My Trading Adventure
#2 : Prepare cash
CP TEH
Publish date: Tue, 26 Jul 2016, 02:41 PM
CP TEH
0 2,918
All the writings in this weblog are mainly for PLEASURE reading purposes. I am in NO position to recommend a call(BUY/SELL). Please check with those know-hows before you make a decision. Yes, I am just a learner, with only five years experiences in KLSE. So, please BEAR with me.
2.15pm : Got a comment ... and also an e-mail ... asking me, why do I need to sell 'everything'?
My next class is 2.45pm ... so, I hope I could answer in a shorter post. I m nearly 50 ... very cheong-hei type.
First of all ... my pointers #2 : Accumulation of bullets. If you have missed the post, I will try to find it and place it in 'page'.
One of the things I need to do is : SELL
I have three options : 1. Overdraft 2. Re-finance 3. SELL of my current apartment. It has doubled in price.
By selling it off, I could clear off my housing-loan and having some cash in hands!! Then, I will put the money safely into ASB (giving a good 7%) while waiting for crash!! Not to be used.
It will take me some time for me to be able to advertise, getting an agent and sell it off, anyway. So ... hope it wont take tooo long and market crashing before my cash is readied?
As for the office, decision to stop renting the office and sell off the furnitures (tables, chairs, whiteboard and everything!) so that I could re-coup some cash ... and not needing to pay monthly rentals(plus bills).
Whether it is worth or not ... I m still not sure. I don't know. I m just executing my plans ... preparing for the crash. Whether markets will crash or not, I do not know either. What I do know is ... IF ONE DAY market crashing down, I m prepared ... with cash/bullets to buy HUGELY.
Look ... there are two VITAL points to capitalise in market-crash :
1. SELL before it crashes
2. BUY when it is recovering
These simple points ... but 80% of retailers WILL miss ... and history will repeat itself.
Majority of retailers will STUCK inside stocks .... and could not cut-loss when market-crashing. A good example is O&G counters ... there are still SO SO many of them stuck inside. PROPERTY counters too ... the rally was over long time ago but they are still holding to the paper-loss. The PENNY-GST rally ... over too. The export-oriented stocks ... some still rallying ... some in downtrend.
MANY still inside .... buying yet failing to sell. Failing to cut-loss or sell befoe market-crash is a huge mistake as violated the pointer #1 : Capital Preservation.
Ok ... do let me know if anyone wish to buy my foldable bike for half-price ... or my books too. I will live my life frugally ... and in minimal-expenses ... and I told my wife/kids too. No more dinners @ restaurants ... no more expensive toys etc etc.
I need the CASH.
How do you see a RM10 note?
I m seeing it as RM20 to RM50 or RM100 ... as I could use it to generate profit ... during the crash.
So ... my RM100k might turn to be RM500k after the crash, see?
Do be prepared ... prepare as much cash as possible. SAVE ... be frugal. Live way below our means ... at least for this coming years .... I hope it wont crash soon too. I need to prepare .... more cash.
So ... I will be working at nights and Sundays too ... giving tuition and teach trading.
Time to go ... to give tuition ... to earn that CASH and SAVE inside the bank.
TEH
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Discussions
1 person likes this. Showing 50 of 56 comments
My strategy is very simple
I invest with my "house money"
Dunno what is house money?
So you are not even an investor
2016-07-26 15:44
hello ipomember .. thanks for sharing !! yes to be a contrarian is easy said than done especially when market is really crushed by the bears :( more so for newbies like us who have not witnessed such catastrophe before ...
2016-07-26 15:46
Most of the foreigners have already sold out. And local funds holding on to most of the blue chips. I do not think the market will crash like that in 1997 when a huge chunk of shares in KLSE is owned by foreigners.
Crashes are few and far between. When the moment comes, you must be brave enough to seize the moment. But your timing must be right. When the speculative attack began on the Thai Bath in Mar 1997, I sold off all my shares n bought it back on 1st Sept 1997. If u have bought in between, u might also end up selling at loss because the shares fell as if the market has not bottom.
