Posted by james70 > 2014-04-18 09:59 | Report Abuse

RHB issued a new report this morning commenting on the Langat 2 water treatment win. It is interesting to note that the fair value of RM0.96 is derived conservatively since it only considers the value of the plantation land at 0.7x the book value (RM123m). If the market value of RM250m is used in the calculation, the fair value of AZRB when fully diluted is RM1.24. Without the warrants dilution the fair value is RM1.44. So there is still much upside to AZRB especially once the concession earnings kick in and the plantation arm start to bear fruits.

Posted by james70 > 2014-04-18 10:01 | Report Abuse

fatt168, that is another angle but as you can read from the above, the target price of RM0.96 is rather conservative. So AZRB is not overvalued.

Posted by gohku > 2014-04-18 10:26 | Report Abuse

opportunity to accumulate more as price has not move up yet,
too many good news coming like faisal university payout coming.
i think rhb rm 0.96 target too conservative

Posted by Investeye > 2014-04-18 10:43 | Report Abuse

I believe RM0.96 is a fair price, expected the AZRB price will up until next week before the closing for closing of OR. The weak part for AZRB is it low % profit and hopefully the profit margin is increased accordingly but time will tell.

Posted by james70 > 2014-04-18 11:09 | Report Abuse

Their tax rate on their profit paid to the IRB is way too high due to the company structure. It is in the region of 40-45%. This should normalize soon.

Posted by ryan7642 > 2014-04-18 11:44 | Report Abuse

the mother not yet over value la still got space to boost still chill;) tp for short term will be 0.95-1.00:)

Posted by warrenbuffett0830 > 2014-04-18 15:00 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by james70 > 2014-04-18 15:01 | Report Abuse

AZRB-or Target Price is RM0.42. There is ~ 20+% upside from the current price.

Posted by valuezorro > 2014-04-18 21:01 | Report Abuse

To those concentrating on water treatment, please don't forget that AZRB will get the money back from Al-Faisal University. If contract worth RM1B but only 30% AZRB means only roughly 30% contract worth, then plus minus to get profit margin, it is going to be really small, about RM30 Mil to its bottom line.

If you consider that AZRB will get the money from Al-Faisal to the tune of RM 80 Mil, how would it affect its share price?! GO LONG AZRB. Potential more than current price. Expecting the research houses to be correct, at least RM1.13 to get the fair value.

Posted by fortunebullz > 2014-04-18 21:10 | Report Abuse

Azrb just gone through par value reduction to clear their bad debts tied to Arab deal gone wrong! So upside to reach rm1 is not that hard! Azrb has plenty of projects worth 2 billions excluding next few months on their concession highway for recurring income!

Posted by fortunebullz > 2014-04-18 21:11 | Report Abuse

Yes! You are right!

Posted by ryan7642 > Apr 18, 2014 11:44 AM | Report Abuse

the mother not yet over value la still got space to boost still chill;) tp for short term will be 0.95-1.00:)

Posted by gohku > 2014-04-19 00:29 | Report Abuse

The aifaisal settlement will be a great story for azrb.
Go for it.
Should be running up soon.

Posted by nordimohd > 2014-04-19 07:37 | Report Abuse

just wonder despite all the so many projects all the years AZRB shows poor financial result, instead it has to issue bond, reduce paid up and so on....i don't think it is a good company to invest in.

Posted by james70 > 2014-04-19 08:57 | Report Abuse

AZRB had one poor financial year because of cost over runs on the Al Faisal university project. Many companies that ventured to the Middle East were adversely affected. Now AZRB is solely focusing on Malaysia projects, concession assets and their plantation in Kalimantan.

The par value reduction is to clean up the accumulated losses in its balance sheet (due to the Al Faisal Uni project). As for raising of bonds to the tune of RM1b, this is tied up with the Elevated Klang Valley Expressway in which they have to fork out 80% of debt to achieve financial close.

2015 will mark their turnaround in which their plantation assets will start to bear fruits and work on their concession assets would already have started. Come 2018, they would start collecting toll, billing the Msian govt for the university teaching hospital and plantation assets are now nearing the matured phase. This share is for keeps. So don't miss the boat while it is still cheap.

