Posted by titus > 2019-08-20 16:53 | Report Abuse

in my opinion, epf in because need to support the index. Most probably you will see epf selling announcement in few days time. Today it went down because index close at 1600. So no need support and sell some to adjust back their holding.....i guess only la..

Posted by risktransformer > 2019-08-20 17:01 | Report Abuse

If the KLCI were to start moving up from here (now at 1,602.75) then usually most stocks (including PCHEM) will follow to move up (hope this will be the case).

Posted by titus > 2019-08-21 09:45 | Report Abuse

If KLCI move up and market is bullish, of course overall bluechip will move together. So i guess, KLCI must break 1625 to show solid uptrend. Else, pchem will be just a float to use to support when it goes down 1600 and toss away when it is above water of 1600. Already 7.11. If ex date div....6.99? ....hehe....or already ex date?

Posted by risktransformer > 2019-08-21 09:56 | Report Abuse

Hehehe! Whether PCHEM move up or drop lower from my entry at RM7.16, I won't be too wrong since I'm just starting to collect bit by bit. I have spaced out my buying all the way down to RM6.40 (if ever that happens).

Posted by Ncm88 > 2019-08-21 09:57 | Report Abuse

Up 1 day down 7 days...

Posted by risktransformer > 2019-08-21 10:28 | Report Abuse

Later, when it reached the bottom already (let's say at RM6.40) then it will be down 1 day up 7 days...... hehehe!

Posted by risktransformer > 2019-08-21 16:53 | Report Abuse

Hehehe.... the whole day red, only down 1 sen (not bad).

Posted by dlau8899 > 2019-08-21 18:01 | Report Abuse

Waiting rm110 of dividend ,price up down up between 7.18 to 7.28

Posted by titus > 2019-08-21 19:21 | Report Abuse

Wah lau eh. China seem to mass produce everything. From steel to textile to everything la. Market will be flooded with surplus of supply. Jiak lat ..

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-petrochemical-analysis/chinas-petrochemical-expansion-to-overwhelm-japan-south-korea-producers-idUSKCN1VA0US

Posted by KooSan > 2019-08-21 22:58 | Report Abuse

Don't fret...we have EPF to support

Posted by Kayme > 2019-08-22 02:34 | Report Abuse

Petrochemicals 19 Aug 2019 | 21:30 UTC Houston

Americas petrochemicals outlook, w/c Aug 19


US OLEFINS
August propylene contract discussions are expected to start this week, according to trade participants. Direction was unclear, however, as the propylene spot market had been moving higher last week, because of falling inventory levels. But sources have also said the market remains well supplied. Meanwhile, US ethylene sources said uncertainty remained about the startup timeline of the closed cracker at ExxonMobil's Baytown, Texas, olefins complex.

US POLYMERS
Trade participants said producers were seeking increasing prices for polyethylene, but thin demand and ample supply were still keeping pricing pressure on the market. US polypropylene sources began discussing the pending monthly polymer-grade propylene contract, with at least one source anticipating that it will settle flat at 38 cents/lb. Negotiations should begin in earnest this week, with the settlement impacting spot PP pricing.

LATIN POLYETHYLENE
Latin America continues watching a downtrend in polyethylene pricing following the same trend in the US market, sources said. Pricing of HDPE film remains under pressure due to healthy availability and soft global demand. But some market participants said US-origin LDPE is less available for exports after the steam cracker was shut at the ExxonMobil Baytown olefins complex. The Brazilian polyethylene market is expected to start another week with pressure from international prices, which could continue triggering CFR prices to lower levels -- the lowest since S&P global Platts started its assessments. Currency exchange volatility is starting the week less favorable to the Real at Real 4/$1, putting less pressure on domestic prices, still unchanged. In Argentina, domestic prices were expected to be flat after a $50/mt increase last week. The polyethylene market has been under uncertainty after Dow Chemical's Bahia Blanca complex suffered an explosion in its ethylene cracker BB 2 plant in Dow Argentina at the end of June. The company said the complex would be offline until the end of the third quarter. The lack of availability was a driver for the hikes, but market sources said it was softened by the latest currency devaluation of around 30% last week after the recent presidential primary. General interest rates increased to 74%. Therefore, credit is almost unavailable, and activity is expected to slow down in the country.

