kcchongnz blog
The Most Important Thing: 2017 Christmas Reflection in FVI kcchongnz
“Price is what you pay; Value is what you get”
Time flies. Without noticing it, I have been dwelling in i3investor for more than 5 years already. As a retired engineer with some academic training in finance and investing, and a ferocious reader of investing books and articles on fundamental value investing (FVI), and a retail investor and practitioner, I do have time and some knowledge and experience in investing. I have so far shared a total of 304 articles in i3investor. These articles are mainly for sharing of investing principles, strategies and methodologies. I have also shared my analysis on a number of stocks, and put up a number of portfolios since 5 years ago. I must say I have received many favourable and motivating comments and feedback. Similarly, I also have my fair share of criticisms, like some of these below,
[Posted by Flintstones > Dec 2, 2016 11:54 AM | Report Abuse 
But KC indeed has no business sense. Our beloved kc chong extrapolates past earnings into the future without assessing the industry dynamics. That is not a good investor to me.
Posted by Flintstones > Dec 2, 2016 12:00 PM | Report Abuse
Dont care about how he make money, brother. When I see somebody bringing i3 readers to holland, I must shoot.
Posted by paperplane2016 > Dec 2, 2016 12:03 PM | Report Abuse
hahahaha.,.,.,.,.,.,kc chong write fancy FA studies, but still fail to make money.
Reason: Tak ADA COMMON SENSE mah!!!!
hahahaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa ]
I must also say these criticisms also motivated me to continue writing and sharing, you may call them as “defending” the principles, strategies and methodologies of FVI I am employing.
Taking the opportunity of this Christmas holiday season, I will do a little reflection on what I have written and shared in i3investor specifically on the returns of the stocks I have shared to answer the questions above, if
- Is FVI no business sense?
- Is FVI no common sense?
- Does FVI extrapolate past earnings into future?
- Do I fail to make money?
- Do I, or FVI deserve that cynical “hahahaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa” in the comment above?
And more importantly,
- do I bring people to “Holland”, or made people lost all their money as mentioned above?
Stock Picks Criteria
The principle of my selection of the companies is based on buying good companies at cheap prices. Stocks were selected based on earnings, generally using the Magic Formula Investing principle.
First, we treat investing in a stock as investing in part of a business; how it makes money, has it been consistently making good money all the time, is the business durable, or had a future etc.
Secondly most stocks selected had steady earnings and cash flows in the past and at the present. They generally have high return on capitals, maintaining or increasing from the past to present, with return much higher than their costs of capitals. Most of them were with none, or little debts. Some of them had good future growth potential too although this was not specifically emphasized then.
Next, after a good company was selected based on the above criteria, then come this “most important thing”, what is its value versus its price. Price-Value relationship could be viewed from a number of angles; PE ratio, P/B value, P/Cash flows, Dividend yield, Enterprise value versus earnings of firm (EV/Ebit), or a wide margin of safety based on intrinsic value from discount cash flows analysis.
In general, the selections of the stocks were based on the very basic principle of what I have been propagating and imparting in i3investor all the while;
“Buying good companies at reasonable or cheap prices”, or
“Buying mediocre companies at very cheap prices”
In fact, there is a more important element in investing which many investors cannot appreciate; the risk mitigation, which the above also taking care of.
Isn’t the above common sense?
Aren’t they business sense?
If not, then what is business sense, and what is common sense?
In this auspicious Christmas, I wish to deal in more details with this allegation that I was bringing i3investor readers to “Holland”.
My stock picks sharing in i3investor the last 5 years.
In this article, I would like to summarize all the stocks I shared in i3investor since 5 years ago, using FVI strategies and methodologies described above, and their returns. With this, I also hope to prove to you again the value of FVI.
In my recent article, “Investing in Bursa for 5 years: 5 年的等待”in the link below,
https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/kcchongnz/138098.jsp
I have shown that the portfolio of 10 stocks named “GE13 Watch” established in i3investor on 21st January 2013 returned 146% against the return of the broad market of just 20% in about 5 years.
