Posted by Markv572421 > 2024-04-05 15:30 | Report Abuse

Who is the buyer ?

Posted by Jonathan Keung > 2024-04-15 16:50 | Report Abuse

MACD support line park at 1.10. what to watch out is their next coming quarter result announcement. Only if the management do a kitchen sinking clean up then it's going to be a very bad Qtr result

Posted by Markv572421 > 2024-04-17 09:57 | Report Abuse

Better sell if no improvement ....wasting money to put into company that nothing to be done.

Posted by Jonathan Keung > 2024-04-18 14:48 | Report Abuse

Difficult to predict what the future holds for LCTITAN if their own captain decides to jump ship or sell off their factory.

Posted by soon9913 > 2024-04-19 11:11 | Report Abuse

high oil price should be bad to this counter also, as it is their materials.... !!!

Posted by Markv572421 > 2024-04-19 16:19 | Report Abuse

close the company laaa better ...

Posted by DividendGuy67 > 2024-04-19 18:32 | Report Abuse

For those trading LCTITAN using technical charts, all concerns expressed are fair points.

This week has closed lower than 1.10.
- Yes, the technical bias is downwards.
- Yes, nobody knows where the next bottom is because in a downtrend, supports tend to get broken.
- And if one backtest to Mar 2019 when the strong 4.10-4.20 support got broken the next 12 months was very painful.

So, what should we do. A few other observations:
1. I am underweighted - my neutral position size is 3% of my portfolio and it is now 2.1%. This % comes down because LCTITAN fall at a faster rate than my total portfolio with other stocks.
2. If we go back to March 2019, there was still a high probability win when we combine technical tools with our fundamental beliefs on this stock. When it fall, let it fall until it finds a new base and then accumulate following position size rules. If we are disciplined, the next 24 months also turned out a winner.
3. Back in 2019, the NTA was higher than Price but not much higher. Hence a big fall is not unexpected.
4. Today, the NTA was very much higher than RM1 vs NTA > RM5 - huge cash converted to fixed assets. Less likely for further fall. In fact, this time we see the break below 1.10 has lower volume, suggesting less belief of a much larger fall. Nobody knows of course. Small initial reactions can sometimes gather larger volumes to push down, but given the huge gap and there is a business behind this stock, the odds are less of this happening.
5. This suggests Principle of Alternation is more likely to occur in 2024-2026, than 2019-2021.
6. In other words, as I have anticipated and prepared for this upcoming move, I continue to execute my strategy i.e. lower prices is an accumulation zone, but not greater than my neutral position size.
7. This is because, nobody knows if this stock is going to zero - I think 99% chance it won't, but I am never certain but odds are extremely good that in the next 2-3 years, I will win if I stick to my fundamental + technical strategy. The win size though may not be large (it depends on market) and the time to take to win is uncertain. But I am confident with my approach in the long run for 100 stocks, because Technical Analysis on its own has limitations.

Everyone should have their own strategy. Good luck over the next 3 years.

Posted by Plantermen > 2024-04-20 10:11 | Report Abuse

Good explanation. Whether using technical or trend line projections. Always set your own limit not to forget your own risk appetite.

Posted by Plantermen > 2024-04-20 10:14 | Report Abuse

And your own time line investment strategy. For long term holdings{ 2-3 years} or short term trading 3-6 mths tine frame

Posted by xiaoeh > 2024-04-20 10:35 | Report Abuse

Good sharing DividendGuy67
strongly agree with point 07.
fundamental + technical strategy

currently Lctitan's future is highly uncertain
at least for now...

Posted by rocket2000 > 2024-04-30 12:33 | Report Abuse

QR should be out today?

Posted by Stocks888 > 2024-04-30 15:58 | Report Abuse

Selling …..

Posted by Stocks888 > 2024-04-30 19:56 | Report Abuse

No QR release haha… bye bye

Posted by cheated > 2024-05-02 17:11 | Report Abuse

Why QR still big loss? When loss QR can stop?

Posted by Plantermen > 2024-05-03 09:31 | Report Abuse

Losses for the 1st quarter FY 24 comes in at - 178 million lower vs Y-o-Y. LCtitan has lost money consecutively for the last 9 quarters

Posted by EatCoconutCanWin > 2024-05-03 10:39 | Report Abuse

This company is time to buy

Posted by xiaoeh > 2024-05-03 11:12 | Report Abuse

any good news EatCoconutCanWin?

