Dear Reader,
Hi. good day to you.
Today( March 26') I would like to share with you about the market outlook based on opportunist's thinking. In this blog three(3) topics that will be discussed :
1) Evening update on US market (March 26' 2015)
2) Why recent Crude oil rally cannot sustain?
3) KLCI Index outlook and the next move of foreign fund
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1) Evening update on US market (March 26' 2015)
The major U.S. index futures are pointing to notably lower opening on Thursday, with the negative mood exacerbated by fears of a hit to global growth. After Greece, the Middle East is back on the radar, with Yemen being the epicenter of the strife in the region. Saudi Arabia and a few regional allies have begun air strikes against the Houthi rebels in Yemen, who recently overthrew the nation's president last month. The geopolitical crisis has sent safe havens soaring and risk assets plummeting. A report showing a bigger than expected drop in jobless claims is having little impact on the markets. The markets across the Atlantic are also experiencing a steep sell-off, while crude oil prices are rallying.
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2) Why recent Crude oil rally cannot sustain
Crude oil prices rally from USD45 to USD52 (13%) is merely speculative and not driven by normal course of demand and supply. There are two manipulators here :-
Figure 1: Fortune Global Top 10 Companies
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3) KLCI Index outlook and the next move of foreign fund
My humblest observation based on opportunism perspective :-
Figure 2: Top 10 Constituents of KLCI Index
Figure 3: 13 Counters must increase 4.03% for each in share price to bring up KLCI index to 1850 point
From Daily and Weekely chart, we can hardly find the hidden positive signal for the index to rise.
Figure 4: Daily chart of KLCI Index
Based on the daily chart on Figure 4 you will see the similarity of these two blue frames. Both also have similar head and tail and very likely the history will be repeated. As a market opportunist I will take proactive step to prepare for the immediate downturn start from next week. However, those experienced TA analysts will start to trade sideway or concentrate on range bound trading (1800-1826 index point).
Figure 5: Weekly chart of KLCI Index
Figure 5 presented to us that the weekly chart is very likely to repeat what was going on in October last year as you can see two boxes behave the same pattern. From the left frame it was traded with two candles down following by two chandles UP before it plunged down to 1730. The same pattern repeated in March when the two candles already finished their basement and now turned to two UP (last UP in next week) before it plunges down again.
more info about put warrants you may refer this: http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/duitPUTwarrants/
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Happy reading!
Created by duitKWSPkita | Aug 15, 2015
duit dearest ... read and digested every point !!! thanks a mil for taking your time in doing this analysis for us :) i have de-massived (emailed) for ya .. hope u like it !!!! oh noooo ... ps do not apologize :( am so grateful that u sacrifice rest / sleep for your fellow forummers !!!!! SALUTE ..
Posted by duitKWSPkita > Mar 27, 2015 05:24 PM | Report Abuse
Dear lovely Connie,
Thanks for all the inputs. Sorry to let u disappointed again with the massive untidy write up.
2015-03-27 20:04
OMG duit ... i never tot of this really :):) learnt something priceless from ya !!! once again, xie xie ni
Calculation :-
KLCI 1818 to 1850 => 1.7%
17 counters in OnG / Banking / Palm Oil = 57.85% (Figure 3)
13 counters in Telecom / Utilities / Healthcare = 42.15%
Assuming 17 counters = status quo, 13 counters need to increase by 4.03% to achieve KLCI target of 1.7% (42.15% x 4.03% = 1.68%)
2015-03-27 20:07
oh optimusprime .. i trust you !!! duitKWSPkita has high regard for you :) he said u are a very skillful TRADER !!!!
2015-03-27 20:17
Bro simon84, wat big show? u got something to share?
"simon84: Duit lets fight together start by next week... NExt week got big show to see .. :)
27/03/2015 18:19"
2015-03-27 22:13
BroDuit....ur dissappearance is to assist us in this meaningful write up?appreciate greatly...looking forward to hear from ya soon... :D
2015-03-27 22:16
Thanks lovely Connie for the editing work. I have edited my article accordingly.
Appreciated it. Now reader can take a quick glance on our jointly article............
