My Trading Adventure
Gold
CP TEH
Publish date: Wed, 16 May 2012, 11:02 PM
CP TEH
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All the writings in this weblog are mainly for PLEASURE reading purposes. I am in NO position to recommend a call(BUY/SELL). Please check with those know-hows before you make a decision. Yes, I am just a learner, with only five years experiences in KLSE. So, please BEAR with me.
Gold Tumbles Into Bear Market on Concern Greece May Leave Euro
By Phoebe Sedgman and Glenys Sim | Bloomberg
Gold entered a so-called bear market, dropping for a fourth day, after Greek leaders failed to form a government, increasing speculation that the country may quit the euro and driving the Dollar Index (DXY) to a record advance.
Immediate-delivery gold lost as much as 0.7 percent to $1,533 an ounce, more than 20 percent below its all-time high last September and fulfilling the common definition of the market slump. That's the cheapest since Dec. 29. The precious metal traded at $1,535.75 at 2:01 p.m. in Singapore.
A second Greek vote will be held, possibly next month, as gridlock followed a May 6 ballot in which voters rejected the austerity program that underpins the country's bailout accords. German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble called the new election a referendum on whether Greece stays in the euro.
"It's a risk-off environment," Peter Hickson, head of commodities research at UBS AG, said in a Bloomberg Television interview. "People are concerned about liquidity and they're going to take security in the U.S. dollar."
Since peaking at $1,921.15 an ounce last year, spot bullion has exceeded the 20 percent decline twice before, in both September and December, and is 1.8 percent lower in 2012 after gaining for the past 11 years.
June-delivery bullion lost as much as 1.6 percent to $1,532.70 an ounce in New York, declining more than 20 percent from its record. Futures have also dropped into a bear market twice since reaching the record last year.
ETP Holdings
The Dollar Index, a six-currency gauge, climbed for a 14th day, the longest winning run since its inception in 1973. The euro dropped to $1.2699, the weakest since Jan. 17.
Holdings in gold-backed exchange-traded products fell 0.1 percent to 2,379.367 metric tons yesterday, according to data tracked by Bloomberg. Investor George Soros increased his holdings in the SPDR Gold Trust in the first quarter, while John Paulson maintained his stake, filings showed yesterday.
Spot gold's so-called 14-day relative strength index dropped to 21.07, below the level of 30 that some analysts regard as signaling a rebound. One ounce of gold bought as much as 56.0702 ounces of silver today, the most since Jan. 9, according to Bloomberg data.
Spot silver fell as much as 1.3 percent to $27.36 an ounce, the lowest level since Dec. 30, and was at $27.4675. It's the metal's eighth decline, the worst run since Sept. 11, 2008.
Platinum, the only precious metal still higher this year, was little changed at $1,431 an ounce after dropping to $1,430.75, the lowest level since Jan. 10. Palladium dropped as much as 0.6 percent to $592.15 an ounce, before trading at $594.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
GLD : At USD150 at the moment, as gold is going through a huge correction at the moment. Jim Rogers said he will buy more gold if gold price drops toi USD1200 levels.
It is time to get into gold again ... or do you think gold has lost its glitters?
By Phoebe Sedgman and Glenys Sim | Bloomberg
Gold entered a so-called bear market, dropping for a fourth day, after Greek leaders failed to form a government, increasing speculation that the country may quit the euro and driving the Dollar Index (DXY) to a record advance.
Immediate-delivery gold lost as much as 0.7 percent to $1,533 an ounce, more than 20 percent below its all-time high last September and fulfilling the common definition of the market slump. That's the cheapest since Dec. 29. The precious metal traded at $1,535.75 at 2:01 p.m. in Singapore.
A second Greek vote will be held, possibly next month, as gridlock followed a May 6 ballot in which voters rejected the austerity program that underpins the country's bailout accords. German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble called the new election a referendum on whether Greece stays in the euro.
"It's a risk-off environment," Peter Hickson, head of commodities research at UBS AG, said in a Bloomberg Television interview. "People are concerned about liquidity and they're going to take security in the U.S. dollar."
Since peaking at $1,921.15 an ounce last year, spot bullion has exceeded the 20 percent decline twice before, in both September and December, and is 1.8 percent lower in 2012 after gaining for the past 11 years.
