New vehicle sales in Malaysia, also known as total industry volume (TIV), came in at 62,833 units in Feb 2024 (-4% MoM, -1% YoY), easing MoM on a shorter working month due to the Chinese New Year break. With 2MCY24 TIV making up 18% of our full-year projection of 710k units (-11% YoY), we consider the number meeting our expectation. Our full-year projection is a tad lower than the 740k units projected by Malaysia Automotive Association (MAA). We hold the view that the impending fuel subsidy rationalisation will likely hurt demand for mid-market models, while remaining optimistic on the sales of affordable vehicles. The industry’s earnings visibility will be backed by a booking backlog of 200k units, unchanged compared to a month ago. Our sector top pick is MBMR (OP; TP: RM5.80), which focuses on the affordable segment. It also offers an attractive dividend yield of about 9%.

TIV came in at 62,833 units in Feb 2024 (-4% MoM, -1% YoY), easing MoM on a shorter working month due to the Chinese New Year break. With 2MCY24 TIV making up 18% of our full-year projection of 710k units (-11% YoY), we consider the number meeting our expectation. Looking ahead, we believe Mar 2024 TIV will be higher than Feb 2024 driven by Hari Raya Aidilfitri promotional campaigns.

A detailed analysis of the passenger vehicle segment in February 2024 at 57,979 units (-2% MoM, +3% YoY) are as follows:

Overall, passenger vehicles segment eased MoM on shorter working month from Chinese New Year break, but remained on a growth trajectory YoY. Toyota, Mazda and Proton managed to sustain sales on continuous promotion on their vehicle’s offerings and overflow of vehicles delivery from lower base in the previous month.

Toyota’s (+43% MoM, -15% YoY) sales were driven by its popular top models, namely the all-new Vios, Yaris, Corolla Cross and Hilux. Based on sales projection, Toyota currently has 20k backlogged orders (3−6 months). Mazda (+35% MoM, +22% YoY) was driven by exceptional response for its Mazda CX-30 CKD, the CX-5 and CX-8. Based on sales projection, Mazda currently has 3k backlogged orders (3−5 months). Proton’s (+4% MoM, -5% YoY) sales were mainly driven by the all-new X70, X50 and X90 (2,683 SUV units sold, making up 21% of sales), and supported by the all-new S70, as well as face-lifted Persona, Iriz, Exora and Saga (collectively known as PIES). Based on sales projection, Proton currently has 31k backlogged orders (up to 12 months for the X50 and by 3 months for other models).

Perodua’s (-8% MoM, +10% YoY) sales continued to be propelled by the all-new Perodua Alza and all-new Perodua Axia, with equally strong sales of the Bezza, MyVi, Ativa models. Based on sales projection, Perodua currently has more than 120k backlogged orders (up to 12 months for the Alza and Bezza, 4 months for the Ativa/Myvi, and up to 3 months for others). Honda (- 12% MoM, +1% YoY) sales were driven by the City, Civic and all-new HR-V. Based on sales projection, Honda currently has 15k backlogged orders (2−4 months). Nissan (-19% MoM, -12% YoY) is still losing out in the all-new vehicles race. Currently, Nissan depends on the face-lifted Nissan Serena S-Hybrid, Navara, and Almera Turbo with 1k backlogged orders (1−2 months).

Resilient demand for the affordable segment. For CY24, we project a TIV of 710k units (-11%) which is closely in line with the 740k units projected by Malaysia Automotive Association (MAA). The industry’s earnings visibility is still strong, backed by a booking backlog of 200k units as at end-Feb 2024, unchanged compared to a month ago. More than half of the backlog is made up of new models, alluding to how appealing new models are to car buyers. We expect a similar trend in CY24, given an equally strong line-up of new launches during the year. Meanwhile, excitement is building in the electric vehicle (EV) segment with the new launches of BYD Seal and Tesla Model 3 with expected introduction of locally-made first national EV (i.e. Perodua and Proton) in CY25.

We believe a new car is still an affordable luxury for most Malaysian households despite the high inflation and a slowing global economy underpinned by: (i) strong consumer confidence supported by a stable economy and a healthy job market, (ii) the affordability of motor vehicle underpinned by stable new car prices thanks to the deferment of new excise duty regulations (that could have resulted in prices of locally assembled vehicles increasing by 8%−20%) and potentially cheaper hire purchase cost with the introduction of the reducing balance method in the calculation of interest charges, and (iii) attractive new models.

However, we acknowledge that the impending fuel subsidy rationalisation is likely to hurt the demand for mid-market models, while remaining optimistic on vehicle sales in the affordable segment as the buyers, i.e. the B40 group which is its main target market, will be spared the impact of subsidy rationalisation, and also could potentially benefit from the introduction of the progressive wage model.

More battery electric vehicles (BEVs) in the market. Additionally, vehicle sales will be supported by new BEVs that enjoy SST exemption and other EV facilities incentives up to CY25 for CBU and CY27 for CKD. BEV new registrations had leapt significantly for the past two years (from 274 units in CY21 to over 3,400 units in CY22 and 10,159 units in CY23) and is on track to meet national target for EVs and hybrid vehicles which are 15% of total industry volume (TIV) by CY30, and 38% of TIV by CY40. Meanwhile, the government’s pledge to enable charge point operators (CPOs) to secure faster approvals for installation provides comfort as currently only 2,020 EV charging stations have been built to-date.

Our sector top pick is MBMR for: (i) its strong earnings visibility backed by an order backlog of Perodua vehicles of 120k units (almost half of its CY24 target sales of 340k units), (ii) being a good proxy to the mass-market Perodua brand given that it is the largest dealer of Perodua vehicles in Malaysia, as well as its 23% stake in Perusahaan Otomobil Kedua Sdn Bhd, the producer of Perodua vehicles, and (iii) its attractive dividend yield of about 9%.

Source: Kenanga Research - 20 Mar 2024