Dear Readers,
I would like to share with you a simple way to predict intra day market movement. This method is relatively simple and fully sponsored by Market Makers. I have been using this method for quite some times and find it very convincing in terms of accuracy and consistently deliver handsome gain to me.
This write up will cover:
[̲̅i̲̅][̲̅n̲̅][̲̅t̲̅][̲̅r̲̅][̲̅o̲̅][̲̅d̲̅][̲̅u̲̅][̲̅c̲̅][̲̅t̲̅][̲̅i̲̅][̲̅o̲̅][̲̅n̲̅]
(Remarks: Below is just the example for discussion purpose, M&M from Call/put can be changed over the period)
When the market becomes volatile (index change > 0.55%) it is getting tougher for us to trade. Generally, there are only three types of trend in market which are UPTREND, DOWNTREND and SIDEWAY. Today, ASEAN markets (Indonesia, Singapore and Malaysia) have breached the critical psyhcological level so market experts opined there will be Bearish Extended Mode over the next few months. I aware small retailers shifting their focus to quicker gain like FBMKLCI - Call/Put warrants while reducing their participation in stocks. We come across of these famous discussion "Folk, any idea of tomorrow market", "Hey, buy HK", "Hey, faster switch to C2", "Join me in HM sure you will win 200% for your X'mas gifts" etc. Well, it is fun to read those comments because I like to promote FUN WAY TRADING slogan in the investment field. After this article you will be more confident to "feel" the market like an expert. Please share with others should you find this method is effective and easy to understand.
[̲̅w̲̅][̲̅h̲̅][̲̅o̲̅] [̲̅a̲̅][̲̅n̲̅][̲̅d̲̅] [̲̅w̲̅][̲̅h̲̅][̲̅y̲̅] [̲̅m̲̅][̲̅a̲̅][̲̅r̲̅][̲̅k̲̅][̲̅e̲̅][̲̅t̲̅] [̲̅m̲̅][̲̅a̲̅][̲̅k̲̅][̲̅e̲̅][̲̅r̲̅]
In short market makers are a group of dealer in securities or other assets who undertakes to buy or sell at specified prices at all times. Market makers are engaged by particular security in oreder to facilitate trading in that security and they compete for customer order flow by displaying buy and sell quotations for a guranteed number of shares. Once an order is received, the market maker immediately sells from its own inventory or seeks an offsetting order. This process takes place in mere seconds.
Figure 2: M&M bye bye and it becomes GHOST TOWN
Why can we rely on M&M? It is because :
Figure 1 and Figure 2 show the presence of M&M and their participation righ ton BEFORE/AFTER market close. If you need all the market information in your day trade analysis perhaps M&M be able to complement you in this method. Bear in mind that, they are the ultimate WINNERs in this game in the end of the day.
[̲̅f̲̅][̲̅r̲̅][̲̅e̲̅][̲̅e̲̅] [̲̅t̲̅][̲̅i̲̅][̲̅p̲̅][̲̅s̲̅] [̲̅o̲̅][̲̅f̲̅] 4 [̲̅s̲̅][̲̅i̲̅][̲̅m̲̅][̲̅p̲̅][̲̅l̲̅][̲̅e̲̅] [̲̅s̲̅][̲̅t̲̅][̲̅e̲̅][̲̅p̲̅][̲̅s̲̅]
(Remarks: All identified M&M must be changed in monthly basic to adapt the latest market trend)
I am more than happy to share with you this fun yet robust method to predict intrad day market movement. It is FREE because it's sponsored by Market Makers. Do not thank me but thank M&M. 4 simple steps that involved are identification, sorting, analysis and prediction while last one is to excute your winning trade.
