Exports expanded for the second straight month (2.9% YoY; Apr: 1.7%), the fastest pace in 15 months and beating market expectations (-1.0%)
− MoM: rebounded sharply (13.8%; Apr: -13.0%) following a sharp decline in the previous month.
Increased exports due to higher shipment of both non-O&G and O&G products
− Non-O&G (2.5%; Apr: 1.3%): expanded for the second consecutive month, partly as manufacturing (4.6%; Apr:8.8%), and agriculture (2.4%; Apr: 2.6%) continue to increase albeit at a slower pace. Meanwhile, mining fell for the 15th straight month (-4.8%; Apr: -17.0%) but growth contraction eased. By destination, growth was contributed by higher shipment to major trading partners led by the US (6.6%; Apr: 11.5%) and Japan (0.8%; Apr: -1.8%). Notably, shipment to China (-0.9%; Apr: -7.4%) remained weak but the contraction eased.
− O&G (8.4%; Apr: 7.3%): expanded for the second straight month, mainly due to higher export of mining (16.4%; Apr: 20.9%), while the contraction in manufacturing (-8.8%; Apr: -13.3%) eased.
Imports contracted (-8.8%; Apr: 10.1%), but better than expectations (-9.9%), weighed by weak shipment in non- O&G (-8.2%; Apr: 12.3%) and O&G (-12.3%; Apr: 1.0%)
− By category, weaker growth was mainly due to a broad-based weakness led by raw materials (-7.5%; Apr: 8.5%), followed by capital goods (-10.1%; Apr: 22.0%) and consumer goods (-16.2%; Apr: 2.8%) and partly due to high base effect in the same month of last year.
− MoM: rebounded sharply (14.8%; Apr: -5.9%) to a 12-month high following the fifth straight month of contraction.
Trade surplus widened (USD2.9b; Apr: USD2.7b), slightly lower than consensus (USD3.0b), as YoY exports outpaced the decline in imports
− Meanwhile, total trade declined in May (-2.9% YoY; Apr: 5.4%).
2024 export forecast maintained at 0.8% (2023: -11.3%)
− We reiterated our cautiously optimistic outlook despite two straight months of growth expansion recorded since April.This is primarily because we continue to expect a slower rebound in Indonesia’s exports in the near term, as exports of non-O&G products remained fragile alongside lower commodity prices. Additionally, the impact of the Red Sea conflict and port congestion has also added to our cautious outlook.
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....