PETRONM: What to expect in Q4 2016

Petron Malaysia (PETRONM) 

1) Business background
The oil and gas industry is usually divided into three major sectors: upstream, midstream and downstream. The upstream oil sector is commonly known as the exploration and production sector which is also the one suffering when oil price drops.

PETRON is in mid/downstream business.
It sells processed petroleum product which is the main source of energy still in Malaysia/ South East Asia.
It is in a very different ball game from upstream. When oil price drops, profit margin actually increases as retail price of petroleum drop is not as huge as the crude oil. 
This can be seen as the profit picks up since Q1 2015.

2) Competition
PETRONAS DAGANGAN (PETDAG) which is in the same industry, is trading at P/E 30, dividend yield 2.5%
It should not take long for market to realize PETRON is a better option with P/E at 9.5 today and dividend yield at 4%

3) Valuation & What to look out in Q4 results

Historical EPS

Currently priced at 5 dollar, PETRON trailing P/E is at about 9.5. (last 4 quarters earning is 52.3 cent)
That is assuming Q4 2016 to be same as Q4 2015 which is not the case.
In Q4 2015, there was a 40-day mandatory maintenance at its Port Dickson Refinery. This is a activity mandated to perform maintenance once in several years.