Nordi must hv seen it all ........my humble advice is never fall in love with any stk....no emotions. Companies are run by people with great leadership...over time, people change, company values change, price also change....I learned a lot abt this stk just by reading thru the forum......thankyou for helping me to make my decision easier.
4u2c, tq for the advice...what i really mean is gadang with good fundamental, nice price movement, coming 4cent dividend and still a little bit under value (i.e less than rm2.00 with TP rm3)it is irresistible not to buy on the deep... (anyway my overall average is just rm1.25)
if compare gadang vs azrb it is almost apple to apple comparison but gadang on the faster track...probably soon be at fair value for disposal
my humble opinion azrb with good fundamental and future potential is worth to monitor and once the market direction is blue sky clear (i.e either way up or down) then it time to make a buying in unless u have very very deep pocket u can start the buying now for 3 to 4 years safe keeping...
my expectation azrb would be rm2 to rm3 probably in 3 years time based on gross estimation of rm8bil to rm10bil future projects
good news from cnbc....Market spikes amid reports of Russia pullback in Ukraine...but to me have to look on the mkt sustainability before buying or just probably small exit window
Nordi....its a slow counter but lately showing, positive energy . Coming P and L cld be good.i will buy in bit by bit.i bought 40 cts the warrants,High price..Close 37.5 ...lost 6.25pct already...no worries.....will see how it goes...if it drops more, i just average..I feel the mum will go for abv 1,08 . Now start slowiy, then P n L announced..... ....boom .....new high.....15 trading days to mth end- 87 cts ? I hope , i dont hv to chase the price...
Luckily , it spiked up......It cld hv been red ................the US vs Iraq predicament .Anything can happen over the weekend in Iraq.....I hope for peace because senseless killings is bad for karma (bad term to use -since its like a religious dispute)
probably Russian has learnt enough lesson n red hot war news likely subside for a while...next is to see the direction of eu-us sanction against Russia, i believe the sooner the sanction unwinding the better cause it will have great impact on putting off most the hazes n noises around the world n most important to show bskl the clear part to up side direction....n by then it time to slowly accumulate azrb.....
4u2c, i believe every world leaders are fully aware that they need to work together (such as USA QE, Abianomic etc) ensuring world economic stability cause any misalignment will have major direct impact to all....that why what i believe bskl is having strong up side bias and any weakness n deep due to small local events such as "demo turun" etc is good buying opportunity....
all in all don’t be disappointed if one has bought azrb at higher price cause it has good fundamental story line n great future potential, give it 2 to 3 years to grow to become the big oak tree as Calvin has said it before...
just to share.... in 2012 price 58 to 62 cent gadang cheaper than azrb...gadang story line stated at least me don't care about it.... in 2013 price 75 to 85 cent gadang story line getting harder n louder...i started to understand n realise the future potential, started buying @ average price 83 cent for over rm 500k......all around me said i am crazy buying at the top of the hill after telling them the story line in 2014 after 1+year gadang move to aound rm1.70....they still say i am crazy for not selling n take profit....
my humble opinion (lesson learn) probably applicable to azrb..... 1. buying with clear good reason ; there always be noise around n don't ignore but listen make logical conclusion as a guide... 2. selling with also clear good reason else one may regret later.....
I first heard of Gadang from OSK Iskandar Top Boss about their impending Launch of Capital City 21. Before I could look into price already run away.
And he recommended GSB later. I was skeptical about GSB as they were building Condos which I think there are already too many in Iskandar. However, when I visited "G Residence" I was surprised to see their Unique Designer Modern "G Residences". They have a SKY BRIDGE joining both Apt at the Top With Roof Garden. I think GSB also should do well like Gadang.
AZRB is still a construction company without a major recurring income. It had clearly demonstrated execution risks in the past and the EPS for 2013 is nothing to shout aloud. The recent corporate exercise of capital reduction cum rights etc will DILUTE FUTURE EPS.
Yes there is BIG POTENTIAL projects for AZRB but the flipside is it can also become a BIG LIABILITY. WHY?
-Oil pam biz may continue to bleed. Does AZRN employ experienced and competent plantation managers running the 18,500 acres. Frankly 18,500 is relatively small. If u want to buy AZRB for planation biz, better buy a focused plantation company that sells palm oil and timber as plantation coy prices had corrected a fair bit and may even correct further. So where does this give to AZRB? More losses?
- BIG Construction Projects does not guarantee BIG profits. It can even give BIG losses. The 1.55 Billion EKVE and the Greater KL MRT 1.7 Billion project construction margins may possibly disappoint as interest rate , material cost, labor costs may possibly be be much higher in the next couple of years.
-Good likelihood of EKVE highway making losses in the initial years just like SILK HIGHWAY. Just ask yourself...Why 50 years TOLL concession period if toll collection biz is very good?