Posted by connie > Mar 27, 2015 08:04 PM | Report Abuse
duit dearest ... read and digested every point !!! thanks a mil for taking your time in doing this analysis for us :) i have de-massived (emailed) for ya .. hope u like it !!!! oh noooo ... ps do not apologize :( am so grateful that u sacrifice rest / sleep for your fellow forummers !!!!! SALUTE ..
2015-03-27 22:30
Thanks my dearest fighters ImCK, Simon84 and Optismuprime for reading. I am so happy to see you all give me support...
Opts bro, will discuss with you next day. Appreciate your feedback indeed.
2015-03-27 22:35
Dunknow bro,
Very sooner I will read your write up in i3 forum..... Promise ya...
Posted by Dunknow > Mar 27, 2015 10:16 PM | Report Abuse
BroDuit....ur dissappearance is to assist us in this meaningful write up?appreciate greatly...looking forward to hear from ya soon... :D
2015-03-27 22:36
thanks skyhawk for reading.... YES, I read your blogspot for more references .....
I agreed with you on Oil and Gas's bottomest price that's why never mention of how many percent drop from OnG sector. Some are already in my watch list. But I will not tolerance with banking sector as per described in y article.
brother, one thing we must take into consideration is with the precaution steps by government the INDEX will never plunge down to below 1700 pts again.
cheers!!!!!!!!!!! This time we will run to the same end point.....
Posted by skyhawk > Mar 27, 2015 07:30 PM | Report Abuse
duit...tks for sharing...but do not agree with u on O&G sector simply bcos most oil counters hv hit d bottom n a NEW SET EW WAVES r in progress...in fact it is d best time to pick them up.As for d index linked stocks...wat goes up must also come down,as a matter of fact hv predicted d current corrections at my blog :):):)....silkyhawk.blogspot.com
2015-03-27 22:41
r°Moi,
Not I dunwan to alert but this is purely for reading material. Who can give 100% wonderful market outlook? Definitely not me.
No worries.
Posted by r°Moi > Mar 27, 2015 07:37 PM | Report Abuse
Next time... give 7 days notice before posting something lethal like this ok.. ; )
2015-03-27 22:42
WOW! In agreement with you. I have seen that kind of chart previously in a video, he also said the same, history likes to repeat itself. But he also said, when market is in beary mood, there is possibilities to make at least 14% profit. I don't understand the whole video, just watch because I need to know. Thank you for great reminder! One question if you don't mind to answer, you've mentioned before, when mother counter is green, warrant will be red and vice versa. Is that mean, warrant counter will be green when index is down? I am referring to putwarrants blog. Please explain. I am really new, please bear with me. Thank you.
B 2) Critical level also can be called as psychological level of KLCI index is also considered as the prime determinant in put warrants speculation decision. Figure 3 presents to you that we have about 6 critical levels to monitor should you want to maximize your put warrants gain.
For example FBMKLCI -HG together with its exercise price of 1800. You will notice that the buying interest is not as attractive as FBMKLCI- HB (exercise price 1880) when the KLCI index is above 1800 points. It is because above the 1800 line FBMKLCI-HG can be valued as blank paper (no value) so would you want to bet on losing money item? However, when the KLCI index plunge down to 1799 pts the interest of speculation on FBMKLCI-HG getting higher because it has the value for speculation thereafter. The same theory is applied to FBMKLCI-HJ (exercise 1730) & FBMKLCI-HK (exercise 1735). I must say sorry that in this write up I am not going to explain in detail how high high the chances are that the KLCI index will breache 1730 points.
2015-03-27 23:50
My dearest broduit....haha,can meh?not even 1% of u wor...anyhow,my great respect to u,no word can actually describe that!salute and keep up ur good workssss....nite...take a good rest after so much of hard works.....zzzzz
2015-03-28 00:55
Keep up the good work,,,bro duit...but sometime do see fundamental and not chart..But why many counter all new high (especially mesdaq and penny)
We must see
1) chart
2) fundamental
3) theme play
If you are long term investor (> 3 months), dip is time to buy.
Regards
2015-03-28 10:35
Stay invested in quality and growth stocks at all times, and by the way...shouldn't mkt timers b contrarians?!
2015-03-28 11:47
Abang Duit tips kao kao, kita short futures, buy put warrants harga 0.10 Monday ni...place your bet...kita kuat percaya sama lu Duit
2015-03-28 12:14
Duit, really a piece of hardwork there! haha, will definitely read and digest every single point. Thanks!