LATIN POLYPROPYLENE
The Latin America polypropylene market is expected to start the week under continued pressure from international prices, sources said. Market participants will continue monitoring the US fluctuating polymer-grade propylene prices, as they influence prices for US PP, sources said. Macroeconomic concerns are also rising as currency depreciation in most Latin America countries against the US dollar continue to affect buying interest. One trader said that market participants had switched their thoughts to September order books, as August demand continued weak. Brazilian polypropylene homopolymer and co-polymer markets were unchanged, seeing less volatility in CFR prices lately.

US VINYLS
US export polyvinyl chloride prices were expected to remain in a range of $765-$775/mt FAS Houston this week, where producers settled August pricing, as market participants look toward September pricing negotiations. A deal for H2 September loading to India was heard done at $790-$800/mt FAS Houston, but market participants were skeptical of whether sluggish demand elsewhere would support that pricing level. Indian demand was seen strengthening as buyers were seeking to stock up on PVC volumes ahead of the end of the monsoon season. In addition, last week Asian producers announced fresh September offers up $30/mt from August levels, and one provided less volume than normal with a turnaround planned next month, and volumes designated for India sold out quickly. However, market sources noted that India's decision in July to lift anti-dumping duties on PVC from various countries, including Japan, the European Union, Indonesia and Malaysia, opens the door to more competition to supply that market. Last month, India reduced anti-dumping duties on material from some US producers but did not eliminate them. Upstream, market participants saw little change to ethylene dichloride and caustic soda pricing amid sluggish global demand.

Posted by Kayme > 2019-08-22 02:34 | Report Abuse

US AROMATICS
Prompt benzene prices in the US are expected to remain firm after an uptick in buy interest as sources anticipated tightness in the near term. Domestic production is expected to remain curtailed despite recent improvement in toluene conversion margins, while benzene demand was expected to remain firm. Demand was bolstered by talk of an outage downstream at Innova's facility at Triunfo. Details and confirmation were unavailable, but sources said the outage spurred 18,000-20,000 mt of styrene exports, and this had lent support to higher styrene prices. These dynamics were not expected to change, and styrene demand was expected to remain firm amid anticipated outages by multiple European producers. In toluene, prices were expected flat to lower as pricing continued to trace declining blend values. Lower toluene pricing was expected to support toluene conversion margins but was unlikely to lead to an increase in run rates. In xylenes, mixed xylenes pricing was expected to continue tracing blend values after a recent jump in pricing. Participants said that buy interest had increased ahead of planned maintenance by Suncor, though this was not confirmed at time of publication. Paraxylene was expected to see continued pressure from global length. Pricing was talked at $790-$800/mt FOB USG, though discussions were purely academic amid a dearth of spot activity.

Posted by Kayme > 2019-08-22 02:34 | Report Abuse

2019 2nd half Outlook: Global propylene supply to remain healthy on extra capacity, strong inventories

US inventories establish records in 2019
US-Europe arbitrage under pressure, but outlook mixed
Asia likely to stay stable-to-soft as a result of additional PDH plants

Global propylene markets will continue to see healthy supply availability in the second half of 2019 as fresh capacity comes online in Asia and US inventory levels remain strong.
As supply improved, alongside a slowdown in derivatives demand, global propylene spot prices fell this year from the multi-year highs seen in 2018, and the US market has taken the steepest dive.
US propylene supply has recovered in the first half of 2019, as production from propane dehydrogenation units has improved. This was in line with expectations for the front half of the year, and eventually led to record high inventory levels of 6.459 million barrels in March, according to the US Energy Information Administration.

Trade participants have said this is something they expect to continue for the remainder of the year.
The overall increase in inventories has pressured US propylene spot prices, leaving them well below 2018 levels. Polymer-grade propylene spot prices hit a low of 32 cents/lb ($705/mt) FD USG in late February before rebounding and then receding again to 32 cents/lb FD USG in mid-June.
US EXPORTS INCREASE, BUT ARBITRAGE TO EUROPE CHALLENGED IN H2
As supply length pushed spot prices to levels not seen since the end of 2016, US propylene exports have increased through the first four months of 2019, according to data from the US International Trade Commission. Volumes mainly headed to Latin America, and market participants have said they expect this to continue throughout 2019.

