Stock Pick 2019 - Choivo Capital
Owner: Tan KW
Access Type: SHARED | Tag: SP2019
Stock Pick 2019 - Choivo Capital(https://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/cube/565916597.jsp)
TOC - https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/stock_pick_2019/187676.jsp
25% RCECAP
25% PETRONM
10% Airasia
10% Hibiscus
5% Aeoncr
5% Timecom
5% SOP
5% KSL
5% Gadang
5% Mahsing
Anything leftover kindly put it into PetronM thanks.
TOC - https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/stock_pick_2019/187676.jsp
25% RCECAP
25% PETRONM
10% Airasia
10% Hibiscus
5% Aeoncr
5% Timecom
5% SOP
5% KSL
5% Gadang
5% Mahsing
Anything leftover kindly put it into PetronM thanks.
Total Value
119,251.57
Today's Change
-779.50 (-0.65%)
Allocation
Stock's Value 119,121.00
Current Holding 10 Stocks
All Time Holding 10 Stocks
% of Total Value 99.89%
Available Cash Balance 130.57
Current Cash Balance 130.57
Unpaid Dividend 0.00
% of Total Value 0.11%
Performance
Average Cost 106,619.96
Unrealized Gain +12,631.61
% over Average Cost 11.85%
Total Capital 100,000.00
Total Return +19,251.57
% over Total Capital 19.25%
Last Updated:
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Holding
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| Stock | Last Price | Change | Shares | Market Value | % | Average Cost | Per Share | Unrealized Gain | % | Day Gain | % |
|---|
Discussions
1 person likes this. Showing 50 of 137 comments
Icon,
I expect to under-perform the index in bull years, and beat it in normal or bear years.
Though tbh, malaysia index is kind of rubbish, so i expect to beat it during bull year.
Over a 20 year period, i expect to beat the index very comfortably. And value investing is the only one that can provide that consistently.
Having said that, if OTB make 100% in bull, you make 50% and i make 20%, with the index say 15%.
I'll be extremely happy. They are worse things in life than to make a little less profit than the other person. 20% or 15% is still huge.
You say my conservatism is the bad part. Globally, in order to be the top 1%, you need USD32,400 in income. Im pretty close for this one.
And a net worth of USD770k, or about RM3.2m. I expect to hit this figure in 15 years if i compound at 10%, with savings per annum rising at 3% (this is very conservative as i'm very good at what i do, and i work damn bloody hard).
Personally, i expect to be hit the top 1% in the world by my mid thirties or less than 10 years.
And i intend to keep that whealth. Instead of the many retail participants here who have their horror story of how they become very rich and lost in all in their thirties.
At my own age cohort, i'm fairly certain my networth is top 1-5% in malaysia.
in any event, when you have enough money, its just a number on a screen and high score. Im not one to risk what i need for what i want haha.
My method suits me, because of my temperament and how i think. I buy more when prices go down, if i'm a trader, i will die. And i sell when it goes above fair value.
Some money, not for me to earn.
=====
Posted by Icon8888 > Jan 5, 2019 06:11 AM | Report Abuse
Yes. Jon will very likely underperform in bull and in normal market
That is the weak link of his investing model
Which is why I until now is still not convinced that it is suitable for him
2019-01-12 14:48
probability,
I wont be preparing a speech. i expect to just wing it. Just go there and start talking, more fun this way.
in any event, i dont think i am in a position to be giving advice at my age, when the audience are all much older than me. I may have studied it abit deeper than most on this topic, but, a person in their fifties or sixties have lived alot more.
Like they say, they've eaten more salt than i have eaten rice.
I'll probably just share my experience, talk a little on how i think, and take questions.
2019-01-12 14:52
Dont hv to bother abt i3Value's remark...u looks ok to me..
One day if i want to change my fengsui i may hv to borrow yr photo too...TIA
2019-01-12 15:14
Haha thanks CharlesT.
This year i decided to ignore all low value add individuals and i'm quite happy to find myself perfectly ease doing so.