1[̲̅s̲̅][̲̅t̲̅] [̲̅s̲̅][̲̅t̲̅][̲̅e̲̅][̲̅p̲̅] : [̲̅i̲̅][̲̅d̲̅][̲̅e̲̅][̲̅n̲̅][̲̅t̲̅][̲̅i̲̅][̲̅f̲̅][̲̅i̲̅][̲̅c̲̅][̲̅a̲̅][̲̅t̲̅][̲̅i̲̅][̲̅o̲̅][̲̅n̲̅]
Different analyst has different perspective! I try to share based on my years of experience in M&M game play. You may follow the rules here:
2[̲̅n̲̅][̲̅d̲̅] [̲̅s̲̅][̲̅t̲̅][̲̅e̲̅][̲̅p̲̅]: [̲̅s̲̅][̲̅o̲̅][̲̅r̲̅][̲̅t̲̅][̲̅i̲̅][̲̅n̲̅][̲̅g̲̅]
(Remarks: This will be revised on monthly basic or when significant Macroeconomy change)
As at 15 August 2015, below is identified M&M for my intra day KLCI movement analysis
Figure 3: Sorting step and latest M&M key indicators
3[̲̅r̲̅][̲̅d̲̅] [̲̅s̲̅][̲̅t̲̅][̲̅e̲̅][̲̅p̲̅]: [̲̅a̲̅][̲̅n̲̅][̲̅a̲̅][̲̅l̲̅][̲̅s̲̅][̲̅y̲̅][̲̅s̲̅][̲̅i̲̅][̲̅s̲̅] [̲̅a̲̅][̲̅n̲̅][̲̅d̲̅] [̲̅p̲̅][̲̅r̲̅][̲̅e̲̅][̲̅d̲̅][̲̅i̲̅][̲̅c̲̅][̲̅t̲̅][̲̅i̲̅][̲̅o̲̅][̲̅n̲̅]
Figure 4: Computation and normalization for M&M counters
Under the computation step we are just focus on the difference between Previous Close and Opening queue by M&M (usually 2 minutes after market open at 9:02AM & 2:32PM). Must to ensure that all PUT and CALL in same sign either POSITIVE or NEGATIVE that we only can rely on the M&M input. Based on the 0.44 result the correlation is very hig, thus, it is a strong indicator that can be used to read today's market.
Three ranges of indicators here:
After the above mentioned calculation we need to examine the result whether is weak or strongly recommended to follow. The normalized total value may increae or decreae over the hours on overall stock news development. For example like last Monday(3 Aug 2015) the Normalized figure had increased from 0.070 (9:01AM) to 0.120(9:32AM) mean we could highly follow the indicator after then. Some detailed examples for your understanding
Exp 1: Last Friday when KLCI opened POSITIVE but PUT (Green) and CALL (RED) without examine the normalized value it was a STRONG Indicator that M&M traded ahead the market, hence, market plunged after 1 hour.
Exp: 2: On Thursday when KLCI traded RED while PUT(Green) and CALL (RED). The initial normalized value was above 0.080 but suddenly decrease to 0.020 before it turnaround to become KLCI (GREEN); CALL (GREEN); PUT(RED). Based on the initial 0.080 it was a strong indicator so when it turned down ONE CAN STARTS TRADE CALL WARRANTS.
Exp 3: If you see whole day the normalized value also below 0.06 then the ongoing trend can be ding dong ding dong which is not advised to trade FBMKLCI-Call/put for quicker gain
(Remark: Key points here are we need to examine whether weak, strong or very strong indicator at first then only can decide to use its movement to predict KLCI's movement.)
4[̲̅t̲̅][̲̅h̲̅] [̲̅s̲̅][̲̅t̲̅][̲̅e̲̅][̲̅p̲̅]: [̲̅e̲̅][̲̅x̲̅][̲̅e̲̅][̲̅c̲̅][̲̅u̲̅][̲̅t̲̅][̲̅e̲̅] [̲̅t̲̅][̲̅r̲̅][̲̅a̲̅][̲̅d̲̅][̲̅e̲̅]
Once you finish the above mentioned 3 steps then you can place order for your put/call or stocks. If you do not believe in this method then you may monitor and follow it with paper trade. Bear in mind that, the variable like identified M&M, normalized range target for weak, strong & very strong indication, monthly calibration method will affect your correspondence result in trading, hence, yield various results to you. Currently, I have seven(7) warrants in the watch list but I may increase to 10 or decrease to 4 and change the normalized range target for indication ONCE MARKET CHANGE.