June-delivery bullion lost as much as 1.6 percent to $1,532.70 an ounce in New York, declining more than 20 percent from its record. Futures have also dropped into a bear market twice since reaching the record last year.
ETP Holdings
The Dollar Index, a six-currency gauge, climbed for a 14th day, the longest winning run since its inception in 1973. The euro dropped to $1.2699, the weakest since Jan. 17.
Holdings in gold-backed exchange-traded products fell 0.1 percent to 2,379.367 metric tons yesterday, according to data tracked by Bloomberg. Investor George Soros increased his holdings in the SPDR Gold Trust in the first quarter, while John Paulson maintained his stake, filings showed yesterday.
Spot gold's so-called 14-day relative strength index dropped to 21.07, below the level of 30 that some analysts regard as signaling a rebound. One ounce of gold bought as much as 56.0702 ounces of silver today, the most since Jan. 9, according to Bloomberg data.
Spot silver fell as much as 1.3 percent to $27.36 an ounce, the lowest level since Dec. 30, and was at $27.4675. It's the metal's eighth decline, the worst run since Sept. 11, 2008.
Platinum, the only precious metal still higher this year, was little changed at $1,431 an ounce after dropping to $1,430.75, the lowest level since Jan. 10. Palladium dropped as much as 0.6 percent to $592.15 an ounce, before trading at $594.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
GLD : At USD150 at the moment, as gold is going through a huge correction at the moment. Jim Rogers said he will buy more gold if gold price drops toi USD1200 levels.
It is time to get into gold again ... or do you think gold has lost its glitters?
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Discussions
Be the first to like this. Showing 20 of 20 comments
George Sooro said in 2011 that the right time to buy gold is when it drop to USD 1200 per oz. I think he is still right.
2012-05-17 12:15
I do not believe that gold will go down to USD1,200. No chance because too much paper money have been printed all over the world.
Very interesting to look at gold equities now. The whole idea of European crisis is to give a short term immediate boost to USD (or US Treasury). This in turn negates the price of gold. If we were to refer to the HUI index for gold mining equities, we will see that the price of gold mining companies have crashed substantially to near bottom. In fact this is the best time to look for mutual funds that invest in gold mining companies. I can see that those gold equity funds traded under OSK-UOB and Ambank are at all time low. Sooner or perhaps later, US will start to talk about QE one more time and USD will start to weaken fast - Then windfall comes to push gold price up leading to price of gold equities up as well. Plenty of bargains now for gold equities.
Gold will go up above USD1,650 instead of going down.
2012-05-17 21:35
It cost more than USD1,400 to process and market would be in crisis again if it allows to drop below cost !!!! If current Euro storm is going to be seriously heavy , GOLD will head North .... I hope !!!
2012-05-17 22:19
No lah, gold mining process cost is about 1/2 of USD1,400 or maybe less. Profit margin for mining companies quite high based on current gold price. Gold is still a good hedge while there is a lot of fear in the global market.
Just watch out China. When it starts to buy a lot again, it will move up to above USD1,700 quite fast.
While gold price has shot up a lot, gold mining shares have gone the other way. When this is happening, it is best to catch gold mining shares at the bottom. I am sure it is at the bottom or near bottom. This type of bottom comes only once in a blue moon. There is at least 15 % to 20 % upside for gold equities in 2012.
By the way, US is currently pondering on another round of QE if there is no resolution in Europe. That means more paper money in the world which further reduces the purchasing power on cash. Go for gold or gold equities.
2012-05-18 09:24
How about silver? 1 oz of gold = USD1.5k - 1.6k, silver only USD27+ to 28+... additionally silver has more industry usage than gold.
2012-05-18 09:33
Maybe someone can help this secret code 90754248 to tell him about silver.
I am no expert in silver.
Gold is real cash and easy to pack up and run when all the global mess appears. Silver has industrial uses but when world economics slow down, demand drops and therefore silver may take longer time to go up or fluctuate positively upwards.
While I am talking, gold price has shot up to USD1,575. I refer to the global gold equities index and most counters shot up between 4 % to 6 % within the day. There is more room to go up even more when they start to talk about Spain (after Greece). This turmoil will cause more panic and looking at the rate USD is running up - it looks dangerously overvalue which artificially cause gold to be undervalue. Then US Government drops the economic bomb to the world by announcing QE which will slump the USD. when this happens gold moves up to USD1,600, USD1,700, USD1,800 and go and on.