When the phone don't ring, you know its me. Hahaha
2019-01-12 15:18
Dear Jon Choivo,
Glad to hear that you will be giving a speech at the i3 blogger forum. I too was invited to be one of the speakers and was given a slot of 25 minutes to present my paper. My presentation title:
Love triangle (FA-BS-TA). Intrinsic value INSAS: refer below link.
https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/Sslee_blog/189654.jsp
And received one critical review comment from Ricky Yeo: The value of a business is the expected future cash flow. That's it. You don't go alter the concept and add NTA into the entire valuation. This is how people mess up investing. Now your whole valuation is wrong.
Where is that guy that adds all the lands of Hengyuan into the future earnings and value HY at $90 per share.
10/01/2019 20:24
I response: Dear Ricky Yeo,
Do not understand what you mean as I do not add in NTA. I only look into Non-current asset and break it down to those at end of life span equal to zero. And those subsidiary/buildings generating DCF in term of (dividend /rent growing at rate 4% and discount rate at 4%) and for land the PV=current price x (1+a)^N/(1+d)^N and assuming that appreciation rate is equal discount rate then Land do not appreciate nor depreciated maintain same Present value with no DCF generated.
For current asset – total liabilities. These excess cash or cash equivalent is then use to generate DCF (certain % earning with growth of 4 % and discount rate of 4%) with present value discounted at 4 %
I use duration of 10 year for INSAS.
Please pinpoint what wrong with this calculation.
Thank you
10/01/2019 20:52
I receive no further comment from Ricky Yeo. So can you help me as I use intrinsic value of INSAS base on DCF of Sum (assets + future earnings) what does Ricky Yeo mean by “You don't go alter the concept and add NTA into the entire valuation.”
See you at the i3 blogger forum
Thank you
P/S: I just goggled, Fundamental analysis and put my thought into paper on the above article. I will send the article to newly appointed INSAS CEO Dato’ Wong for his comment on coming Monday.
2019-01-12 15:31
the market is right to conclude, 10 years from today...stilll the same company, still the same price.
2019-01-12 15:53
Strange boy....
Choivo Capital
2635 posts
Posted by Choivo Capital > Jan 12, 2019 02:48 PM | Report Abuse
Icon,
I expect to under-perform the index in bull years, and beat it in normal or bear years.
Though tbh, malaysia index is kind of rubbish, so i expect to beat it during bull year.
Over a 20 year period, i expect to beat the index very comfortably. And value investing is the only one that can provide that consistently.
Having said that, if OTB make 100% in bull, you make 50% and i make 20%, with the index say 15%.
I'll be extremely happy. They are worse things in life than to make a little less profit than the
2019-01-12 15:57
10 years from today....NTA may be $ 3 , may be $ 2.....no difference...price will still be $ 1.00 to 60 sen.
NAV is already substantially above $ 3....
why? market is right or market is wrong?
to me , market has valued it just right.......
2019-01-12 15:57
y Icon8888 > Jan 12, 2019 03:57 PM | Report Abuse
I expect to under-perform the index in bull years,
============
anyone who cannot make money from bull market better stay home.....
strange indeed..
2019-01-12 15:58
very much like Oaktree/Howard Marks
Choivo Capital
2635 posts
Posted by Choivo Capital > Jan 12, 2019 02:48 PM | Report Abuse
Icon,
I expect to under-perform the index in bull years, and beat it in normal or bear years.
Though tbh, malaysia index is kind of rubbish, so i expect to beat it during bull year.
Over a 20 year period, i expect to beat the index very comfortably. And value investing is the only one that can provide that consistently.
Having said that, if OTB make 100% in bull, you make 50% and i make 20%, with the index say 15%.
I'll be extremely happy. They are worse things in life than to make a little less profit than the
2019-01-14 17:31
Make less in bull, make more in normal, make the most in bear.
===
qqq3 don't make money from bull market, make money from what?
12/01/2019 16:08
2019-01-15 11:13
A conservative and intelligent investor, during bull markets, will be increasingly conservative with his purchases and cash allocation.
As he knows the high the price is, the higher the risk of permanent loss of capital.
While during bear markets, he will become increasingly aggressive (to a point) as prices fall, as he knows the lower the price, the lower the risk.