- How much margins can it earn from other construction projects? 5%, lower or slightly higher?
-Does AZRB have major recurring income? Unfortunately the answer is no but supporters would quickly say that EKVE will give good TOLL profits from the day the EKVE toll highway is completed. I very much doubt so as the 50 years concession period is indicating that profits may be slow to come around.
In view of the above, it is difficult to justify higher PE multiple for AZRB unless it can really prove otherwise in the coming quarters. I welcome any forumers who staunchly support AZRB to come forward to share their point of views
i came to AZRB forum just to read what SerifahSelinder post. really funny. similarly went to MudaJaya forum to read what MataKuda post. equally funny. i never buy any of these stocks . wakakakaaaa
Azrb with all the projects that they get, and if manage by right people should easily be above 1.50. The projects are still coming in but the same people are running the show, you expect it fly???
honestly so far i dont have full n clear picture on azrb n waiting how the last financial clean up exercise result would be n the next coming 2 qtr result at least 1 qtr before buying in.....i dont mine to buy at the hill top like what i did wth gadang but i need to be sure that i will be on the firm ground before puting most my money into azrb.....at least that my small game plan....probably by then azrb would be around 80cent to 90 cent...it ok to me becuse by then the rest future potential will just coming in add on the azrb value......in this case i am looking at least 1 to 2 years after the buying n for sure i will be adding in on the deep along the way....
Calvin, wth regard to property my 2 cent view n opinion at the moment mostly if not all they are at the claud 9 level....just to share i bought small apartment in 2002 rm76,800 n now around rm200k....i.e the property mkt has been on bull cycle for around 12 years...may be some of us still remember dana harta created to do the property fire sale all over msia in 1990++ after property bubble burst....it could happen again just like what happen in US.....probably now is cooling off period for a while same goes in general to property co n venture...for now i dont have clear picture where the property mkt is heading....but still have to slowly following the progress same to plantation stock n industry...
the real stock mover are stockist n fund manager......at least that the way i look at it.....i dont think all of us wth out proper coordination be able to push up stock except 5 to 10 crnt....n those movers are pro based on stock fundamental...
Yes, property cycle has been going on for quite a good while in KL & Penang. But for Iskandar it is only in its 4th year of upcycle.
JB has crashed for 12 years from 1997 - 2009. So according to the Pendulum Swing Principle there will be 8 more years of upside for Iskandar properties.
And for 10 long years there were very little building going on in Iskandar. So demand still exceed supply by a wide margin. At any given day there are more people looking to rent houses than available ones in Iskandar.
And with the launch of Rapid in Pengerang there is a great shortage of houses to meet increasing demand.
After the Toll & VEP problems subside - The Iskandar Boom Continues...
Calvin, TQ for sharing...if that is the case may be some day i will be buying property in JB..but too far form KL...may be just may be small apartment for leisure cum long term small investment.....for jalan makan cari makan, side seeing JB-Singapore....
i3i2i1, Calvin n who ever want to know more about gadang clear up ward direction(forecast)vs azrb... u can see potential EPS big jump from FY2012 (0.06) to FY2015 (0.33) n FY2016 (0.49)....but not in azrb FY2012 (0.039) to FY2015 (0.062).....
sunztzhe, 1. good income from palm oil potentially from 2016 on ward ??(new bull cycle ??? currently in bear cycle) 2. EKVE only completed by 2017, good imcome ???? 3. Hospital in kuantan good imcome ???? rm1.5bil for next 10 years ???
*** to me still a lot of haze.... I believe at least if these 3 potential income can be firm up then there would be clear direction a head for buying in decision...
any idea n help to firm up these 3 projects income....
For AZRB the Palm fruit bunches should generate RM44 Millions a year now.
As to Gadang & Guocoland prices have already spiked upward. So better don't chase. Price already factored in the positives.
Both "G" have run up in prices. The only "G" which is yet to run is GSB
Great Stock Berhad will start running soon. Market has not yet factored in "G Residences" Whopping RM60 Millions Profit for this 10 cent shares. So there is Fantastic Room For Price Rise!
sunztzhe n Calvin, TQ for sharing your opinion....that is why i just focus on gadang n monitoring azrb closely cause any haze clearance would have major impact on azrb direction trend (up or down ward) but looking at future potential could be up ward...so have to wait these to firm up my understanding... 1. financial clean up result 2. qtr report this may be able provide some answer....
anyway i have said earlier i believe azrb currently is cleaning up itself from all sort of crabs in getting ready for future mega ventures n potentially be the shining star in pre pru 14 rally in 2016/17.....?????
some how it was miss-out form the analysis.... any idea... cause if that is true then EPS for FY2014 would be (3.5+9)cent and FY2015 would be (6.2+9)cent....azrb fair vaue would be around rm1.20...???