My second portfolio of 11 stocks named “2013 2H Stock Pick Challenge” established in i3investor on 1st August 2013 and as shown in the link below, “Search for The Holy Grail in Investing: The Magic Formula” returned 175% in about four years against the return of the broad market of just 10% during the same period.
https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/kcchongnz/127825.jsp
I have shared the above two portfolios several times in i3investor, purely for showing the importance of FVI for building long-term wealth slowly but surely.
This time, I will show you the return of other stocks subsequently shared by me in i3investor, to see if there is any consistency in the investing outcome using FVI.
Note that I have included all the stocks shared and their investment thesis, without choose and picked.
My stock selection in i3investor in year 2014 and beyond.
Table 1 in the Appendix shows the stocks selection I have shared, with detail analysis, as published in i3investor with the links for ease of reference. These stocks were again selected using the principle of “Buying good stocks at reasonable or cheap prices” as described above, specifically using the principle of “Magic Formula”, except for Kuchai, Perak Corporation and Perstima, which was based on asset-based negative enterprise value investing, risk arbitrage and privatization and dividend discount model respectively. For ease of reference, the Magic Formula metrics were tabulated in Table 2 in the Appendix.
For more information on negative enterprise value and risk arbitrage, please refer to this link below,
https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/kcchongnz/45296.jsp
For Magic Formula,
https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/kcchongnz/51631.jsp
For dividend discount model,
https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/kcchongnz/85379.jsp
Table 2 in the Appendix shows 24 stocks chosen from different industries, mostly using the Magic Formula investing strategy from 22nd March 2014, returned an average of 77% compared to the generally flat market over the same 4 years period, or for an excess return of 75%.
Three quarters of the stocks made positive return, or 75% success rate. Many stocks over-performed the market by wide margins, with 8 out of 24, or one third of them returned more than 100%, with half of them more than 200%.
Prestariang’s adjusted share price went up to a peak of RM3.00 two years after its selection, or 154% return, before retreating to half, or just RM1.49 now, for just 26% gain. Similarly, Latitude Tree went up to its peak of RM7.50 one and a half year after picked, Magni-Tech to RM7.60 half a year ago, Pintaras to RM4.60 half a year after pick, Perstima to RM8.10 half a year ago, and Hevea Board to RM1.67 five months ago.
On the other hand, the share prices of Tong Herr, Uchitech and Elsoft only rose substantially recently after more than two years of selection. FVI requires patience, sometimes a lot of patience, but the rewards were fulfilling, very satisfying..
The high returns stocks were mostly with high Magic Formula scores, i.e. they were good companies selling at cheap prices, based on their latest performance then.
The substantial loser of Perak Corp was due to the faltering of its privatization plan at RM3.90 due to rejection of a major shareholder, and subsequently its shareholders’ destroying move of building the high cost theme park. Coastal Contracts lost 59% due to huge borrowings after its involvement in two high-cost offshore oil jacked-up units and subsequently the sharp drop in oil price. Plenitude faltered and lost 44% as the property market went into doldrum after its pick.
Smart investors would foresee the problems above and would have cut-loss the three stocks above, and took profit for Perstima as it showed some structural change with the sharp increase of its raw materials, as their fundamentals had clearly changed. The average return of the portfolio would be much better at over 100% return.
So, have I brought anybody to “Holland” by sharing my stock selections?
Yes, if one follows my selection and put all their bets, or “sailing” in Coastal, Perak Corporation, or Plenitude. But these were only three of a total of 24 selections, or 12% of the stocks.
No, it would be completely the opposite if they “sailing” on the nine stocks; Magni, MFCB, Padini, Scientex, Tong Herr, Uchitech, Elsoft, Padini and KESM, or 38% of the stocks. They would be looking at close to 200% gain.
