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ATFX Market Outlook, 2020 Mar 27

 

Personal opinions today: 

 

The G20 meeting last night, all agreed to contribute a total of $500 million to save the economic capital, coupled with the federal reserve to launch an unlimited amount. Tonight, the U.S. House of Representatives would approve the $2 trillion bailouts, boost U.S. stocks rose for a third straight day. However, US data weakening, the dollar assets outflow, the US index fell, gold prices rose. Oil prices fell by an expected slowdown in demand.

 

Today's market focus on the U.S. February core PCE price index and the Michigan consumer confidence index final value, believe that the currency and gold prices more volatile, please pay attention.

 

[Important financial data and events to watch]

Note: * denotes importance

 

15:00 UK house price index in March *

15:45 French consumer confidence in March * *

20:30 US personal spending in February * *

20:30 US core PCE price index in February * *

22:00 US Michigan consumer confidence index final * * *

Fitch publishes U.K. sovereign credit rating * * *

 

EURUSD 

1.1065/1.1090 resistance

1.0965/1.0940 support

The federal reserve unlimited QE, G20 

 jointly launched anti-epidemic funds, investors’ risk aversion improved. US  jobless claims rose sharply, as investors fretted about the U.S. economy and safe-haven flows out of dollar bonds sent the dollar lower, while the Euro rose. Separately, the Bank of England remains interest rates unchanged and refrained from further easing. Technically, the Euro/dollar 4-hour chart, the trend is testing the golden ratio rebound 50% resistance level 1.1065. If EURUSD breaks the 1.1065 and 1.1090 resistance levels, the Euro/dollar will look up to the 61.8% resistance level of the golden ratio rebound at 1.1165. Please keep an eye on the U.S. core PCE price index and the final reading of the Michigan consumer sentiment index final tonight. The dollar's decline is likely to widen in anticipation of sharply weaker U.S. data, which could push the Euro up to the $1.11 level and test resistance at $1.1165.

 

The British pound to the dollar

1.2285/1.2305 resistance

1.2090/1.2070 support

Earlier, the Bank of England cut interest rates. The pound was supported by investors last night when the Bank of England kept interest rates on hold and stopped short of announcing any other big emergency fund or QE. Separately, the dollar fell and the pound rebounded. Technically, GBPUSD broke 1.2090 resistance, further testing the key 1.22 level. Tonight, the U.S. releases its core PCE price index and the Michigan consumer sentiment index. The dollar's fall is likely to widen in anticipation of sharply weaker U.S. data, which could lead to the pound hitting $1.2285 and $1.2305.

 

Australian dollar/US dollar

0.6145/0.6185 resistance

0.6025/0.5985 support

The dollar fell, indirectly bullish Australian dollar. Technically, the Australian dollar against the US dollar breaks rebound wave 50%, 0.6095 resistance, looking ahead reference resistance 0.6145 and 0.6185. Tonight, the U.S. releases its core PCE price index and the Michigan consumer sentiment index. The dollar's decline is likely to widen in anticipation of sharply weaker U.S. data, which could see the Australian dollar testing the higher resistance.

 

Dollar to Japanese yen

109.70/109.90 resistance

108.00/107.70 support

Risk aversion changed, the dollar fell, USDJPY fell. In early Asian trading, Dow futures and the Nikkei adjusted the gains, while USDJPY lower. Dow futures and the Nikkei fell, with the dollar testing support at 107.70. Key data from the US tonight, if Dow futures continue to fall and the dollar/yen follows the trend, the chances of the dollar/yen trading below the 107 level could increase.

 

US dollar/Canadian dollar

1.4175/1.4195 resistance

1.4005/1.3985 support level

Weaker U.S. data last night sent the U.S. dollar lower, allowing it to trade at $1.41 against the Canadian dollar and below $1.40. Tonight, the U.S. releases its core PCE price index and the Michigan consumer sentiment index. In anticipation of sharply weaker U.S. data, the dollar's decline is likely to widen, USDCAD would test support at $1.3985. As the downward trend in crude oil prices is likely to continue, the Canadian dollar is expected to see limited gains, more likely as oil prices fall, with the U.S. dollar trading at $1.41 to $1.42.

 

US crude oil futures

24.95/25.25 resistance

22.55/22.30 support

No news from OPEC. The next OPEC and oil group meeting is expected to take place as soon as in May. We believe there is buying support in the short term for U.S. crude between $23 and $22, after which we could see resistance above $25.95 or $26.25 and above $28 or $29 above $26.25. If U.S. data is weak tonight, the oil will test key support at $22.

 

Gold

1639/1642 resistance

1600/1597 support

The G20 meeting last night agreed to provide a total of $500 million to rescue the economy, and the federal reserve introduced unlimited funds, the U.S. jobless claims rose sharply, prompting gold prices to rise. But global stock markets rebounded on central bank rescue measures, limiting gold's gains. Gold and Silver prices are now expected to downward. Preliminary estimates the gold price to test at $1,596. Silver was capped at $14.65 resistance and looked down on support at $13.98.

 

Dow Jones industrial average futures US30

22375/22665 resistance

21950/21625 support

Global central bank rescue measures and broad monetary policy, Dow futures last night tested 22665 resistance. But investors worried that the coronavirus outbreak was not abating in the United States and Europe, and Dow futures had limited gains. If U.S. consumer data is weak tonight, Dow futures could test the 21000 levels. Add to that the possibility of weekend unwinding on Friday and Dow futures have a chance to fall.

 

BTCUSD:

6800/ 7000 resistance

5850 / 5700 support 

The federal reserve launches No limited QE program. Technically, the bitcoin price would rebound. The bitcoin price is looking for $6800  or $7000 resistance. Then, if it breaks $7000, the bitcoin price would test $10,000.