Koon Yew Yin's Blog
Glove stock prices dropping is so illogical - Koon Yew Yin
Koon Yew Yin
Publish date: Tue, 29 Dec 2020, 07:09 PM
Koon Yew Yin
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An official blog in i3investor to publish sharing by Mr. Koon Yew Yin.
All materials published here are prepared by Mr. Koon Yew Yin
All materials published here are prepared by Mr. Koon Yew Yin
Top Glove made this announcement recently.
Top Glove confident of robust demand over next two years
PETALING JAYA: Top Glove Corp Bhd’s average selling price (ASP) is expected to jump 30% quarter-on-quarter in the second quarter of 2021, on the back of higher volumes from new capacities and product mix skewed towards higher margin nitrile gloves.
Kenanga Research in a report said Top Glove management is confident of robust demand over the next two years due to continuous acute shortage and surging Covid-19 cases in Europe and the US.
“Case in point, the US’ stockpile dropped from 16.9 billion pieces in December 2019 to two billion pieces in October 2020. Post Covid-19, inventory restocking cycle is expected to spur demand, coupled with increased usage arising from new user groups and increased hygiene awareness.
“Looking ahead into the second quarter of 2021, we highlight that Top Glove’s ASP in the second quarter of 2021 is expected to jump by 30% quarter-on-quarter, with higher volumes from new capacities and product mix skewed towards higher margin nitrile gloves.”
Kenanga Research said efforts to source for more worker accommodations and to improve existing ones have been ongoing, for which the group has already invested RM70mil. “In addition, the group has spent RM20mil purchasing 100 units of apartments over the past two months and is also renting more houses for its workers.
Over the medium term, the group has earmarked about RM100mil to be invested in workers’ facilities and accommodation, which includes building mega hostels in Klang and Banting with a combined capacity of 7,300 pax fully equipped with a suite of amenities and facilities ”The research house said that so far, 8,357 workers or
94% of those tested positive and have recovered or tested negative are ready to resume work.
“Presently, its Klang factories’ utilisation is slowly ramping up with the reopening of all 28 factories.”
Why Top Glove is confident of robust demand over the next 2 years?
Currently there are 81.7 million Covid 19 cases and 1.78 million deaths. USA has 19.8 million cases and 343,182 deaths. All these figures are still increasing more and more.
Due to Covid 19 pandemic, the demand for gloves far exceeds supply. All the glove makers can easily increase their selling prices to make more and more profit which should reflected on their share prices.
Many scientists predicted that the pandemic will not be under control for at least another 2 or more years despite the vaccinations because 80% of the world population needed to be vaccinated.
Moncef Slaoui, the chief scientist of federal vaccine distribution programme Operation Warp Speed, says the young and healthy should be last in the line. At least 70% or 80% of the US population of 330 million or 260 million have to be vaccinated in order to achieve herd immunity. In 1 week 2.1 million people have been vaccinated according to the Centres for Disease Control.
Based on this rate, to vaccinate 260 million people in US: 260 divided by 2.1 million = 124 weeks or 2.4 years to vaccinate. In fact, additional gloves will be required to inject vaccines as shown below.
Conclusion: The number of new Covid 19 cases are still surging and additional gloves are required to inject vaccines. Based on these facts, all the prices for glove stocks should continue go up, instead of dropping.
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Discussions
Be the first to like this. Showing 50 of 58 comments
Drop? Price was around $0.70 in Jan 2020 when covid19 started. Today's closing is around $6. Nearly 10 folds increase.
2020-12-29 20:39
Uncle also shareholder at PCCS...
Keyman188 still can recalled....Uncle last few months also holding Comfort & Ruberex...
What happened last few months!!!...
2020-12-29 20:40
Nearly 500 thousand citizen of 9 million population in Israel vaccinated since December 20th. 500k/9m = ?% /9days
2020-12-29 20:41
Those planning to buy at this price better done .. let uncle koon go out first
2020-12-29 20:45
I still remember uncle said what goes up must come down,supermax from march until now still up almost 1000% or more.i still remember hengyuan from 1.92 up to 19.90 then down to 2.55 last month
2020-12-29 20:47
The chart shows declining daily new cases in US but the author said otherwise.
