In stock market we need investors in trading market and sometime we require traders in investing market. Psychologically speaking the market will not runaway from the common psychology terms like optimism, thrill, anxiety, panic, capitulation,anger, disbelief, complacency, belief etc. Trader and investor are good partner and they always substitute each other to make sure the market roll.
Most of the new investors step in market during optimism stage, at this stage trader and investor also have concurent view that market in recharged uptrend. AFter that you will realize trader has stronger belief that "I was correct before so I would invest big this round". Next step another thrilled trader jump out "See, I sell everything to buy this counter because their I know their CEO and bla bla". Suddenly when all heading to the peak and just a little step before the peak then euphoric will jump out "Sell everything and market going to plunge very n, BOH CHOW C-c-c-c-c-c-". There the market start to retract from the peak (where you see 7 years economic cycles's peak). Of course unlimited source and uncertified news will flow in to the market proposing up and downtrend as it form the complacency. Either the expert will leave the market and retire in Hawaii or those got heavily burnt off would leave the market forever. Due to the low volume trade might as well hedge fund press down the market and wait for it rebalance. Anxiety take place and Investor jump out "See, ask you dont contra but to learn how to invest in value stocks". Usually, small retailers or new traders(I wont say new investor because investor mean a person invest his/her stock for certain period and take into account of the market change but invest in the company fundamental growth). Market plunge and undergo major correction this moment weak heartbeat trader panic, deny defeat, panicking again and "Dont know what to do anymore".
Based on psyhcology teory the longer the capitulation period the firmer the downturn signal and the firmer the rebound after that. Mixed feeling here by two different view trader group. One will curse governmnet of the bailout programe and to warn the off balance effect when market fail to reflect actual economic behaviour. On the other hand another one also curse the government who came late to intervene & support the market which had resulted them in heavily loss. At this critical depresion moment Investor come in again "The worst is over. In current condition it's the best time to buy share not only can earn from currency appreciation but also earn up from Major commodities & share price increase". ...................................................as I said before trader start to regain their confidence then walk in again and keep the market roll.
Trader and investor are good actors in stock market. Both of them can be on BUY side or SELL side and the most crucial point is whether you choose to be early bird, intermediate hunter or late worm in the profiting process.
What is going on for our stock market esp. KLCI?
Do you spot anything from the raw chart?
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How about this?
Because of trader and investor's substitution and money flow plus economic natural laws the trend will repeat for itself. You may try to workout both A1 vs A2 and C1 vs C2.
A1 vs A2 present to us about the Bollinger band with similar market "sentiment" should consolidate for a while
C1 vs C2 present to us about the trend will be replicated until the market reaches its equilibrium stage. C1 and C2 prohibit the same action-reaction movement but C2 show slight lower rate in behaviour.
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Malaysia is a wonderful country I must tell you. We are protected by external factors in fact therefore, we can easily overcome our financial disaster without kow-tao to IMF or latest FBI (hahah.....kidding).
Malaysian demand for Strong Ringgit currency
: US FED will kickoff bunches of cooling measures to devalue USD; to boost up corporate earning. Malaysia enjoy Ringgit rebound benefit
Malaysian demand for oil export as it contributes about 30% of our GDP
: So far so good. Even though gov's revenue was trimmed badly but I believe the benchmark of light crude price at USD45 is an adequate cushion for Malaysia's economy
Malaysian demand for Crude Palm Oil price as it contributes about 6% of our GDP
: El Nino could be a strong catalyst for CPO price in near term. Palm oil industry seize the 6% weightage out of 7.1%(2014 GDP) from total agriculture contribution. CPO price rose enable the margin improvement in entire supply chain like logistic, banking, plantation, manufacturing .
Be confident in our country, here are the push factors for our economy.
1) Malaysia is the most attractive country to invest under Emerging category due to the attractiveness of YTD -19% decrease in International Reserves. How? High Government & Corp Bond Yield and indirectly add value to stock market
2) Valuecap is already "proven" - a successful market stimulation method to restore foreign investor confidence. Businessman dont bother about your personal family affair but more focus on commercial value. They will come should there is profiting value to them.
3) Strong booster of RM 50 billion by state fund to handle Foreign Fund disposal- It is another strong booster to warn pre-exit FF. Dont miss out the opportunity. We can do better without you. So FF will stay back.
4) Till todate the Foreign Fund participation is around 22% in our equity market as it is still far from the previos historical peak at 29%. Big room for FF to invest until they conclude this emerging market is concentrated.
5) Myanmar's Yangon Stock Exchange will be commenced in December 2015. The spotlight will shoot at Southeast Asian Emerging markets again. Traditional top pick are Malaysia, Indonesia, Philippines and Thailand.
6) TPP was anticipated to stimulate local businesses from rubber & glove, palm oil, electronic etc. No doubt it creates another argument on competitiveness disadvantege of our consumerism sector and US big boy's agenda.
Conclusion: With all the pull and push factors my read for market is the reasonable and measureable index range can be quantified in between 1660-1760. For time being the immediate support of 1680 and strong support of 1642 are strongly to be relied on. You may start to invest in undervalued & good prospects counters while trading in themed play sector from time to time. We are around the end of economic slow down and recession will take place for certain short period before the STRONG RECOVERY in July 2016.