2015-03-28 13:27
Chunweilah, support 100%, kita buy put warrants and short futures Monday ni, ya?
2015-03-28 13:48
Duit1mdb friend,
Don't pijak me ma. I know u wanna kill me off. I never say I'm 100% Chun Chun.
I wrote the article becoz several frens queried me why I said market is bearish. I need answer them although I MIGHT BE 100% WRONG. AT LEAST THEY KNOW I GOT NO INTENTION TO CHEAT THEIR MONEY!
REPEAT! DONT TRUST ME BLINDLY. TAKE IT AS READING MATERIAL.
duit1mdb, if it bring trouble to you. I apologize for that.
Warmest regards,
Duit
2015-03-28 14:10
tak pasti la yongyou...
dia suruh semua orang ikut saya short future.....cakap apa 100% chun... bila market BULLISH mesti dia gembira tengok semua marah saya....
Saya tak dapat tanggung semua ini... BUKAN SAYA YANG CONTROL MARKET...macam mana nak percayakan saya????
rasa-rasa duit1mdb bak matikan saya.....
Posted by yongyou > Mar 28, 2015 02:08 PM | Report Abuse
duit1mdb adik beradik dengan duitKWSPkita?
2015-03-28 21:47
@yongyou
here for sharing and exchange info only. We can take as a reference and not decision.Nobody can guarantee the future movement.
Anywhere we thanks to Abang Duit for his effort spending much of time for the info.
Thanks Abang Duit .
:)
2015-03-28 22:04
hahahaha....
simon84,,,, you dgn saya dah sangat rapat....tak kan nak thanks lagi ke??? kita kawan sangat rapat la.... risau semua orang ingat PASTI CONFIRM KLCI down.......
2015-03-28 22:08
Sifu Duit has spoken, besok kita short futures and buy put warrants. Memang untung 100% dari tips Sifu Duit Kita senang jadi kaya
2015-03-29 11:40
Posted by duitKWSPkita > Mar 29, 2015 01:18 PM | Report Abuse X
Dear duit1mdb,
Nice to see your reply again. I think I have to handle your comment carefully and professionally.
Few things must be highlighted to you:
1) duit is humble? Not the key point here
2) nobody certify how accurate of duit's stock analysis
3) duit never propose to short futures and buy put warrants
4) duit never say KLCI index sure plunge
5) duit noted on your prediction of KLCI index 1670, your prediction well noted.
Please do not abuse the resources of the public forum.
I sincerely looking forward to seeing your cooperation.
Warmest regards,
Duit
2015-03-29 13:34
AyamTua....
May be not abang la... Tis is 31 yrs old....
I hope all readers here don't follow blindly of my analysis outcomes especially from a young(limited trading experience).
I don't know how to handle when ppl follow my analysis outcomes but I'm very glad to to discuss about my analysis findings. I am here to learn from u all but not to compete how great my prediction.
Thanks... Focus on my F1 game. Busy in setting now.
2015-03-29 14:26
broduit...when d tsunami waves come...nothing can stand in its way.I still affirmative tat it will b below 1700.Am expecting it to hit d bottom in early Aug...
Cheers!!!!!!!!!!!!
Posted by duitKWSPkita > Mar 27, 2015 10:41 PM | Report Abuse
thanks skyhawk for reading.... YES, I read your blogspot for more references .....
I agreed with you on Oil and Gas's bottomest price that's why never mention of how many percent drop from OnG sector. Some are already in my watch list. But I will not tolerance with banking sector as per described in y article.
brother, one thing we must take into consideration is with the precaution steps by government the INDEX will never plunge down to below 1700 pts again.
cheers!!!!!!!!!!! This time we will run to the same end point.....
Posted by skyhawk > Mar 27, 2015 07:30 PM | Report Abuse
duit...tks for sharing...but do not agree with u on O&G sector simply bcos most oil counters hv hit d bottom n a NEW SET EW WAVES r in progress...in fact it is d best time to pick them up.As for d index linked stocks...wat goes up must also come down,as a matter of fact hv predicted d current corrections at my blog :):):)....silkyhawk.blogspot.com
2015-03-29 16:16
Skyhawk,
Thanks for ur remarks. How good or how bad the future we keep for ourselves ya... Lets make a harmony way to ask them think twice if wanna invest big in index linked counters. Dare not to propose how great impact the disaster since it can't serve any positive things for those who has big paper losses.