With 'irrational' selldown in gloves, it is a rare golden opportunity for Mr Koon to Sai Lang. Mr Koon should be very happy to buy when others ate panic selling
2020-12-29 21:02
1)
The Black Death occurred between 1347-1351 and killed approximately 75-200 million people
The Spanish Flu occurred between 1918-1920 and killed approximately 17-50 million people
- The pandemics ended quicker and with lower deaths
- Both ended naturally without vaccines
2)
The COVID-19 outbreak started in Dec 2019
To date it has infected approximately 80 million with 1.76 million deaths (mortality rate 2%)
- On 11 Jan 20, the SARS-CoV-2 genetic sequence was published
- On 13 Jan 20, just 2 days later, Moderna finalised its COVID-19 vaccine codenamed mRNA-1273
- In Feb 20, the WHO stated it does not expect a vaccine to be available for 18 months
- WHO's minimum criterion for COVID-19 vaccine efficacy rate "~ 50% point estimate"
- In Mar 20, the WHO declared COVID-19 a pandemic
- In Nov 20, barely 10 months later, Phase III clinical trial results of mRNA vaccines were released
- Efficacy rates - Pfizer-BioNtech 95%; Moderna 94.1% - far exceeding requirements and what was ever thought possible
- In Dec 20, both mRNA vaccines were approved. Mass vaccinations in many parts of the world began
- The mRNA vaccines (and others) took less than 1 year to develop from proof of concept to human trials to approvals – what it takes on average 10 years to achieve
- mRNA vaccines are ground breaking medical technology that has multiple uses outside of the pandemic
All unparalleled feats and a miracle of modern medicine
Total Doses in 2021 (as at 28 Dec 20)
- Pfizer-BioNTech: 1.3 billion doses
- Moderna: 500 million - 1 billion doses
- AstraZeneca: 3 - 4.5 billion doses
- Novavax (1.3bil); Curevac (~400mil); J&J (~1bil)
- Gamaleya Institute Sputnik V (~1.2 bil doses)
- China - Sinopharm (2; ~1bil); Sinovac; Cansino
Total: 9.7 - 11.7 billion doses
2020-12-29 21:42
Dear Mr Koon Yew Yin,
My sincere advice is to diversify your portfolio into true, direct recovery companies
Top Pick is Genting Berhad (3182)
You have been in the market longer than many of us and been through more crises
1987 Black Monday
1997 Asian Financial Crisis
2008 Global Financial Crisis
2020 Covid-19 Pandemic
You would know that after all these years where many other companies have failed…Genting alone stands tall, not just surviving but having grown over the years...and now is on the cusp of a super growth cycle powered by: -
Skyworld Outdoor Theme Park
Resorts World Las Vegas
Japan Integrated Resort Bid
Genting Plantation (CPO record high)
Genting Power, Property, Oil & Gas (cyclical sectors in a massive upcycle)
Gaming is forever and eternal
Sincerely,
EMSVSI
2020-12-29 21:52
uncle will tell u,u are right but he doesn't have the time to keep for many years....hehe
2020-12-29 21:52
Don't keep on believing gloves stock will make a comeback shortly despite even with their superb and abnormal earnings in another few more qrly results . U will loose until u too late to regret if you keep leveraging fighting against the odds illogically . The trend for gloves stock is over and it may post wonderful and fantastic results won't going to move up the shares price . Many people get burnt up this time around including myself recently bcos of the illogical senses that gloves stocks are posting continuous wonderful results with higher demands and asp . That's why keep many unbelievable and got stuck up .
Even if there's a technical rebound it's short-lived and to further retreat . Stay Safe and get your resources protected .
2020-12-29 21:52
tg's next qr pat depends on 2 out of 3 months biz. it has many BIG ticket costs to pay too.
will be simply incredible if it can show growth?
2020-12-30 02:46
U can't fight IB with their Call Warrants weapon, yet another weapon will be upon Mr Market .....short-selling wef Jan 2021
2020-12-30 09:04
Call Warrants are the biggest destroyer of wealth. It's an instrument for which You pay the IB to screw You
2020-12-30 09:08
EKOVEST 3 MONTH AGO 0.52 NOW 0.53 CAN BUY? I CANT FIND ANY CHEAP STOCK NOW. PLEASE GUIDE ME.
2020-12-30 10:51
What is so illogical? Bursa, just like elsewhere is a market driven bourse, no logic-driven
2020-12-30 11:17
lol Kyy still think all of this 10x increase has logic behind? If logic can apply in stock then I will be rich like hell.
2020-12-30 11:40
It Will Take a Decade to Vaccinate all Americans
------------------------------------------------
'We certainly are not at the numbers we wanted to be at the end of December,' he said. Dr Jha was more critical, warning that the vaccine rollout in the U.S. is following a familiar, disastrous pattern. 'We're repeating all the mistakes we made with PPEs and testing all over again,' he said in a separate Today show interview.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9097175/US-goal-vaccinate-80-...
2020-12-30 13:04
This is due to old time investors are sticking to PE play.
