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[转贴] 房地產的货幣幻觉 - 朱冠华
房价飆涨太快，造成很多人民陷入无力购屋的窘境。对于价格高企的房价，因为恐惧未来会继续上涨而更难圆房屋梦，而被迫动用更多家庭成员的储蓄来买房，增加了生活困难。
「货幣幻觉」一词是美国经济学家欧文费雪（IrvingFisher）于1928年提出来的，它是指人们只是对货幣的名义价值做出反应，而忽视其实际购买力变化的一种心理错觉。房地產也存在货幣幻觉现象。因为房屋价格都是动輒万元计算，对人民来说是大数目，故更容易產生货幣幻觉来误导人。
因为房地產的货幣幻觉最容易迷惑人，故很多人对房地產投资的回报率和相关风险並没有充分认识。尤其近年房价出现脱离长期平均涨幅的飆涨，更激起投资房地產的买气。但也因为房价飆涨太快，造成很多人民陷入无力购屋的窘境。对于价格高企的房价，因为恐惧未来会继续上涨而更难圆房屋梦，而被迫动用更多家庭成员的储蓄来买房，增加了自己生活的困难。
面临目前房地產销售低迷的情况，对未来一片迷惘，到底房地產未来何去何从？可否投资？若自住的话该如何精明购屋？
须立足长远利率
这里先解释一下投资方面。就投资而言，房地產其实並不是一个好投资，至少对我们普通人来说是如此。要破解房地產投资的迷失，就要分析房地產的货幣幻觉。
因为房地產是长期週期投资，最少需要20-30年，所以必须立足长远利率，就是利率在这段时间最高会多少？最低多少？平均多少的问题？而不该以眼前的低利率来作为风险標准。利率是有週期循环的，以20-30年週期计算，大马BLR平均利率介于8-9%，实际房贷利率会更高些。
在天然的黄金货幣体系下，房价不会上涨，这才是真实的常態。可现在是信用货幣体系，在这种以债务为本位的货幣体系下，大量信贷流向房地產，货幣相应房地產滥发而贬值，房价相应增值。
信用体系下，房地產价格长期增速都会比国內生產总值（GDP）低，这一点都不奇怪。因为房地產投资不具备生產性，它只是发展的副產品，是末不是本，因此涨幅比不上GDP是正常的。以大马长期GDP增速平均约5%计算，房价的增幅都低于此数，相对于房贷利率长期都高于5%，故房地產投资是並不划算的。
租金回报率难回本
就算出租赚取租金，你的回报率也很难超过7%（除少数人以特定方法才能超过）。也就是说你的租金几乎都拿去清还银行贷款，可能还需要倒贴。房价的增值是可看不可吃，如此辛苦20-30年供完房贷，其实只是替银行打工。
20-30年后，房价虽然比自己当年购买的价格增长了，但是效果还比不上单纯的投资股票指数基金（因为股票涨幅高于房產）。但是很多人忽略了计算这笔账，通常只看到最后的房价，却忽略了年平均增幅其实並不算多，也忽略了过程中付出的利息成本。如同一个人中了彩票时，会忽略自己过去几十年付出的购买成本一样。
房地產投资可以掀起，通常都是在利率週期的末段，这时候利率下调到歷史最低，银行信贷会前所未有的宽鬆。因为利率过低使得房租回报超越利息成本成为可能，加上信贷滥发推动了房价涨速超过平均值，远远超过了GDP升幅，房產泡沫就在这些条件下形成的。
我们印象中：「房產不会贬值，长期上总是上涨的」，其实只是悖离经济常识的歪理。房產根本不会自己上涨，房產只能不动的待在那里，无法开拓商业疆土，只能偏安一禺。虽然人口增长会带旺该区经济，但是房產供应也会增加，抵销了需求的增长，供需相抵，房產价格自然不会上涨。房价上涨只是货幣滥发製造的货幣幻觉造成的「外相」，当这需要不断滥印钞票注入房產的体制无力维持时，就会打回原型。
炒作迟早有结束的一天，利率达到歷史低点后必然会在未来反转上升，进入长期上升週期。现在大马房价上涨停滯，房產回扣促销力度增加，银行定存利息上升，贷款紧缩，正是利率开始进入反转的开始。利率上涨会造成更多信贷违约，借贷利息会侵蚀租金现金流，没有宽鬆货幣支持下的房价会暴跌，至到打回实际价值原型。
因为未来经济趋势不利于房地產，故当前绝对不是投资良机。而欲购买自住者，除非你能忍受房產价值∕价格下跌三、四成，利息涨过10%，那就可以去买。若不能承受，建议还是储蓄未来会因为高利率而增值的黄金，持有5年。到时候再將黄金转去购买房地產，除了可以避免房地產打回原形的损失外，也可因为房產兑黄金贬值而大幅度减少你购屋的金钱成本
http://www.orientaldaily.com.my/columns/pl20152734
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Discussions
3 people like this. Showing 33 of 33 comments
How about Bangsar? Damansara Height? Bukit Tunku? Can anyone still build double storey houses there?