I hope you and my analysis go wrong and all continue to make big gain from market. In case, market drive against them. They always welcomed to refer our analysis to make a exit plan.
Up or down doesn't not bring extra money to me. I m working as safety car to inform u road is slippery right after heavy rain. If u have great tyre(gut) no harm to speed up to over take for better standing.
Just me kindergarten thoughts. Pls don't trust me guys. Check with your remisier. My remisier told me that KLCI will perform steadily flat throughout this year and will test new high before next February. Tak kan I email to her my analysis right? I have few yrs involvement in stock market only. Whatever I published was jz meant for discussion and improvement purpose.
Thanks skyhawk, we diam diam better no point to give over pessis guidelines ma. Hope you agree my points
2015-03-29 18:43
Duit I know your felling .. Cause I experienced b4 . that's why recntly I less give any direction or comment . when it goes right is OK but when against our analysis some will blame us. We are not a god and may not always right. . no matter how many times we predict correctly ppl won't remember but when wrong ppl will criticism.
2015-03-29 19:08
duit,
I dont trade d index linked stocks.My analysis was done for d benefit of friends n for ppls who like to hv a second opinion(using d waves).Am not worry about index up/down bcos I only trade bullish stocks ...:D:D:D
2015-03-29 19:16
Simon84,
Thanks for ur valuable time to reply to me. Really appreciate it.
I can understand why duit1mdb wanna kill me off. Never think of challenge anything. Many requested me to share why I speculate put warrants. I am responsible to share with them my rationales. I know I gonna be wrong and will get blames. But I m comfortable to do things sincerely.
I hope ppl don't rush in to short futures or put warrants as Malaysia market is relatively small until can be controlled by several corporation.
Thanks simon84 and all friends. I got nothing good but u guys still willing to entertain me.
2015-03-29 19:18
Skyhawk,
No matter up or down we still have lots of choices rite? Like ur style. Really a smart money builder.
Cheers ya. We continue to Fight! Fight! Fight!
2015-03-29 19:19
Word from Sifu Duit :-
As a market opportunist I will take proactive step to prepare for the immediate downturn start from next week.
2015-03-30 11:20
Sekarang ini masa kita buy put warrants and short futures. Ini Sifu Duit ada bagi warning klci menjunam stat this week
2015-03-30 11:21
Selamat pagi dan selamat sejahtera Tuan duit1mdb,
Apa dah terjadi dengan awak? Kenapa sentiasa lupa baca komen ku di atas je?
Seperti biasa duit ingin menguruskan perkara Tuan dengan berwaspada dan lebih teliti kerana dari segi penglibatan atas 11 komen menunjukkan "niat" yang jelas sekali. TERIMA KASIH ATAS KESUDIAN TUAN BUKA SATU AKAUN BARU UNTUK KOMEN DALAM BLOG DUIT.
Dua perkara perlu dijelaskan di sini!
1) tAK PERLU lah nak ingatkan orang ramai sini duit akan gagal dalam analisa tersebut. Biar la rakan-rakan menentukan pilihan mereka untuk "LONG" atau "SHORT" futures. Cuma ingatan satu saja, kalau awak nak beli PUT WARRANTS sekarang maka awak akan terdedah kepada kerugian besar!!!!!!!! AKu tak pasti la, mungkin sesiapa yang pakai lutut(knee) untuk berfikir akan IKUT DUIT BELI PUT WARRANTS PADA MASA KINI.
2) Usahlah nak tumbangkan Duit sedangkan semua orang dah tau Duit seorang pelabur yang masih cetek pengetahuan dalam dunia pelaburan. Selain itu, memang tak perlu sia siakan usaha Tuan bagi menyindir/mengejek Duit bila masa KLCI naik mendadak.
