This stock have the strength to rebound was due to it was in an uptrend since Oct 11th'19 when SMA 10 crossover SMA 50 and the gap between SMA10 vs SMA 50 getting bigger. During an uptrend, any price adjust down below SMA 10 will rebound. The most extreme price adjust down was Feb 3rd's 1.15, it hit SMA 90 also manage to rebound same day as it is within an uptrend at the time.
However, the current concern is :
SMA 10 = 1.38 already broken
SMA 50 = 1.36 also already broken
SMA 10 & SMA 50 gap narrow down to less then 0.02 only (compared to Jan 2nd, the gap was 0.196)
SMA 90 = 1.23 (which is about 9% from current price)
Once SMA 50 > SMA 10 (crossover at 1.36), it will be a reverse way, any price up will be temporary and drop back. Thus, it is crucial that > 1.36 need to be hold in order to maintain the uptrend.
Next few days will know whether the uptrend will be continue or it will reverse to downtrend. The double tops of 1.45 is also another resistant need to break in order to confirm uptrend. Technically if a double tops appeared, it will be a bearish trend.
Tomorrow will be critical as if no rebound and the closing is still < 1.36, a downtrend is confirm, unless an exceptional great news stimulate the market or specific to Revenue.
Since 1.3 support already broken today, next support shall be 1.23/1.24 = SMA 90.
Hopefully the SMA 90 1.24 can hold. If broken, next support :
1.15 (Feb 3rd's lowest) 1.04/1.05 (SMA 200)
Based on the chart, it is confirmed a downtrend if no rebound by today back to 1.36 unless a great positive news come out. Those who chase high at 1.4x, 1.3x will be all trapped in with huge volume pending to be forced sell.
Feb 3rd it hit 1.15 (SMA 90) and rebound immediate, no retailers actually able to buy at 1.15, I only manage to buy 1.2x on the day and sell 1.4. The strong rebound at the time was due to it was still an uptrend.
This time it hit 1.24 (SMA 90), and seems may further down, everyone can buy 1.23/1.24 today. There is no immediate rebound as it is a confirmed downtrend. During a downtrend, no rush to buy, wait for the point of reversal to uptrend then only enter.
I believe I had been sharing the bearish signal that I observed many times when it was 1.39/1.4x. However I believe ppl only chose to listen to what they want to hear only.
Again, no rush to buy when it is at downtrend, buy when the downtrend ended and reverse to uptrend. Any technical rebound will be temporary and drop back during downtrend.
My buying point reference to the multi-moving average Guppy MMA. When the SMA 3 ~12 (up) start to crossover SMA 30 ~ 50 (flat), the crossover point (start of uptrend) will be my buying point.
Currently it is a reverse way, the SMA 3 ~12 is down and just cross over SMA 30 ~50 (flat) this week. It is a beginning of downtrend.
It is too early to tell when will be the exact buying point.
The last uptrend started Oct, the SMA 3 ~12 (up) crossover SMA 30 ~50 was Oct 11th and the uptrend ended this week. Need to wait for another crossover point to determine the buying point. No rush, keep capital and wait, there is plenty of opportunity for this type of market conditions.
Today closing SMA 50 = 1.362 > SMA 10 = 1.357 => officially move into bearish mode.
For Multiple Moving Average :
SMA 3 ~ SMA 12 = 1.297 ~1.36
SMA 30 ~SMA 50 = 1.362 ~1.371
All near term moving average < 30 days to 50 days moving average => officially it crossover to downtrend by today.
During a downtrend, it will gradually move towards 1.15. There will be rebound occasionally, however, it will be temporary and drop back fast (it is an opposite to uptrend, during an uptrend, any drop in price will be temporary & will rebound fast).
1.15 will be the critical support level to determine whether the previous double tops ("M") of 1.45 (Jan 23rd, Feb 28th) will switch to double bottom ("W"). If the drop can sustain above 1.15 & above, then a reversal from "M" to "W" will be possible. 1.15 become the support with resistant is 1.45. However, if 1.15 being breakthrough, there will be possible a further drop to SMA 200 which is 1.04/1.05.
In stock market everything can happen, just like the political drama for past one week.
Lets wait and see, only enter when there is a buy signal reverse to uptrend. Who knows what will happen next week ?
If you have the free capital on hand, now all are opportunity at promotion price. However, if you already bought high in past 2 weeks and out of bullets, you miss the opportunity (opportunity lose), while others are doing bottom fishing, and those stuck at buying high only hope to break-even.
Hardly a normal trader like us can earn money during downtrend, even professional traders lose money in current market condition.
Trade with cautious, buy low (with patience, not rush) and sell high (timely, refer to technical trend chart instead of by emotion), most importantly, do not chase high. Imagine those who chase high at 1.4x and not selling until 1.2x? Nobody can buy the lowest & sell the highest, important is the entry point & making profits timely and always prepare free capital for opportunities. Nowadays opportunity occur almost every week (outbreak, politics, elections, world economy potential recession..), you stuck in holding stocks, you miss the opportunities
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
Kendo Ken Hz
983 posts
Posted by Kendo Ken Hz > 2020-02-26 18:20 | Report Abuse
But this stocks has intricis strength, that Alway bound back from bear..