SMA 200 1.05 is the critical support. whether to rebound from this level or continue further downtrend depends on the closing this week whether can sustain above 1.05.
so the ewallet free rm30 initiative is ending soon, do u ppl really think consumers had picked up the habits of using ewallets? the answer is apparently no, our ppl are timid n cheapskate, touchngo ewallet usage had slowed down a lot, ever since it cut down its promotion, just like what Boost used to be this is further impacted by weaker consumer spending amid tough time now plus recording profits thru selling of terminals will dismiss slowly
epayment is a main trend forming, yesterday saw an ~70 uncle used it to make payment in pharmacy. Maybe it is due to safe factor not to carry much cash
epayment or QR code payment to be precise is definitely a trend, but a lot of ppl seem to think revenue is a moat this bubble is gonna burst hard when they realize this trend is forming very slowly, plus the entry of more competitors to share the cake
if you travel to China (of course after the outbreak over), you will realize that Chinese in mainland China make payment mainly cashless, even hawkers and street markets. Malaysian had been outdated but that is the trend worldwide, just like in the past ppl Q in bank for cash transaction but nowadays a smartphone will do most of the jobs. We are late does not means we deserve stagnant. We invest for the future trend.
The downtrend is not over yet although today technical rebound to 1.12. 1.05 (closing) cannot break for this week in order to confirm a rebound is sustainable If this week closing break 1.05, it may trend down to below RM 1.
Current resistance is SMA 90 = 1.25 (if 1.05 able to support).
last time when smartphone trend, everyone say inari no future, uncle duno use smartphone. then inari business keep growing, later on uncle now also using smartphone.
same goes to revenue, it see how u predict the future, future ad show at china using cashless, malaysia surely will follow but need time. even uncle can use smartphone, why not they use cashless transaction?
@ newbie230, I do not think anybody can confirm a single stock tomorrow will up or down.
Based on chart, it is still on downtrend. However as it just drop from 1.22 (highest) to 1.01 (lowest) from Fri to Tue within 3 days, it will volatile thru & forte between SMA 200 & SMA 90 (1.05 - 1.25) for next couple of days.
Only if it break below 1.05 (closing), then there is risk for further down to < RM 1. If it break above SMA 90 = 1.25 (closing), then it reverse back to uptrend with next resistance 1.32 = SMA 30.
if there is any technical rebound, take profit first. always buy low sell high and do not chase high. it is in a consolidation stage, indecisive for whether to go north or to go south, trade cautiously.
if today's closing = 1.14 or below, it will form a gravestone, a signal of bearish mode. if today's closing stay positive +/- 1.18, a signal of positive reversal trend.
@ newbie230, during a strong downtrend, normally it will have few candlestick pattern to reference for when to buy and when to sell :
1) Long red candlestick (Mon) : price rapidly drop from 1.22 to 1.08.
2) Long green candlestick (Tue) : follow by Mon's big drop, next day opening will have a follow up drop before it technical rebound to close in green. Price range from 1.01 to 1.12. => Buy at opening.
3) Gravestone candlestick (Wed) : follow by Tue's uptrend, most traders will continue momentum in the morning to chase high, that will be the time to sell in the morning while others are chasing high.
IF tomorrow is another long red candlestick at closing, it will form an evening star to continue the downtrend => retest SMA 200 1.06. IF tomorrow is another green candlestick at closing, the consolidation will be continue thru & forte between SMA 90 & SMA 200 (1.06 ~ 1.25). Again, any technical rebound sell to take profit as downtrend is not yet over.
Only hold stock for long term during uptrend. Downtrend will be trapped if holding stock.
@maxprofit2020 Hey Max, love your analysis with a bit of good judgement. Just wanted to ask you, do you believe this is a value stock? Cause I really feel that in some ways, it is currently trading at a discount compare to its highs this 52weeks.
@ evan, in term of the business model, future prospect, yes, this is a rising star.
However, majority of companies in current market conditions will be impacted with price discount. especially Revenue had been growing from < RM 0.2 in year 2018 to Jan'2020 > RM 1.5, it is time for correction before it grow further, which is healthy.
