PETRONAS CHEMICALS GROUP BHD
KLSE (MYR): PCHEM (5183)
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Last Price
4.83
Today's Change
+0.26 (5.69%)
Day's Change
4.53 - 4.90
Trading Volume
18,448,200
Analysis
Price Target
A price target is an analyst's projection of a share's future price.
Average Target Price, Price Call and Upside/Downside here are derived from Price Targets in the past 6 months.
Last Price
4.83
Avg Target Price
6.42
Upside/Downside
+1.59 (32.92%)Price Call
5
SELL
14
HOLD
4
BUY
| Date | Open Price | Target Price | Upside/Downside | Price Call | Firm | View | Action |
|---|
Discussions
12 people like this. Showing 50 of 4,636 comments
Insiders trade already short before qr now tgey covering their positions', very unfair and unequal playing plaform
1 day ago
Local big govt funds already short before qr out now tgey covering their short positions where is tranparency
1 day ago
MiaoMiao7 question is, can it drop somemore? RM3.80 possible?
You need to wait for all IBs analyst new TP.
1 day ago
So basically they accumulated all the Forex paper loss of the 2019 US 9.8 billion loans for the Pengerang project, letting them out 1 shot at this quarter. Weird weird weird accounting.
22 hours ago
US fed rate cut all the way to 0 in the next 6-12 months. All the Forex paper loss will be reversed. So the future is bright, this is the bottom.
22 hours ago
To all data driven members.
On the latest report from Edge - positive outlook looks as below
Net loss RM789mill
Assumed no forex loss : profit estimated RM352mill
Looking into past data from Trading Economics (Pchem Net Income 2010 to 2024 Q3 ) current outlook still looks good. Reason I say this, forex losses are not realised and positive trend in long run ( it will be a slightly long wait ) for this to happen.
For a fear on paper loss vs industry outlook in 10 year horizon, I see it’s unjustified.
I forsee short term risk however long term reward could be expected if a positive reversal occurs.
For coming days / weeks I will still see how foreign / institutions are behaving ( current period still with trickling sell offs). Slight positive ticks are seen on technical charts on RSI, MACD but if this is short lived I don’t know.
For now I’m taking wait and see approach with partial 1/10 standby fund to be added in PetChem.
20 hours ago
Dow Jones
Dow Jones Industrial Average
43,214.27
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Nasdaq
NASDAQ Composite
18,840.50
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0.77%
16 hours ago
Whythefuss, agreed with you.
PChem is not alone. Because of hedging, many export based companies will face the same problem.
12 hours ago
If we exclude the forex loss, Pchem PAT is about 385M. EPS is 0.043c. I think this is consider low for Pchem operation. Taking into consideration that fertiliser is the only segment that perform and price has been stable due to China having banned export of their fertiliser to the world for this year. If they remove the ban and allowed export, even this segment will report reduce margin.
11 hours ago
*Looks like MIDF revised Target Price is in line with Mabel’s earlier estimate for PCHEM Pre QR*
Revised earnings estimates. Considering the lower earnings in 9MFY24, in tandem with the unrealised forex loss and expected softened demand for O&D and Specialties, we decrease our earnings forecasts for FY24-26 by -49%/-31%/-24% respectively. As such, we revised our target price of RM4.89 (previously RM7.54) and our call to NEUTRAL. Our new target price is based on pegging a PER of 18x to a revised EPS25 of 27.2sen. The PER is based on -1SD to PCG's 5-Y historical PER.
While we anticipate the headwinds for each segments to persist until end-year, we also expect that the overall PCG operations to remain stable. PCG also continues to be supported by the reliability of its plant operations. The recent extension of existing gas sales agreement for the supply of ethane and propane feedstocks at PC Olefin for the next 5 years, signals that PCG continues to uphold its operational and growth excellence. Additionally, the commissioning of its pentaerythritol plant in Sayakha, India, and the beginning of commercial operations in Pengerang Petrochemical Complex bode well on the demand trajectory for petrochemicals in the long run. Nonetheless, we exercise caution on the subsector, given the ongoing geopolitical tensions, volatile oil prices and unfavourable forex against the USD. We maintain our view that, while recovery for the subsector is slower than expected, it is nevertheless imminent.
Source: MIDF Research - 21 Nov 2024
This was Mabel’s earlier valuation before Mabel a reetry at RM 4.53..
With PCHEM EPS of MYR 0.25 (as per the latest data) and the PE ratio of 19.02:
PCHEM Fair Value Price = 0.25 ×19.02 = RM 4.76
Today it is trading between RM 4.53 and RM 4.64 with about 3 million shares traded as per writing..
10 hours ago
Hoho interesting le … P/B 0.89 … after latest QR loss … P/B is increased to 0.99 …..
10 hours ago
prettygal
So basically they accumulated all the Forex paper loss of the 2019 US 9.8 billion loans for the Pengerang project, letting them out 1 shot at this quarter. Weird weird weird accounting.
So so agree.
10 hours ago
Johnchew5 Hoho interesting le … P/B 0.89 … after latest QR loss … P/B is increased to 0.99 …..
21/11/2024 10:32 AM
Haha Sifu Mickey, don't be despaired...
Based on PCHEM latest QR, after latest QR loss, P/B is increased from 0.89 to 0.99.
The increase in the Price-to-Book (P/B) ratio despite the latest quarterly loss can be attributed to changes in the company's market capitalization and book value. Here's a simplified explanation:
Market Capitalization: The P/B ratio is calculated by dividing the market capitalization by the book value. If the market capitalization (stock price multiplied by the number of shares) remains relatively stable or decreases less than the book value, the P/B ratio can increase.