房產根本不会自己上涨，房產只能不动的待在那里，无法开拓商业疆土，只能偏安一禺。虽然人口增长会带旺该区经济，但是房產供应也会增加，抵销了需求的增长，供需相抵，房產价格自然不会上涨。
2016-06-13 19:12
The basis of article is based on unlimited land available at a particular place. It is true if you need to pay RM1 for 1 little AIR, the next little AIR will be the same price because of unlimited supply of AIR.
Land is a limited resources, please go back to school to study what is theory of DEMAND & SUPPLY before writing any more article.
2016-06-13 19:24
Good to share but property still very good to invest as long as u have holding power.
2016-06-13 19:55
Good article. At least the writer has the gut to give different view. Well done Oriental Daily for not acting as the "speakers" for property developers. Keep it up.
2016-06-13 20:19
This is rubbish lah. Do he know what is leveraging or not? Do he know what is multiplexing effect or not?
2016-06-13 21:09
He say property price wont up...do he understand what is inflation? Although i agree the price is up too much
2016-06-13 23:23
few comments:
1. Gold is not really a good commodity to invest. Warren Buffet never invest in gold. Remember that.
2. We shall not take lottery as example. Lottery and share are not the same, one is gambling, another is investment, if you follow the correct way to invest.
3. Malaysia BLR in average from 1994-2014 shows average of 6.93% . Today the BLR is 6.85% , we are not very far from the average. Remembered in 2007-08 Sub-prime crisis, the BLR still stood at 6.75% , at time our national reserved was far more below what we having today.
I been listening to story of housing bubble since many years back. And today still listening to same old story. I dont see housing price collapsed, it just keep growing if not stagnant. BNM has taken steps in controlling house hold debts and decline unqualified home loan applicant. This will further strengten the banking loan system and down play the speculations.
2016-06-14 12:15
Wow.. cheeseburger.. wanna stress ur point also no need to post three times one.. hahaha anyway, this article has nothing special.. housing interest can be reduced with flexible loan and able to yield rental + appreciation, can gold yield any rental income
2016-06-14 12:25
Property price controlled by few factor. Put developer gain aside, let's look at the cost:
Labor - Gov has increased the minimum wages starting 1-July, will this not impact to construction sector?
cement, steel, bricks, aluminum - will these not affected by currency exchange rate, electric tariff, GST?
Land price - what was the price per sqft for a vacant land today compare to few years back? just take any example and compare. Are they going down?
DIBS - Gov removed the DIBS scheme, technically it should bring down the housing price as developer no longer bear the interest when during constructions, but did you see price being reduced?
2016-06-14 12:27
What he said has a little truth. Note that he didn't say prop price don't hike incredibly. I actually go bck calculated and found some similarity. Take real example: house in Puchong 190k in 1998 now (2016) sold for 700k.
The CAGR is around 7.26%/yr (if I calc correctly) but your BLR is 6.85% + stamp duty, legal fee etc., you actually didn't earn that much. Even you factor in rental, don forget you also need renovate.
Of course for happy path, you got a flexi loan and you always pay more than installment, you got tenant and it stayed for 20 yrs etc. then you of course you gain.
2016-06-14 14:11
cheeseburger: I agree with you although in the 80's...the story of housing bubble is around since ~83 and it wasn't until 87 that one can buy apartment at half the developer price. Of course, I don't see that coming now that it's easier for central bank to print money compare to the 80's.