The fastest way to make money now is to invest in gold equities and they are dirt cheap !!!
2012-05-18 10:40
Hello Su Jackie & all at forum,
Sorry for my ignorance, but how does one invest in gold equities? Do I open a gold account in Public Bank.??
Sometime back I once bought gold bars and lost money on it as the company woundup. So I'm a bit skeptic.
Tq for any advice & regards
2012-05-18 11:04
gold is a commodity compared to the USD (fiat currency)or any currencies. what's happening is high risk aversion over the Greece inability to form a government (calling for new elections).
if Greece defaults on its debt and exit the Euro zone. there is strong possibilities that Spain and Ireland may follow suit. the contagion effect on the European Union and other markets will be severely tested.
Germany and France do not see eye to eye on the EU austerity policies. both IMF and ECB heads is nominated by Germany. it will complicated the entire decision process. the EU blocks consist of 17 different members.
in turbulent times, people will look at the USD and Gold as a safe haven. this is one of the reason why there is strong a demand for US bonds. hopefully GOLD will also benefit.
2012-05-18 11:10
One problem with gold jewellery in Malaysia is that your wife and girlfriend can only wear them at home or go in and out of the bank to see that they are still intact there. It is not even safe to wear them during wedding days. when you wear then make sure you look around there is no motor cyclists around. I have got no idea how we keep physical gold safely at home.
Be careful about all those gold bars etc. you never know what is between the first layer of gold plates and the middle part of the bars.
I am sure the other safe bet is the gold investment serviced by the bank but i am not sure the rates offered. i am sure banks are never cheap and that is why we get very low rates even for deposits.
The other mode that I know is through ETPs or so called ETFs. I am not sure if we can invest in gold ETF in Malaysia. Check Spore. I know one can invest Gold ETF in Australia and NZ. ETFs invest in gold bullion and this is the hedge in gold against inflation. you get no dividends because they invest in physical gold.
The other alternative which I like in investment in gold equities. This mean investing in companies that mine gold.
This route can be via investing in local funds and investing costs or entry cost can be quite cheap.
Good luck
2012-05-18 11:24
Fact is, Gold - on Kitco, has been steadily dropping, which is puzzling if the demand for gold is high...
would anyone be able to explain this.
also, there are many ways to invest in Gold, gold traders do it by hedging on gold prices at kitco and warehousing prices.
seek out gold traders, they can explain how they do it.
it is a reasonable low risk investment portfolio, which you would only gain if your volume is substantial (millions$)
2012-05-18 11:38
When gold profit you sell and make as invesment..
When gold drop buy and keep for you saving..
Simple as that. :p
2012-05-18 11:40
Jackie Su -Public bank , CIMB, Maybank, UOB Bank offers Gold saving account. More reliable compared to those Gold Bars (Multi level Marketing Scheme). Banks spread between buying and selling price is between RM 5-00 per gram. Minimum investment is (start off) 10 gm. there after you can top up. but remember no interest is paid on the Gold saving account
2012-05-18 11:41
Thanks a lot for the keen participation to contribute points.
It is for the first time I embarked into gold mining shares 2 to three days ago. Only yesterday, I heard for the first time after a while that gold has spiked upwards quite a lot. I believe I should have made a gain of at least between 3 % to 4 % on investment I mean on paper. If you refer to HUI and and XAU global indices, they are all in the green contrary to the global equity market.
I hope the price go up further and I am only satisfied with a gain of more than 10 % before I cash out.
2012-05-18 12:17
bros - what do u think abt buying pohkong or tomei counters? how to get to gold mining shares?
2012-05-18 12:22
I openned a gold investment account with PBB in year 2008, the price was ranging from RM80+ to RM90+ per gram. 2 or 3 years later, sold at RM130+ as thougth it would not goes up furhter.
2012-05-18 14:53
Besides Public Gold , if i plan to buy from bank , which is better in terms of SPREAD and ANNUAL FEES?
2012-05-18 15:35
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CS Tan
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This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
Jake
Jittery in market has caused everything to fall..its insane but to the smart investor, there are lots of cherries to pick...quietly.
2012-05-17 00:53