I'm gradually buying now since public spread not met. Extension till January 2020. Hopefully something to spur interest. Or else go private. Risk is all yours.
Posted by ks55 > Apr 29, 2019 10:23 PM | Report Abuse X
Q1 makes 2.46 sen. Annualized is 9.84 sen. PE 10, fair price 98.5 sen. PE 15, fair price is 148 sen. PE 20, fair price 197 sen. PE 25, fair price 246 sen.
So what do you pick? PE 15? PE 25?
If you take into consideration dividend 17 sen. Times cover? Negative man! Not prudent way to pay out more than what you earn! Not sustainable.
Crude oil is on the way up. Unless can get better selling price, profit margin will squezze further. Play safe, buy at PE 12 to 15. You may see PE deteriorate next quarter............
The thing you need to know about LCTITAN is that, they IPO'ed at all time high earnings, off the back of demand for polymers being stronger than supply from 2013-2017.
Now that supply have caught up, spreads will fall and their profits will naturally fall. This is the normal earnings.
They perform fine.
At this price, you are getting a refinery at roughly 5-6 times net "normal" earnings, if you net off the cash. If you count the all time high earning, its more like 2 times lol.
The question now is, the cash (plus additional debt) is going to a new refinery in Indonesia. Do you think their decision process for the new refinery is the right one?
RAPID is coming online, and they will supply some polymers, is the demand strong enough to absorb this without causing a prolonged drop in the crack spread, or structural drop in price of polymers in South East Asia?
Recession? Well, this one i don't really care, important to know, but mostly unknowable. The question i'm more interested in, is if there is actually an economically viable alternative to plastics? I don't think so.
I'm still holding and thinking of buying more, but do note this is only 1.7% of my fund, in terms of cost, it was like 2%.
I made a mistake of buying at RM4, thinking their all time high earnings was normal, lol. After studying more, bought a little more at RM2.8. I'm definitely thinking of buying more at this price.
Posted by ks55 > Apr 29, 2019 10:23 PM | Report Abuse X
Q1 makes 2.46 sen. Annualized is 9.84 sen. PE 10, fair price 98.5 sen. PE 15, fair price is 148 sen. PE 20, fair price 197 sen. PE 25, fair price 246 sen.
So what do you pick? PE 15? PE 25?
If you take into consideration dividend 17 sen. Times cover? Negative man! Not prudent way to pay out more than what you earn! Not sustainable.
Crude oil is on the way up. Unless can get better selling price, profit margin will squezze further. Play safe, buy at PE 12 to 15. You may see PE deteriorate next quarter............
Non stop outflows of foreign funds, global trade conflicts remains, domestic political environment uncertainty, poor company performance, relatively high PE, bad reputation since IPO etc. Est below 2 but may take time.
1). Do nothing, continue paper loss if price remains low. 2) Do something... average down if you judge potential upwards in near future. 3) Do something... exit plan if you judge prospect remains dim. Anyway, the company won't die immediately unless it follows London biscuits to write off substantial receivables (may be inventories too?). Positive is cash rich 2.1 billion and no borrowings, negative is more than 5.6 billion current assets (no one know its quality as like London case) vs current liabilities of less than 0.5 billion. Another Korean firm CJcen, bought local firm at 1.40 if not mistaken, now traded just above 0.30. Anyway, overall market remains weak. I like ks55 PE 15. Good luck.
Dropping exports data suggests potential drop in revenue, hence its bottom line. Only goreng can push up its price. If based on fundamentals and valuation, is quite unlikely to improve in ST. High dividend is the only way to support the price at this level.
Global polyethylene markets will enter 2020 facing oversupply and pressured prices, with demand expected to lag behind throughout the year.
Asia, Europe and Turkey see similar challenges with abundant resin supply amid economic slowdowns and continued uncertainty stemming from the US-China trade TENSION.
Thirteen new PE plants in the first wave of startups from 2017-2019 will increase North American PE capacity by 35% to more than 27 million mt/year. The 15 plants slated to start up through the 2020s will push that overall capacity up by another 26% to 34.35 million mt/year.
Prices are showing oversupply pressure. By early November 2019, HDPE blowmolding prices had fallen 43% to $782/mt FAS Houston since mid-March 2018. In the same span, LLDPE fell 41% to $772/mt FAS, and LDPE fell 37% to $871/mt FAS.
At least one of the new plants slated to start up by year-end 2019 will ramp up in early 2020, that being LyondellBasell's new 550,000 HDPE plant alongside the Houston Ship Channel. The plant had been slated for startup in mid-2019. However, market participants expect price pressure from oversupply to linger into 2020.
"We don't see prices rising in Q1 2020," a PE trader said. Globally, there's already so much supply."
A total of 12 chemical factory workers on Jalan Nibong 1, Tanjung Langsat Industrial area near Pasir Gudang, sustained burns in a fire at the factory yesterday.
Seri Alam district police chief Supt Ismail Dollah said the fire, which happened at around 9.21am to 9.27 am, was completely put out by Lotte Chemical Titan (M) Sdn Bhd firefighting unit.
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
T800Terminator
1,695 posts
Posted by T800Terminator > 2019-10-31 22:35 | Report Abuse
180 is a good bargain.