Tuan duit1mdb, anda amat dialu-alukan untuk bergiat aktif di sini tapi seperti mana yang di sifatkan di atas usahlah sia-sia keusahaan anda dalam menumbangkan DUIT. Duit selaku orang baru tak pernah bimbang akan kegagalan, dan tak pernah fikir MENGAKU KISILAPAN adalah perkara yang memalukan. Dalam proses pembelajaran, berani untuk bertanggung KESILAPAN and sentiasa waras dengan PUNCA KESILAPAN akan mempercepat lagi process pembelajaran.
AKhir sekali, semoga anda Berjaya di semua lapangan tak kira kaunter saham, long futures atau short futures.
Sekian terima kasih,
duit
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Blog: [duitKWSPkita] KLCI Index: The view of market opportunist?
Mar 30, 2015 11:21 AM | Report Abuse
Sekarang ini masa kita buy put warrants and short futures. Ini Sifu Duit ada bagi warning klci menjunam stat this week
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Blog: [duitKWSPkita] KLCI Index: The view of market opportunist?
Mar 30, 2015 11:20 AM | Report Abuse
Word from Sifu Duit :-
As a market opportunist I will take proactive step to prepare for the immediate downturn start from next week.
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Blog: [duitKWSPkita] put warrants FBMKLCI - HB/HG/HJ/HK [trade, hedge & be ahead of markets]
Mar 30, 2015 11:16 AM | Report Abuse
Jangan panic. Buy put warrants and short futures. Sifu Duit sudah buat research very cun. Trust 100% untung. Klci jatuh menjunam, sekarang naik tipu saja
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Blog: [duitKWSPkita] put warrants FBMKLCI - HB/HG/HJ/HK [trade, hedge & be ahead of markets]
Mar 29, 2015 11:41 AM | Report Abuse
Sifu Duit sangat humble tapi tips cun. Kita serang short futures and buy put warrants. Gerenti untung 100%. KLCI pasti menjunam mulai besok. Macam cakap Sifu Duit, klci menjunam sampai 1670. Kaya kita nanti
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Blog: [duitKWSPkita] KLCI Index: The view of market opportunist?
Mar 29, 2015 11:40 AM | Report Abuse
Sifu Duit has spoken, besok kita short futures and buy put warrants. Memang untung 100% dari tips Sifu Duit Kita senang jadi kaya
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remember Bonesai? now comes the Eyecon8888
Mar 28, 2015 02:40 PM | Report Abuse
Sifu Duit, wah so humble. Trust 100%. You memanng cun bagi tip 100% untung. Terima kasih...Monday mesti short futures and buy put warrants HK 0.10
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remember Bonesai? now comes the Eyecon8888
Mar 28, 2015 02:04 PM | Report Abuse
You apa tau Calvin, ini Duit cun kao kao, gerenti 100% untung start Monday. Short futures and buy put warrants. Nanti menyesal bila index jatuh menjunam start Monday. Trust Duit, untung 100%
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remember Bonesai? now comes the Eyecon8888
Mar 28, 2015 01:51 PM | Report Abuse
Kita tau Duit sifu very cun, sudah bagi tips cun Monday ramai-ramai short futures and buy put warrants. Kita support 100% sama Duit
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Blog: [duitKWSPkita] KLCI Index: The view of market opportunist?
Mar 28, 2015 01:48 PM | Report Abuse
Chunweilah, support 100%, kita buy put warrants and short futures Monday ni, ya?
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Blog: [duitKWSPkita] put warrants FBMKLCI - HB/HG/HJ/HK [trade, hedge & be ahead of markets]
Mar 28, 2015 12:19 PM | Report Abuse
Abang Duit kita percaya 100% cun gila. Monday kita 100% support ini macam kita buy put warrants...jangan jual just buy sampai guna margin. Ini tips banyak cun punya 100% gurenti tak salah, kita not forget Duit sifu ini macam
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Blog: [duitKWSPkita] KLCI Index: The view of market opportunist?
Mar 28, 2015 12:14 PM | Report Abuse
Abang Duit tips kao kao, kita short futures, buy put warrants harga 0.10 Monday ni...place your bet...kita kuat percaya sama duit
2015-03-30 12:42
Today Asia market shoot higher....Europe just open and shooting high too. US futures,all move higher. Tmr KLCI??????
Market is very funny....just you think that it is going to drop, it moves higher.
Anyway, those who predict the market will be 33.333% right...because markets move high,low or side-way. There's no other way about it.