We pick a company to invest based on fundamental (FA). However, when to buy or when to sell reference to technical (TA).
Some trader may buy high due to good fundamental & ignore technical, which may miss a lot of opportunity to stuck capital at holding high price.
We live in a rapidly changing global environments, almost every week situation change (trade war, Iraq war, outbreak, political issues, oil price drop, DJ drop..), it is important to stay alerts to trade cautiously nowadays and do not fall in love with any stock.
the purpose I share is to educate myself also need to be discipline.
guys, 1.06 SMA 200 is critical support, if today's closing < 1.06, it will free fall to < RM 1. however, if 1.06 support is strong enough, technical rebound from bottom is possible.
again, the downtrend is not over, trade with cautious.
low oil prices and Covid-19 make economy slown down fundamental company metamorphism ,expect local and foreign funds money would not flow in big cap and mid cap stock because everybody scare buy high losses money . In this few month expect Funds manager money would flow out in bigcap and midcap stocks and will short selling midcap stocks for make money so now no prospects cannot buy and hold. market stock RM5.00 drop to RM 2.00 ,followed RM2.00 drop RM1.00,followed RM1.00 drop to 50 cent,followed 50 cent drop to 20cent ,followed 20 cent drop to 10cent ,followed 10cent drop to bottom. This is a opportunity markets money no longer will flows in cheaper stocks sharks will goreng lows price stock at bottom..
I may not share much for Revenue from now on until I see a clear reversal from bottom and moving to uptrend. I hold zero stock for Revenue after I sold all at 1.4/1.41 x 2 times last month.
In current global market conditions, trade cautiously and do not buy during downtrend.
Today main share and WA closing is weird. Strong support at 1.1 for main share but WA drop quite a lot. Hopefully tomorrow will rebound based on today support.
It means although the selling pressure is high in the morning (all the way want to press down to 1.05 < SMA 200), at closing it manage to push up the closing price = opening price = 1.1. It form a "T" candlestick which is a positive sign as buyer have control for the price at the end of market close.
If tomorrow opening is green, a technical rebound is possible. Short term resistance :
SMA 10 = 1.18 SMA 90 = 1.25
Current support remain SMA 200 = 1.06. Shall SMA 200 critical support remain strong without being breakthrough at closing, it will move thru & forte to test the resistance. However if SMA 200 being breakthrough at closing, further downside is expected.
Take note that the downtrend is not yet over.
Dow Jones future (for tonight expected to drop -1165 points, -4.94%)
That's why I indicated Dow Jones future for reference just in case some traders maybe too optimistic for the closing at 1.10. The actual DJ opening drop is much more, at -1800, -7% ~ 8%. Friday opening may impact by fear.
However, the same theory apply, it have no conflict for the two scenarios :
1) If opening still in green in-regard DJ in deep drop , still may technical rebound to test resistance although the chances are very low. 2) If closing in red and lower then 1.06 SMA 200, downtrend continue and prepare it will drop below RM 1 and free fall as SMA 200 broken. Take note that SMA 200 is an important confidence level for whether the price can hold & rebound. If SMA 200 broken by closing, the confidence lost & ppl will panic sell with no support. If you take a look for Jaks, you will understand. I have been constantly alert in Jaks forum that SMA 200 had been broken but being ignored, and it free fall from 1.02 to 0.865 today.
Again, do not buy & hold for a stock that's in downtrend, especially we are in a volatile global environments.
That is the TA rule. SMA 200 is the important support. Once it broken, the confidence level broken as well.
There will be still thru & forte fluctuation, however once ppl's fear arise and confidence gone, it will be free fall.
When price free fall, do not rush in to buy, you will run out of capital to do average down. Patiently wait for a reversal to uptrend (during a golden cross), then only enter. This is TA principle.
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This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
MichelleNg
1,031 posts
Posted by MichelleNg > 2020-03-09 21:55 | Report Abuse
Wait for below 50cents only buy.