Thplant liabilities 1300m… be careful with high debt company . But the recent profit not bad. Good luck Kevin. Kmloong netcash plus high dividend . Texchem looking good and fishery business may become new Cash generate machine …. Tingtingtingitng money money come
It is extremely easy to recommend cyclical stocks. Low PE - Dump. Negative earnings - Buy the dump. That's literally it. And perhaps follow commodities trend
Sushi King business is very good (super good, need to wait for seat). Chemical business also very good. (No more MCO, can run at 100% capacity) LifeScience business also very good. (No more MCO) Myammar fisheries business back to normal. (Political more stable compare to last quarter) Property is at strategic location. (waiting for revaluation) Property market value is much much higher than book value. NTA RM2.00 124mil share only. Market cap RM111mil.
Last time Chicken Rice Shop sold to Japanese buyer for RM200mil. Don't you think Sushi King will worth at least RM300mil.
Hextar bought a lot of chemical company at high price. If Hextar want to acquired Texchem Chemical business (Industry chemical + Life Science), I think minimum it will offer RM300mil.
So, TEXCHEM is worth RM300m + RM300m = RM600m.
RM600mil / 125mil unit of share = RM4.80 per share.
Give it a superb durian runtuh discount of 50%, still worth RM2.40 minimum.
Many people ask me why TEXCHEM proposed to purchase the 28% share at RM102.2 mil, how they arrive at this valuation.
The answer is very simple, this RM102.2mil is the original investment amount that Yoshinoya Group invested for the 28% in 7 years ago.
Back to 2015, Texchem has sold 28% share of Sushi King to Yoshinoya Group at RM102.2mil. 7 years later, Texchem buy back the 28% share at RM102.2mil.
7 years ago, Sushi King have 89 outlet. 7 years later (after pandemic), Sushi King has 121 outlet.
7 years ago, Sushi King is very profitable, can generate RM15-20mil profit per year. Recent this two years, due to Covid Pandemic, the Sushi King business is very bad, loss a lot of money. However, if assume everything can back to normal, the Sushi King should be able to generate RM25-30mil profit per year.
RM30mil divided 121 outlet, we are talking about RM250,000 per outlet per year, or equivalent to RM20k profit per outlet per month.
Currently Texchem have 70.35% of SushiKing. If 28% is worth RM102.2mil, then the 70.35% is worth RM256 mil.
Texchem market capital is RM163mil.
Texchem have Chemical business, Food business, Restaurant business, Life Science business.
Just a restaurant segment is worth RM256 mil, the whole group should worth minimum RM500mil.
28% of Sushi King for 102 mil is equivalent to paying 3 mil for each Sushi King outlet. Given Sushi King mediocre sales, it is much cheaper for texchem to open new outlets instead of buying up the 28% stake.
ROI for the 102 mil is only 3% based on the best of the past 5 years Sushi King profit after tax 2+(2016 to 2020) This is the justification provided for the purchase price. Not convincing
Don't treat it like a purchase, just treat it as a repayment of borrowing.
Treat it like 7 years ago Texchem pledge 28% to Yoshinoya and borrow RM102mil from them, and 7 years later Texchem payback the RM102mil and get back the 28% share.
During this 7 years, you have take the money and expand the business from 89 outlet to 121 outlet. And due to pandemic, Yoshinoya group personally badly hitted by the crisis, and now they want Texchem to payback the RM102mil, so they return back the share.
Yup, from a investor perspective, I agreed this transaction is lack of transparent.
But, from business perspective, Sushi King business is getting very good recently, especially after the lockdown on June/July/Aug, all the mall / restaurant traffic is surge dramatically.
Back to 7-8 years ago, Japanese food is mostly consumed by chinese (90% customer is chinese). But nowadays, many malay can accept japanese food, and chinese have gradually move to higher range japanese food restaurant.
Hence, nowadays you can see Sushi King customer majority is Malay. Compare to other japaneses restaurant, Sushi king price is at affordable level, 1 small family (2 parent and 2 kid) go to eat until full the price can be within RM80-100.
You can wait for the quarter result, I believe sure you can see the F&B business segment start to generate nice profit for Q4 2021.
Clearly minority shareholders should lodge a police report against the Japanese ceo for handing out RM102m cash to Yoshinoya for a 28% stake in a struggling biz.
Net debt of the company will double to RM200m. This is a cornered stock, kept artificially at a relatively high price of RM1.30. When the banker leaves, the fall will be severe. Banker normally leaves when there are other big buyers coming in or when the fundamentals of the company deteriorate too much, relative to the prevailing market price. Don’t be lulled by the seeming stability of its share price at the current elevated level.
90% of the debt is due less than 1 year and for trade finance purpose. The fact that these are provided on an unsecured basis means Texchem is well rated by FIs. The long term debt has been declining to a negligible level.
With the small capital of 130mil, Texchem has not only never stop growing but indulge itself in capital intensive business which require high R&D expenditure and long gestation period like green polymer and aqua culture
For 3 quarters at the height of covid 19, the company did well in selling face shields and polymer products, making RM22m net profits in total. As the covid fades, the past 2 quarters have seen dismal results. The company now struggles to make any net profits. The high depreciation charge is partly offset by its need to continually spend on capex. With breakeven results, net cash flow generated is around RM5m to RM10m. It will take the company at least 20 years to pay down its RM200m net debt. Good luck.
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
calvintaneng
56,539 posts
Posted by calvintaneng > 2021-12-17 11:33 | Report Abuse
glove chemical hit by glut
sell Texchem and buy Thplant now
thplant will overtake Texchem