Light at the end of the tunnel? Both Federal and Selangor governments had affirmed their commitment to settle negotiations after Hari Raya, following a meeting between Selangor Menteri Besar Mohamed Azmin Ali and Energy, Green Technology and Water Minister Datuk Seri Dr Maximus Ongkili in mid- June. Adding further pressure is the low water reserve margin in the state and delays in the construction of the Langat 2 water treatment plant. Also, Puncak has said that it may rescind the deal if the condition precedents are not met after Ramadhan. It has granted a sixth extension until 13 July to finalize the deal.
Attractive implied dividend yield of 37.5%. Assuming the deal will finally go through and the RM1/share special dividend or RM535m will be distributed, current share prices offers a very attractive yield of 37%. Currently, it is trading at 48% discount to latest BVPS of RM5.14 and 22% below fully diluted netcash per share of RM3.41 or RM1.83bn {RM221m end Mar 15 + RM1.56bn sales proceeds + RM45m proceeds from warrants and sukuk} based on enlarged shares of 535m.
Ripe for a triangle breakout. To recap, PUNCAK’s share price nosedived 38% from a high of RM3.74 (12 Nov) to a low of RM2.29 (15 Dec) before consolidating sideways to end at RM2.67 yesterday. The stock appears to be consolidating in a triangle pattern and poised for a breakout soon. A decisive breakout above RM2.73 (downtrend line) will spur prices to retest RM2.85 and (38.2% FR and 200-d SMA) zones. Pushing past RM2.85 would give us the confirmation to achieve our long term objective of RM3.01 (50% FR). Critical supports are located at RM2.58 (S1) and RM2.48 (S2). Cut loss at RM2.45.
Source: Hong Leong Investment Bank Research - 7 Jul 2015
What Hong Leong Investment Bank Research is very close to my calculation on Puncak NET cash after water assets disposal
'Currently, it is trading at 48% discount to latest BVPS of RM5.14 and 22% below fully diluted netcash per share of RM3.41 or RM1.83bn {RM221m end Mar 15 + RM1.56bn sales proceeds + RM45m proceeds from warrants and sukuk} based on enlarged shares of 535m'
Except it fail to take into account the sukuk loan debt, if converted into share, the debt will reduce in tandem, give rise to higher NET cash on fully diluted share volume. There, the net cash should be RM 3.68/fully diluted share instead of what Hong Leong value at RM 3.41/fully diluted share
Same question, If not good, why HL research and kenanga have higher TP vs if good why RHB-OSK have lower TP....Why Puncak trade at RM 3.70 last year, but trade lowe these year, Puncak yesterday down, but today up !!??
To answer you, the main root cause is Water Restructuring have yet to complete and have 6 time delay already causing Uncertainty toward completion of the deal and special dividend payout is conditional upon the completion of these deal.
If the deadlock can be resolve these time, then Puncak is due to reflect its true value.
Nobody can be 100% whether water restructuring can be seal or need further delay. All depend on Azmin (state), DPM, Ongkili, Attorney Fed) to work together to resolve final outstanding issue and update provisional clause in the supplementary agreement to be sign in order to fulfill last condition precedent in the Puncak SPA. We all here is closely monitor news from various RELIABLE source (bernama, theedegedaily, malaysiainsider, selangorku, sinar etc), to update about the progress of the deal.
But if you like to get entertain by clown Roger123 and his gang on his 100% contradicting 'insider news', then, you better prepare to pay the price of it. However, the clown shows is relatively cheap, worth to pay 1sen-10sen, depend on their daily clown show performance and if you like to pay, remember to ask these clown to give you their 'e-mail address' so that you can channel your clown ticket price to them, so long you treat it for charity contribution :D)
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
SinGor
4,931 posts
Posted by SinGor > 2015-07-06 20:31 | Report Abuse
Tomolo everybody selling Jaks including me