Mudajaya's recent earnings disappointments saw its stock price weakening to a multi-year low (5-year low: RM1.80). After the 2Q results, MDJ lost another 17% to current price, vis-à-vis our NTA-derived price target of RM2.25. With earnings under pressure (at least for the next few quarters), a natural question to ask is whether value is emerging with the recent price collapse? We start by relooking at the MDJ's main assets namely, properties such as Menara Mudajaya (NLA 125ksf, Mutiara Damansara) and Crest Building (NSA 225ksf, Jln Ampang) and its 1440-MW power plant in India, with the latter alone constituting 60% of its NTA currently. By just pegging the Indian power plant at book value and revalued property assets at market value, the RNAV is estimated at RM2.90 already. That said, we prefer to err on the side of caution, and wait for Mudajaya to deliver both in job replenishment and commercialization of the Indian power plant (targeted end-2014) before we change our stance.

Property assets worth RM336m, are derived namely from the Group‟s HQ i.e. Menara Mudajaya at Mutiara Damansara and Crest Building at Jalan Ampang. We understand that currently, Menara Mudajaya is fully occupied, with recent rental reached as high as RM4.90psf. With 125k sf NLA, we estimate Menara Mudajaya is worth RM100m at market value (at RM700psf). Meanwhile, Crest Building which has net saleable area of 225k sf (Office: 150k sf; Condo: 75k sf) is estimated to be worth RM270m if priced at RM1100 psf at market value. These two assets are worth RM0.63/share.

1440-MW Indian Power Plant is valued at RM679m in book value, with RM262m of unrealized profits, or total investments of RM941m. The build-own-operate power plant is expected to yield RM70m during its concession period of 20 years. Just by assuming the asset at book value, the power plant is worth RM1.75/share.

Construction businesses. If assuming RM700m sustainable revenue p.a., 6% PBT and capitalized at 10x PER, the construction business is worth another RM0.60/share. All told, the blended fair value for Mudajaya is estimated to be worth RM3.50 (with RM2.90 from property and concession assets and another RM0.60 from construction business).

Maintain Neutral. Until earnings start to show signs of recovery, we maintain our Neutral stance and RM2.25 TP which is pegged on parity to the NTA. Job wins which are expected in the next few months might create buying interest but weak earnings, at least in the next 3-4 quarters would mean stock performance will be capped near term in our view.  

Source: PublicInvest Research - 24 Sep 2014