Posted by Vaganond > 2015-08-14 16:03 | Report Abuse

no opinion? So you guys not sure if experts saying that klci has bottom not true?

Posted by Vaganond > 2015-08-14 16:06 | Report Abuse

Well, according to Ramesh, our local expert, klci will rebound strongly once 1600 is breach. Do you agree?

Posted by lins > 2015-08-14 16:06 | Report Abuse

well strong support at 1590

Posted by Vaganond > 2015-08-14 20:42 | Report Abuse

Well, it's certainly like klci will slowly rebound by next week.

Posted by Vaganond > 2015-08-14 20:53 | Report Abuse

Have you learn anything for the past 2 weeks? Was the extreme fall of ringgit and klci took toll?

Posted by fukrai > 2015-08-14 22:11 | Report Abuse

currecy and klci is bleeding heavily and quickly. let's pray this not continuing next week. really heart attack these couple of days!

Posted by Ooi Teik Bee > 2015-08-14 22:23 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by apanama > 2015-08-14 22:26 | Report Abuse

As long MAYBANK still strong above 8.00 then should be ok. After MYR touch 4.10..in my honest opinion, the USD will be softened. Im looking at MYR 3.95-4.05 in mid term while stabilise around 3.90 at the end of the year. Dont worry too much, about Dollar strenghten, its just exaggerate. Its similar like Oil price if all of you still remember. USD 140 WHY? DOLLAR WAS WEAK. Same goes here. Once the speculators achieved their target..KABOOM..the USD will soften . Just watch this 1588. If monday break this level and opening failed to open above 1,596, then we will have problem 1,550. However, if its manage to open as high as 1,600.23 and above, then, we will see something. My bet, the market will be well defended at 1600-1,610-1,620. They will climb back..:)

Posted by alphajack > 2015-08-14 22:28 | Report Abuse

Currently based on ELiott wave 1520-1530..once that is broken next wave should be 1400..1520 is surely doable by month end.. Hahaha OTB remisier only dont show off and try to advise people la...Now also got people making a ton of money from the downturn ready while you still there absently doing nothing. OTB you heard that? Retirement is calling, leng cai

Posted by apanama > 2015-08-14 22:29 | Report Abuse

Hujan pun tak turun lebat sentiasa. Ada juga matahari keluar dlm seminggu..:)

Posted by apanama > 2015-08-14 22:32 | Report Abuse

Dont be so confident with whatever wave..:)

Posted by alphajack > 2015-08-14 22:42 | Report Abuse

eleh you all still optimistic meh..please la..downtrend is confirmed ready.dont be delusional la..haih all so stubborn and dont wanna buy puts..your pasal la..I tried to help

Posted by Vaganond > 2015-08-14 23:04 | Report Abuse

Well, let's look at the facts first.
1. Klci start a medium term downtrend in May when Ci was at 1860
2. Currently in mid August, Ci is at 1590
3. Internal factors for downtrend are foreign funds outflow, 1mdb, political uncertainty, donation scandal, etc
4. External factors for downtrend are interest rate hike, strong us dollar, devaluation of Yuan, etc.

Now, we can see that within 4 months, klci lost 270 points. Don't you think that such lost is too excessive? Going back to 2012, we did experience similar downtrend only to rebound for the next 2 years hitting new high of 1890.

Please share you opinion, do you think for short term, klci will rebound to regain excessive panic sell?

Posted by Jal Bamboo > 2015-08-14 23:11 | Report Abuse

interest rate hike will balance the global economic, malaysia as long as najib doesnt go down klci will keep go down. all the investor news keep tell political scandal, do u think foreign fund wont keep draining out!! sure drop drop till he go down. 1500 is a good direction.

Posted by Vaganond > 2015-08-14 23:13 | Report Abuse

Let's look at internal factors contributing for downtrend
1. Foreign funds : What made foreign funds flow out? Is it because of interest hike in US that US dollars are flowing back to their home country? Or is it something to do with bad governance in Malaysia?
2. 1mdb : Is it so serious that no solution in sight? Or is the solution or solutions already taken place. Arul did make announcement that 1mdb debts should be clear before year end. Is it pure lip service or concrete plans already on the way.
3. Political uncertainty : What can we do about it? Or rather what can our politicians do about it? Is it the duty of our representative to find solution rather that worsening a rather soluable situation? In fact foreign political analysts deducted that Malaysia has all the solutions but is there political will to do so?
4. Donation scandal : Is the rm2.6 billion came from 1mdb? If not, then should not there be parliment sitting and commission to find out why such big political donation was made? Or is this actually common practice by both side of political divide? Or should a law be implemented to ensure all political donation to be made public.

