Posted by titan3322 > 2020-04-29 20:27 | Report Abuse

You are spot on xterrorsinx

Posted by titan3322 > 2020-04-29 20:29 | Report Abuse

Tomorrow sapu again at 1.50 level

Posted by ivanlau > 2020-04-29 20:32 | Report Abuse

-7.48 eps is really big shock.......... fasten your seat belt as it will fall down again to 1.30

Posted by bahai4453 > 2020-04-29 20:36 | Report Abuse

Nobody knows what is going to happen tomorrow as substantial numbers of newbies and experienced retailers are hunting around in Bursa for gains. They have vaccines to cure DJ Index and oil prices.
All graph, tables, facts and financial analysts are not their concerns anymore, Hahaha..

Posted by firehawk > 2020-04-29 20:40 | Report Abuse

gg

Posted by xterrorsinx > 2020-04-29 20:41 | Report Abuse

Tmr 1.50? Lets hope no more 1.50 man. We want 1.80 lvl alreaydy.

Posted by xterrorsinx > 2020-04-29 20:58 | Report Abuse

Now i have more time to read through the announcement. I spotted a key giveaway the company has given. Please read carefully. They are the key supplier for Polypropylene in SEA. This is used for Plastics and Nonwoven fibre for masks, medical coat. Their Cracking outputs are propane and ethene. Ethene can be used for making ethanol which is a key ingredient in the hand sanitiser. So despite the global slow down in consumption, their products are largely hedged against the fact that there are alternative consumptions for them.

Please take note that Mask fibre providers like Ocean Cash are getting their materials from Propane. Instead of investing in Coronavirus related stocks, why not invest in stocks that benefit in both coronavirus and non-coronavirus Era? Which is Lotte Chem. If a vaccine is announced - ALL coronavirus related stocks like Topglove, careplus, Oceancash - They will crash to bottom. But only Lotte Chem will do well in both.

Quote: "To support the Government’s initiative, the Company has sponsored its Polypropylene, a type of
polymer product, which is one of the raw materials used for production of face shields and throat
swabs for COVID-19 testing procedure." - This shows they're the raw material supplier for PPEs.

Also, take note that the company issued a separate announcement to address the public shareholding spread issue which is currently at 23.97%. Do remember the case of HLCAP which was then suspended after not meeting the public spread requirement? LOTTE Chem is international company and they will be smart enough to want to avoid getting suspended. So there are a few options
1) Issue shares to further dilute the shares
2) Privatise
3) Major shareholder selling down their shares.

Option 1 - Do they have to issue the shares? Issuing shares are for companies that are in dire need for money and that are likely running out of debt options. The company stated it is sitting on NET CASH 4 Billion (Not by me, by the CEO). Would the company need more money to issue the share? Obvious No

Option 2- Major shareholder selling down their shares. To be honest. If they sell down their shares, i will be selling together with them because obviously that means they don't see the value the company as i do. But they won't obviously they will not sell down their shares that is like taking RM 1 and giving out RM 4 deal. Obvious nono.

Option 3 - Privatise. I think it is very likely possible. Due to - low public spread (they need RM 840 million at current price to take it private for a company that has nett asset of RM 12 billion). Only 24% to buy up unlike Genting which is 55% publicly owned.

So in near term, we are looking at privatisation deal. If not, we are going to enjoy the huge profits coming in the next few quarters due to low oil price. This is the best basket in whole klci. Naphtha price is 50%-60% of their raw material prices. If they sell 1.4B, it will be 700b from naphtha. Now naphtha has dropped 75% - That is a good RM 525 translated into Operating profit. Remember. The Q1 quarter prices were the actual Q1 prices (No lagging factor) The Q1 cost of materials were lagging behind due to the previously bought pricing.

So we are looking at RM 500m+ operating profit the next quarter. How much the company is valued at is up to your imagination.

Cheers.

Posted by xterrorsinx > 2020-04-29 21:01 | Report Abuse

Correction: IF the revenue is 1.4b, their naphtha cost should be roughly 700m from historical level.

Posted by xterrorsinx > 2020-04-29 21:03 | Report Abuse

"As announced on 22 January 2020, Bursa Securities has vide its letter dated 21 January 2020 approved a further extension of time of 6 months until 23 July 2020 to comply with the public shareholding spread requirement pursuant to Paragraph 8.02(1) of the Main Market Listing Requirements.

The Company wishes to inform that it is taking action to address the shortfall in the public shareholding spread and will provide updates at the appropriate time."

Posted by xterrorsinx > 2020-04-29 21:03 | Report Abuse

We are essentially less than 3months away from likely privatisation. Good Luck to all shareholders!

Posted by James Ng > 2020-04-29 21:33 | Report Abuse

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/general/2020-04-29-story-h1506821707.jsp
[转贴] [Facebook live video:浅谈Lotte Chemical Titan holdings bhd (LCTitan)] - James的股票投资James Share Investing

Posted by lbkeat > 2020-04-29 21:42 | Report Abuse

option 4 , company give back its treasury shares as a reward to its royal shareholders .

