yes , myself mostly holding velesto and serbadk share , anyway i thk oil price increase benefit serbadk more ! best time to collect at this bottom price !
massive fund/cash pump into Green energy will result under-invest in Oil----Looks like Green Energy might not cope -up with lastest energy Demand. Even EU is switching back to Coal to meet demand. $100+ Oil might arrive earlier than expected
really feel oil price up doesn't related with oil stks.. but oil price fall must related with oil stks.. velesto fall to 0.090 when oil fall to negative..
Agreed! It's too manipulative. Have to admit it. The historical data records revealed the truth. This is fact. I also stay away from this counter from now on.
This counter won't up immediately. If you are contra player then I suggest this counter not suitable for you. Velesto for mid to long term, I mean mid/long term is most probably after the 3rd/4th qtr or maybe next year whereby we can the reflection of qtr results in share price movement...subject to sustainability of the oil price (above usd 70) and numbers/value of contract bidding and commencing. Currently 2 rigs still pending for contract announcement. Naga 7 insurance claim???....no body know what is the status This is what I'm thinking...others might thinki in different perspective.
And naga 2 and naga 5 already hired by Petronas Malaysia combined contract value of usd 20.76mil (you all convert lerr into RM)
Naga 2 will commence its rig operation in between 15 May to 15 Jun 2021 (today is 23 of june by right the project already execute by now) Naga 5 will commence its rig operation in between 1st Apr to 14 Apr 2021 ( project already kick off )
If everything move on smooth then this revenue will reflect in 2nd/3rd qtr...hopefully
Meanwhile...
Naga 4 was hired by Shell Malaysia with contract value of usd 17.68mil (you all convert to RM lerr) and the project commencing on 15 Aug to 15 Oct 2021..will reflect in 3rd and 4th qtr...hopefully also
And
Balance 2 more rigs pending for contract announcement soon and naga 7 waiting for insurance claim (if I'm not wrong insurance compensation up to 400mil)
So how to expect the price to shoot up immediately despite they (Velesto) even generate any proper income yet. That's why I said most probably mid/long term. Assume that another two more rigs gets combine contract of 20 to 30mil usd....isn't it fantastic!! So patience guys.
The plus point is Velesto so far very safe and transparent...doesn't hv any bad news like kmn and sb
Just my 2c opinion. Doesn't mean Buy and Sell call. Trade at your own choice.
Velesto actually has a good business model. They are almost always in a positive free cash flow position. That's why they manage to reduce their debts from over 4.3b in 2016 to around 1b currently. Unlike sapura which needs to undergo debt restructuring to avoid any default.
That was before Naga 7 sink ....now different story.... might need to do impairment loss , impairment asset, ...might also incur legal expenses if insurance company not gonna honour claim due to.....etc.... Good to wait for next qr... .........wakakakaka
Outlook. We view that the outlook for Velesto is turning positive at this juncture despite its weak 1Q21 results as Velesto currently has 3 out of 6 of its available rigs working with another rig to commence mobilisation by the middle of June. The Company should see sequential improvements in its rig utilisation and profits towards the end of FY21. We forecast Velesto’s utilisation rate to come in at c.45% in FY21 and expect its cost savings initiative to mitigate any short-falls in utilisation rates. Velesto is working with the insurance underwriters and protection & indemnity (P&I) club on the way forward for Naga 7 as the rig and other related liabilities are adequately covered under the Hull & Machinery Insurance and the P&I club. We believe that Velesto would be adequately compensated for Naga 7 and we do not think that Velesto would replace its Naga 7 rig with a new rig.
My suggestion to Veryslow's board :- since the oil price is going up, use the insurance compensation money + bank loan to buy a new "Naga 8" to replace Naga 7 !! when oil demand is shooting up, so will the charter rate, take the opportunity to ride the next oil & gas super cycle !!!
KUALA LUMPUR (June 24): AmInvestment Bank Research has maintained its "overweight" rating on the oil and gas (O&G) sector for the next 12 months as crude oil prices have risen by 74% to US$75 per barrel currently from an average of US$43 per barrel in 2020, supporting a global resurgence in capex roll-outs and structural rerating prospects of independent exploration and production (E&P) producers and service providers.
Its analyst Alex Goh in a note today raised his 2021 to 2022 crude oil price projection by US$5 per barrel to US$65 to US$70 per barrel versus the 2021 year-to-date average of US$65 per barrel.
Goh also noted that based on a base case demand scenario premised on projects deemed likely to be sanctioned, Rystad Energy expects global liquids supply shortfalls of 22 million barrels per day (bpd) (22%) by 2030 and 28 million bpd (35%) by 2040.
"Hence, substantive global investments are still required over the next 10 to 20 years to stave off the projected supply deficit. In the absence of such investments, we expect another super bullish cycle, similar to the 2004–2007 run-up, which will drive crude oil prices to levels well above US$100/barrel," he said.
According to Goh, the value of final investment decisions (FID) in Southeast Asia for O&G projects is expected to surge by 3.5 times year-on-year this year to 700 million barrels of oil equivalent, and more than double to 1.7 billion in 2022.
"Malaysia will account for over 80% of Southeast Asia's FID in 2021 and 50% in 2022," he said.
Over the longer term, he said, deepwater investments are expected to be more prominent, peaking at US$6 billlion in 2027 from just US$2 billion in 2020.
He also noted, by 2024, deepwater projects will make up over 60% of the region's sanctioned resources.
Additionally, subsea tiebacks and floater solutions will gain traction as national oil companies optimise their capex under net-zero emission agenda, he added.
Hahaha! Wcasion911 Serbadk is very cheap nowww. 53 sen. Buy before its too late. Dont be sorry later. Buy buy buy collect and keeepp for bonus laterrr.
Before, this guy saying the same thing when sb trading at 0.60c buy very cheap....now drop to 50c also this guy saying the same story buy very cheap keep for bonus. Later when drop to 0.30c this guy will tell the same story...bleeding kah you skrg.
Shameful counter. Break Brent oil price September 2018 high, and it sleep like salted fish. Malaysia bursa is a joke. Don't say no relation between Brent and velesto. We all know the relation is there.
My read is Veryslow is currently neglected due to uncertainty surrounding its sinked Naga and the insurance compensation. I just checked , most "folk king stool pick" analysts cease coverage on this Veryslow pending new development of the above issue !!
Any rally depends on a Single Spark. One Big fish suddenly jumps in and 20million ikan Bilis will follow.----Now All Banker will hide under their Desk if you ask them to give a up-beat Tp. But once Velesto Rally, these bankers will suddenly become "very Brave" shouting in All Directions-----This is Stock Market-------10% Real 90% Con
The only hope for this "Veryslow" is when insurance company agrees to compensate them for sinked Naga ! It is a blessing in disguise ! According to one analyst's research, the compensation sum could be more than the sinked Naga's net book value (as the prudent management has been written off huge book value thru out the years) , if this happen , they will record huge "exceptional gain" on thier book value + huge cash from insurance could partly settle their outstanding loan liability or give them healthy cashflow to move forward ! Long term investors shall hold and wait for this good news to be released ! By that time then more analysts will start cover Veryslow and queueing up to raise TP to 0.40-0.50 (pre-pandemic average TP)
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
kennyqs
162 posts
Posted by kennyqs > 2021-06-21 19:34 | Report Abuse
yes , myself mostly holding velesto and serbadk share , anyway i thk oil price increase benefit serbadk more ! best time to collect at this bottom price !