2016-07-26 16:08
Those who opt to hold the shares thru' up n downs normally diversify their holdings.
But from my experience, diversification increase the risk. No matter how u diversify, it does not help much if the crash is like in 1997. I choose to sell off my entire holdings n wait to buy it back.
2016-07-26 16:12
ipomember is corrrect re share fundamnentals. Crash or not if the company is strong, the business will not be so much affected e.g. Nestle, Dlady and Panamy. These solid companies keep paying good dividends because of good profits. And their prices keep going up. So if market crashes, and their prices go down, it won't go down that much. You can buy more since it will be cheaper. No need to sell good counters especially those paying good dividends.
In December 2014, I sold off all my shares (mostly good) because one top local value investor said crash/recession is coming soon. I regretted my decision because 6 months later the market shot up! I jumped in and bought back some of the good shares I sold. Though I bought them at a higher price, I am glad they have since gone up e.g. Dlady, Panamy and Padini. I also bought Scientx, Apollo, SAM and Aji.(Of course I also have some losers). If I have kept cash and wait for the crash, I would be losing out even with 4% FD.
So, don't sell blindly.
2016-07-26 16:16
all great sharing .. very informative ! good for inexperienced bursa newcomers :)
2016-07-26 16:20
Really I do not consider 2014 a crash. Most of the counters staged a v shape reversal n I managed to make 1k even with the lousy counter FGV.
2016-07-26 16:21
We play the same shares over n over. Shares move in cycles. Once its 5 impulse wave is completed, the next cycle is down. So there is a saying "there is a time to sow n a time to unfold".
2016-07-26 16:26
to time the market. you need a magic crystal ball. nonetheless, only trade with your excess cash not sell your house . what happen after selling the house the market goes higher. murphy law.
we are living in a challenging times with lots of uncertainities. but danger create opportunities. it's up to us to make use of this opportunities (to create value ).
LKS ( Hongkong superman ) also time wrongly what about we mortals. he bet big on Europe but with Brexit and the IS killings ( he needs to hold on to his investment ) DOw was not everybody cup of tea. but look at DOW historically high.
Cheers. last reminder dont sell your house , car or your w_fe etc
2016-07-26 16:27
My strategy now is to keep some cash for any big market fall and buy more of my winners if they drop badly and value emerges. Why abandon winning horses?
2016-07-26 16:32
very good discussion / advice instead of just bombarding mr teh .. this is beneficial for us !
2016-07-26 16:35
Ttb has been predicting the market since since 2011.....so far belum kena lagi
2016-07-26 16:36
One example, BP (British Petroleum). It is first wave started in abt 1982 n it completed its final 5th wave in abt 2006 by which time it started to correct.
2016-07-26 16:37
maybe we should look at this market objectively. minimized your portfolios to only 4- 5 counters. do not overdiversify many counters. hold on to those counters making profits and cut those loss making trades. this my personal view.
2016-07-26 16:39
If u started yr working life abt 1982 n u have bought this share, u would have a great time savouring its dividends n the share weathered most of the market downturns including 1987.
2016-07-26 16:41
murali,
Yes, plenty sine IPO days and add over the years. Average @1.82. Still in the money. If liquidate worth 3.05. Okaylah. But I am open to forummers' recommendations like Icon8888 (Aji), KCChong (Magni, Scientx, SAM, Padini,Perstima, Apollo,etc) plus my own study (UPA, Panamy, Dlady). Keep some FDs and ready cash for future oppportunities. Keep reading i13 articles,views. Win-win situation.
2016-07-26 16:44
Icap (TTB) missed out on the market by being too cautious. you have your good points being conservative ( but at the same time ) strong possibilities of not hitting the jack-pot.
Holding cash during recession applies when there is a sustained drop over a long period of times. with zero interest ( Japan, Europe , US ) a marginal rate rise actually helps to stimulate markets.
China, Britain and Germany are all armed to teeth ( Monetary policies ) to
kick start their country's economy. people are all chasing for higher rates across the globe
2016-07-26 16:46
Today, BP's glorious days are already over. Kodak Eastman ended bankrupt. Everything is transitory. If u started yr working life abt 1982, today u would have reached retirement age. And u would have fallen in love with the share and refusing to part with it.