Europe has also seen an increase in shipments of US molecules as players anticipated supply tightness amid a heavy steam cracker turnaround schedule in the second quarter.
According to Eurostat data, imports from the US in the first four months of 2019 averaged 13,600 mt/month, compared with 920 mt/month in the same period in 2018. Meanwhile, imports reached an all-time high in February of 63,760 mt, the data show.
Since the beginning of 2019, Europe polymer grade propylene has traded at a premium to other regions before falling below $1,000/mt FD NWE, close to levels in Asia and narrowing the gap with the US.

With that recent relative weakness, market players have started questioning if arbitrage opportunities still exist, already anticipating a decline in imports from the US.
The premium of the European PGP spot price over its US equivalent was calculated at between $150/mt and $200/mt at the beginning of July, meaning the arbitrage was closed on paper.
"The arbitrage has been challenged, but from a volume perspective there is enough propylene for August," one European player said.
However, more planned maintenance is expected in Europe between August and October, meaning supply could turn tighter if the current trend continues.

ATTENTION IN ASIA TURNS TO NEW CAPACITY
Meanwhile, the Asian market will focus on startups, with more than 1.2 million mt/year of extra propylene production capacity expected to come online in China by H2.
This includes China's Fujian Meide Petrochemical's 660,000 mt/year PDH plant in September and Dongguan Juzhengyuan's 600,000 mt/year PDH plant by the end of H2. The additional capacity could reduce Chinese reliance on imported cargoes and exert pressure on spot price.
"We imported 600,000 mt of propylene feedstock for our two 500,000 mt/year polypropylene plants last year and will reduce the imports by 400,000 mt once our PDH plant is operating at full rate," said a company source at Fujian Meide Petrochemical.

As for the rest of Southeast Asia, Northeast Asia and South Korea, there will be less turnarounds in H2 compared with the front half of the year, ensuring a relatively stable supply of propylene, especially in the final three months of the year. Three steam crackers in the region with a total propylene capacity of over 1.5 million mt/year were heard to have plans for turnarounds in the current quarter. Chandra Asia, the major player in Indonesia, is expected to shut down its cracker for turnaround by August 1, while Formosa Petrochemical's No. 2 steam cracker unit will carry out scheduled maintenance by mid-August. Lotte Chemical is scheduled to shut its Daesan cracker by October 14.

Other market participants were keeping a close watch on the Malaysia's Petronas-Aramco RAPID project, which has experienced delays in the startup of the cracker and refinery. The complex's RFCC is now scheduled to produce 600,000 mt/year of propylene by the end of Q3, but is only due to produce on-spec propylene in Q4, according to a source with direct knowledge of the matter.

Posted by Kayme > 2019-08-22 02:35 | Report Abuse

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-petrochemical-analysis/chinas-petrochemical-expansion-to-overwhelm-japan-south-korea-producers-idUSKCN1VA0US

Posted by titus > 2019-08-22 08:02 | Report Abuse

will be further pressure on Pchem? if yes, very likely to break rm7. With oversupply and low average selling price, it definitely a double whammy for pchem. Similar to the steel industries and would it share the same faith as the steel counter? Time will tell.....

Posted by risktransformer > 2019-08-22 10:55 | Report Abuse

Don't worry too much about the long term future la (let the future takes care of itself)...... see, the price is RM7.20 now. Just take advantage of the current price movement la.

Posted by untong > 2019-08-22 13:20 | Report Abuse

no one knows how the price will go, suggest to buy abit now before the ex date for 11sen dividends, if after the ex-date the price drop excessively to below 7, just add more then you can get another set of dividends in 6months time

Posted by untong > 2019-08-22 13:26 | Report Abuse

as for over supply, soft demand etc i think there always had these kind of news every year, price of petrochemicals goes up and down. IMO for PCHEM the effect is not as severely impacted from these due to 70% of their Revenue comes from SEA where they are having the logistic advantage, 68% of revenue are Term customers means the effect of price will be more or less smoothen throughout the term contracts. Also there are so many different petrochemicals products, prices of some products soft doesnt mean all products price are low. For the most recent quarters, the price of O&D are very bad but it was somewhat mitigated by good price of F&M, F&M profits was 35% now become 50% of profits contributed.

