Sharing out news I found. Let's sama2 discuss if we should invest in aluminium counters...
LME aluminium to rebound to USD 1787
7 hours 2 minutes agohits: 150
Reuters reported that LME aluminum may rebound to USD 1,787 per tonne as it has found a support at USD 1,760.
The support is provided by the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement on the rise from the Feb. 3 low of USD 1,671.25 to the April 11 high of USD 1,902.50.
It has triggered a rebound towards the 50% retracement at USD 1,787. A break below this support may cause a limited loss to USD 1,751, the 76.4% Fibonacci retracement on the rise from the March 19 low of USD 1,704.25 to USD 1,902.50.
Didn't know this until now!!! ( aluminium related) Aiyoyoyo! Hehehehe!
Malaysian aluminium can maker gets offer from new suitor Toyota Tsusho
2 months 62 day 7 hours 43 minutes agohits: 1038
Reuters reported that Japan's Toyota Tsusho Corporatipon has made an offer to purchase 51% of Malaysia's Kian Joo Can Factory Bhd bidding more on a per share basis than a rival Malaysian firm and sending Kian Joo's stock soaring.
The trading arm of the Toyota Group is offering 3.74 ringgit per share for the stake in the aluminium can maker, valuing the deal at some MYR 847.3 million.
That represents a 13% premium to MYR 3.30 per share offer from Aspire Insight Sdn Bhd, a local private company. In contrast to Toyota Tsusho, Aspire wants to take over Kian Joo in a deal worth MYR 1.46 billion.
Sounds like good news for the aluminium industry. The last few para. Of the article reads:
"Billionaire fund manager Kerr Nielsen, who runs Platinum Asset Management, is also a believer in aluminium.
In a recent fund update, Mr Nielsen said a bigger Chinese focus on returns on capital, pollution abatement, an export ban in Indonesia and reduced alumina supply following the closure of Rio’s Gove refinery were all set to slow capacity growth.
“The industry itself has seen demand growth of 6 to 7 per cent per annum and any slowing of capacity additions could see a strong move in the metals price.”
Deutsche Bank is forecasting prices will rise to $US3000 a tonne again by 2020."
The article:
Aluminium’s day dawns as iron ore dims MATT CHAMBERS THE AUSTRALIAN MAY 12, 2014 12:00AM
The Rio Tinto CEO tells Alan Kohler and Robert Gottliebsen about his plans to expand the company beyond the mining sector. Aluminium free cash flow. Source: TheAustralian < PrevNext > •• <> KGB Interview: Sam Walsh Gladstone aluminium smelter - metal ind... RIO Tinto’s much-maligned aluminium business could be a surprise saving grace for the miner as iron ore prices soften, with the company’s cost-cutting drive set to produce strong cashflows and boost the chance of big returns to shareholders.
The turnaround in aluminium, which Deutsche Bank is forecasting will contribute $US2 billion ($2.1bn) of annual free cashflow to Rio by 2017, comes as chief executive Sam Walsh predicts an end to the Chinese overcapacity that has hobbled the industry in recent years.
While there is no hope of recovering the $US25bn of value wiped from the aluminium unit’s book value since Rio paid $US40bn in cash for Alcan just before the global financial crisis, some investors are positioning themselves for a rebound.
“We have shareholders on our portfolio because they believe our aluminium business is going to be very prospective,” Mr Walsh told the company’s annual meeting in Melbourne last week. “That’s their call, but it is an indication that people expect there will be improvement in the business.”
Deutsche Bank analysts also sense a change.
“The value of Rio’s aluminium business has been mentally written-off by the market,” analysts Rob Clifford and Paul Young said last week in a detailed report on the business using new information provided by Rio.
“We expect this to change in 2014, with the division close to completing the majority of its transformation.”
A focus on cost-cutting and the closure of high-cost assets led Rio to report a $US550m aluminium profit last year, when most analysts were expecting it to just break even.
After redoing its Rio numbers last week, Deutsche has boosted its 2014 aluminium forecast to $US955m this year, up nearly $US300m on its previous forecast.
“After years of generating negative cashflow, the long process of restructuring Rio’s aluminium division is about to pay off,” the analysts said.
“The improvement in aluminium free cashflow will offset the slide in iron ore prices in our view.”
Rio’s Alcan acquisition was made as China started building enormous aluminium capacity.
Half of this is now thought to be losing money, but there are no signs it will be shut down in the short term.
This has depressed prices, which have fallen from about $US3000 a tonne in 2008 to about around $US1800.
At Rio’s London AGM last month and again in Melbourne last week, Mr Walsh spoke of an end to the Chinese aluminium overcapacity, which he says is partly the reason the investors he spoke of are backing Rio.
The reason is that the growing Chinese middle class, like aluminium production, is energy- hungry.
“The increasing middle class will buy refrigerators, televisions, airconditioners, you name it, and they’ll need to power those up,” he said.
“I believe there will be a transition from using stranded power in China to power aluminium smelters to actually using that power to provide power for middle class houses and for small and medium enterprises.
“It’s what happened to Japan in the 1970s — Japan had a very vibrant aluminium smelting industry back then; today they have none.”
Mr Walsh expected this to happen within the next decade.
Billionaire fund manager Kerr Nielsen, who runs Platinum Asset Management, is also a believer in aluminium.
In a recent fund update, Mr Nielsen said a bigger Chinese focus on returns on capital, pollution abatement, an export ban in Indonesia and reduced alumina supply following the closure of Rio’s Gove refinery were all set to slow capacity growth.
“The industry itself has seen demand growth of 6 to 7 per cent per annum and any slowing of capacity additions could see a strong move in the metals price.”
Deutsche Bank is forecasting prices will rise to $US3000 a tonne again by 2020.
3 reasons I think can buy this counter on Wed: 1) up/ down follow Pmetal. Pmetal oledi up Mon, this one not yet. Wed up? 2) look at the chart's trend, just started to rebounce ( 2nd wave) .. 3) still penny stock, very cheap relative to Pmetal
Feel free to discuss. If it's good n timely to enter, we can sama2 go in n push the price up! Hehehe! How's that?
Rusal Sees Aluminum Prices Recovering in Second Half of 2014 By Biman Mukherji
HONG KONG--Aluminum producer United Co. Rusal PLC said Monday it expects prices to recover in the second half of 2014 after a year of struggling with declines that led to production cutbacks.
"The aluminum market is in deficit today," said Oleg Mukhamedshin, a deputy chief executive of Rusal.
The Russian company, which is the world's largest aluminum producer, slashed production by 8% to 3.9 million metric tons in 2013 and halted production at several smelters after it had called for industrywide cuts in an effort to reduce stockpiles around the world. Rusal said it expects to continue reducing output this year to 3.5 million tons.
The price of aluminum, used in items as diverse as beverage cans, automobiles and aircraft, was recently hovering around $1,770 a ton. That is down from about $2,100 a ton a year ago and well below its mid-2008 peak of nearly $3,500.
The global market for the commodity, excluding China, moved into deficit as a result of cutbacks by producers.
The Chinese market is currently well-balanced for supply and demand, said Vera Kurochkina, a deputy chief executive of Rusal.
The consumption growth for the base metal is "healthy" globally, she said.
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
Hitman
1,301 posts
Posted by Hitman > 2014-05-12 23:29 | Report Abuse
Cweed, wait..bed waiting ler..esok la..kutnait.