Conclusion: This is a simple and fun way to read the market with the assistance of market makers. I have been using it since last year and my read on the intra day movement still remain in high performance. Before that, HC, HK, CD, CH and others were my good M&M ingredients.
Lastly, I hope you enjoy your reading.
Happy trading.
Thank you for your super fast reply leh Mr Duit.
Actually dunno this put, call warrant exist until come this forum. All the while is trade stock conventional(i.e. old) way.
Abt the volume, sorta understand cos normal stock also sometimes large volumes above 1,000 lots. Which normally us retail investors cant afford
2015-08-16 23:03
yongyou:::: Belum buat lagi... always nt feeling well.... and then very busy and rushing at Econsave
eagle100: I suggest you not to touch first.... Unless you can feel the market..... A lot of fundamental we need to master then only can play this highly liquid stocks. Remember that, learn stock investment to improve our life but not to aim for money making..... One day you will agree on my statement,
Uhmmm.. how to say.... retailers also can buy up to 5000 per order.... my account can do that also....
2015-08-16 23:06
wowowo, ah Duit, good write-up lah.... keep it up...
Hope you are happy always ...... and do count many pieces of Purple notes daily lor.....
Happy trading too , good night and sweet dream...
2015-08-16 23:12
abang yong... thanks for ur message....
Mine nt proven and very street fighter one... I still admire ur skills....
Much to learn from u la abang yong.......
rest early and rest wellllllllllllllllll.................. I concern ur health always...
2015-08-16 23:15
ah duit,
Thanks , my buddy... good night and sweet dream, You too must sleep early for tomorrow fighting mah......
bye , sweet dream
2015-08-16 23:17
hi, duit, thanks for the detail explanation, a very comprehensive one! just want to confirm something, Firstly, the normalized value refer to the total of the seven put/call,is it? and not referring to just one put/call right? So, the general idea is to measure whether the MM has clear view on how the direction of KLCI right?
Secondly, when you say whether MM control almost 100% or lesser, I a bit confused on this control as you also mentioned that the retailers buy/sell small pieces to them in your reply to yapie? What I understand 100% means they own most of the call/put, haha, and they own most, then who they sell to at the end? Thirdly, normally, the MM will close position for their client at day end? ie: they trade intraday only for their client normally? Fourthly, I saw last friday around 4.30pm, got ppl selling their put (may be to close their position?) and then after that got ppl to buy back and push the price up a bit? Do you know whats their intention on that? Lastly, do you keep track of USD/MYR and Oil Price every night before next day trading before you bet on the KLCI direction? A bit too much questions, haha, but really thanks for your reply on the previous questions, was very curious on how these MM works...Cheers, bro!
2015-08-16 23:19
below is referred...
Posted by nicholas1184 > Aug 16, 2015 11:19 PM | Report Abuse
hi, duit, thanks for the detail explanation, a very comprehensive one! just want to confirm something, Firstly, the normalized value refer to the total of the seven put/call,is it? and not referring to just one put/call right? So, the general idea is to measure whether the MM has clear view on how the direction of KLCI right?
@@@ Absolutely correct... to judge their clear direction... value based on total 7 but not single one..
Secondly, when you say whether MM control almost 100% or lesser, I a bit confused on this control as you also mentioned that the retailers buy/sell small pieces to them in your reply to yapie? What I understand 100% means they own most of the call/put, haha, and they own most, then who they sell to at the end?
@@@@ New product they control all... but after some times retailers come n stir the water.... For me, will play with 100% MM stock only... the rest jz waste my time...
Thirdly, normally, the MM will close position for their client at day end? ie: they trade intraday only for their client normally?
@@@@ They will only queue for sell but they never BUY.......
