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(Icon) Poh Huat (3) - Time To Load Up
Poh Huat will release its April 2015 quarterly results by end of this month (June 2015). Traditionally, April and July quarters are weak while October and January quarters' net profit are almost 100% higher.
The seasonality of net profit is primarily related to its Vietnam operation, which exports home furnitures to the US, the demand of which is strongest in the October and January quarters.
However, in latest two quarters, the Group's Malaysian operations had turned around substantially pursuant to internal restructuring.
Previously with PBT of only RM1 mil plus, the Malaysian division reported PBT of RM4.1 mil in January 2015 quarter, narrowing the gap with its Vietnam division.
The Malaysia division exports office furniture primarily to Canada. Unlike sales to US, this division is not so affected by seasonality.
In my opinion, the higher weightage of the Malaysia division's contribution to proftibility will help to smooth out the seasonality effects traditionally associated with Poh Huat. In other words, there is likelihood that the coming quarter result will not be as weak as previous years.
| (RM mil) | Jan13 | Apr13 | Jul13 | Oct13 | Jan14 | Apr14 | Jul14 | Oct14 | Jan15 |
| Revenue | 95.0 | 70.8 | 90.9 | 101.3 | 95.5 | 84.4 | 89.1 | 108.1 | 105.1 |
| > Msia | 39.1 | 28.2 | 29.2 | 31.1 | 33.4 | 35.7 | 34.7 | 34.5 | 36.4 |
| > Vnam | 54.3 | 41.0 | 60.1 | 68.9 | 60.9 | 47.4 | 53.6 | 72.7 | 67.7 |
| > others | 1.5 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 1.0 |
| PBT | 6.2 | 0.6 | 2.6 | 10.0 | 7.1 | 3.4 | 4.4 | 13.3 | 10.0 |
| > Msia | (0.4) | (2.2) | 0.3 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 2.7 | 4.1 |
| > Vnam | 6.9 | 3.2 | 8.3 | 10.0 | 5.3 | 3.1 | 3.6 | 10.4 | 5.8 |
| > others | (0.2) | (0.4) | (6.1) | (1.0) | 0.3 | (1.0) | (0.7) | 0.3 | 0.2 |
| Net profit | 4.8 | 0.1 | 1.3 | 10.6 | 6.3 | 2.6 | 3.9 | 11.0 | 8.2 |
| EPS (sen) | 4.5 | 0.1 | 1.2 | 9.9 | 5.9 | 2.4 | 3.6 | 10.4 | 7.7 |
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CS Tan
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This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
pathfinder
I like your analysis. I think it is not impossible that (baring any surprises) the EPS this coming quarter could be as high as 5 to 6 sens. This compares very well against the last year's same quarter of 2.4 sens. Assuming 5.5 sens, Pohuat's whole year EPS could be RM0.27. A PE ratio of 9.5 could mean short term target price of RM2.57.
2015-06-22 13:50