a factory in US does not seems to be very exciting as the cost is high over there. Also the vaccination rate over there is not very high as people are sceptical. Not sure if it is worth it.
I may be wrong but I'm guessing the world isn't out of the woods yet. In the US, cases are rising among the unvaccinated. Australia and Russia are also seeing a surge in Delta infections. India and Indonesia might see another wave.
Top 4 glove still making billions of profits next year and ASP already stabilized next year **************************************************************
have you seen the China's gloves manufacturing output?
"industry insiders said that the supply chain transformation is increasingly tilting toward China, with or without the outbreak."
With Harta CEO announcing that the extraordinary period of super earnings coming to an end to a stabilised normalised ASP in Calendar YEar Q1 2022 , the market reacted very negatively like end game for glove makers . It is important to rationally look at what has been the growth rates for the big4 glove makers from pre pandemic FY2019 to FY2023 . THe FY 2019 PATs were Actual numbers while FY 2023 are consensus projected PATs . I have computed the PATs for the big 4 and estimate their CAGRs .
Topglove
FY 2019 Actual PAT 371 millions FY 2023 Projected PAT 2203 millions
Total Growth for 4 years = 2203/371 = 593 % CAGR = 56 %
Hartalega
FY 2019 Actual PAT 434 millions FY 223 Projected PAT 1493 millions
Total Growth for 4 years = 1493/434 = 344 %
CAGR = 36 %
Kossan
FY 2019 Actual PAT 224 millions FY 2023 Projected PAT 670 millions
Total growth for 4 years 670/224 = 299 %
CAGR = 32 %
Supermx
FY 2019 Actual PAT 124 millions FY 2023 Projected PAT 1056 millions
Total Growth for 4 years = 1056/ 124 = 852 %
CAGR = 71 %
Summary
The above computations show that the big 4 have an earning growths of 299 % to 852 % and CAGRS of 32 % to 71 % . These growths are unprecedented and enabled the big 4 to increase their capacities without any borrowings and also paying fat dividends besides being nett cash in FY 2023 . Based on MAARGA projections , the growth rates during post pandemic will be between 12 to 15 % . The big 4 glove makers have obviously benefited from the good growth rates for the 4 years even though I intentionally linearise them such that it is a continuous growth rather than the Actual Bell Curve growth which actually are much higher mathematically . The FY 2023 PAT projections are from the IBs with ASP assumptions from US 30 to 35 for Nitrile gloves. THe blended ASPs are different for different Glove makers depending on their Nitrile to Latex ratios . In my opinion , the growth rates for the big 4 from 2019 to 2023 can rival top semicon or technology companies in Malaysia . The big 4 has been profitable for the last 20 years even before pandemic and growing with double digits . Malaysia has been proud to be the number 1 suppliers of medical gloves in the world for the last 20 years . It is with sadness that the big four have different fate compared with the semicon sectors which are definitely not world leaders . I hope that the market and investors will take a more rational look at the real numbers .
I welcome any civilised comments .
Disclaimer : THe above write up is not a buy or sell call . It is intended for sharing for glove investors .
just some senseless panic from some falsely imagined connection between TopGlove the true real glove manufacturer & TopGloveS Investment the fake investment company
just wait for lwc to make a public statement to correct the false perception associating TopGlove the true real glove manufacturer & TopGloveS Investment the fake investment company
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
raymond96
13 posts
Posted by raymond96 > 2021-09-09 13:34 | Report Abuse
myinvestor can u let me know how to get SUPERMAX SHORT POSITION Info