They sell in extremely CHEAP or EXPENSIVE.... both way also untung.. I wrote a long story about how MM Make money in cc thread... I think hav deleted.....
Fourthly, I saw last friday around 4.30pm, got ppl selling their put (may be to close their position?) and then after that got ppl to buy back and push the price up a bit?
@@@@ ALl by non MM traders..... MM do not need to do that...
Do you know whats their intention on that? Lastly, do you keep track of USD/MYR and Oil Price every night before next day trading before you bet on the KLCI direction? A bit too much questions, haha, but really thanks for your reply on the previous questions, was very curious on how these MM works...Cheers, bro!
@@@@ For me.. I cover every corners of development on finance and economic........I never restrict myself to any specific discipline.... Want to be a confident trader/investor must follow up closely all the development..... I have one long guideline in Cc house also but cant recall when was it... May be good for u as reference....
2015-08-16 23:40
Mr duit, im a bit confuse, so we (only) can put in 7 specific weightage counters, but does it matter if one side (put) is more than the call? or we must follow your order which is 3put, 4call?
And secondly, would it be unfair if certain warrants are like around 90c and they edy shoot up to 97c, wouldn't that particular counter itself already affected the normalized value >0.07 (STRONG indicator) let alone comparing it to the other 6 warrants.
TQVM!
2015-08-17 00:14
Mr duit, im a bit confuse, so we (only) can put in 7 specific weightage counters, but does it matter if one side (put) is more than the call? or we must follow your order which is 3put, 4call?
@@@@ If you read carefully, I have commented that 7 counters jz my preference. You may do any to suit for your style, can be all PUT or CALL only or total mixed of 10 or only 4.... It is up to you... Last 2 months I used 2 only and then 6 then 8 and now 7..... I review it every month.
And secondly, would it be unfair if certain warrants are like around 90c and they edy shoot up to 97c, wouldn't that particular counter itself already affected the normalized value >0.07 (STRONG indicator) let alone comparing it to the other 6 warrants.
@@@@@ Trust me, if you are really understand the concept and pick the appropriate group of counters. You wont see only one counter dominate the others.......... for my 7 counters, if one ad up 0.07 then the rest at least will have change of +/- 0.060........... You will never see it happen as you said... Unless you wrongly pick the incorrect criteria..
TQVM!
2015-08-17 00:25
thanks for the reply, so if i only select 5 counters, i need change the normalized value also right? so basically <0.05 (weak indicator), 0.055>0.11 (strong), >0.11 (verystrong)
2015-08-17 00:46
Something like that... Perhaps u need to review from time to time....
Ur idea is correct..
Remarks: MM also read our discussion over the weekend. They can change the game play if they want...
2015-08-17 00:51
Duit .
Juz came across this article. Thanksssss for yr interesting n comprehensive analysis. Million likes n salute n hail duit !! Thats why tsy say "cant find an IDENTICAL"
Hv yet to digest !!!
2015-08-17 01:41
But Duit hor your green blazer in picture hor always make me say GO BUY THAT Stock hor. I orange mah always cautious one. I think hor u sound more like RM12,000 than 1,200 hor.
2015-08-17 09:08
Good morning.... Sunkist118....... HHHahahaha.. Ur cute..
Nowdays household RM12,000 really cant support a small family....
From worldwide MBA study last 3 years a minimum household income from KL already at RM12,580 ..... today probably rise to RM15,000 or above.... Itu pun dah sangat jimat cermat and no vacation plan .... and with two small kids and never include for International school....
Susah hidup jor..
2015-08-17 09:11
wah, haha! DUIT!
SEE?
KLCI------------100 POINTS DOWN! 1600 SHAKY!
1500 to be first bottom if nothing else! if FED hike, below 1500 to 1200 range I think. But situation now seems no more hike loh
2015-08-17 09:18
Hi Duit, many thanks for the sharing, really appreciate, although it's still need time to practice and see the trend... the HM (high weightage), just to confirm, are they call/put warrants with less retailers but high holdings by M&M?
