upsidedown119, it is unlikely for inventory or maintenance which normally last 1~3 days but the shutdown is from 21st Dec~1st Jan. If you have invested a lot then you should go and verify this so call rumour. Just spend a few hundred ringgit to make a trip to ipoh and take opportunity to pass by this company. Please don't be stingy to spend some cigarettes or teh tarik with the people nearby like my buddy did a few days ago.
the forecast unit sales of true wireless hearables worldwide is 120 million units for 2019 and 230 millions units for 2020. if the forecast for 2020 is 50% correct then about 175 millions units.
The following is my own estimate: 1) Jaybird has market share of 2 % and 30% of them made by Salute that is 1.05 millions units. 2) Mouse unit sales estimate by IB estimate of 7 times, conservative estimate Salute can deliver half 2020 which is 3.68 millions units. https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/AmInvestResearch/2019-08-19-story220113-Salutica_Poised_for_a_Comeback.jsp 3) Each headsets unit Salute profit is USD 5 = RM 20 4) Each mouse unit Salute profit is USD 0.5 = RM 2
Estimate profit 1.05 x 20 + 3.68 x 2 = 28.36 millions for 2020 Q2 ~ Q4 + 2021 Q1.
These estimate do not consider other profit from other products.
I am confident Salutica is on profit recoveries path for 2020 and 2021, while profit growth has to depend on sales from new customer product.
These are estimate not recommendation to buy or sales.
@davidkkw79, if u read through all the info here, u will notice that Salute doesn't supply its product to Apple, Salute supplies its true wireless earbuds to JAYBIRD.
''Customer A (most probably is Jaybird) is releasing its third generation of true wireless earbuds with an upgraded Bluetooth chipset developed by Salutica, in collaboration with a Netherlands company. The new Bluetooth chipset promised to rectify the connectivity issue which has plagued the previous 2 models, resulting in Salutica’s declining profit.'
This statement is from latest quarter report " The Group together with its European design partner have set a clear technology roadmap to embark on hearable devices with focus on micro-electronics encapsulation and miniaturisation. It is important that the Group have set this strategic roadmap to ensure continuity in terms of innovative product offerings to the market, highly capable resources and high end processes to successfully adapt to the challenging development of miniaturised products that can incorporate additional components for wider applications."
Thus far the prospects statement in past quarter reports are consistent with the company business development, in this regards the management delivered what they mentioned.
Salutica mentions clear technology roadmap which remind of the history of mobile phone.
The early stage of mobile phone development all companies are competing on the size of the phone, those smaller size and thin deem cool win market share.
Then came along smartphone that consumer demand large screen which make the phone bigger. Current stage company compete on large screen, camera, thin profile with big battery, the demand of size going toward thin dimension with minimal screen bezel.
Over the ear headsets used to be cool then later small earbuds become consumer demand.
Go online and check customer review for premium true wireless earbuds compare ipx rating, miniature size, light weight, well fit for fitness. None come close to Jaybird Vista. Safe to estimate Jaybird Vista is the start while there will be other Jaybird model to be launch, which is the normal consumer electronics trending to remain relevant and competitive.
Tech wise Salute and Jaybird few months ahead of competitors. The clear focus on electronics chips and fitting on encapsulation and miniaturisation also open other electronics product opportunities.
The company has visible near term earbuds and mouse sales prospect while there are potential growth from news business and new client.
Salutica is a rare competent malaysia company that has global sales.
The point is that did Salute managed to solve its long material lead time which prevent full production last quarter? Did the long shut down from 21st Dec to 31st Dec 2019 caused by problems from long lead time? Anyone got info on this?
In Salute's case, production = income. Less production = less income.
Investment Highlights We maintain our BUY recommendation on Salutica with an unchanged fair value of RM0.95/share, pegged to an FY21F PE of 14x. We keep our forecasts unchanged.
We have gathered the following developments from the group since our previous update: In 1QFY20, Salutica’s order fulfillment had been impacted by material lead time constraints due to customization of certain product parts from suppliers. The group said that as at January 2020, the material lead time constraint seen in the previous quarter has normalized.
Higher contribution of its new 3rd generation truly wireless stereo (TWS) headphones to be captured in 2QFY20, leading to expectations of higher revenue. Production started in August 2019 (end-1QFY19) and there was an initial low launch volume of the product captured in the previous quarter.
On 28 October 2019, Apple had launched its new in-ear true wireless airbuds, AirPods Pro in the US, with features such as active noise cancellation and transparency mode which allow users to listen to music and still hear the sounds of the environment around them e.g. in traffic while going for a run. The price of the AirPods Pro is US$249 (39% higher than Customer A’s new TWS headphones’ price of US$179). Despite this, Salutica said that Customer A’s forecasts remain unchanged. We thus maintain our forecasts.
Salutica has been working on diversifying its client base in order to reduce customer concentration risk and The Edge Markets MY website reported that the group is in the midst of securing 6 new customers from Australia, Canada, Europe, Vietnam and the US although we note that the projects potentially secured would start from a small base.
We reiterate our BUY recommendation on Salutica as we are still optimistic on the group’s earnings recovery in 2020 due to a slate of product launches i.e. the aforementioned new TWS headphones and the production of four computer mice for Customer A.
The group is expected to gain from its exposure to the growing TWS market which is seen to benefit from the trend of removal of headphone jacks in smartphones. Meanwhile, in the next 3–5 years, Salutica plans to address the hearable devices market to go beyond music with various applications such as in hearing enhancement, fitness tracking, health monitoring, and better compatibility with virtual assistants e.g. Apple’s Siri and Amazon’s Alexa.
Most IBs work on short term horizon. Personally from my own experience IB reports sometime reference for short term while most of the time not worth the reference. Technological company prospects has to be view from 5 years horizon or more, the next 2 years salutica should be able back to recover profit phase and I think will surpass their previous peak profit of 24 millions just because of current wireless and wired headphones and mouse sales. Beyond that the new customer could potential provide the profit growth, however this has to be monitor from their progress within 2 or 3 years. Hearable devices are the next frontier which is difference type of product from simple current wireless headphones. Salutica still not proven able to gain niche market of health product. From their quarters reports, the management has secure few new customers and start works of new product mix which should be good to the company revenue growth.
This is opinion only, not a recommendation to purchase or sale of stock.
will give the ambank analyst some slack.He spotted and shared with us the latest going ons and those who followed closely wouldve made money from the report 2 quarters ago.
Yes, bear market took profit, nothing wrong..but what if it further up due to good QR, then you earn peanuts in one potential good stock.. however no one can guarantee. only respect trustworthy mgt team.
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
Investeye
2,347 posts
Posted by Investeye > 2019-12-26 15:41 | Report Abuse
upsidedown119, it is unlikely for inventory or maintenance which normally last 1~3 days but the shutdown is from 21st Dec~1st Jan. If you have invested a lot then you should go and verify this so call rumour. Just spend a few hundred ringgit to make a trip to ipoh and take opportunity to pass by this company. Please don't be stingy to spend some cigarettes or teh tarik with the people nearby like my buddy did a few days ago.