Book Value: The book value represents the net asset value of the company. A significant loss can reduce the book value, as it decreases the company's retained earnings. If the book value decreases more than the market capitalization, the P/B ratio will increase.
In PCHEM's case, the latest quarterly loss likely reduced the book value significantly. If the market capitalization did not decrease proportionally, the P/B ratio would increase from 0.89 to 0.99.
The latest quarterly loss for Petronas Chemicals Group Bhd (PCHEM) has mixed implications for shareholders like Mabel:
Negative Aspects:
First-Ever Loss: This is the first time PCHEM has reported a loss since its IPO, which can be concerning for shareholders.
Forex Losses: The significant unrealized foreign exchange losses have impacted the company's financial performance.
Dividend Impact: Lower profits might lead to reduced dividends, which could affect income-focused investors.
Positive Aspects:
Market Reaction: The current stock price already reflects the quarterly loss, suggesting that the market has priced in the bad news.
Future Reversal: If the US Federal Reserve cuts rates as expected, the forex losses could be reversed, potentially improving future financial results.
Operational Performance: Despite the financial loss, the operational performance of PCHEM's core business has improved, with higher plant utilization and sales volumes.
In summary, while the immediate financial results are not favorable, there are potential positive developments on the horizon that could benefit us in the long run.
To Our Success !
Meow
9 hours ago
Hoho Repost :
Hoho this is interesting… let’s see coming QR result ended September….an opportunity for Entry or CutWin ???
Referred Pchem :
> QR ended June 2024 :
Exchange Rate :
USD / MYR
Average Rate 4.7323
Closing Rate. 4.7205
>> 30/9/2024 4.12557
USD /MYR is depreciated by 12.85 %
>> As at 31/10/2024 4.37901
USD /MYR is depreciated by 7.47 %
>>> As at 8/11/2024 4.38259
Remember Do 3 Own : Own Homework, Own Analysis and Own DecisionS as only you know your Risk level .
DecisionS: is changed Upon new information, new facts n figures.
9 hours ago
USD to MYR Chart
-4.23%
(1Y)
US Dollar to Malaysian Ringgit
1 USD = 4.46817 MYR
Nov 21, 2024 at 03:11 UTC
9 hours ago
Economists predict that the Malaysian ringgit will strengthen to RM 3.80 per US dollar by the end of the year. I doubt this is possible with less than two months to go. However, if Malaysia continues to aim for a rate below RM 4, it may be possible to achieve with enough time. Furthermore, if the Fed lowers interest rates again, and the Middle East and Russia war ends, the Malaysian ringgit may resume its upward path. Will Pchem have to declare another forex loss? This is truly a catch-22 situation.
9 hours ago
so many commentators with strong fundamental background are promoting this stock. it is a good sign.
9 hours ago
Forex loss.. interest low = breakeven. Then, oil go down = material cost goes down = earn
9 hours ago
https://www.malaymail.com/news/malaysia/2024/11/20/federal-laws-take-precedence-in-sarawaks-oil-and-gas-dispute-experts-assert-video/157503
You can’t go back and forth, you know. An agreement is an agreement..
The federal government’s position on oil and gas (O&G) resources off Sarawak’s shores remains grounded in the Petroleum Development Act 1974 (PDA), which grants Petronas full ownership and exclusive rights to all petroleum resources in Malaysia, both onshore and offshore. If they take this position for Kelantan why make it soooo special for Sarawak?
8 hours ago
kl_guy look like the sell down have bottom out. Next stop rm5.00
21/11/2024 12:54 PM
Indeed KL!
PCHEM make a remarkable recovery climbing more than 6% today (went up as high as RM 4.9 today from opening RM 4.57) despite RM789 million loss this quarter. Essentially, they accumulated all the Forex paper losses from the 2019 US $9.8 billion loans for the Pengerang project and released them all at once this quarter, which is quite unusual accounting.
Those who sold from 5.50 to 4.50 might have engaged in insider trading, as the quarterly loss was announced, but insiders had already taken action weeks before the official announcement yesterday.
However, the good news is that the current price already reflects the quarterly loss. With the US Federal Reserve planning to cut rates to zero in the next 6-12 months, all the Forex paper losses will be reversed...
Thanks to Mabel's Marvelous Capital A, Mabel managed to catch her flight at RM 4.53 last week..
To Our Success !
Meow Meow Meow
7 hours ago
Local government funds rushing back to cover their short positions knowing that usd is coming back strongly from the low of 4.12 , it likely go back to 4.80+ before the year end and all the unrealistic forex papers lost will be reversed and profit will be rocket sky high, its time to corner the local funds and make them pay heavy, ff is acting
6 hours ago
How about the Sarawak state government issue ? Petchem got leg to stand on, 50/50 or lose ? Abang jo sound impossible to negotiate
5 hours ago
Look like Pchem is strong , call warrant also 10 million share . Big boy are going big on this counter.
4 hours ago
Bursa ni is a scam. Big loss company naik tapi profitable company turun. Sebab nilah FF semua lari dari bursa
4 hours ago
If QR loss can still spike so high in one day, meaning it can also fall hard in coming days. Beware ya...
3 hours ago
Small freebies by epf..but only few lucky ppl got..beware as the price will not increase anymore for some time
2 hours ago
Standby on pc, notebook, hp tomorrow. Just in case if many take opportunity to sell and take profit tomorrow. Some may be afraid to hold their shares as the price may stay low for a very along time. Bitcoin is way much faster.
2 hours ago
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Sslee
All this while Pchem is profitable because of protection by Petronas.
Now with 50:50 JV PPC Naptha feedstock based on market price can PPC be profitable?
1 day ago