2015-08-17 11:11
Judgement Day coming!!!
GREAT DEPRESSION WILL FORM ITSELF! IF FED HIKE!
WHY? they will drain liquidity!
2015-08-17 12:27
Revenge time!!!!!!!!!!!
FBMKLCI-CO : RM0.045 clear it and sell 2 bids
FBMKLCI-CT : RM0.175 clear it and sell 4 bids
FBMKLCI-C7 : RM0.180 cleat it and sell 6 bids
Do or die! Don't care, Fight! Fight! Fight!
For weekly analysis, daily Chaikin Money Flow already breached the lowest of -0.29 under 2 X 52 weeks. Revenge period (1-3 days)
For weekly CMF it is still not clear to propose a short term rebound.
Remarks: Tomorrow(Tuesday) is the decisive day for global forced selling on Wednesday. Should it fail to regain today's support at 1568.5 before closing then the tendency of correction will remain high.
Monitor closely all the indicators to manage your risk.
Happy REVENGE!
2015-08-17 12:36
Coldrisks...
I did mention last nite to our fren here. MM will not BUY share from you but they will only queue in extreme LOW or HIGH to earn the spread.
Here we discuss about spread and margin. Usually if they are very firm about the market outlook they will queue in wide spread, hence, they will have handsome margin and vice versa.
"""Most mm shares are out of value, why you choose them?
hn and ho don't seems to have mm around and they are more to the value, don't you think it is safer?""
If I can understand ur ques correctly, you are discussing why I choose them for trade. Becoz I am a high risk taker and I have high risk appetite. I do not trade with ZERO MM counter simply becoz I am not comfortable with the No-trend counter.
If you discuss this ques on my criteria of indication use, the answer is STRONG INDICATOR need STRONG MM's signals.
Hope it helps....
2015-08-17 12:55
Coldrisks...
I think we might have different definition of buy n sell.. Beside that, I am comment on Malaysia put/call...
If they queu BUY and fortunately you sell to them. In my system it is about u buy from them .... MM never buy means they never buy your queued sell lots.
Trust me.... They have no time to ask other desktop to buy from their own queu considering that the system doesn't allow for queue sell and buy under same account.
May be I should explain in more details
2015-08-17 13:09
Kitty28..
Thanks that u follow my sharing very much.
I have to tell you one reality.. Even though I am so great in the writing... But result?
Am I making million within this period? NO!
Am I making hundred K within this period? NO!
Am I making thousands or hundreds? NO!
Am I losing money? YES!
so better to treat it as discussion content... Hahaha
2015-08-17 13:38
Hahahah....
Not I dun wan to ask u... But cant find u all the time...vu always missing how Leh????
Need one help..later ask ur fren don't short bond or stock...
Will buy first batch of call warrants with RM350k test water first....
Need ur help... If I make gain then I promise u to donate out 60%.... Can deal?
2015-08-17 13:51
Coldrisks..
My mistake.. Really my mistake... Yea.. Agreed that when you queue sell suddenly they come n overwrite it with multiple bids upfront... So it is BUY indeed. In fact, they jz execute their queu so jz like vacuum cleaner... Clean every damn things...
Sorry.. I overlooked it... My mistake
Thanks for remind me
2015-08-17 14:23
Thanks for info Coldrisks.......
Kena very cautious especially I am not full time in front of screen...
2015-08-17 14:44
Guys,
CONGRATS! Don't be greedy. Work according to the plan. But not plan according to the work.
Posted by duitKWSPkita > Aug 17, 2015 12:36 PM | Report Abuse X
Revenge time!!!!!!!!!!!
FBMKLCI-CO : RM0.045 clear it and sell 2 bids
FBMKLCI-CT : RM0.175 clear it and sell 4 bids
FBMKLCI-C7 : RM0.180 cleat it and sell 6 bids
Do or die! Don't care, Fight! Fight! Fight!
