If wverybody is having the same thought, the market will not be fluctuate, so having different thinkings is good for the market, as well as opportunist
The sell down was quite overdone. We should be seeing a rebound from here at least on technical basis. PBV is 0.68 now at 0.925 price representing a 32% discount to book value (undervalue). If this is being pressed down on purpose to collect by major shareholders behind the scenes, maybe a takeover intention is possible then we are buying at huge discounted valuation.
guys here, let's do a recap... from RM1.20 to RM0.905 (lowest yesterday), if someone had big enough funds, he kept buying (especially when the price is below RM1.00), his average would be below RM1.00 based on his much heavier weightage for shares bought below RM1.00... and when the panic selling is over and after the release of upcoming quarterly reports indicate that the profit is still sound and intact, the price is moving upwards... and that is the time for this person to open a champagne and celebrate, thanks to those who did panic selling...
iloveshare128, lucky you and now its up. The result should be out the next 2 wks. I expect it to be still profitable and fundamentals intact but just how much more or less the profits will be. Going forward, we should see its financial earning to improve gradually in following quarters once the extra production capacity is operational. By then they should be actively taking orders now from the asean markets instead of middle east because the weakening RM should makes it attractive even for asean neighbours to import.
bingo everise. as i have always been saying, Q2 profit should remain intact and be more or less the same as Q1. I don't expect any huge drop in net profit. And you are right, Evergreen has a broad range of customers although middle east constitutes a big portion of their exports. in the latest meeting with RHB, the management also mentioned that they can move the exports to other Asian countries if middle east demand is softening... but the tradeoff is the ASP will be lower. anyway, since USD is still strong (above 4.00 now and I expect it to remain somewhere at this range in the next 2 years) and the internal restructure is fruiting more cost reduction + 2017 expansion, I would expect 2017 to perform better. I think you are also aware of this... afterall, Evergreen is not a good fit for short-term speculators, but more for mid/long-term investors who are willing to hold the shares up to a year or so... I think if you are buying at current price, 50-70% of return in one year is very likely...
Dear CUTLOST, since you are expecting a net loss in Q2, why are you still advocating a buy at 0.86? If Q2 really sees a net loss, the price would have dropped further, right? we need some logical sense to understand your comments...
I bought 3 bus load at bottom. This counter still has the wild card on hand which is the land worth approx 120m. Just need the owner to sell it to re-rate the stock.
Be careful , this stock always rise one two day, and drop for four five days. that how it drop from 1.50 until now. Only turning back is the quarter report. But it is a big gamble to wait for the report. Just my advice. As I have hold the share from March till now
Max's Lim, as i had mentioned earlier, 2016 full year net profit should be around the same as 2015, so don't expect a much better result in 2016. But I foresee 2017 will be a much better year for EVERGRN due to their expansion and internal restructuring projects. As I have always been saying, this is not a share for short-term speculation. I am prepared to hold it until 2017.
photon, MDF's raw material is rubber wood/log... rubber wood/log price has been low and actually this is good for Evergreen as the raw material cost will be low.
Chernhung, there are many websites that you can check the rubber wood price... one example: http://www.indiannaturalrubber.com/rubwoodprice.aspx you can see that the the price has been quite low at around 5200-5500/MT since last year until now.. and it is expected that low rubberwood price is to maintain at least for the next 2 years...
furthermore, you can read Evergreen's 2014 & 2015 annual reports. in the reports, it was mentioned clearly that rubber wood price (their major raw material) has been low... and another major raw material (resin glue) price has been very low too due to soft crude oil price...
that is just an indication / example. You can definitely google more websites... but in general as an indication, you can see that the price has been very stable over the last 2 years and many have expected that the price will remain more or less the same in the next 2 years too... so the raw material cost has been advantage for Evergrn and once 2017 expansion is in place, higher EPS is expected...
photon, MDF selling price is softer now, but since USD is stronger compared to Q1, net forex gain is expected (Q1 saw net forex loss).. so this can set off the lower selling price of MDF... I dun think it can ever hit as low as 60 sen... if you wanna wait, yes, please wait...
loveshare is very fundamental type investor. we all agree with the value of the stock. just think not worth to take risk to hold this counter which. can rise from 1.07 to 1.20 in half day. then drop back below 1.07 in the same day. Even the coming quarter good result. rise back to rm 1.00. i still making a loss. So i forced to let go. just an opinion. i think earlier thread also say this counter is manipulated. Last time i also not believe haha.
at current price u should be buying when they is so much pessimism just look at MBSB ever dick tom & harry are chasing it easy money to be next few mths
no hope for export account and expected share price to be continue the down trend again. Suggest not to hold as I had let go early this year although faced a RM2k loss within a month.
photon, stop talking like a loser. I have been saying that fundamentals remain strong and intact for Evergreen and even until today, my stance is still the same. So please mind your words... Evergreen's business is still on the right track and the company is poised to generate more profits in 2017... are these not strong fundamentals to look at? From what you replied in previous posts, I can deduce that you are a pure speculator and perhaps you are having some paper loss now (or already cut loss) and started to blame others.. grow up, please... investment is not for short-term.
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Posted by comebackisreal > 2016-08-03 21:18 | Report Abuse
Better sell first. Nice fundamental also fall like no tomorrow. If this quarter profit drop.
Hmm. .. will sell more red chili