everise, cash is king... i still have more bullets to top up if the share price drops more... DestinyT and William can say whatever they like... i dun give a damn... i will just keep buying.. i dun use all my fund to buy at one time... i slowly buy...
DarkLord0411, to invest with an averaging-down strategy, what I did was I did not buy with all my funds in a single session... and I will reserve funds when the price is dropping more... so to answer your questions, when it drops more and if the fundamental has not changed, just buy more with the remaining funds you have...
DarkLord, i started accumulating this share when it was about to turnaround (from making a loss to making a profit) back in 2013-14... and it was before the bonus issue of 1:2... i started buying when it was around 50-60 sen (before bonus issue).. i need to re-calculate my average now after i added more shares recently (after bonus issue)... i think my average is around 54-55sen (after bonus issue)...
yes, its unusal selling pressure for consecutive 7 working days…those whom still holding this counter, hold at your own risk. Friendly reminder. Might reach until 0.70 - 0.80
CUTLOST... 2014 price (around 42 sen @ lowest) was due to loss making in 4-5 consecutive quarters (oversupply from other ASEAN newly set-up (smaller) MDF players) bcoz 2009-10 were very good years for MDF players... so it attracted more players to set up new factories.. this had caused oversupply and pricing war.. this was told by the Group COO Mr Kuo JC over a phone conversation... and during 2012-14.. many of these smaller players had terminated their business as they can't survive.. and Evergreen (as the biggest player in ASEAN) then eat up these market shares and turnaround with fashion (thanks to strong USD too, and low resin/oil price, low rubber log price, etc)...
DestinyT, there is no problem if the hands behind purposely suppress the price down to 70-80, the only problem is when you do not have enough funds to average down... as I had mentioned earlier, if the fundamental has turned weak, then it is a big risk to average down.. but for fundamentally strong company like Evergreen (with much discount at low P/BV), there is limited risk for averaging down...
DarkLord, honestly speaking, last year i sold almost 70% of my shares which I accumulated around 2013-14 when the price hit RM2.50+... and now I started to buy back... this share hit RM2.56 highest (before bonus issue).. and if you adjust it to after bonus issue, highest is around RM1.71... and it has dropped so much from RM1.71.. and I started to buy back when it was below RM1.00... dun forget about the weak MYR now, and low crude oil price (raw material for resin), and then end-2016 to 2017 capacity expansion carried out by evergreen... for now, the weak price is short-termed...
they are not direct competitor.. HEVEA mainly sells particleboards and particleboard-related RTA furniture... although Evergreen also sells some particle boards, but their major sales is MDF..
based on my research, this year will still be fabulous for Evergreen (maybe flattish result as last year's, which is still very good)... let's wait and see...
although evergreen fundamental quite good, but share price keep dropping, i think it alr reflect the bad result on coming quarter. 2015 evergreen eps is 17.89. 2016 1st quarter eps is 2.68, expecting whole year eps is 10.72, growing rate decrease 40%. expecting eps decrease, how the share price will going up??
haha.. hotrod... keep calm... Yew Guan Jen must have forgotten about this... btw, Mr Yew, normally Q1 is around 21% of full year EPS due to festive seasons like CNY etc... and the total working days (due to short Feb) is also less thus less revenue and profit recognized.. but if u look at Q1 results, there is forex loss (compared to Q1 2015 - forex gain)... so overall "core business" net profit and profit margin has improved actually... anyway, i foresee Q2 profit margin will be less as the average selling price of MDF has dropped... but this will be offset at certain level by the stronger USD in Q2 (expect some forex gain)... after all, I expect a flattish 2016 as compared to 2015... so EPS should be around 12-13 sen this year... at current price 0.925, PE ratio is only around 7.1-7.7. And NA/share is RM1.37, sp P/BV is so much discounted at 0.675... (way lower than the standard 1.5 ratio).... so you should see why this share is undervalued...
iloveshare128, very well said and good sharing from u. I'm also very excited at current bargain price which I accumulated more. I believe EVERGRN's business is fundamentally strong with their ongoing expansion plans and upgrading in progress to increase their capacity. Some critics said now is economy downturn and expansion is not good play but I believe EVERGRN will be able to cope with more demands when more orders increase with weakening RM.
a sharing with fellow investors here.. recently RHB team met up with Evergreen's management and they would expect a flattish year for 2016 (same as what I expected before this report was out yesterday)... you can see that the management said the same thing - lower ASP for MDF but since the raw material cost is lower and with effective internal restructure to drive down production cost + expansion in 2017... it is still worth a buy... but you may need to hold till next year.. so i dun suggest short-term speculator to buy...
everise, we share the same views... but again, the improvement of earning may only come in late 2016 or in 2017... anyway, Cold Eye can hold a share for 3 years, why cant we hold it for 1 year? haha...
everise, if u noticed today's transaction, u would have seen a very funny trend which I believe was being manipulated... before the price dropped to a lower point (say from 0.95 to 0.945), the first transaction for 0.945 was only 100 share (minimum)... similar thing keep happening when the price dropped to another lower point.... from this trend, it is quite obvious that some hands are trying to suppress the price down... they sell their own shares and buy back... in summary: they sell relatively small amount of share at higher price.. but accumulate more shares at lower price.. so their average price is still low.. and they gain big when the price rebounds...
@iloveshare128...i everyday read your positive comment about this evergreen but i see everyday drop drop drop...i total paper lost almost 20%..should i believe u?
'I know current fundamental of the stock is good, when there are huge and consecutive selling pressure coming…it is wise to sell off 1st and buy back when the stock rebound. We have to learn when is to right time to let go sometimes. Its part of the investing life. Better sell off and avoid this selling pressure and safeguard your capital. Friendly reminder.
vincent27, investment has certain level of risk, of course... I am seeing this as a favourable chance to accumulate at discounted price but some may not think the same... after all, we should all be accountable for our own investment... but if you ask me, yes, i am very confident the current over-selling is not to be scared, but to be cherished... (Warren Buffet said, when most of the ppl are wary, it is time we should think in the reverse way and be greedy).. of course, this only applies to fundamentally good stocks and evergreen is definitely one of those...
DestinyT... your message is well noted, thanks... To me, as long as I still keep certain amount of cash (instead of buying all at one time), I can average my cost down if the price drops more... this is because we will never know what is the bottom price and as long as it is below its reasonable price (with margin of safety), i think i can still buy....
Let's recap so far, now PBV is 0.67 at 0.92 price now compared to PBV 0.75 at price 1.02 in just few days ago. So is there more bargain values and margin of safety there? Buying at 0.92 u gained another 11% more margin of safety than before. Strong selling pressure since 3 days ago from 1.00 fall steep to 0.92 is a huge discount. This is not encourage anyone to buy. Just a recap of strong selling for 4 days until now.
iloveshare128, I think u are doing quite well in the buying process. Value investing is an investment strategy where stocks are selected that trade for less than their intrinsic values. Value investors actively seek stocks they believe the market has undervalued.
alrd stop loss on 0.97. pandai pandai. save the time and money invest other counter better. this counter have no support at all.a lways free fall. if this quarter no good sure holland. can change name to ever red alrd.
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Posted by DarkLord0411 > 2016-08-02 10:44 | Report Abuse
iloveshare128, if further drop then how ?