2015-03-30 16:46
thanks for ur reply Mr imoogi99,
Never deny that My analysis was the most lousy one.
No point for me to deny right? I saw it KLCI shoot higher, Europe just open and shooting high too.
I think your(should say everyone's) right tomoro KLCI will gap up and challenge 1830 and above.
Yup, the only lousy people (duit) think market will drop.
Thanks for ur reply. Think market may change to BULLISH...
Posted by imoogi99 > Mar 30, 2015 04:46 PM | Report Abuse
Today Asia market shoot higher....Europe just open and shooting high too. US futures,all move higher. Tmr KLCI??????
Market is very funny....just you think that it is going to drop, it moves higher.
Anyway, those who predict the market will be 33.333% right...because markets move high,low or side-way. There's no other way about it
2015-03-30 16:52
Duit...jangan salah sangka. Everyone have the right to have their own opinion. In fact many people expect the market to drop too. But then news around the world, especially from China, makes the market move another way. That's why I said market is funny. Nevertheless, we cannot take things for granted. Always have a parachute on.
2015-03-30 16:56
imoogi99,,
no la....tak salah sangka... I like to response quick... I BET many will blame me if tis week market tak drop...
I siap siap minta maaf dulu lo... Never think of escape from any mistake. Not my style... I will never blame other and at the same time will not running from admit my mistake. After all, lousy analysis still a lousy analysis rite?
No worries la..... as long as all make big money from the rally.... I m happy with my wrong analysis ma... In fact this analysis jz highlight to ppl think twice if wanna trade big should they try to do risk management...
2015-03-30 17:01
imoogi99,
Shanghai and HangSeng shake hand on new project so STOCK market UP.
Singapore manyak VIP come n "visit" last week so nt easy to down. This week no one guarantee
Thailand little rebounce after whole week down..
Europe geopolitical and Greek issue can turn 721 degree within 5 hours.
US market happy to say "bubble burst" terms coming back again
Malaysia- uhmmmm..... Very happy to learn new thing "if" break through 1826.
2015-03-30 17:25
walau eh........
me pening .....mau berapa orang akuan baru keluar baru boleh habis..
terus tell me nak CABAR apa.... saya nanti free time boleh satu kali handle ma.. now very very busy wanna clean floor and clean toiler bowl...
2015-03-30 17:36
Tuan duit1mdb,
Saya telah paparkan satu blog baru bertajuk :KLCI the best VIEW to please YOU!
Datang la ramai-ramai untuk mengunjungi tapak saya di
http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/duitkwspkitaMARKETopportunist/73677.jsp
Terima kasih.
2015-03-30 21:05
To my blog readers
I AM VERY SORRY!
Despite my dead busy schedules in my workplace I would like to sign in to make a quick statement to my beloved readers.
I am neither a good market analyst nor a seer but it never give me any excuse to ADMIT MY MISTAKE and EXPRESS MY APOLOGY to you all.
I understand how upset you must have been when you discovered that my comment/analysis output/prediction which dated on Fri, 27 Mar 2015, 04:30PM made you lose money in short futures/put warrants. Please accept my sincere apologies for that error.
The KLCI index has surpassed the multi stages of resistance points which included 1816, 1826, 1830 and 1850 these two weeks to mark its new uptrend signal for short term investment. My read about the downtrend from 1815 was absolutely a GREAT MISTAKE that I must admit at this moment.
Beside that, I would like to reveal my paper loss for my two(2) put warrants which I am still holding to present. My paper loss for FBMKLCI-HG & FBMKLCI-HC are 38.4%(from RM0.135) and 31.8%(from RM0.425) respectively. This is to respond to the mostly asked question to my personal email while admitting my fault.
Again, I apologize to anyone who inadvertently traded in the put warrants.
I shall make a come back after I clear all stuffs on my desk.
Sincerely regret making this mistake,
duitkwspkita
2015-04-09 13:40
Congraddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddd
BET the are many put warrants GREAT WINNERSSSSsssssssssssssss here.
2015-05-29 12:41
optimusprime
predicting oil to sky rocket to 80 within a few months.
predicting ringgit to strengthen back to 3.50
predicting all export based stock to collapse in price.
predicting ci to test 1880 again this year
but dont trust me, i may be wrong.
2015-03-27 20:02