2016-07-26 16:50
Krugman said that zero interest rates will be the new normal. Perhaps Fed will just keep postponing the rate hike.
2016-07-26 16:51
Watch out if the market really crash this time may be different, it may be deeper and last longer.
2016-07-26 17:20
Sell sell...
Kwap no money
Kwsp no money
Pensioner still need to spend their pension
2016-07-26 17:27
Pensioner can take their money and spend oversea
Because their money why not?
2016-07-26 17:39
Small fund also just take other people money
They take the profit and give you risk
If they die they can run another new fund
While people die they cannot revive
2016-07-26 17:45
You see there is 1500 fund in this country
More than the plc in the bursa
Fund is bigger than plc amazing
2016-07-26 17:46
agree n disagree but every 10 yrs market will crash , 1985-86,97-98,o8-09,
next will be 17-18.
2016-07-26 21:01
ha ha ha very impatience fellow, so when market crash, he will jump in and get stuck all his cash in the stock market. so the family will go suffer together with him. he has to live way below his means. not so clever. he is dreaming anyway
2016-07-27 08:41
Buy house only
See people like Japanese no need handicap also can survive
2016-07-27 13:21
Aeon no need handicap
Strawberry generation all want spoonfeed cannot survive
2016-07-27 13:22
Guys i know we are impossible to predict market crash on time but we can always follow the action of smart money. ;)
2016-07-27 13:30
smart money hide ther money trail very well unless you are with them you wont know what's happening. i always believed do the things you know best. warren buffee missed out on microsoft but saved on dotcom bust. Buffee says he doesnt know a thing about dotcom business that's the reason he stay out of the frenzy.
2016-07-27 15:02
Time to go ... to give tuition ... to earn that CASH and SAVE inside the bank. TEH
You give tuition on what? On how to be crazy, predict when the market going to crash and when the market going to go up. Talk and Can't do that is why you give tuition to tell people to do something that is what can talk but can't do?
2016-07-27 16:00
From the way you write your experience, I know you are a 愛講不愛做的人 (self-proclaimed smart ass), for that also you need to give tuition, tell them how to be like you.
2016-07-27 16:04
I will only invest when fund manager jump from their high rise
By then u can collect his loots that is left behind
Remember no blood no gain
2016-07-27 16:08
Bargain hunting time is over. Just because bargain hunng time is over you also don't need to sell your old underwear.No wonder someone once said in i3 forum you are very insercure and sell people out very fast when they are of no use to you. Time to go ... to give tuition ... to earn that CASH and SAVE inside the bank. TEH. Exploiting people and ask them to buy your underwear.
2016-07-27 16:16
The stock market is an open book. Only it depends on your knowledge to successfully digest the info available.
They can hide their money trails, but they can't hide the action of their money.
2016-07-27 16:17
Be greedy if you are not fearful, but be fearful if you are greedy. Someone is sitting in a shed now because someone planted a tree a long time ago. You can not choose when to buy stocks but you can choose what stocks to buy provided you have your own ideas and you don't follow other people's advices especially from those you pick up from tuition center that teaches you to become 愛講不愛做的人(a self-proclaimed smart ass). You are not sure if they are trying to sell you their old underwear or not.
2016-07-27 16:38
I always heard people say when is the best time to invest?
They will say now is always the best time, sound true because it is long term, but they don't tell you to invest a small portion of the money slowly, many times they will like you to sailing all your family like a boss, as long as they get the commission based on the percentage of your money, the more the better, fund manager don't care about what time.
2016-07-27 21:42
Pensioner is very good target they are so very wealthy with cash, 500k? 600k? No problem, they got cash and they can always everytime now is the best time to invest.
2016-07-27 21:44
It is good to wait many pensioners loss all their pension and put it on newspaper cry father cry mother, that is the time investor come to collect the loots.
2016-07-27 21:47
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This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
murali
Tuition biz closed shop...cohort also closed shop....now putting all his dreams in market crash....hoping that could make a change in his life forever
2016-07-26 15:42