Even if one were to buy all the stocks selected in equal weighting, and held them to now, he will still make very good return at 77%, while the broad market was flat during the same period.
So, the question is, did I bring anybody to “Holland”, or was it likely that I had helped many people making good returns over the last four years with my sharing of stock selection in i3investor?
Conclusions
I have shared a couple of stock portfolios using the FVI strategies and methodologies in year 2013. Here I have also showed the use of FVI in 24 specific stocks selection in 2014 until now. They are all in established public records in i3investor. They consistently provided with extra-ordinary return, in the short term, as well as the long term. More importantly, the risks involved were low. The principles, strategies and methodologies are plausible. They are simply logic. They follow established and proven successful process.
In this Christmas day, I would like to reflect what Thomas Gayner said,
"I’m always amazed that someone would say they weren’t a value investor – I wouldn’t admit it even if I wasn’t. It just seems silly to think about investing any other way." Thomas Gayner
As for the question of whether I am a good investor and “KC Chong failed to make money”, I will leave it for individuals to judge. In fact, whether one makes huge money in the stock market, with whatever means, provide no value to the society, and there is no point bragging about it, as many people just detest it.
I would be able to provide value to the community if I can convince you, and assist you to pick up the knowledge of FVI in a structured manner before you indulge in the stock market. If you are interested in this, you may contact me at,
ckc13invest@gmail.com
Why do people continue to ridicule FVI despite all the evidences that it has worked, it is still working, and that it is continuing to work?
I can borrow what Seth Klarmen has said below,
Wishing you merry Christmas and a happy new year.
KC Chong
on 2017 Christmas Eve
Appendix
|
Table 1: links |
||||||||
|
1 |
Kuchai |
http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/kcchongnz/45296.jsp |
||||||
|
2 |
Prestariang |
http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/stock_pick_challenge_2013_2h/42400.jsp |
||||||
|
3 |
Perak corp |
http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/kcchongnz/48584.jsp |
||||||
|
4 |
Magni-Tech |
http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/kcchongnz/51356.jsp |
||||||
|
5 |
Latitude |
http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/kcchongnz/48173.jsp |
||||||
|
6 |
MFCB |
http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/kcchongnz/47535.jsp |
||||||
|
7 |
Padini |
http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/kcchongnz/45203.jsp |
||||||
|
8 |
Pintaras |
http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/kcchongnz/46408.jsp |
||||||
|
9 |
Scientex |
http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/kcchongnz/56316.jsp |
||||||
|
10 |
Tasco |
http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/kcchongnz/57483.jsp |
||||||
|
11 |
Plenitude |
http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/kcchongnz/59102.jsp |
||||||
|
12 |
Tong Her |
http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/kcchongnz/59618.jsp |
||||||
|
13 |
UchiTech |
http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/kcchongnz/62058.jsp |
||||||
|
14 |
Coastal Contracts |
https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/kcchongnz/70035.jsp |
||||||
|
15 |
Elsoft Research Bhd |
https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/kcchongnz/74663.jsp |
||||||
|
16 |
Kupulan Fima |
https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/kcchongnz/78580.jsp |
||||||
|
17 |
Perstima |
https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/kcchongnz/85379.jsp |
||||||
|
18 |
Padini |
https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/kcchongnz/85800.jsp |
||||||
|
19 |
ECSICT |
https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/kcchongnz/90072.jsp |
||||||
|
20 |
Hevea Board |
https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/kcchongnz/97409.jsp |
||||||
|
21 |
KESM |
https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/kcchongnz/104749.jsp |
||||||
|
22 |
Thong Guan Holding |
https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/kcchongnz/104956.jsp |
||||||
|
23 |
FAVCO |
https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/kcchongnz/114879.jsp |
||||||
|
24 |
SKP Resources |
https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/kcchongnz/136491.jsp |
||||||
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Discussions
9 people like this. Showing 50 of 153 comments
Ricky, your thought process is wrong, totally wrong. If you work for KYY, he will be very upset, and maybe use couples of vulgar languages also I guess?? haha.
