The long expected significant profit contribution from plantation unit has not been shown on quarterly report. I beleive this will be shown in the quarterly result next month. I bet on it and thus will HOLD MKH much longer.
Bonus issue does not really create added value except increasing liquidity of the circulated shares. It is like dividing 1 big cake into two. You gain nothing except more smaller pieces for distribution to more people.
People has historically and habitually viewed bonus issue as a catalyst boosting share price up, thus most of the times, price will hike along announcement on bonus issue. Nevertheless, price will usually retreat prior the ex date or a short while after the ex date.
Bonus Issue rewards shareholders if dividend payment is higher. BI rewards because it broadens shareholders base therefore reducing volatility of the share price. QL is a good example. After each round of the Bonus Issue. its share price rose back RM3 to RM4 level. Those who owns QL shares will know this.
after trading hour, 11 March announced Bonus Issue 1 for 5, the price closed at 4.10, by logic, it should have 20% upside which is did hit 4.90+. Last entitlement for Bonus is 19 May. Anticipate to hit back to 4.5 to 4.6 level before Ex date
if the ffb output for 2014 is 271,681mt, and oil extraction rate (oer) is 21%, it can produce 57,000 mt of cpo. at the weighted avearge of cpo price rm2,600 in 2014. the revenue is 57,000 X 2,600 = rm148.2mil. from the past records, the profit margin is 38%, which is equivalent to profit before finance cost and tax is rm56,300K. After deduct finance cost around rm3,500K and 25% tax, the net profit for plantation sector is rm39,600K, eps is 11sen.
lcng123 : thks a lot for the above method to calculate profit from the FFB. How about kernel shell oil ? I read from somewhere that each tonne of FFB can provide significant amount of profit in the form of kernel oil. Do you know how to extract that figure ? Thks
the palm kernel extract rate is about 5% from ffb. with 271,681mt, it can produce 13,500mt of palm kernel. with the current price of palm kernel about rm1,500, it turn to revenue 13,500 X 1,500 = rm20mil. i would like to make correction on my previous comment, which is the finance cost for mkh's plantation sector is around rm12mil instead of rm3.5mil, so the estimate eps for plantation sector will be 9.5sen.
bonus issue will be ex on this thursday (15/05/14). those who wanna enjoy bonus have to buy in mkh tomorrow. i was thinking to buy in after ex bonus but before the latest financial result come out.
Posted by chewch > May 7, 2014 11:23 AM | Report Abuse
after trading hour, 11 March announced Bonus Issue 1 for 5, the price closed at 4.10, by logic, it should have 20% upside which is did hit 4.90+. Last entitlement for Bonus is 19 May. Anticipate to hit back to 4.5 to 4.6 level before Ex date
U r lucky selling some at 4.8. At 4.80, I was greedy aiming for 5.40. In fact I am now still greedy but would sell 1/3 first as you if I were given opportunity.
tonylim, u r lucky manage to sold at 4.80. r u buy back at 4.39? if no, i think you better act now before it fly to 5.40. many cases have happened to me. those who sold at higher price and thinking to buy at lower price will not manage to do that and come to the end they felt regret to sold it out at the first place.
bsng, not luck. you are right yourself, overwhelm by greed. lcng, you must be a lady, l c ng (surname), again not luck. I remember 480 was hovering there for many days. bsng seems same surname as you.
I made more on the warrants. got 20% left i think.
Both of you probably did not make a decision to profit take.
My 2014 rule, money in pocket is worth 2 in the bush.
TonyLim : you are right, I had plenty of opportunity to sell at 4.80 then. But I did not. Why ? As I thought recently there are many people shout loud on CPO and rushing into JT, TSH etc. MKH is a CPO producer too, so why not waiting for a little longer to join the optimistic crowd on CPO. On the other hand, Indo Rupiah is strengthening, which allows MKH to earn back the previous unrealized currency lost.
Simply put it : bonus ex + optimistic on CPO + currency gain + Q1 result = HOLD(another expression of Greed lah). He! He!
5.20 hmm. Not yet .. investment should be businesslike. At 5.2, market value of MKH will be 1.8bil. Plantation is worth 1.2bil. With the current fully-charged double engines, I bet the management would see opportunity to drive higher scale and growth. Stay tuned ..
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This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
Count3
57 posts
Posted by Count3 > 2014-04-29 20:54 | Report Abuse
Top up tomorrow.