For weekly analysis, daily Chaikin Money Flow already breached the lowest of -0.29 under 2 X 52 weeks. Revenge period (1-3 days)
For weekly CMF it is still not clear to propose a short term rebound.
Remarks: Tomorrow(Tuesday) is the decisive day for global forced selling on Wednesday. Should it fail to regain today's support at 1568.5 before closing then the tendency of correction will remain high.
Monitor closely all the indicators to manage your risk.
Happy REVENGE!
2015-08-17 14:58
Revenge time!!!!!!!!!!!
[Done at RM0.055 - RM4k]DISCOUNTED DUE TO TIKUS
FBMKLCI-CO : RM0.045 clear it and sell 2 bids
[Done at RM0.190 - RM17k]DISCOUNTED DUE TO TIKUS
FBMKLCI-CT : RM0.175 clear it and sell 4 bids
[Done at RM0.205 - RM23k]DISCOUNTED DUE TO TIKUS
FBMKLCI-C7 : RM0.180 cleat it and sell 6 bids
RM44k small gain(close position and re-analyze the market).... RM35k will be donated out....
Thanks to my loved wonderful Market Makers..... Appreciate it
duitKWSPkita Guys,
CONGRATS! Don't be greedy. Work according to the plan. But not plan according to the work.
Posted by duitKWSPkita > Aug 17, 2015 12:36 PM | Report Abuse X
Revenge time!!!!!!!!!!!
FBMKLCI-CO : RM0.045 clear it and sell 2 bids
FBMKLCI-CT : RM0.175 clear it and sell 4 bids
FBMKLCI-C7 : RM0.180 cleat it and sell 6 bids
Do or die! Don't care, Fight! Fight! Fight!
For weekly analysis, daily Chaikin Money Flow already breached the lowest of -0.29 under 2 X 52 weeks. Revenge period (1-3 days)
For weekly CMF it is still not clear to propose a short term rebound.
Remarks: Tomorrow(Tuesday) is the decisive day for global forced selling on Wednesday. Should it fail to regain today's support at 1568.5 before closing then the tendency of correction will remain high.
Monitor closely all the indicators to manage your risk.
Happy REVENGE!
17/08/2015 14:58
2015-08-18 11:54
why not...other than make ppls happy,u happy too...dun you think that it is one of the wonderful thing?
2015-08-18 12:01
hahahahah
true.....DUNKNOW boss.... Let me continue to be clown..... to amuse U all... U all happy I tumpang happy too....
2015-08-18 12:14
bro....i realised one thing....u like to be at 1007....why huh?u all write in chinese...use google translate,i oso dunknow what they are telling me...why arrr?mind to share ka?
2015-08-18 12:35
hahahaha
DUNKNOW bro....... try to enlighten people... try to assist ...they are nice persons like you... and I learn a lot from them....
2015-08-18 13:10
coldrisk…ya ka?no wonder I read read oso I cannot understand lor…need to learn form my daughter liao…form kindergarden….Market learn from duit,kindergarden's Market...
2015-08-18 13:29
hahaha,duit…u arr…u arrr….why u always so nice one huh?or u makan tongshui until ur mouth thnee thnee…yeah,a lot to learn from senior…halia makin tua makin pedas lor…
2015-08-18 13:30
DUNKNOW boss... U super kind person ma....
every time when I have problem if not you who come n entertain me?U la
2015-08-18 13:56
DUIT BOSS,
hahaha….dunknow wat to say liao,mcm robinhood…lu so K-Ki arr…I know u r doing good thing mah,along the way…u need good fren to cheer u up mah,if not,u will tension die you..so what I can do is super little thing lor…u happy other ppls happy then I oso happy lo...
2015-08-18 14:06
duitKWSPkita
waoo
Sunkist118...
so many 3000 thousand years never chat with you...
My gaji is RM1200 the after adjusted minimum wage... No EPF no SOSCO and apa apa itu benefits....... No choice la... start from humble work... Cleaner ma.... yes... apart of cleaning and lap tingkap..... I curi curi baca market news....
2015-08-16 23:00