Created by duitKWSPkita | Aug 15, 2015
WHOA!
Another nice chart from Expert Duit!
All the converging signs point to a flood of liquidity buying into Undervalue Rm And Malaysian assets.
As water flows to the lowest level foreign funds will continue to flow where the great value is.
Always the same pattern. Bad news cause prices to crash. Then stealth funds swop in. When all are bullish they sell.
India was bad mouthed. Then indian equities slumped. So foreign funds bought India. So was China. Then Japan and others. Thailand, Philippines and Indonesia also had their runs. The only one left out was Malaysia.
Calvin Tan Research calls for a strong buy on
1) The Ringgit. The most undervalue South east Asian currency now.
2) Klse stocks. In Us dollar term klse is only around 1,200 points.
3) All lands, landed houses, shops, factories in Iskandar. The best real estate with the greatest potential on planet earth. See www.onemotoring.sg
2015-10-17 12:32
Why Iskandar?
Answer:
Johoreans working in Singapore gets 3 times more from Sing dollar conversion to ringgit. Then see the long queue of cars flowing across the causeway.
Former Singapore Pm Goh Chok Tong said Singaporeans are like birds. They say, " Cheap, cheap, chirp, cheap!"
See the Rush to Johor www.onemotoring.sg
That is a Whopping Rm50 Billions windfall for Iskandar.
No other states have this winning edge.
2015-10-17 12:39
Yes Duit,
Please come to Johor on any week day and call me.
Today I am stuck in Singapore as the traffic jam can last up to 3 hours.
2015-10-17 12:42
Coldrisks,
Thanks, not so rich as kyy or my Johore Sifu the Machine Gun.
As to sales tactic, yes I hope to give Value for all. Prosper thy neighbour and thou shalt prosper. Or he who watereth others will also water himself.
2015-10-17 13:06
Calvin boss.. Paiseh lo until now still hav not arrange to meet up with you... Mostly will drop by .... Shall arrange la....
Till then I maintain our seafood dinner date
2015-10-17 13:11
U all very good one.... Salute...
Me hav bearish view for the over supply at few vibrant areas at Malaysia market...... Iskandar no meat for me to eat near term.. All Calvin boss sapu liao
2015-10-17 13:22
Coldrisks..
Shit Liao... Later ppl say you n me same same person.... To attract attention.... Hahahaha.....
Use knee think also got answer lo...
2015-10-17 13:37
Coldrisks Your Singaporean uncles bought many houses in JB, they have foreseen the uptrend long ago... long ago S$ not yet stong no benefit, in fact, bought long ago will lose in exchange rate is it?? Thank u
2015-10-17 13:39
BenBlurBlur...
How are u? Have a nice weekend ya... Come on we discuss something.. Property also can stock also can...
2015-10-17 13:41
I blur blur still learning not qualify to discuss with sifu yet is it? Thank u
2015-10-17 13:44
BenBlurBlur...
No sifu here.the most also joker n duit clown....me learner only
2015-10-17 13:45
BenBlurBlur... So many thank you ya?
In this forum only one people always use thank you... U are second one
2015-10-17 13:53
Not me la You have that I dont know what name that cannot remember anything sickness you very old ready is it?? Thank u
2015-10-17 14:00
Hahahh..
Coldrisks.. I believe BenBlutBlur can be a very good talker.. Lets have fun chat... Don't chase him away la.. All make fren here.. Outside was too tension ad
2015-10-17 14:04
I blur blur still learner only ask questions never kacau is it? Thank u
2015-10-17 14:08
Paperplane2...
Aru reviewed ur view of bearish should US postpone their interest.... U also change view.. I cannot take thing for granted
2015-10-17 14:12
I blur blur still learner only ask questions u ask wrong person is it? Thank u
2015-10-17 14:14
Hahahah
Really smart blur blur... Ok la.. Then we discuss fishing or gardening. Do you like fishing?
2015-10-17 14:17
Coldrisks..
Omega 3 and 6 got Miracle effect to heart protection. Instead of tocopherol family should go for tocotrienol.....
2015-10-17 14:20
Just google
A multivamin a day keeps the doctor away and brushing your teeth after breakfast keeps the dentist at bay by Calvin Tan
2015-10-17 14:22
Coldrisks..
It is our house ... NT my private house... Take care my guest ya... I want to go eat laksa now
2015-10-17 14:25
Lol bro duit new post...
But how come from klci view -> iskandar -> omega 3?
Btw... how are you bro cold risk?
2015-10-17 15:44
Good article,keep it up.waiting your email this monday.want to sell wintoni on Monday and buy another counter.
2015-10-17 20:21
thank you for the wonderful insight Cikgu Duit..you are one of the best (in seriousness and also your sense of humor)
2015-10-17 21:03
JN88
Thanks...haha
Actually I found a way to make sure ringgit value, once RM devalue , you can go oversea asking people change RM v u ....then next second u will get to know the answer.hahahaha
2015-10-17 11:23