2017-12-26 12:40
Well suits you. If you enjoy judging people based on result, just like how you would judge yourself based on your own result, if that makes you happy. Maybe you can ask the FM in your profile picture. I was expecting more reasoning from you instead of haha.
2017-12-26 12:45
Ricky, it is like going school, end of the day, result is how ppl judge you. But result is not everything. A person might be good at designing, which is hard to judge from academic. But still, you need to have some measurements, and that is the return year by year on FM which help you make decisions.
A person might score 9A, 10As, 13As, or 16As in SPM, but he/she might fail miserably say, in subject he not good at like Biology is tough for a accounting students.
But we at the investment field need to have a measurement, that why people look at result, be it 5-yr, 10-yr, 3-yr, against benchmark, against morningstars whatsoever.
2017-12-26 12:50
Well, if George Soros and Warren Buffett is not generating great results consistently past 20 years, you think people will thought of them as great investors not?
Yes, their thought process matters, but it is results that matters also, and RETURNs (numbers!) that is telling you the stories.
2017-12-26 12:53
Of course result matters, but like you said, 10 years is minimum requirement, how many years have you look at before judging someone? Like I say if a fund or investor can blow up after 5 years of great result, is it better to judge based on process or outcome? I would say understanding someone's process give you a better idea of guessing if he will do well as oppose to looking at result.
2017-12-26 13:05
And as much as result is important, dont you think comparing your 100% return in HYC with a one year portfolio 9% return is nonsense to say the least?
2017-12-26 13:07
Now I've own Scientex since 2012, cumulative gain is 700%+ now, can I be the winner please? Every time when I can't win an argument;talk down someone;boost my ego (like my balls aren't big enough), I'll bring this sentence out 'What!? only 100% a year, I record 700% in 5 years or 140% a year'. Stupid.
2017-12-26 13:21
I invested 4k of HSBC share since 1986 (3200 shares) with advised from my badminton kaki at that time. Already 31 years. Already appreciated 600 times. Can I be the winner?
I personally i think, this is a stupid question. This is pure luck, ok
2017-12-26 14:11
whatever Ricky, we can argue till cow come home and no conclusion, Scientex 700%, superln 500%, KESM 700%, whatever. 9% is just not acceptable in bull market, the FM fail. FIRED!
2017-12-26 14:22
PAPER, IF 9% KENA FIRED...HOW ABOUT YOUR 4.9% RETURN BELOW? OR DID I MISS SOMETHING? KIKIKI.
193) paperplane2016 +4.9% 104887.57 http://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/pfs/70928.jsp
24% MSC 3.290+0.08 3.930 7500|20% AEONCR 13.520+0.727967 9.573333 1500|15% EKOVEST 0.940+0.112 0.952 15000|11% DATAPRP 0.280 0.135 40000|7% FLBHD 1.250 1.600 6000|5% JCBNEXT 1.720+0.02 1.700 3000|5% BORNOIL 0.090 0.113333 57000|4% HEXZA 0.805+0.05 0.925 5500|4% TIENWAH 1.560+0.1 1.760 2800|4% MMCCORP 1.890+0.04 2.330 2000|0% BORNOIL-WD 0.040 0.050 4750 (104877.45:10.12|259.38)
2017-12-26 14:31
Guy believe me , if you today earn a lot money in stock market or even you got 10 year experiance recod , don't happy so fast , 1 year bad luck your portfolio will be reduce 50%。reduce50% is very easy , don't believe? Just wait and see ， Malaysia stock market not same with Us market
2017-12-26 14:38
Why KC never recommend Hengyuan? May be he would recommend next year when the fundamental of HY already proven and stable.
2017-12-26 17:13
>>>John Lu Haha...77% in 4 years?...this year HYC alone already make more than 100% la
25/12/2017 10:03<<<<
Kindly share here for our education, all your previous Hengyuan equivalents of past years?