or
it is push back ward to be later included by azrb due to certain reason as it from foreign (indon) income...i.e it is belong to associate co to azrb
or
will not appear in azrb n will only appear in the azrb associate co
****this is also dont think included ------------------------------------------------------------------------ Subsequent to our announcement made on 3 September 2010 in relation to the Contract Agreement with Alfaisal University (“AFU”) for Alfaisal University Campus Development Project Phase 1 & 2 in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia (“the Contract”), the Board of Directors of Ahmad Zaki Resources Berhad (“AZRB” or “the Company”) is pleased to announce that the Company has on 29 July 2013 received notification that the Sole Arbitrator in ICC Arbitration case No. 17768/ND/MCP, AZRB Vs AFU and King Faisal Foundation (“KFF”) pertaining to the Contract (“the Arbitration”) has issued his final judgement and award. In the aforesaid final judgement and award, the Sole Arbitrator had ordered AFU and KFF to jointly and severally pay to AZRB the total amount of SAR 92,570,300 in respect of claims made by the Company in the Arbitration. The Company through its Legal Counsels in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia is now taking all necessary steps to execute the aforesaid judgement and award.
This announcement is dated 29 July 2013. ------------------------------------------------------------------------
but FY2013 eps is just 1.2sen....dono why...in general it look like as if the foreign income is not included/factored in the analysis n good thing to wonder why n what the impact on azrb price .... it could be hidden gem...
and technical indicators (RSI,MACD n stochastic) have turned bullish n require 2 to 3 weeks for the up ward trend confirmation ....
Aiya, cutting the story short, AZRB has good value to be had la.
We all rendezvous here in AZRB not because we are brought in by the stars but because of one thing and one thing only ie AZRB is the ultimate laggard when all the other counters have already gone up.
Ah Moi, You can go ahead to think some more and take all the time you will need. You still have time to think some more on AZRB.
It is very clear to me that AZRB does not have any major recurring income for FY 2014 and FY 2015. Forecast YR 2014 results is very uninspiring. As such AZRB current market price had run ahead of its fundamentals.
The EKVE highway when completed will most likely incur RECURRING LOSS FOR A GOOD NUMBER OF YEARS JUST LIKE THE SILK HIGHWAY. Hence the need for 50 years concession. The likely recurring loss in future years will be a drain on its future cashflow and a dampener on its future profits and EPS. Moreover there wont be that much BIG PROJECTS that AZRB can secure in the future years once the major infrastructure projects had been awarded and had been executed.
Top management knows this and that is the main reason it bought the plantation biz in Indonesia and ventured into Saudi Arabia ( and got into severe problems with the Saudis). AZRB consequently faced severe cash flow problems and that necessitate the recent corporate exercise to get new cash inflow into the company. Indonesia plantation is still a drag on its earnings.
However the EKVE toll highway may incur recurring loss much longer than forecasted but most i3 investors here are very optimistic that the EKVE highway can make money from day one.
That's why research house is calling for a HOLD and this means SELL!!
FY2013 result : 1. ENGINEERING AND CONSTRUCTION DIVISION (main positive factor) The E&C Division continued to be the major contributor to the Group’s results by recording revenue of RM524 million (2012: RM597 million); a decrease of 12% over the previous year. The decrease is due to completion and delivery of five (5) projects during the year and also due to new projects that have yet to reach the peak of its completion progress. The profit before tax increased to RM49.1 million (2012: RM42.8 million) as a result of differences in the project mix and stages of completion of the various projects of the Group in 2012 and 2013.
2.OIL & GAS DIVISION (main positive factor) The Oil & Gas Division recorded a slight decrease in revenue for the year 2013 compared to the previous year. For 2013, revenue was RM53.7 million, a decrease of 22.7% from the RM69.5 million recorded in 2012. However, the profit before tax were not impacted by the decrease of revenue during the year. The Division continues to contribute significantly to the bottom line of the Group. Profit before tax contribution was RM20.2 million (2012: RM20.3 million).
3.PLANTATION DIVISION (main negative factor) The Division contributed revenue of RM4.1 million (2012: RM2.5 million) and a loss before taxation of RM27.1 million (2012: RM12.4 million). The losses are generally resulted from unrealised foreign exchange and higher operational costs. We are confident that the contributions from this Division will improve over the next few years as the trees become more mature.
4. PROPERTY DEVELOPMENT DIVISION The Division recorded an improvement of revenue of RM11.5 million, an increase of 105% (2012: RM5.6 million). In tandem with the increase of revenue, profit before tax also increased to RM3.9 million (2012: RM1.3 million). The revenue bounced back as compared to prior year due to the completion of the current phases that were launched in 2011.