Posted by DividendGuy67 > 2024-05-05 16:16 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by rickygiam > 2024-05-06 11:08 | Report Abuse

Sure drop below 90cts consider buy to keep..

Posted by Plantermen > 2024-05-06 12:02 | Report Abuse

The first quarter losses of - 178 milllion is slightly below the loss of - 225 million reported in the previous qtr. Nevertheless based on what was reported by the press. LC titan is expected to face worse off in the 2nd quarter ending June24 with lower sales volume and weak product demand. With demand muted and a supply gut Analyst expected LCtitan core losses to further widenen. The 1st Qtr losses ending March 24 was narrower due to the LCtitan has capitalised 136 million in interest expenses relating to the loan taken for their Indonesia plant expansion. In other words the accounting side have sidestep the interest from the P&L and instead putting as part of the construction costs. This is something minorities should. Make note of. The cost of construction costs would be substantially higher with the debt interest added on the plant expansion. Please do your research and understand the so called interest and cost transfer

Posted by cK1973 > 2024-05-06 13:25 | Report Abuse

so EP 90-100.....
can?

Posted by cheated > 2024-05-06 21:09 | Report Abuse

LC Titan down 5 sen today so DividendGuy67 portfolio still make new high(many of his posts comprise his portfolios make new high) today?

Posted by DividendGuy67 > 2024-05-06 21:43 | Report Abuse

Hi cheated. Yes, with KLCI up, majority of my stocks went up, to offset the reds and yes, my portfolio made new all time high again today, even with LCTITAN down 5 sen.

That is the beauty of a highly diversified above average quality businesses. No one single stock dominates.

Unfortunately, i3 has deleted all references to my blog. That's fine since I blog mostly for my own future reading and future reference. It reduces my sharing but I respect i3's wishes.

Whilst LCTITAN drop 5 sen, my other stock UOADEV went up 5 sen and I own more shares there than in LCTITAN, hence, that helps. But it's now behaving as I expect, so, curious to see how much lower LCTITAN can get. Times like this, as it approaches accumulation zone, this is an opportunity.

Posted by DividendGuy67 > 2024-05-06 22:21 | Report Abuse

All time low 0.975. Traders will be eyeing price action near here.
Given the downward momentum (huge fear), my tembak sense say maybe 50:50 chance we may see a new low, if RM1 round number support doesn't hold.

Apparently, market likes to make new low to trigger traders stop losses below there. I don't know and don't care.

If it does get there, then, maybe got some chance we might see capitulation i.e. big drop down fast and recover fast. This is because today's candle length is longer with bigger volume.

So, the question for this week is will tomorrow be even longer red candle with even bigger volume?

Traders love capitulation because this is when you make fast monies as a trader.

Posted by Jonathan Keung > 2024-05-07 08:50 | Report Abuse

Technically still negative. Strong possibilities of Lctitan testing new low below 95 sen. A few IBs have put the TP at 90 sen based on widening losses for 2 ND quarter assumption. For momentum day traders try not to catch a falling knives . Lctitan not for trading prepared to hold 1 or 2 years till the plant is completed

Posted by Markv572421 > 2024-05-07 10:40 | Report Abuse

Pity Lctitan.......

Posted by MG9231 > 2024-05-07 11:37 | Report Abuse

ipo above $5 , since then diarrhea

Posted by Plantermen > 2024-05-07 13:37 | Report Abuse

There must be a strong reason or compelling factor LG Korea have decided to dispose off their subsidiary LCTITAN which they have invested

Posted by Plantermen > 2024-05-07 13:39 | Report Abuse

They are not telling us except for the standard reply. Weak demand and over supply

Posted by DividendGuy67 > 2024-05-07 14:23 | Report Abuse

My accumulation order at 1.00 was filled. Basically bought nearly 40% of what I previously sold at 1.4x. I didn’t buy 100% because a larger part of me expects more downtrend. This is part of a longer term strategy. Not expecting anything to happen in near term except for lower prices.