Well, for the above, looks like internal factors are not that severe if actions are taken by affected parties. Or rather, the severity of situation are due to overaction of all parties?

Posted by alphajack > 2015-08-14 23:14 | Report Abuse

It will rebound on Monday but the downtrend will persist right until the first interest rate hike by the Feds. By that time, it should be around 1500..Not too bad considering we gained a lot in the last 3 years. The biggest losers will be index stocks but export stocks may resume sideways which isn't bad. But of course, it hurts to be stuck so my advise is be LIQUID. Cash is king now ..correction. Cash in the right hands is king. Give a monkey a ton of cash and he will throw all in all the furniture counters without even trading the volatility. Dont do that..not a good time to average down yet..

Posted by Vaganond > 2015-08-14 23:15 | Report Abuse

Please your thought without making personal attacks. You need to show your thoughts not your emotion.

Posted by alphajack > 2015-08-14 23:30 | Report Abuse

I love to troll. Trust me, I have no emotions. You might call me a psychopath. I am bloody heartless. that is why I am also a good trader. So please don't see my posts as personal attacks, truth is I don't even care to attack people cause I dont care! ha

Posted by Vaganond > 2015-08-14 23:59 | Report Abuse

Well, thanks for sharing alphajack. Same goes to all of you who share your thoughts.

Posted by Vaganond > 2015-08-15 00:04 | Report Abuse

I do have some trading to share as well. I bought FLBMKCLI-HK 4 weeks ago and sold it today. I made 120K which is quite small actually. My reason for selling it as it made into top most volume. My assessment is that we have reach a point of fear in the market. Do you think my assesment is correct?

Posted by alphajack > 2015-08-15 00:17 | Report Abuse

Congrats to your profit. Almost as much as me..ANd the fact that you bought it earlier than me means you made more percentage wise.. Impressive. I only got it end of last week..

I still think the upside is there as long as the market tanks because the market maker is supporting it well. For the HM you can see live quotes in the Macquaire website but for CIMB one it is harder to predict and time your profit taking. Yesterday it barely moved when it was supposed to go down a lot but today it flew like mad so in my opinion, CIMB FBMKLCI-HK has been cornered by syndicates ready without much market making presence so it may be inflated. Hence, safer to go for the Macquaire ones but CIMB one may still ride on as the volume of purchase is incredible today with a lot more buyers than sellers. Someone is collecting today to fry it up next week. But if next week no plunge the person could contra sell it down and it may fall a lot. So, HK is very risky now and it totally depends on CI. If CI hits 1550 by Tuesday, I can assure you it will go up to 35c..But if it stays at 1590-1600 the HK might get dumped as it already surpassed the fair value calculated based on exercise price (lazy to explain here you should alrdy know how to calculate that)

Posted by Vaganond > 2015-08-15 00:22 | Report Abuse

Thank you alphajack. Same goes to you.

Now, i rather call recent 270 points drop as adjustment of all internal and external factors that we experience as indeed excessive compounded by sentiment and irrational perceptions. I do have doubt that it will go beyond 1500 unless new factor contribute to such. As of now, all factors already known and at best did their worst. Do you agree?

Posted by apanama > 2015-08-15 05:13 | Report Abuse

Congrats to u vaganond. Wise decision. Always take profits when its more than 100%. In this 'casino', we never get what we want. To alphajack, x be so confident as dynamic of market can change while we are sleeping dancing fucking n drinking. K buddy..chill up. X be so confident in market wt what we have. :)

Posted by Vaganond > 2015-08-15 13:34 | Report Abuse

I agree with you apanama. I don't think we should be overconfident where the market should go. It may turn and make a strong rebound of 100 points? Many analysts are saying that the recent 270 points adjustment is too excessive. Given recent abolishment of subsidy and introduction of GST in April. In fact July export data suggested increase rather than decrease hence 3rd quarter gdp report may see above 5% compare to 4.9% and 5.6% on 1st and 2nd quarter.

Posted by Vaganond > 2015-08-16 11:20 | Report Abuse

Reading alot of reviews from other financial bloggers today. And what surprise me is that quite a number suggest recent dead cat bounce as a sign of imminent V shape rebound. Well, there are few type of rebound to begin with, there's the W shape which suggest a strong bottom, and there's the L shape that can confuse many into thinking it will drop further. What do you think?