Posted by fortunebullz > 2014-04-19 09:11 | Report Abuse

Arab deal gone wrong is 4 year old story! Settelement is now court matter! Azrb already did par value reduction to clear rubbish from its accounts! Its the best course of action, taken bond is wrong action! So everything reset for growth! Beside this umbo link counter need to make big money or else!

Posted by sttb123 > 2014-04-19 09:14 | Report Abuse

Azrb sama dgn mas

Posted by fortunebullz > 2014-04-19 09:31 | Report Abuse

RHB Research is maintaining its Buy call on Ahmad Zaki Resources Bhd (AZRB) with a fair value of RM1.47 after it won a suit over a contract dispute in Saudi Arabia and was awarded RM79.6mil.

The research house said on Tuesday that due to improved sentiment post the 13th General Election, it saw sustained interest in small-cap construction stocks.

“We also like Ahmad Zaki’s defensive non-construction businesses such as bunkering and plantations,” it said.

To recap, Paris-based International arbitrator, International Chamber of Commerce, ordered Alfaisal University/King Faisal Foundation to pay AZRB RM79.6mil over the latter’s claims in an arbitration case involving a construction contract for Phases 1 & 2 of Alfaisal University Campus in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia.





RHB Research described the award as good news for AZRB as the company could now write back the entire amount as an exceptional gain, which will translate into 29 sen per share.

“When the contract ended in dispute in FY10, AZRB bit the bullet by making full provisions for additional costs incurred by the project amounting to RM93.6mil in its FY10 accounts. This resulted in a record net loss of RM61.6mil for that year.

“We maintain our estimates as we exclude one-off items in our forecasts and await full settlement of the award. Assuming the award is paid, the RM79.6mil cash inflow will significantly reduce AZRB’s net debt and gearing of RM109.5mil and 0.52 times respectively as at March 31, 2013 to RM29.9mil and 0.1 times,” said RHB Research.

The research house said it liked AZRB’s strong earnings visibility, backed by its RM2.2bil-strong outstanding construction orderbook as well as two lucrative concessions with a minimum project IRR of 8% in the RM413mil International Islamic University Malaysia (IIUM) campus in Kuantan now under construction, and the RM1.55bil East Klang Valley Expressway (EKVE), which is pending financial close.

“Upon financial close, the EKVE will generate about RM1.5bil worth of internal construction works for AZRB, as well as substantially boost its outstanding construction orderbook to RM3.7bil,” it said

Posted by tonylim > 2014-04-19 12:09 | Report Abuse

When is last day listing of OR

Posted by Investeye > 2014-04-19 15:08 | Report Abuse

http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed-companies/company-announcements/1580057
The last accepatnce and payment date is : 30th Apr 2014 at 5pm
Last date for sale of provisional Rights share with Warrants is on : 22nd Apr 2014 at 5pm
I expect the price may down a little bit and it may a good time to accumulate for longer term.

Posted by james70 > 2014-04-19 16:56 | Report Abuse

I foresee either the price of the mother share come down and that AZRB-or remain unchanged or the AZRB-or climb in price while the mother share remain unchanged. I prefer the latter.

Posted by tonylim > 2014-04-19 16:59 | Report Abuse

Normally mother shares will go down

Posted by fortunebullz > 2014-04-19 17:12 | Report Abuse

Of course will go down but these 2 weeks will be pushed up!

Posted by tonylim > 2014-04-19 17:19 | Report Abuse

Lower TERP better or higher better.

Posted by fortunebullz > 2014-04-19 17:26 | Report Abuse

Tony! Can you share your views! We never get anything from you so far except giving!

Posted by Investeye > 2014-04-19 17:43 | Report Abuse

http://www.nanyang.com/node/615085?tid=462
RHB just rated AZRB at rm0.83 upgraded from rm0.72

Posted by tonylim > 2014-04-19 17:49 | Report Abuse

What to contribute ... anything you want to know at a glance is listed above by clicking the title of this thread save for top 30 shareholders and perhaps other minute info. Many forumers ignorant of the TTM trailing 12 months financial. Many here willingly give their views.. why am I the exception. I am not at the big screen most of time difficult to type.

If the rights issue is underwritten by IBs I suspect a lower TERP is better for them. I may be wrong.