My opinion : 1.looking at the FY2013 above and with current palm oil bearish cycle likely it will contributing main negative result for few years to come
2. construction still likely to be the main contributor to the bottom line and near future EPS performance likely mainly driven by the construction future performance....
4. oil & gas likely at the top flattening curve for some time to come as recurring income...
Nordimohd, Yes it look very hazy for 2013 performance as this gives a paltry EPS of only 2 cents/share for FY 2013 performance. With the recent corporate exercise of 6 rights + 3 warrants for every 8 AZRB shares, the revised EPS for 2013 is only 1.143 cents/share( I assume zero warrants conversion)
Current share price= 72 cents PE= 63.
Is the price of 72 cents in the money or out of money?
fortunebullz, Yes spend 0.5 Billion to get recurring income but also spend 1.55 Billion on EKVE to get recurring loss. Will that be still positive or negative? My take is the positive will be overwhelmed by the negatives for a good number of years.
So r u going to invest some more in AZRB or think otherwise and go for instacom instead?? I am going for instacom as it is a very undervalued blue chip company that makes BIG $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$
fortunebullz, EKVE will be a liability in the first couple of years but the transformation of EKVE into asset that gives recurring profits will take quite a while!! So EKVE will be a liability FIRST COUPLE OF YEARS OR MAYBE LONGER and slowly turn into asset as future development will take long time! So I will invest heavy in instacom now and once the BIG profits are realized , I can come back n maybe look into AZRB later. If AZRB still not performing then, there will be other future fundamental stocks!!
Project in progress as per FY2013 report 1.MY Rapid Transit Package V6 & S6 Contract Value RM 607 million Balance of contract value RM 403 million
2.PNB Hotel & Office Towers, Jalan Sultan Ismail Contract Value RM 673 million Balance of contract value RM 644 million
3.IIUM Teaching Hospital, Kuantan, Pahang Contract Value RM 413 million Balance of contract value RM 287 million
4.East Coast Expressway Phase 2 - Package 2 Contract Value RM 145 million Balance of contract value RM 43 million
5.Universiti Teknologi Malaysia (“UTM”)Jalan Semarak, Kuala Lumpur Contract Value RM 172 million Balance of contract value RM 168 million
6.Royal Malaysian Police Air Wing Unit,Subang Contract Value RM 162 million Balance of contract value RM 158 million
7.Langat 2 Water Treatment Plant Contract Value RM 298* million Balance of contract value RM 298* million * Based on 30% shareholding in the JV
This suggest that good future EPS will probably require higher construction activity than current one (2X ???) i.e azrb at least require extra rm1bil more construction revenue in FY2014 on ward.... Will that be achievable with additional contract such as :
1.Langat 2 Water Treatment Plant Contract Value RM 298* million Balance of contract value RM 298* million * Based on 30% shareholding in the JV
2. EKVE Contract Value RM 1+ billion
3.THE PROPOSED CONSTRUCTION AND COMPLETION OF 2 BLOCKS OF OFFICE BUILDINGS, RETAILS SPACES AND EXTERNAL WORKS ON PLOTS Z1 AND Z2, 3 LEVELS OF BASEMENT PARKING AND ACCESS ROAD ON PLOTS Z1, Z2, Z3 AND Z4; AND UPGRADING WORKS TO JALAN ALAMANDA WITH ASSOCIATED INFRASTRUCTURES AND LANDSCAPING WORKS AT PRECINCT 1, WILAYAH PERSEKUTUAN PUTRAJAYA Contract Value RM 185,1 million
yet to be seen..... need to see the result at least in FY 2014 1 quarter report....
Nordimohd, Just look at the BIG PICTURE.With the recent rights cum warrants exercise over, AZRB will have to at least double their project value intake just to maintain same EPS.
AZRB has to pay interest on BONDS issued. That means cash outflow. Traffic in the first few years of EKVE will not be good. So EKVE net net will incur recurring losses for first few years. So EKVE will be a liability from the Net Profits and Cash Flow generation point of view for the first few years.
Dont worry next few qtr results will tell...be patient and relax...anyway each individual project has it own economic cycle some very probably just 1 or 2 years and others probably more than 20 years
My opinion, azrb potentially having liability for some time on the long run project but only one EKVE....along the way likely gaining some of mega projects which my gross estimation around rm8 bil to rm10bil max to rm20bil...
so my conclusion : 1. azrb is a long play stock probably 3 to 5 years range...investing require patient 2. buying in on major weakness no price chasing 3. understanding detail qtr reports is critical for investing
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
4u2c
3,553 posts
Posted by 4u2c > 2014-08-09 01:11 | Report Abuse
Nordi must hv seen it all ........my humble advice is never fall in love with any stk....no emotions. Companies are run by people with great leadership...over time, people change, company values change, price also change....I learned a lot abt this stk just by reading thru the forum......thankyou for helping me to make my decision easier.