Don’t have to get too serious about the trade war it is merely a show for Trumps to manipulate the correction and paving his road for next election...American product by the way is very expensive comparing china made... it won’t be easy to talk about what is fair n what is not... So, it will be like a show... If selling thing cheaper is wrong... then American should not talk about free trade and fair trade anymore.
Today DJI up... guess that everything has gone back to discussion and talk table... have less worry about trade war shall we??
Communists synpathizers always have away to get around in bluring the issue.Question is what Lotte Conglomerate disasterous ordeal in China is still not over.
Read from PCHEM forum, Asia Nikkei news reported global petrochemical supply shortage, expected PCHEM earning will improve in coming Qtr result. This will spill over to all petrochemical, Lctitan will benefit from it the most due to undervalued, recovering back to >90%, no plant shutdown, plant TE3 & PP3 plant expansion, higher production output delivery for 1H18.
My assumption is correct. If there is a worst-case trade war occur between US-CHINA, global PE prices will shoot up tremendously as lack of further tighten supply in the market. This will bring higher ASP price for petrochemical products for all non-US countries. Ultimately, it cause effect to raising the global price, since the US ‘price’ has just gone up by 25%. - most benefit is Asia petrochemical producers due to tight supply products.
Here, clearly show.. we should not fear of US-CHINA market trade war, in fact it benefit the most for Asia or non-US petrochemical producers!
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- China tariffs to shock US and global chemical markets
04 April 2018 23:49 Source:ICIS Chemical Business
Contrary to the expectations of industry executives and analysts, China is directly targeting certain chemicals and polymers as it rolled out its list of $50bn in retaliatory tariffs against US imports.
“China has made it clear it doesn’t want a trade war but isn’t going to roll over if Trump wants it. China’s had over a year to plan for this, and you can see the tariffs are very carefully targeted,” said Paul Hodges, chairman of International eChem.
China did not mention a specific date for the 25% tariffs to take effect. It should be an effective bargaining chip against US tariffs. “Calling out chemicals explicitly… [is] likely to be more of a warning shot rather than a significant disruption for the industry. Trade flows should adjust relatively quickly, and most chemical companies have significant local production in China,” said Jefferies analyst Laurence Alexander.
It’s still a shock. Delegates at the International Petrochemical Conference (IPC) hosted by the American Fuel & Petrochemical Manufacturers (AFPM) in San Antonio, Texas, in late March saw very little chance US chemicals would be directly targeted.
ICIS senior consultant John Richardson has been warning about the threat to US chemical exports in the ICIS Asian Chemical Connections Blog, where he saw $12.4bn of US chemical exports at risk.
Chemicals comprise about 40% of the list of 106 US products targeted by China tariffs, including polyethylene (PE), polycarbonate (PC), polyvinyl chloride (PVC), acrylonitrile (ACN), catalysts, lubricants, epoxy resin, acrylic polymers, vinyl polymers and polyamides.
“Oddly, neither styrene nor ethylene glycol were on the list – the two single largest volume chemicals exported from the US to China,” said Jonas Oxgaard, chemicals analyst at Bernstein.
The analyst does not expect the tariffs to have a US price impact, as the listed chemicals are a small percentage of US exports.
“For example, only around 6% of LDPE/LLDPE exports go to China, and out of those 6%, half are specialty grades,” said Oxgaard.
However, the US is gearing up for a huge wave of PE capacity coming on in 2018 and 2019, with much of it targeted for export. The tariffs include linear low density PE (LLDPE), most grades of LDPE, and medium density PE (MDPE) but excludes high density PE (HDPE).
“LLDPE may be the most impacted polymer volume wise, with 4.3% of the US production exported to China in 2017,” said James Ray, senior ICIS consultant.
GLOBAL PRICE WAR
A global price war becomes more likely if US product meant for China is diverted elsewhere, say Europe.
“The US is not going to stop producing. The potential for a price war was already high, but with tariffs, it would be a near certainty,” said Hodges. “There are two giants in the room – ethane-based integrated producers, and refinery-based integrated producers. They are… [going to] run full out. Everyone else better think of alternative plans and fast.” US PE volumes under tariff going to China would be extremely uncompetitive. “You can’t get through a 25% tariff barrier with something as commoditised as PE or PVC,” said Hodges.
