switch the chart into 5minutes chart. rm cant get stronger than 4.02. Wait zeti resign, and plus this najib still in power plus moody's lowering rate from positive into stable, wont get pass big roadblcok at 4 lah. dont dream.
1mdb have to FULLY settle OR Tun M stop whatever he is doin then only rm 3.8 back. Just bcoz u have sell at lost, dont try to bring others down with u.
I agree with Jupiter, Evergreen has been oversold by those speculators just because they thought USD has weakened... but they overlooked the fact that the current USD is still much stronger as compared to early 2015 while Evergreen was already making handsome profits... and do you think amidst scandals like the Saudi Arabia donations and other corruption issues in the BolehLand, and the low crude oil price (likely remain low for the next 5 years, at least, due to lower demand), Ringgit will be strong in 2016/17? I don't think so.. unless BN is gone in the next GE, there is a chance for RM to climb back to <RM4.00/USD1...
1Q2016 almost over. Traditionally 1Q is a weak Q for EVF. They say due to short month, CNY and also buyers holding back until furniture fairs (held in March) are over. If we look at 1Q2015, EVF reported PATAMI of RM20mil. If we remove forex gain, EVF only profited RM18mil.
2Q normally is strong for them, due to recovery from furniture fair held back orders, low log price due to dry season and no major holidays. EVF 2Q2015 PATAMI is RM24mil. Stripped off forex gain, around RM23mil.
2Q2015 USD1 was around RM3.7. Now USD1 about RM4 or about 8% higher. Assuming revenue of RM260mil (based on 2Q2015), 8% gain in forex would result in RM21mil additional profit. But EVF only has 70% revenue denominated in USD, and their glue cost is denominated in USD. Glue makes up around 30% of their cost. Their spare parts used in upkeep also denominated in USD plus they have some USD loans as well. So all in say they only benefited by 30%. So 30% x RM21mil = RM6mil additional profit due to stronger USD compared to 1Q2015.
If we based on 1Q2015 results, we are looking at EVF 1Q2016 PATAMI before forex of RM24mil or RM29mil if based on 2Q2015 result. So the test would be this: if EVF reports a PATAMI before forex of RM24mil, then their operating conditions didnt change from since 1Q2015. However anything more than RM24mil would mean they are more profitable than 1Q2015 due to either better ASP or lower cost or both. If they could report figures of RM29mil, that means their 'worst' quarter of 2016 is as good as or better than their 'best' quarter of 2015. This means significant improvement in cost structure.
EVF's operating conditions in 1H2016 should be largely similar to 2015 in that there is no contributions from RTA, a plant relocation and restart of particle board. Any improvements would be due to better forex, ASP and/or cost structure. 1Q2016 USD is lower than 2H2015. ASP shouldnt be any better due to low oil price affecting their Mid East customers. Most likely source of improvement would come from lower cost.
For now, I dont look at forex. I will focus on their 1Q2016. If they can earn more than RM26m then I will feel secure investing in them. That profit level means all their talk about cost savings are for real. These are long term features, not fickle lalang-follow-the-wind type of 'benefits' like high forex. And if they can earn RM26m in their worst quarter, that means they should meet consensus profit level of RM120mil for the year, if their RTA kicks in as expected. At 25% dividend (MINIMUM), that's 3.5% dividend yield. If their board feel generous, I can expect more dividends, giving me on par returns as FD while waiting for the market to wake up and realise what a gem they've missed out on that's EVF.
. Ringgit starts weakening by near 1% down China Stock mkt rebounded! Most export counters on the green! Start collecting while still low price for better tomorrow! Good Luck....
Where could I get the full Hong Leong Report? my own forecast is $22 to $24m profit for Mar quarter, and full years of $105 to $110m assuming rm:US $3.90 for 2016. It take time to market the new product and there are marketing costs involved. The saving from 440 workers as a result of automation might not safe as much this year as they would have to pay for redundancy. Max benefit from headcounts for sH16 is probably less than $3m. I would say all that saving would be eaten up by the initial marketing costs. The benefit might come next year.
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
newbie1234
880 posts
Posted by newbie1234 > 2016-03-17 17:52 | Report Abuse
Today last day entitle for dividen. Maybe thats y got support. Hope tomorrow dont gg