Posted by lbkeat > 2020-04-29 21:52 | Report Abuse

not only lctitan can take advantage of the low feed stocks price but the competitiveness against its local peer pchem. when crude oil is very low naptha base cracker have advantage over ethane cracker that is derived from natural gas. back to 2009, the average price relationship between natural gas and crude oil was around 10 to 1. 10 mmbtus to 1 barrel of crude oil.after so many years, the ratio 10 to was back!!!

Posted by titan3322 > 2020-04-29 21:56 | Report Abuse

Good piece of analysis xterror, but this stock is known for its volatility a darling for traders I wouldn't say it cannot go below 1.50 again

Posted by lbkeat > 2020-04-29 22:05 | Report Abuse

big catalyst first, superb low naptha price compare to ethane. second lctitan major revenue from pe and pp. third sinopec major statutory plants maintenance in Q2, pp export to china will surge within the period (q1 down about 300m)as china is a largest mask and ppe exporter in the world .forth inventories reversal and many of tax credits. if u look for the sector recovery, u shold look for its associate lc USA AT CHARLES LAKE more than 20b investment(start operational) and coming 30b investments in indonesia( all r ethane cracker ,line projects)and its more than 50b assets in malaysia .

Posted by ykloh > 2020-04-29 23:23 | Report Abuse

LC should implement a Dividend Reinvestment scheme to enable only public shareholders to increase their shareholding.

Posted by Philip ( buy what you understand) > 2020-04-29 23:28 | Report Abuse

Xterrorsinx, if u look back at lctitan history, it was already privatised before and relisted. Why do you think it is highly possible? Privatisation will lock you out of share sales, rights issues and other ways of raising money during this period. More importantly, if they privatised no one will ever trust them again to relist a third time to claim money from shareholders. Trust is a two way bridge

>>>>>>>>

Option 3 - Privatise. I think it is very likely possible. Due to - low public spread (they need RM 840 million at current price to take it private for a company that has nett asset of RM 12 billion). Only 24% to buy up unlike Genting which is 55% publicly owned.

Posted by xterrorsinx > 2020-04-29 23:49 | Report Abuse

Philip i think the logic behind privatisation is to take advantage of an undervalued asset. But you do have a good point of trust issues in the future. Nevertheless it is an option on the table.

https://cdn1.i3investor.com/my/files/dfgs88n/2020/04/08/1513430590--1854234938.pdf

Posted by mamatede > 2020-04-30 00:18 | Report Abuse

lctitan have a big disadvantage with it's Johor plant which is not properly plan out and easily disrupted. and with pchem giant plant at pangerang which is modern and higher efficiency. lctitan can really close shop operations.

Posted by mamatede > 2020-04-30 00:21 | Report Abuse

they just finished their plant TA, and this does not mean smooth startup and full operation. it takes 1-2 weeks for full production. and provided everything is smooth. certain plants in bintulu took a few months after ta to be fully produce and that is not even smooth and constantly shut down due to certain fault discover

Posted by mamatede > 2020-04-30 00:22 | Report Abuse

buy la goreng la, for long term forget about it

Posted by Killsthebear > 2020-04-30 01:23 | Report Abuse

pengerang with 2 explosions and 1 technical glitch in 1 year time was better? hmmm...

Posted by deadchicken > 2020-04-30 07:38 | Report Abuse

01 April 2020 from BIMB

 LCT is the key winner of low crude oil price as it consumes naphtha (produced
mainly from crude oil) as its main feedstock for its production.
 Naphtha accounts for 50-70% of its total operating costs.
 Naphtha price is now at c.USD200/mt, more than 60% lower than 4Q19 average
price of USD535/mt. Usually there is lag impact of 6 months for low naphtha prices
to be reflected in its income statement.
 Assuming ASP and naphtha prices correlates at +0.8 (ie. ASP drops by USD8/mt for
every USD10/mt decline in naphtha price), we estimate LCT could gain 1.5% in gross
profits or c.RM20m for every USD10/mt drop in naphtha prices.

30 April - current naphtha price USD138. So RM20m x 40 =800m profits. rite?

Posted by xterrorsinx > 2020-04-30 07:47 | Report Abuse

Deadchicken you’re dead right. Why would they not privatise at this price?

Posted by deadchicken > 2020-04-30 07:49 | Report Abuse

@xterrorsinx so from now on till Q3 the price going to push up rocket high!!

Posted by Arthur546 > 2020-04-30 08:06 | Report Abuse

deadchicken: totally agree your analysis. you r pro in this industry.

Posted by Arthur546 > 2020-04-30 08:06 | Report Abuse

but not too greedy. TP at RM2,00 first.

Posted by laychee > 2020-04-30 08:41 | Report Abuse

Bad earnings but expect price to surge up?

Privatise while ROE is negative?

