Unlikely to reach RM 6.00 soon. First the management need to set a clear policy on dividend. Then they need to articulate clearly the future growth of this company and put growth plan in place. Only then we can have a richer valuation. RM 6.00 is only PE 10, which is possible. To get PE 10 however, the management need to manage perception better. 1st of all, commit to a dividend policy.
I concur with Chonghai. I think they have been quite stingy to share profit with shareholders. Contrast that with Liihen who are absolutely generous. Shareholders like to keep shares for long time if there is a steady stream of dividends.
$3.50 done. Insiders buying. Resutls probably very good. All the sales stuff must know the result - no need to be accurate. So they probably tell their father, mother, sisters, uncles and friends to buy.
Discount Cash Flow Analysis Valuation on LATITUD 8/20/2014
Table 6.1: Assumptions Current stock price $3.58 Share outstanding (Mil) 87,208 This year FCF (Avg last 2 years) $35,266 Next year's FCF (mil) $37,029 Growth for the next 5 and 10 years 5.0% 3% Teminal growth rate, g 3.00% Discount rate, R 10.0%
Table 6.2: DCFA PV of FCFF of core operations $565,000 Non-operating cash $103,319 Investment in Properties $0 Investment in Associates $19,785 Debts ($98,533) PV of FCFE $589,571 Less minority interest ($141,497) 24.00% FCFE $448,074 Number of shares 87208 FCF per share $5.14 MOS 30%
Intrinsic Value of LATITUD is RM 5.14, potential gain of 44%
Using a Reverse engineering DCF calculation shows that at the current price, the market is expecting Latitud business to grow at a compaound annual rate of 0.8% for the rest of its economic life. That means its earnings will be increase each year by 0.8% forever. So do you expect Latitud business to grow at that rate considering our inflation is ~4%?
Tks for the insightful valuation, Coolio. Now I can sleep better having gone in below 3.50. I just sit back and relax and watch my little nest eggs grow.
No problem Jeff, i was using average 2 yrs free cash flow. If i use only last year fcf itself, the intrinsic value is even higher. I'm lucky to hold this counter quiet some time now. Anyway, lets hope we can make more from this counter
The problem is whether the current eps is a one off item or sustainable. I just went in at 3.55. If they have flat earning also I am satisfied d. Only worried next year make lesser.
Hi coolio, I am new here. Thanks for the insight into Latitude. Only problem the directors seems to be too tight fisted (stingy) with the profits and not sharing with the shareholders. If only they declare a % to be given as div it will help the stock.
People think the management is stingy because referring to today price of RM3+. Please take note that the share price was below RM1 when they declare 3cents and 6cents of dividend in the past. The dividend yield was reasonable back then.
Actually the management had already rewarded shareholders via buying back the remaining shares of its subsidiaries. All earning will be all accrued to Malaysia holding from January onwards rather than share with Singapore. Now the onwner has only Latitude Bhd, they would have to focus on it and so reward them also. I think the propect is good, no worry :)
Gd run latitude. 1st target achieved and offload 1/3 at 3.49 Next 1/3 will be rm 3.99 and which I believe coming soon Last batch will be rm 4.49 I love furniture counter like hevea wa n latitude which give return of 100% within a yrs. No matter how ppl criticize u, I love yr low PE, profitable n most important healthy yoy profit grow. Keep it on.... H2 will be property counter show Booz a lot of rushing to buy before GST KICK IN. GOB, L&G, Asiapac, Hohup, mpcorp, Mkland - my top favorite ( so sad - missed oskprop n pjdev )
Lii Hen reported good quarter result (US contributed 80% of its revenue). I think Latitude (>90% export to US) should not be far behind. Enjoy the ride :)
yes the earning did not improved as much as expected due to the riot, but it still have positive growth compared to last year, dont be so sad chshzhd :)
2014 2013 2014 2013 1 Revenue 142,759 124,417 651,025 493,687 2 Profit/(loss) before tax 10,283 9,352 71,867 35,658 3 Profit/(loss) for the period 8,631 8,230 64,333 32,046 4 Profit/(loss) attributable to ordinary equity holders of the parent 8,681 5,949 55,008 24,366 5 Basic earnings/(loss) per share (Subunit) 8.93 6.12 56.59 25.07
Full year earning has doubled, the share price has also doubled (from RM1+ to RM3+) within the year, seasonally 2H is stronger, Im remained optimistic :)
loss of profit during the riot is covered by insurance under business interruption claims. hope Latitude will received the compensation and reports stronger profit by next quarter.
edwarttt - loss of profit covered but is loss of production covered? Riots will surely have some effect but perhaps latitud is performing fantastic still!
from what i read from result, look like profit not able achieve as previous Q is due to malaysia plant occur lost. riot affect the result, but not all.
Based on analysis, it is worth at least 4.00 if and only if the revenue and profit margin is sustainable. The reason why it is so undervalued, i think, is because of the sudden rise in earnings over the past 2 years. 100% per year. People don't believe it is sustainable. That's why people.panic when they see the quarter result that records lower than estimated profit (after discounting in the riot). So, this is really a high risk high return situation.
No risk, no gain. Good earnings growth, good management.upside looks good.every tree takes time to grow,then flower, then fruit. Mac D crossover, ADX+1 crossed into + region,accumulation time.CCI approaching 100.No turning back.Hee hee its funny...sorry not many bullets to shoot..got only 10 lots n not cheap.Should have got more,when it dipped.....FEAR of RISK...HAHa. I too m only human. Now can escape,or wait n pick gain. Here I like this TREE....I wait lah
Finally Latitude is front runner after waited for about 6 mths plus. During Mar, i short list 3 potential stock ( dsonic, inari and latitude ) to compete because their price almost the same and all have good run and upside potential. Dsonic have strong run in early stage but slow down lately. Inari chasing slowly and crossed rm 3. Latitude pick up on last 2 months and now over take both of them. Have strong confidence latitude will cross rm 4 very soon. On the other hand, time to liquid 70% of latitude when crossed rm 4.1 and balance wait until 4.99
At closing price of 3.72, enterprice value, EV = 319mil. The TTM EBIT = 70.4mil. Earning yeild, EY = 22%, which is very good. If we flip the norminator&denominator of EY we got EV/ EBIT = 4.53, indicating Latitude is still very cheap. How cheap? According to WarranB, if you happen to encounter EV/EBIT<7, you probably found a good deal! You wanna but Latitude from me at EV/ EBIT = 4++? At your dream la.
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This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
naughtygirl
261 posts
Posted by naughtygirl > 2014-08-18 08:47 | Report Abuse
3.50 soon