PRICES TO ACTUALLY RISE?
A contrarian view is that global PE prices could actually rise. “If China buys from a source other than the US, that source will not have product for all of its current customers and US producers will fill the void,” said Cowen analyst Charles Neivert. “This may be a bit more costly because it will take multiple customers to fill the China volume. Ultimately, it might have the effect of raising the global price, since the US ‘price’ has just gone up by 25%.”
A China tariff on US PE could also limit additional global capacity. “Such an announcement would certainly disincentivise producers from embarking on the next wave of capacity additions in the US, making an already tight market tighter,’ said Alembic Global Advisors analyst Hassan Ahmed.
The American Chemistry Council (ACC) is understandably concerned. China imported 11%, or $3.2bn of all US plastic resins produced in 2017. And the US exported $11.5bn of chemicals and polymers, or 9% of its overall chemical exports, to China in 2017.
I am on the same page with you Kelvin bro, the demand over supply will last like at least two qtrs so for LCtitan case is like you either buy now or never...Feel so lucky that I have bought earlier... wait for the dividend to come and as time goes by capital gain another 30%.
that true @SamuelLuke. It will slowly climb up, day to day for sure there is an resistance & support level price. As long big picture of business fundamental & macro sector economic is growing, it just a matter of time BIG fund manager will observe & come in to accumulate it. :)
I'm happy now. Thank Kelvin for the sharing info. My instinct told me, fund mgr is actually collecting now. All small retailer is almost selling off their share, it will fly very high soon from here. Hope for the best in coming days :)
Dji up 480++ those who worry trade war can sleep well though I don’t think it make any differences...market sentiment could change better bit... hopefully tomorrow break or test 6.5...
like i said ,there wouldn't be any trade war, China will bargain with tough words for awhile , later will comply, gracefully,but break up in various stages,to save face ;this is chinaman typical business culture/style.
Hmm.. today trend seem like big fund mgr are buying the share quietly by not parking queue to buy. At 4.29pm, suddenly sapu all, push back price up to 6.40. That Interesting!! :)
Looks like this only worth 6.40 max .. I Have an idea how about all of their products label LOTTE or LCtitan so more people know this name .. need to educate more people lah .. so company got business ..
I believe it a consolidation mode, fund manager are smart. They keep on collecting more shares for next explosive good 1Q18 result by end April since macro economy moving into tighten supply, high China demand & better ASP price.
I agreed with Infinite. Not too worry about naptha price. Market demand more than supply now, and some of the PP resin supplier increase their price by 18-22% now. As long as LCTITAN manage to boost up their operation efficiency, LCtitan can grab more market share. I had read Nanyang news that LCTITAN has done very good job on Q1 by reducing the maintenance from estimate 400millions to 100 millions, and also increasing their utilisation from 73% to 90%.if the result reflect on Q1, I guess EPS >15 cents. Or else, Q2 result well be very outstanding.
Lctitan share price is shoot up this few days, it could be a good sign on Q1 result. I definitely stay my investment on this counter as this is very potential counter.
The problem is a lot of big time speculator holding 200 to 500 lot each pack between @RM6.40 to 6.50 & reluctant to sell down to RM6.32 where the numerous(small investor) willing buyers waiting(They try to buy upto@6.40(11April) but more lot appear @6.50 again) that is why buyer cannot push-up the Price otherwise already touch RM6.60/6.70. Sometime these few big lot speculator(Rich ppl very calculative).
The price up when big fund keep accumulate the stock where they found its potential to growth. Q 500 lot of more is not a problem for fund to absorb. we will never know when they going to collect more. If you know the potential is there just buy and wait.
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enning22
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Posted by enning22 > 2018-04-09 22:49 | Report Abuse
其实中国佬,“搵笨"美国人,占人便宜,从进入wto ,已经二十几年,还在装傻,自己自由出美国市场,而相反的,不开放自己市场让人进入,造成俩国贸易巨大不平衡;现在人家醒觉。要求贸易平等。本就合情合理。中国佬嘴硬,不讲情理,让人讨厌。