. so EPS 15.82 + 4.19 = 20.01. then we divided by 4 bcos of split, quarterly can achieve EPS 5 based on currency exchange rate RM3.682. May be i am wrong, but currency exchange rate now is USD 1 to RM3.89. so why i need to worry? my worry just the sale which is not achieved in the coming quarter.

Posted by andrewhlc > 2016-04-01 14:57 | Report Abuse

if company can continue to expand it biz, close the eye to buy it.

Posted by bullorbear123 > 2016-04-01 15:01 | Report Abuse

suddenly so many expertise appeared @@
buy if you want to hold for 1 year or more, sell if you found this counter is not comfort to hold for short term, that's easy

Posted by shazali6609 > 2016-04-01 15:17 | Report Abuse

hard compsny..bad div, bad future

Posted by win2win > 2016-04-01 15:27 | Report Abuse

break new low 1.17!!

Posted by Jupiter > 2016-04-01 16:23 | Report Abuse

andrew, your comparison of RM151m and RM111m and the resulting 26.49% (actually it should be 36% as 40/111 not 40/151) increase means you assume the full RM40m sales increase is due to volume increase and nothing to do with forex even though forex went up from 3.7 to 4.3.

Posted by saltedfish > 2016-04-01 17:08 | Report Abuse

Haha, 1.16 and sliding...Lol

Posted by andrewhlc > 2016-04-01 18:00 | Report Abuse

you are right Jupiter, the above i assumed which is nothing to do with forex, it only counted on sale increased, this could be wrong on what i am calculated, but based on exchange rate of RM3.682 Q2 2015, EPS 15.82, divided by 4 after split is EPS 3.95, so minimum company can achieve EPS 3.95 quarterly based on exchange rate of RM3.682. this assume is no increasing on sales and exchange rate of RM3.89 now. so EPS 4 is easily achieved, EPS 5 is possible if sale continue increased.

Posted by RosmahMansur > 2016-04-01 18:12 | Report Abuse

Managed to grab at 1.17 today

Posted by andrewhlc > 2016-04-01 18:15 | Report Abuse

another assuming that is influenced by forex, previous quarter EPS 6.27 -15% forex influenced, it still achieve EPS 5.32．this 15% drop from the 4.30 to RM3.655.

Posted by RosmahMansur > 2016-04-01 18:35 | Report Abuse

Guys, i think we all should stop the mathematics here....quit the guessing game and stay invested in Hevea. let the numbers speak for themself this May 2016. No point cracking your head and debating. Let those who has bad intentions or jealousy psycho be here. I am very confident of Hevea management and expansion as I had visited their factories in March 2016.

Posted by andrewhlc > 2016-04-01 18:45 | Report Abuse

cool..i am also very confident of hevea management too.

Posted by oregami > 2016-04-01 19:56 | Report Abuse

Why hevea share price drops ppl so happy? Can short hevea? How to short? Pls enlighten me. I also want some fast money.

Posted by ah_boon > 2016-04-01 23:58 | Report Abuse

Falling knife. No longer a trend.

Posted by adamwk > 2016-04-02 03:40 | Report Abuse

As long this company grow and make profit, no need to worry. Buy at the right time with good price for long term investment.

Posted by win2win > 2016-04-02 17:24 | Report Abuse

http://www.nst.com.my/node/136750

We have to worry!!!!!

Posted by bullorbear123 > 2016-04-02 18:26 | Report Abuse

good, sell all the way

Posted by Budapest > 2016-04-02 20:35 | Report Abuse

OMG!Monday sure drop below 1.00!Lol

Posted by Davidl > 2016-04-02 20:50 | Report Abuse

U guys sell & I buy, how good is it!

Posted by bullorbear123 > 2016-04-02 22:56 | Report Abuse

Finally Budapest has gone crazy

Posted by Budapest > 2016-04-03 00:38 | Report Abuse

I'm just joking,I have full confidence in this counter & won't sell if profit is not satisfactory,so let's cheers for hevea,current weak USD snenario will be short lived,just hold on,we can't buy sell following the fluctuation of currency,if so,we might as well invest in forex.

Posted by adamwk > 2016-04-03 16:01 | Report Abuse

lol when someone think export company as money changer and it will die just because appreciation of RM

Posted by bullorbear123 > 2016-04-03 16:20 | Report Abuse

Cheers!

Posted by ivonss > 2016-04-04 09:55 | Report Abuse

I can see the sign of increasing right now.

Posted by hansolo1 > 2016-04-04 11:56 | Report Abuse

Market up Market Down, Hevea also down..how low can it go?

Posted by BUCKBUNNY > 2016-04-04 12:36 | Report Abuse

buy more die faster..

Posted by cloudde > 2016-04-04 14:18 | Report Abuse

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-04-04/goldman-says-sell-asian-currencies-after-best-rally-since-2008

Just sharing. Please conduct your own due diligence prior to trading.

Cheers.

Posted by tt1981 > 2016-04-04 15:05 | Report Abuse

One day drop 20 sen... very fast go Holland...!!

Posted by GODinvest > 2016-04-04 15:06 | Report Abuse

Died liao

Posted by tt1981 > 2016-04-04 15:13 | Report Abuse

But seems it is a good price to collect again...

Posted by bullorbear123 > 2016-04-04 15:16 | Report Abuse

20 sen or 2 sen... @@

Posted by saltedfish > 2016-04-04 15:20 | Report Abuse

1.15 and still drifting lower, Lol

Posted by saltedfish > 2016-04-04 15:22 | Report Abuse

Posted by RosmahMansur > Apr 1, 2016 06:12 PM | Report Abuse
Managed to grab at 1.17 today

Thought smart but really is not, Lol

Posted by tt1981 > 2016-04-04 15:34 | Report Abuse

All in 1.14...