What he buys in bear, goes up in normal and bull markets.
I bought a lot in 2018, at bottom or close to bottom prices. My error was not being conservative enough in 2017.
2019-01-15 11:48
choi
every thing is about character, habits and practise.....and of course, easier if don't have to give excuses to customers.....
By having customers, your chances of success is questionable....
By having customers, it becomes excuses for poor performances.
2019-01-15 12:09
furthermore...imagine, having bought low enough and eventually the shares go above water....then how? sell at various stages of recovery ...then what happens? The game don't end there.......
Or like Tan Ten Boo, makes some money in early years.....and miss the market for the subsequent 10 years.
2019-01-15 12:13
They are other opportunities, my capital is small. great industries turn cold and then hot.
I have no idea what you're talking about. Its really a waste of time replying to you.
2019-01-15 12:21
Choi is not here not make money from market. He is here to prove he is right. He needs attention
2019-01-15 13:47
One thing I must admit value investors in i3 are good in England. They can write 10000 words essay with no contents. Aka good buklshitter
2019-01-15 13:51
icon......every educated young man starts out like choi....
But the very good ones learns about reinvestment risks early on......
otherwise, no point one.......it is just up and down, up and down forever.....
are good investors born or created? I think there is a limit education can help. ....so much of it is character.
All the theory in the world also no help if the Q, skill and talent is not there.
2019-01-28 09:55
surprisingly, the most adaptable, open minded and flexible old timers in i3 are two old men
one is qqq3, the other is icon8888
most of the others don't dare to walk out of the room without their warren buffalo book in hand
2019-01-28 10:00
I have seen a lot of successful stock market people...but none of them Quote here quote there....they all have their ways.......but can succeed in a meaningful way if carry 20 or more stocks? I have never seen one before........
2019-01-28 10:13
no need quote here quote there.....some people got very good sense of timing......they managed to avoid all the big drops....a few rounds of that.....they emerge a big winner......why? because these people got very focused portfolios and managed to sell right......
2019-01-28 10:28
It has to be a combination of independent thinking and warren buffalo
Only commies quote here quote there
(That is how the ruskies gone bankrupt)
2019-01-28 10:31
Deng stopped quote here quote there and now they started to make a bit of money
2019-01-28 10:32
knowledge is not skill
Quote here quote there is knowledge not skill.
I know public figures need to quote here quote there to impress others....
quote here quote there is just a lazy way to think.....
2019-01-28 10:47
when you survived the black swan events then only ur skills are credible la..
2019-01-28 16:41
I wonder if, "adaptable, open minded and flexible" is synonym for "No real philosophy" beyond whatever potentially spurious correlations at that point in time.
====
Icon8888 surprisingly, the most adaptable, open minded and flexible old timers in i3 are two old men
one is qqq3, the other is icon8888
most of the others don't dare to walk out of the room without their warren buffalo book in hand
28/01/2019 10:00
2019-02-11 13:46
so...is this guy Time.com 5% or 50% as some other posts suggest?
see....such inconsistencies is a reflection of your true self....not the quote here quote there just for show.......
2019-02-11 13:55
Change in comparative valuation.
It was in my original 59%, than as i buy more of other things and put in more money, it fell to the current 17%.
Of course, i don't expect you to be able to understand it.
Go look at your charts for 8 hours a day pls. Tks.
2019-02-13 00:43
so from 1 jan to now...your Timecom went from 5% to 59% to 17% .....portfolio turnover even faster than mine......then what is the use of the all quote here quote there?
another talk East go West.....talk 3 talk 4....
2019-02-13 01:11
I'm one of those weird people who think that great ideas don't come easily and are pretty rare.
And so, I'm not that keen to share them with anyone other than friends, family or my investors.
Nor am I one of those whose confidence in their research is so low, they feel the need to try and fry up the price.
2019-04-01 21:44
probability
aiya...dont say like that...continue challenge everyone...only then we all can benefit...
your SOP and hibi will do very well...likely top 5 winner of 2019..
post i3 blogger forum presentation here...i want listen how you speak also...
2019-01-12 14:32