>>>>John Lu Long term? The investment method has change over the past few decade...if 30 years ago u said invest hold for long term still can work for those company like PUblic bank, genting etc...nowadays is momentum trading which we look for 3 months to max 12 months lo <<<<
So, John Lu's method is momentum trading.
When share prices go up, he buys. When share prices go down, he sells.
No wonder, he was very angry at those who are value investors.
>>>>Unless u have 10 mil or 20 mil cash like Kyy then ok la buy and keep to get dividen every year...if less that 5 million must have fast capital gain...buy long term? How long is long term? 10 years? 20 years? Keep for next generation? Come on...dont make me laugh lo
26/12/2017 00:08<<<<
Essentially, John Lu has little capital and needs to make his capital quickly. Thus, he has to keep being active in the stock market.
But the truth is the majority loses money in the stock market. Why?
Yes, I can see that KC's method will not be his cup of tea.
2017-12-26 17:57
Those in the investing industry will likely dislike KC's investing method. Buy and hold for the long term ... how are these investors going to generate the commissions and fees for those working in this industry.
Yet, as a long term serious investors, your return from the market is not timing the market or playing the market, but do exactly what KC advocates.
It works for Buffett and a few others. It should work for you too, provided you have the knowledge and the temperament.
2017-12-26 18:01
>>>paperplane Look at the list above, you think the top 10-20 are just randomness? I don't think so.
26/12/2017 10:28<<<
Unless he shares his last 20 years experience, the last 4 or 5 years may just be randomness or just the market lifting up all boats.
2017-12-26 18:03
>>
Henly I invested 4k of HSBC share since 1986 (3200 shares) with advised from my badminton kaki at that time. Already 31 years. Already appreciated 600 times. Can I be the winner?
I personally i think, this is a stupid question. This is pure luck, ok
26/12/2017 14:11<<<
HSBC has gone through very volatile periods over the last 41 years (since 1986).
Your statement just illustrates many points:
1. Select a good company
2. Invest early
3. Hold for the long term.
4. Stock market and returns can be very volatile over the short term (in fact, may lose 50% in 1 year)
5. In the long term, a good company grows intrinsic value and delivers great return.
6. The returns in the early years may seem not great, but at the end of a long investing period, the gains are just huge (from compounding).
7. Was it luck that you are holding a 600x multibagger today? Maybe but most of it is attributed to your ability to recognize a good company and holding them for a long time to capture its earnings power and the power of compounding. Yes, a little luck but a lot of right knowledge and temperament.
Imagine the next doubling of HSBC will deliver you a 600x2 = 1200x multibagger.
2017-12-26 18:09
Data and news flow are at a hyper speed with today internet technology. Information and news cannot be hide. Dissemination of information happen in second and minute. That is the reason why country leaders can no longer fool around with their lie to con the people at large. Today you can see religion preacher with video uploaded, only to be at the laughing stock of the community at large.
We have to admit that FVI approaches is out of date or just insufficient in today investing environment, don't be too ego and defensive.
2017-12-26 22:36
我看你是把中线投资和长线投资给搞乱了
你之所以说fvi out of date 是因为你根本就不会 fvi.....fvi 多数是走长跑的，资金慢慢增长，而不是说你投资，很快就可以看到资金翻倍
再说他根本就没有说过 fvi 是最棒的，他只是告诉大家正确的投资观念
Posted by Henly > Dec 26, 2017 10:36 PM | Report Abuse
Data and news flow are at a hyper speed with today internet technology. Information and news cannot be hide. Dissemination of information happen in second and minute. That is the reason why country leaders can no longer fool around with their lie to con the people at large. Today you can see religion preacher with video uploaded, only to be at the laughing stock of the community at large.
We have to admit that FVI approaches is out of date or just insufficient in today investing environment, don't be too ego and defensive.