For those in touch with me do watch out on knm as the relevant dates gets near. Almost all the time share price will bee throw down... MO pump and dump. Look at jaya tiara prior to the ex bonus issue.

I may be wrong guys. But I am buying the or.

Posted by fortunebullz > 2014-04-19 18:10 | Report Abuse

Investeye! Rhb latest target pricecis 96 cents! How come nanyang different!

Posted by Investeye > 2014-04-19 18:24 | Report Abuse

May be not rated by RHB and by other research house. I checked the newspaper, the infor in the web is correct..

Posted by ryan7642 > 2014-04-20 09:57 | Report Abuse

refer to those projects from nanyang link the company hv quite high book value project in hand after add in incoming Langat 2 which might make the group busy n show good result for another 2-3 yrs so no harm holding at 0.75-0.85 lvl i think:)

Posted by stockraider > 2014-04-20 10:09 | Report Abuse

RAIDER ALSO LIKE AZRB....IT IS ONE OF THE LAGGARD STOCK IN RAIDER'S NAPSHOT 40 PORTFOLIO LOH....!!

WHAT IS SO GOOD OF AZRB ?

1) LARGE ORDER BOOKS RELATIVE TO ITS SHARE MARKET CAP
2) GOOD STEADY RETURN FROM OIL & GAS BUSINESS
3) GOOD EXPOSURE TO PLANTATION.
4) STEADY FIXED RETURN ON RENTAL OF HOSPITAL AND UNIVERSITY TO THE GOVT.
5) EKVE HIGHWAY CONCESSION....BTW THIS IS ONE OF THE LONGEST CONCESSION...THE OTHER IS WEST COAST HIGHWAY.

AZRB...IS A POTENT....BIG RETURN FORMULA....!!
A SMALL CAP....BIG PROSPECT = BIG POTENTIAL RETURN GOING FWD

Posted by Investeye > 2014-04-20 10:49 | Report Abuse

When EKVE and plantation start to contribute, then this will definately push AZRB to next level.

Posted by stockraider > 2014-04-20 16:09 | Report Abuse

RAIDER ALSO LIKE AZRB....IT IS ONE OF THE LAGGARD STOCK IN RAIDER'S NAPSHOT 40 PORTFOLIO LOH....!!

WHAT IS SO GOOD OF AZRB ?

1) LARGE ORDER BOOKS RELATIVE TO ITS SHARE MARKET CAP
2) GOOD STEADY RETURN FROM OIL & GAS BUSINESS
3) GOOD EXPOSURE TO PLANTATION.
4) STEADY FIXED RETURN ON RENTAL OF HOSPITAL AND UNIVERSITY TO THE GOVT.
5) EKVE HIGHWAY CONCESSION....BTW THIS IS ONE OF THE LONGEST CONCESSION...THE OTHER IS WEST COAST HIGHWAY.

AZRB...IS A POTENT....BIG RETURN FORMULA....!!
A SMALL CAP....BIG PROSPECT = BIG POTENTIAL RETURN GOING FWD

AT THE CURRENT PRICE OF RM O.795 THERE IS ALOT OF UPSIDE OPPORTUNITY FOR AZEB.

INVESTOR JUST NEED TO BE LITTLE BIT PATIENT & WAIT FOR THE POTENTIAL COMING HARVEST

Posted by fortunebullz > 2014-04-20 18:57 | Report Abuse

Raider! Read you were from Investlah! Welcome! Looks like you also see the extreme undervalue of Azrb! Genius think alike!

Posted by AhMoi > 2014-04-21 07:30 | Report Abuse

James70.. What exactly was the theoretical ex price for AZRB?

Posted by tonylim > 2014-04-21 08:32 | Report Abuse

Morning all

Posted by splendid_ignorance > 2014-04-21 09:17 | Report Abuse

Ahmoi..if assume cum-rights price of 0.85, theoretical ex price is (0.85+(6/8*0.5))/(1+6/8)= 0.70. Theoretical rights value without warrants is around 0.15. Given each rights will come with 0.5 warrant, the theoretical price of 0.5 warrant as it stands is 0.18 and 1 warrant is 0.36.

Posted by AhMoi > 2014-04-21 09:45 | Report Abuse

Slendid... Thanks

But think the ex rights without warrant is 0.70 - 0.50 = 0.20 isnt it?