2016-06-14 14:12
This article is good but if we understand the wisdom behind. House price increased might be due to currency depreciation and absolute value might not increase. If we compare house price to gold or something like how many egg or mcd cheeseburger or how many bottle of Tigerbeer we can buy with the price of your house, house price might not increase much. The only advantage of buying house is the leverage (only true when interest rate is low). During interest rate rising cycle, money that we get from property investment might not even able to beat the FD rate (not to say the loan rate). Even now, we can easily get FD promotion with more than 4 % rate. Look at what happened during US subprime crisis and that is a clear example. Anyway, that is not going to happen in Malaysia anytime soon as our property still relatively cheap.
2016-06-14 14:16
... + cukai taksiran, cukai tanah, maintenance fee, fire insurance, MATR, indah water ... all fixed cost, need to pay even no one stay
2016-06-14 14:18
If you have a condominium renting out to tenant now, try to calculate how many percent net you can get(deducted all the fee that you have to pay like maintenance, insurance, assessment fee, quick rent etc...)
2016-06-14 14:21
Condo 1000 sqr ft near LRT in Selangor easily > 700k, taking 30yr loan you still have to pay around > rm2500/month. How much you can rent? In Selangor, rental for new unit fully furnished 1700-1900, but then you easily spend another 30k for renovate/furnishing. And minus maintenance fee 250/month, insurance and all those fixed cost ... you still at a lost technically if you plan to sell in 30yrs
2016-06-14 14:28
octop. You are right, there are a lot of hidden cost we need to pay even we have no tenant. some people will always tell us how good is return from property investment and even create illusion that property price will continue to increase with high rate simply because they are making money from property transaction (property agent, lawyer etc..). Until you have an apartment or condo and rent it out, you will know the truth.
2016-06-14 14:43
US Sub prime crisis was caused by greed. The banker took higher risk to approve loan to those who may high chance to default loan. That is what our BNM is doing today to prevent such thing happen in m'sia.
2016-06-14 14:59
the main problem here is the mismatch of people salary hike as compare to commodity price. 10 years ago an engineer starting pay is $2400, today is still almost the same which is something wrong.
2016-06-14 15:06
Don't you see the same greed growing in Malaysia too? Be honest, a lot of us own more than one house. BNM try to curb lending and government built more affordable house. What does that mean? higher supply at cheaper price and lower demand (house buyer fail to get loan). What will happen to property price? We are lucky because inflation rate in Malaysia is not that high and BNM do not have the pressure to increase rate. else, it will be worse!
2016-06-14 15:10
end of the day, we will see if property price would drop like what people said 'bubble'.
2016-06-14 15:29
Cheeseburger, price might not drop but value will drop. For example, now you will need 2 kg of gold to buy an apartment but 5 years later, you only need 1.5 kg of gold to buy the same apartment. or another example, when you sell your house today, you can buy 40,000 CheeseBurger but when you sell it 5 years later, you can only buy 35,000 CheeseBurger. However, in RM term you might still making 20 ~ 30 % profit when sell 5 years later. You read the article again and digest what it try to tell. even last paragraph "房產价值∕价格下跌三、四成". 价值 and 价格 is 2 difference things. That is just my opinion and happy reading.
2016-06-14 15:44
speaking of maintenance cost - just so happen that I stayed in two place where the management post overdue maintenance fee on the board and a same mr. Ho turns out in few units of the two condo, each unit owing 20-50k fees. guess the lift service will drop before price drop. haha
2016-06-14 16:03
馬幣貶值你還跑出來講房地產要泡沫化,你到底哪根蔥有問題,人笨到這樣也不要怪大環境.未來的環境房地產不會泡沫化, 只是每一個人必須要盡量做到自己應該做的事情而已.
2016-06-14 17:14
All these are very academic stuffs, which isnt quite applicable to real life. In theory, if land expansion has no limitation, and the city alllow many activity zone, then the overall price grow has limitation as when it becoming unafforable, will be the time city expand. But on paper totally ignored human decision and preferences.
2016-06-20 18:44
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This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
little_snake
it is a junk
2016-06-13 16:48