Posted by weiiii > 2020-04-30 08:45 | Report Abuse

I think some unpredictable concern for petrochemical industry as follow
1. Demand fall due to covid-19
2. Recovering oil price that correlated with naphtha
3. Product selling price going lower due to competitiveness in the industry for mid to long term

Posted by deadchicken > 2020-04-30 08:58 | Report Abuse

Long & green candle stick today maybe.

Posted by xterrorsinx > 2020-04-30 09:10 | Report Abuse

Say so much no use. Last chance to come on board. Traders will miss out profits. GLTA

Posted by deadchicken > 2020-04-30 09:19 | Report Abuse

Maybank TP1.85

Posted by BornToSpeculate > 2020-04-30 09:22 | Report Abuse

They are hoping prices to drop coz their miss the boat

Posted by BornToSpeculate > 2020-04-30 09:24 | Report Abuse

Suddenly so much interest in this counter. Some of the info that some of you are guessing about, is in the IPO prospectus and every financial update but many prefer not to read and just comment anyway. There is a plant expansion for another 2.2b which is due to be completed in 2023. After all their investment they still have excess cash coz of the retained profits all these years.

If you dont know, better to keep quiet, read more and eat humble pie instead of making silly comments and embarrass yourself later.

Posted by BornToSpeculate > 2020-04-30 09:24 | Report Abuse

For those that keep thinking that a loss must always result in a gap down in share price or since first quarter EPS is negative price should drop, I hope you start doing some homework on equity valuation, just google it. People look future earnings, future growth and the loss was expected.

If you so worried about this, you have more than half of KLSE that will be reported losses / bad results for Jan to Mar2020 coming soon, and most of them are not even net cash with tons of borrowings. PCHEM is similar industry, same financial closing and has downtrend in profits 2-3 quarters before this. Lets see what they report. Sapura NRG had mt everest of debt, reported a super result yesterday did you not understand why it didnt drop ?

terrorsinx nice analysis but i think SC will grant them extension and not let them privatize

Posted by potenza10 > 2020-04-30 09:32 | Report Abuse

what happened? QR bad also, price is rocketting? Lol

Posted by deadchicken > 2020-04-30 09:37 | Report Abuse

@potenza, ppl buy for future...not current

Posted by potenza10 > 2020-04-30 09:39 | Report Abuse

i want to dispose today and dump in POS but cancel lah...enjoy the ride.

Posted by FreshMango > 2020-04-30 09:39 | Report Abuse

In a world of debt cash is king.

Posted by deadchicken > 2020-04-30 09:39 | Report Abuse

market price always 9 months ahead!!

Posted by investortrader88 > 2020-04-30 09:40 | Report Abuse

lctitan.amazing stock

Posted by signalmw > 2020-04-30 09:45 | Report Abuse

All I n

Posted by xterrorsinx > 2020-04-30 10:07 | Report Abuse

This is one of those shares you can sleep well with. Buy low. around 1.6x is good entry price.

Posted by xterrorsinx > 2020-04-30 10:19 | Report Abuse

If extension for public spread, they still have to do something. I'm looking at RM 3 as fair offer with discount.

Posted by Fabien "The Efficient Capital Allocater" > 2020-04-30 10:22 | Report Abuse

on the bright side, Q1 loss coincides with major tunraround activities

moving forward to Q2 and beyond, with the sharp drop in naphtha prices expected to see good profit2 margin due to product spread expansion

not looking to far ahead to assume the current spread to last for the whole year, its not exaggerating to forecast they will make 400mil net profit, about similar to last year

net cash per share is around 1.77. latest NTA 5.41
assuming EV/EBIDTA of 5 - 6x, fair value around RM2.5-3

Posted by xterrorsinx > 2020-04-30 10:23 | Report Abuse

1.67 has long been the resistance. if this is broke, 1.86 is next ya. scroll down here to see: https://www.isaham.my/stock/lctitan

Posted by xterrorsinx > 2020-04-30 10:25 | Report Abuse

Broken with piece of cake. RM 1.86 here we come.

Posted by laychee > 2020-04-30 10:29 | Report Abuse

As usual, after James FB live, price will surge. As James always chooses hot stocks as vehicle to advertise.

Posted by Val-Elta > 2020-04-30 10:33 | Report Abuse

actually, the idea of privatisation by xterrorsinx is not that far off.....

I want you all to study the volume of shares transacted carefully.
16/4/2020 - 45.3m
17/4/2020 - 47.2m
29/4/2020 - 40.3m
30/4/2020 - 40 million (Should be la, based on first 1030AM volume of 23million shares now)

Overall, this 4 days of heavy volume purchases is total of 170m

Total shares

170,000,000 / 2,272,983,500 = 7.5%

LCTITAN shares is 76% privately owned.

almost 33% of publicly owned LCTITAN shares (7.5% vs 24%) has been purchased by someone in 4 days only...

you will see a very different composition of the public shareholding spread in this year's soon to be announced AR.

Posted by Luke91 > 2020-04-30 10:33 | Report Abuse

today limit only RM2 don pump over ya