Posted by splendid_ignorance > 2014-04-21 10:06 | Report Abuse

ahmoi..theoretically, your wealth before, in the interim period and after rights issue should be the same:
Before : 1 share worth 0.85 + 0.375 cash = 1.225
Interim period : 1 share worth 0.70 + 0.375 cash + x = 1.225
After : 1.75 shares worth 0.70 = 1.225

Solve for x = 0.15
So the value of the rights is 0.15

Posted by fortunebullz > 2014-04-21 10:10 | Report Abuse

Soon shot up soon! Before OR expire!

Posted by splendid_ignorance > 2014-04-21 10:14 | Report Abuse

fortune any other counter to follow?

Posted by AhMoi > 2014-04-21 10:18 | Report Abuse

@_@ if without warrant.. OR + 0.50 = 0.70 yes? no? @_@

Posted by james70 > 2014-04-21 10:37 | Report Abuse

Ah Moi, AZRB has already ex-rights. So there will not be any further gap down in the share price once the new rights shares are listed.

- The closing price on 26Mar, the date before the ex-rights date = RM0.845
- Rights is at RM0.500, theoretical ex-price cum rights is (RM0.845*8+RM0.500*6)/14 = RM.697. That was the price on 27Mar.
- Since 27Mar, the sentiment to buy into the shares and the rights has been encouraging with the speculation they would win the Langat2 project. AZRB's share price has risen to RM0.800. If it stays there, then that is the listing price of your rights share on 16May. If there is movement in the price, that will be the new price. In actual fact, one should buy more AZRB-or at RM0.34 and pay RM0.50 for the conversion(before end of this month - pls check with your remisier) as what you get is one mother share and half a warrant. If the price of the mother share remains the same, you will stand to gain a handsome return as the warrants will be in the money and could list around RM0.25-RM0.30, a gain of RM0.25*0.5+RM0.80-RM0.34-RM0.50=RM0.085

Posted by AhMoi > 2014-04-21 11:24 | Report Abuse

@-@ james70 Thanks

Think the conversion price of the warrant is 0.70, so to be in the money the warrant should be 0.10 only being 0.80 - 0.70, yes? no?

Posted by ryan7642 > 2014-04-21 11:33 | Report Abuse

the free warrant confirm d ar??i thought it just propose only n haven circulate to shareholders yet rite?

Posted by james70 > 2014-04-21 11:34 | Report Abuse

Taking into account the exercise price of 70c and the long conversion period of 10 years, Black Scholes pricing has the warrant priced around RM0.25-RM0.30. Could be more you never know.

Posted by AhMoi > 2014-04-21 11:38 | Report Abuse

OK got it. Below 0.10 to be in the money, but could be more.

Do you think the mother price will later drop when the market is flooded with the rights shares??

Posted by james70 > 2014-04-21 11:44 | Report Abuse

Anything can happen. It could drop like what you said. Or AZRB may announce a large contract win and the share price rockets. We will know soon.

Posted by AhMoi > 2014-04-21 11:54 | Report Abuse

Ya.

Anyway what is that rather unnerving par value reduction thingy??? Does it mean if the mother price remains at 0.80, after the par value reduction the price will be 0.40??

Else, 0.80 -->1.60 ie 0.80 x 2 due to par value halved...

Posted by splendid_ignorance > 2014-04-21 11:59 | Report Abuse

theoretically the price has been adjusted after taking into account the dilution. that said, market might stil react when the shares are listed. as it stands azrb already has a huge order book. even if they do not get any new contracts, the existing ones will lead to quite significant earnings in the next year onwards.

par value reduction is a balance sheet treatment. The price will not drop any further. It is done to offset the accumulated losses the company recognised earlier. par value is just the value of the shares in the book. does not reflect market value at all. e.g. companies normally have a share with par value of 1.00 and can easily trade in market for RM2-3 or vice versa.

Posted by AhMoi > 2014-04-21 12:05 | Report Abuse

But.. is a company with par value of 1.00 being traded at 3.00 the same as a company with par value of 0.25 being traded at 3.00? yes? no?

To compare, if the 2nd company has a par value at 1.00 the price would be 12.00 @-@