Posted by untong > 2019-08-22 13:29 | Report Abuse

More so when RAPID commence its operations, they will have more flexibility on product mix ; e.g if the price of one petrochemicals product is not good, they will just sell more on other petrochemicals product that have better price.less concern on feedstocks supplies too.

Posted by risktransformer > 2019-08-22 16:33 | Report Abuse

Hehehe..... I "untong" a bit already.

Posted by bjaya > 2019-08-22 23:33 | Report Abuse

Unbreachable 7 i suppose. Time to get in .

Posted by kingb > 2019-08-23 12:26 | Report Abuse

These few days, the big force is not so aggressive to press the price.

Posted by ValarCuniasia > 2019-08-23 12:59 | Report Abuse

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-asia-petchems-demand-idUSKCN1VD099?utm_campaign=trueAnthem%3A+Trending+Content&utm_content=5d5f6f8257819f0001690366&utm_medium=trueAnthem&utm_source=facebook&fbclid=IwAR1kxXZSekb3XOsxM-c-Gj5rd4eHKou36iItZGPoerVFgTR26t_QlQWC77Y

Posted by ValarCuniasia > 2019-08-23 12:59 | Report Abuse

Good luck

Posted by risktransformer > 2019-08-23 13:27 | Report Abuse

Hope the price will drop lower so can buy some more.

Posted by titus > 2019-08-23 13:38 | Report Abuse

Looking at the chart in the reuters report, it seems like the average selling price has dropped 20% from January. This is before rapid come online by end of this year, Shell US petrochemical by 1H of next year and China petrochemical by 2H'20? Very similar to steel industry.

Posted by Chokhmah > 2019-08-23 13:39 | Report Abuse

i can't draw proper technical trend line for PCHEM, so weird

Posted by mobidick > 2019-08-23 16:14 | Report Abuse

Looking to follow lctitan -50% price. Oversupply issues and demand cuts keeping pressure on price. rm6 or rm5? who knows.. i guess i can remove pchem from watchlist for now.

Posted by Kayme > 2019-08-25 13:18 | Report Abuse

https://blogs.platts.com/2019/08/23/colombia-plastic-bag-consumption-hdpe/

Posted by stockraider > 2019-08-25 13:23 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by 7300 > 2019-08-25 13:29 | Report Abuse

lctitan....even as head also crushed in Indonesia,..........whats more if Pchem below 6,lctitan TP below Rm1.20

Posted by Kayme > 2019-08-25 13:33 | Report Abuse

Petrochemicals 22 Aug 2019 | 03:16 UTC Singapore

PetroChina Guangdong to build world's largest single-train paraxylene unit

Singapore — PetroChina Guangdong Petrochemical Company has selected Honeywell UOP to build the world's largest single-train paraxylene unit at its new integrated petrochemical complex in Jieyang, Guangdong province, Honeywell said in a statement Thursday.

The new light desorbent parex aromatics complex will be able to produce 2.6 million mt/year of PX, using sulfolane, isomar, tatoray and olefin removal processes.

The Chinese major will also use heavy oil processing technology from Honeywell UOP with an annual crude processing capacity of 20 million mt/year.

Other units include a 3.7 million mt/year hydrocracking unit as well as two continuous catalytic reforming platforming process units, or reformers, each with the capacity of 3 million mt/year, the statement said.

Trial operations at the refining complex are expected to start in October 2021, while trial operation at the petrochemical units will begin two months later, S&P Global Platts reported earlier.

The complex also includes a 1.2 million mt/year naphtha cracker and high density and low density polyethylene, polypropylene, styrene monomer and butadiene, Platts also reported previously.

