I see a lot of investors turned bullish on Brahims when its chairman said that they are in discussions with potential partners to come up with a plan to bring the company out of the PN17 status.
But I am a bit sceptic of this. If there was already a way to improve the company’s financial status, why does management would want to wait until Brahim falls into the PN17 status? Why not push the turnaround plan before that? One of the potential partners would most probably be SATS Ltd the other 49% owner of Brahim Airline Catering Holdings (BACH). I doubt they would want to put in more money into the company (they initially paid RM110mil for the 49%. They were supposed to pay another RM100mil but only when BACH reach a certain financial milestone which it never did).
Being a PN17 company will put more pressure on the company’s financials as there will be lesser (or potentially zero) banks that will be willing to provide the company with loans especially for its working capital. Investors need to take note that the company has a RM73mil debt to be paid in the next 12 months.
Brahim has a negative equity value of RM5.8mil at the moment. If you exclude the goodwill (51% of it as the other 49% is owned by SATS ltd), the net tangible asset value is a whopping negative RM58mil. Which means even if the company managed to come up with a regularisation plan, I doubt it will be good for the equity holders. Probably Brahim will try to convert the debt and payable into equity which would only mean a massive dilution for the current shareholders.
If you are looking to hedge your portfolio outside of Brahim (due to its weak earnings outlook and risks relating to its PN17 status), I would recommend you to look at MBMR. (https://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/stk/pt/5983.jsp)
MBMR is a direct proxy to Perodua via its 22.6% interest in the company. Valuation is cheap at only 6.1x PE based on FY18 profit of RM166mil. PB is low at only 0.7x BV.
FY19 should deliver another profit growth year to the company. Profit growth will again be driven by the performance of Perodua (via MBMR 22.6% holdings in Perodua) from the still strong sales of new Myvi, sales of SUV Aruz and the introduction of the newly revamp Alza sometime in the 2H19. Aruz which commands a higher margin compared to other models, will help improve the total profit margin of Perodua (which will flow to MBMR’s bottom line as well).
MBMR is expected to achieve a profit of RM200mil in 2019. At the current share price, the company is being valued at only 5.0x which is a lot lower than the industry average of 15x PE. As an example, UMW (another company with exposure to Perodua) is currently trading at a PE multiple of almost 20x.
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
Infiltrader
1,463 posts
Posted by Infiltrader > 2019-02-28 21:32 | Report Abuse
PN17 status.