Amazon was the first company to break this tradition.
2020-12-30 13:05
Silly comment- this GLOVES not Oil & Gas. Grow up will you.
------------------------------------
Sslee Another Dayang in the making
30/12/2020 7:42 AM
2020-12-30 13:07
https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/singapore/covid-19-first-vaccinations-ncid-healthcare-workers-pfizer-13864346
Who needs gloves?
2020-12-30 13:36
There one & only reason for the Glove Share prices falling are the Structured Warrants.
Take a look at the Graph of the Warrant Prices alongside the Share prices on corresponding days. Check it for yourself.
https://imgur.com/IieokEq
2020-12-30 13:39
LOL. He always play fool of retailers. One time say Topglov good others not good, later keep changing. Fox! No integrity person, no doubt he did charity but the personality is still no integrity.
2020-12-30 14:23
Yu_and_Mee, what's the point if the old cunning fox uses ill-gotten $$ from conning innocent retailers to do charity. The charity act will not be able to redeem his sin.
2020-12-30 14:30
Making money in the stock market requires certain skill set. Its not so simple as telling the whole world to buy the share you hold because its selling for a song. If it was so simple, then school boys can also make money. Looks like this old goon has a lot to learn.
2020-12-30 14:34
@Yu_and_Mee have you observed that the people who go temple, orphanage, old folks' home to do "charity" most often are those people who make a living in vices and sin business?
2020-12-30 14:42
illogical your old stubborn head, when trend has changed no one can stop it, if you refuse to admit that is your problem. lol
2020-12-30 15:06
Have some respects for elderly people lah. Your mother never taught you meh? Born out of wedlock is it?
2020-12-30 15:09
You respect Mahathir or not? Nope. Curse him all the way all day.
Respect is earned and kena see the person's attitude and actions. Not based on age alone.
2020-12-30 15:17
respect is earned. KYY just being a salty old man whenever his picks don't go his way
2020-12-30 15:44
Doctor and/or nurse sanitise his/her hand before vaccinate each patient
vs
Wear a pair of gloves and touch many patients
Which one you say better and more hygienic?
One pair of gloves for EACH patient? No way.
2020-12-30 15:52
He have not integrity indeed. Everytime kepala pusing one. Say until illogical and very loyal then turnaround said he gave up. Then when price up then he post another article again say he buy again.
2020-12-30 15:58
This old geezer has used this Internet space to manipulate shares he dabble for big gains. He will say anything just to lure traders to support him and buy his stock pick. Once he has unloaded the shares, he will turnaround and shit the company kaw kaw. This is an example of a man without ethics. Never trust people without integrity.
2020-12-30 16:34
Keep on using the old method of calculation but didn't notice the trend for gloves stock is over . Maybe he needs another margin called to make him admitted his flaws . U can be rich but not certainly to be wise and fight against the odds . Hedge funds are oledi changing direction so how powerful can u alone to fight against the odds .
No more averaging to loose foolish money even if u can afford . Is rather insane not to preserve your funds and buy others stocks for coverage .
2020-12-30 19:27
Take Insas and Kenanga as example. Based on their latest Sept 20 quarterly EPS of 9.85 sen & 7.03 sen, both should record single digit PE of less 5 times if their earnings sustain over 4 quarters. But why is their shares selling for pennies? The answer lies in their business. It is perceived that the earnings are not sustainable and is volatile in line with the trading sentiment in Bursa. Currently, it's red hot in Bursa with daily record volumes but why do investors not buy these shares like no tomorrow? Because of the perception that their earnings are not sustainable. So, this old geezer has much to learn in the stock market. It will be difficult for this old geezer to earn back his credibility due to the many stories of deceit posted in i3, cheers.
2020-12-31 14:10
This old geezer should look at so many companies selling at single digit PE in Bursa apart from glove stocks. Anyone pushing them up? NO. The reason is simple. They do not perceive these companies to have sustainable earnings at current prices. So, old geezer has a lot to learn although he boast of his broken track record even though he has a trail of losers such as Xingquan, JTIASA, Jaks, Dayang, among others. His golden rule and business sense is nothing but bullshit.
2020-12-31 14:14
You want logic ? Ask the IB. The only logic that applies on KLSE is the "Logic of Ripping Off the common Man by the Investment Banks"
Take a look at the table & Graph below. Tell me if there is common sense or IB disgraceful logic.
https://imgur.com/zXvQgm9
https://imgur.com/RoAq4Cm
2021-01-03 15:00
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This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
Dartmaster
Grandpa koon holding price is rm 1 you guys can play with him meh?
2020-12-29 20:34