Posted by Kayme > 2019-08-25 13:50 | Report Abuse

Petrochemicals 23 Aug 2019 | 16:45 UTC Singapore

China to impose 5% extra tariff on US butane, propane: State Council

Topic US-China Trade Tension

Singapore — China plans to impose 5% additional tariffs on imports of US butane and propane, the State Council's Tariff Commission said in a statement Friday on the Ministry of Finance website.

The tariff on US butane will take effect from September 1, while the tariff on US propane will take effect from December 15, the statement said. This takes the total tariff on each fuel to 31%, as China has already imposed 26% tariffs on them.

They are part of a new set of tariffs on $75 billion worth of US goods imports that will be implemented in two batches from September 1 and December 15, in retaliation for US tariffs on $300 billion of Chinese goods announced in August 15.

Posted by Kayme > 2019-08-25 13:55 | Report Abuse

Agriculture | LNG | Oil | Petrochemicals | Shipping 23 Aug 2019 | 22:13 UTC Washington

US to raise tariffs on $550 billion of Chinese imports by 5 percentage points: Trump

Washington — The US will raise the tariff on $250 billion worth of Chinese imports from 25% to 30% on October 1, and raise the current 10% tariff on another $300 billion of Chinese imports to 15% on September 1, President Trump tweeted late Friday.

"Sadly, past Administrations have allowed China to get so far ahead of Fair and Balanced Trade that it has become a great burden to the American Taxpayer," Trump tweeted. "As President, I can no longer allow this to happen!"

Trump's plan to raise these tariffs by five percentage points was in response to China's announcement early Friday that it planned to levy a 5% tariff on US crude imports from September 1, part of a new round of tariffs on $75 billion worth of US goods imports that will be implemented in two batches from September 1 and December 15.

Posted by titus > 2019-08-26 08:52 | Report Abuse

Wah lau, with everyone racing to build a bigger plant and produce world record capacity....and on the other end, many countries are going into greener initiative by reducing single-use plastic, this is really a double whammy for petrochemical industry. I wonder how long Pchem can defend. I be waiting for it to break RM7. Possible 6.50

Posted by risktransformer > 2019-08-26 11:36 | Report Abuse

Wah! Looks like today may break below RM7.00 !!

Posted by risktransformer > 2019-08-26 12:05 | Report Abuse

Managed to grab some at RM7.03 (main berani saja).

Posted by signalmw > 2019-08-26 12:07 | Report Abuse

Tp 6 coming

Posted by risktransformer > 2019-08-26 12:16 | Report Abuse

Hahaha! ....will try to sell b4 the RM6.00 TP.

Posted by 7300 > 2019-08-26 12:31 | Report Abuse

lctitan many frogs in the pan....break rm2 soon

Posted by titus > 2019-08-26 13:56 | Report Abuse

Major shutdown current Q, Low average selling price, oversupply, less demand.......with this 4 reason......really die standing............TP6? i park 6.50. Let me take the bullet for u 1st.......heheh.....

Posted by titus > 2019-08-26 14:38 | Report Abuse

Broken 7....if close below 7.....good luck a'dy

Posted by Chokhmah > 2019-08-26 14:39 | Report Abuse

below 7 already. oh yes!

Posted by mobidick > 2019-08-26 15:00 | Report Abuse

i grab 6.96, ready to throw. At this number im pretty safe for awhile. Few days ago delete of watchlist, today come back. What a ride.

Posted by mobidick > 2019-08-26 15:06 | Report Abuse

wah siao la, i got scared. throw out at 7.02, loss 0.1. God damn. I should never go in.

Posted by RainT > 2019-08-26 15:06 | Report Abuse

break 6

ceh

unable to queue to get it

no worry, sure can get below later on

Posted by Chokhmah > 2019-08-26 15:08 | Report Abuse

not sure, i want to cut loss first or not...

Posted by flexibt > 2019-08-26 15:16 | Report Abuse

may drops lower further.. EPF will keep selling and buy low

Posted by Chokhmah > 2019-08-26 15:18 | Report Abuse

may be i should wait dividend and then see how tomorrow...

Posted by risktransformer > 2019-08-26 15:36 | Report Abuse

EPF will start buying back after 4:00 p.m. because dividend is very important for EPF.