2017-12-26 23:02
Haha..today HYC up another 96c...1 day up equal to KC whole year 9%...who is the winner now?
2017-12-26 23:06
9% in stock? If Unit trust then I accept...but in stock with 9% somemore in bull market...can u accept??
2017-12-26 23:08
What is the problem with 9% return per year, in my opinion, 9% consider excellent return as well, compared to FD 4% and kwsp 6%, I am believed many big fund also doing around 10%, even when market is bull on 2014, Ambank return is 7%, constantly 9% for 25 years, I am very happy already, stock king W.B return is around 20% per year. I might could wrong. Thank you.
2017-12-26 23:24
@Henly I'm not out here to defend FVI or anything, but your statement is just load of nonsense. Don't you think you are contradicting yourself. It is precisely the point that hyper speed causes the value of information to approach zero, so whats your point of trying to be a fast decision maker or glue on the news 24/7.
2017-12-27 04:43
Ricky, you talk so many cock, come, lets join the competition next 10 years, then we compare, then you can make your hypocrite comments here.
2017-12-27 17:21
this logic is funny
if earning 9% is student scoring C
earning 70% is scoring A
You telling the whole word student A is no better than student C
and the logic so called no linear blah blah blah.
So SPM socring 9A is not better than 9C or 9D, that is a marvellous idea indeed.
2017-12-27 17:28
Sexy babe doesn't understand randomness, how to differentiate between skill and luck, focus too much on outcome than process, underestimate chance and overestimate skill, fooled by insider view, neglect base rate and outside view, thinks in linear, can't deal with uncertainty. Logic comes from reasoning and deduction. And after so many examples you still don't get it. Let me know if you are interested. I can recommend you a few books.
2017-12-28 07:24
Hengyuan up another rm1.10 yesterday...how about KC total portfolio?? Still 9%? Haha haha
2017-12-28 07:35
I agree with Flintstones, buy HY and Petron, so you can look successful. It works on your ego perfectly!
2017-12-28 08:01
John surely you can print out your total gain on Hengyuan and frame it on the wall so when anyone wants to discredit you, you can take a photo and show them. Maybe keep it in your wallet but that can be quite heavy because ego gets too big. But just dont get too eager, because someone who bought IFCAMSC will come up with their 1000% gain.
2017-12-28 08:39
Ego is good for investment, but manage it. Warren buffett, George Soros, Seth, Ray Dalio all have high EGO.
2017-12-28 08:51
I don't believe in the BULLSHIT or Randomness. One of in wallstreet is a TOTALLY BULLSHITTING BOOKS.
If really random, why people still PAY BILLIONS TO HEDGE FUND MANAGERS? MUST WELL THROW THE DART TO PICK STOCKS
2017-12-28 08:53
John Lu 《HENGYUAN upgrade to SIA LANG》 TP RM30
Haha...paper sifu..dont waste time talking to stone...we counting our profit in HYC batter...oh yea sexy babe tp rm30
2017-12-28 08:55
yeah, sexy babe.
Buy one stock return 100% over good
or Buy 10 stocks return 9% good.
Well, if that makes you happy, go buy 10 stocks and return 9%, good luck
2017-12-28 10:08
As always, they can only go back to their prized winner when they exhaust their argument points.
2017-12-28 10:47
When you are rich, you can hire people to service you, not mean that you are good or better. Be respect to engineer, without engineer, you may still staying in a cave. Newton is a lousy investor. but his contribution to the world (Newton's Theories) is much greater than any investor or rich man.
2018-01-02 13:05
FIGHT la , I saw a lot people when they start invest their earn money and talk big but finally all gone , someone go jump aeroplanes 。
2018-01-02 13:29
As you can see this 2year many newbie sifu coming out to teaching investment 。that is niama puki , I duno why malaysia people so much idiot attend the class 。wear black glasses wear like a boss。
2018-01-02 13:39
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This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
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OTB wanna give chance to new people, same to KYY
2017-12-26 12:38