Whether this stock worth buying or not depends on future outlook of oil price, if price hovering below usd60, it's hard for this company to be profitable as i believe most of its assets were bought during the peak oil price except for maybe naga 1, 2 & 3. Although oil price has found a bottom, it's hard for oil price to rally because US keeps on adding new rigs to increase production while opec cut production. The merger with icon and orkim is not going to make a big impact. Icon also in loss position. Orkim although has income stability, don't think it is significant to make a difference on the enlarged group.
Try asking the management in the upcoming AGM whether there will be another round of impairment if oil price remains below USD60 or whether all rigs will be utilised by year end. Unutilised rigs are actually burning money and profits from utilised rigs, if any, may not be enough to maintain idling rigs. This will give some hint whether the company can be profitable for FY17 and the hope of crawling back to RM1.
prepare for lower oil price going to $40 as OPEC deal cut not sufficient and this deal will end soon causing more production - all oil producing countries want to ramp up production because of debts and saudi will not be able to hold cut any longer as they need money now...
Whether the impairment will be written back depends on the assumption used in calculating the impairment, something to ask in the next AGM perhaps. Most importantly, all rigs need to have job for the company to turn around, not just one and two short term contracts to pass time. Also take note that contract value not disclosed. This is an important info as it tells whether the contract is profitable or not. Petronas can take care of local contractors but I doubt it has jobs for all the 8 rigs. There is also Perisai to take care.
PNB has always been the largest s/h of umwog, difference is going to be direct shareholding, currently indirect via UMW. I believe there is a limit of how many drilling contracts petronas can award. I just remember that sapura also has more than 20 tender rigs. Perisai has 3. Can petronas take care of everyone?
Arab already know from the beginning that production cut won't work. It will only buy time for shale producer to improve further and reduce their breakeven price. It has now come to a time where it's either shale producer or offshore producer has to die for the price to go up. Unlike shale producer where they can start and stop production quite easily, many offshore producers (and its related service contractors) has sunk in their capex investment with a very high long term oil price assumption.
By the way, whatever long term contracts secured by service contractors amount to nothing if the oil company can suspend the contract anytime without compensation. They are always at the mercy of the oil companies. So in the next few weeks, if oil price drops badly, offshore drillers can expect contract suspension again.
Why is SA listing Aramco? They know that the Oil Age is coming to an end. They want to get the $$$ to diversify. Toyota & Shell is joining up to build hydrogen filling stations across the USA. This explains why Shell is selling off its oil refineries worldwide.
What is coming to an end now is Opec's ability to control oil price. Not sure about other countries, the reason Shell is selling the refinery here is because it needs a lot of money to upgrade while the margin is too thin for the upgrade to be commercially viable.
At times like this, who else will subscribe the rights issue besides PNB and Ekuinas. Without the cash from rights issue, the company will continue to pay a lot of interest and very difficult to go back to profitable position. The bigger question is, can they do this loan reduction exercise without having to involve Ekuinas which will end up having to merge Icon and Orkim. As most analysts wrote, there is no synergy in this merger. Three of them do different activities.
Too late. Value of assets has dropped. Not sure if the market value today can cover the loan taken to acquire the relating asset. This is what happen when you buy too many assets at the peak. The best of all is buying with short term loan. Now I know why Petronas, despite having the financial muscle, does not own a single rig. The answer is so obvious now.
Let's analyse logically. What is causing the oil price to plunge and whether that cause is still around or has been eliminated? That will tell you whether oil price will go higher or not. In the meantime, brace ourselves to the new normal.
By the way, other countries are giving priority to their local oil and gas suppliers so it is expected that Petronas to do the same. If merely based on track record alone in awarding contracts, there is no way our new local suppliers can compete with established international companies.
also don't try to convince with poor data like supply and demand - this is called "confirmation bias" used by fund managers all the time to persuade people
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
sogeking
228 posts
Posted by sogeking > 2017-02-28 23:04 | Report Abuse
... or soon.