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Why would Buffett buys into airline business? - felicity

Tan KW
Publish date: Tue, 15 Nov 2016, 02:15 PM

Tuesday, November 15, 2016 

 
 
So the below video on CNBC, shows that Warren Buffett is really in the know on the purchase, so much so that he felt he was not doing justice to Southwest if he did not buy the airline's stock after buying the other big three i.e. Delta, American Airlines and United. This action also shows that he is picking industry and not really picking stocks as he bought all 4. (He put more money actually into American Airlines)

http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000567979

This obviously made a big turnaround that caused some of observers to be wondering why would Buffett buys into a low profit airline business?

Let me take some guesses:

- Things change, industry changes as well. From a fiercely competitive industry, it has now become somewhat more conducive for players to co-exist. Airlines have now become more aware of their costs as well. Flying is no longer a rich people's travel alone. It is towards the masses, hence the full-fledged are also cutting down on frills.
- Low cost of oil. One of the largest costs component is oil depending on at what price, oil comprise of around 30% to 50% of airlines operating costs. It seems that oil price at this low USD40 - 50 is here to stay for a longer period.
- Transportation is ever more important. In the age of Uber becoming mainstream as compared to old days "sapu-teksi" was illegal, there are many spaces or industries that are or could be affected. Hotels can be affected by AirBNB. Banks is in a precarious situation. (I do not know how to invest on banks, although I still feel it is not that bad, hopefully). Media has obviously been the one that has changed. Shop retail is affected by e-commerce.
The one that could be triumphing is transportation be it towards people transport or goods transport. People travel more and more - so much so that these people are constantly on the move. They do business from one city to another, one country to the other. Casual tourists are also growing above average economic growth.
This calls for roads, rail, air transport to be positively affected. But the way some of these companies do business have to change.
Cathay rebranded its DragonAir. Why?
SIA bought into Tiger Airways. Why?
(This does not mean these airlines can be purchased. See Cathay Pacific and SIA still, their returns have not been good.)
In US, it is about the same or could even be better. New airlines are now into a business that is mature but still growing healthily - in which point it refers to lesser competition from newcomers but healthier and not careless competition among the status quo airlines.
- lesser more obvious areas to invest in. As mentioned earlier, media, banks and additionally insurance may not be what they seem to be 20 years ago. It was different then from today.


 
 

 

Discussions
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younginvestor92

He had said before that he's going into high capital expenditure business because he is holding large amount of cash pile and had no choice but deployed into average business because it's still better than the bond's yield.

2016-11-15 14:32

PlsGiveBonus

Warren Buffett cannot be trusted one
His flip flop is top notch

2016-11-15 14:37

ronnietan

One thing that has not changed in this region is our airlines have to take massive USD loans, and also national airlines that are subsidised by taxpayers. For US airlines, borrowing in USD does not lead to a forex timb bomb.

2016-11-15 14:55

Ricky Yeo

Consolidation in US airline industry result in improvement in return on capital

2016-11-15 14:58

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