Posted by Plantermen > 2024-05-07 15:10 | Report Abuse

Best of luck to you.... Bro. Need to stay away and see whether the IB jokers TP price prediction of 90 sen can materialised

Posted by DividendGuy67 > 2024-05-07 21:13 | Report Abuse

Thanks Plantermen. I'm indifferent to the outcome of this one trade, as I own many stocks.

Still, today closed at 1.00 with almost equal volume as yesterday. 4 red days. Usually, 5th day should be red (majority odds). However, today was not capitulation but slowing down, with only 2 sen from Open to Close. Not common to see a big capitulation after today's move down.

So, if extend, majority odds tomorrow might see 98 sen. My position here is still significantly underweighted at around 2.36% of portfolio (target is 3%), as my total portfolio made new all time high again today! Expected as KLCI is strong, to land at 1605!

Posted by EngineeringProfit > 2024-05-13 08:55 | Report Abuse

Serbadinamik 2.0

Runnnnn....

Posted by azfar8 > 2024-05-13 16:03 | Report Abuse

Any new suggestions if run from here?

Posted by EngineeringProfit > 2024-05-13 16:24 | Report Abuse

So many......grab glove stocks........airplane aax capitala.....

Posted by azfar8 > 2024-05-14 08:39 | Report Abuse

Is it still not too late to enter at this moment?

Posted by Yoong888 > 2024-05-15 15:51 | Report Abuse

privatisation is on the cards. think can accumulate :-)

Posted by jinxstock20 > 2024-05-15 17:27 | Report Abuse

Below Rm1 is really a good deal to buy

Posted by Yoong888 > 2024-05-16 09:24 | Report Abuse

The last time it privatised was 1x book value in 2010.

Posted by stevenckheng > 2024-05-16 09:34 | Report Abuse

NTA 5, P/B 0.2 , apa jadi ni

Posted by Yoong888 > 2024-05-16 15:30 | Report Abuse

will be taken over soon

Posted by jinxstock20 > 2024-05-16 23:30 | Report Abuse

Taken over by who ?

Posted by Rio2814 > 2024-05-17 05:21 | Report Abuse

What will be the take over price?

Posted by Yoong888 > 2024-05-17 10:33 | Report Abuse

LCT has expanded tremendously with completion of Indonesia LINE project, so its a very god proposition for take over. Its fixed assets is now RM17 bil. At current market price, its a good accumulation.

Posted by DividendGuy67 > 2024-05-18 08:25 | Report Abuse

I just posted an article on LCTITAN here, sharing my trading idea.
I'm patient and can wait for 1, 2 or 3 years for my trading idea to come to fruition. If it happens within a few months, that is a bonus to me.

Posted by DividendGuy67 > 2024-05-18 09:44 | Report Abuse

Take over soon? Haha ...

Posted by DividendGuy67 > 2024-05-18 09:48 | Report Abuse

(sorry ... a company that is about to be taken over soon will have a completely different price action than what's printed so far ... quite certain there is no take over soon).

Posted by DividendGuy67 > 2024-05-18 09:55 | Report Abuse

Don't be greedy. I've seen fundamental stocks priced at P/NTA = 0.2, then, fall to 0.1, i.e. 50% fall from current price. Nothing is impossible.

Posted by kl_guy > 2024-05-18 10:09 | Report Abuse

when bull run , any stock will also move. lctitan is oversold . short term can goreng

Posted by DividendGuy67 > 2024-05-18 10:10 | Report Abuse

A week plus ago, Jonathan shared "Strong possibilities of Lctitan testing new low below 95 sen." This is a common TA trader view back then as it was downtrending, so, majority odds.

Subsequently, it printed a higher low of 0.985, 0.5 sen higher than the normal expectation of 0.98, which I mentioned. The fact that it didn't happen means market knows how TA traders thinks and moves ahead of them.

However, because market knows that we know, so, market thinks another step ahead typically. I.e. typically 2 steps ahead of TA traders.

Meaning, 0.985 might not be the low - I would say 30%-40% chance it could revisit this.
Whereas the chance of touching 1.46 within next 12 months, IMHO, is slightly better than 40% chance.
Vast majority of the time, it's going to try to exhaust participants first, before it makes its move.
The odds add up to more than 100% because price revisits same levels many, many times.