• Maintain BUY and MYR1.60 TP, 54% upside. UEM Sunrise’s 4Q23 earnings met expectations. Although management has set a lower sales target of only MYR1bn (vs MYR2.1bn achieved in FY23), the revision in the masterplan for Gerbang Nusajaya which resulted in a much larger industrial component indicates potential catalytic developments in the pipeline. Management also admitted that it has received strong demand given the land’s strategic location. We believe UEMS is the best proxy for Johor’s multi-year growth story and remains one of our sector Top Picks.

• 4Q23 results. Sequential revenue was higher due to the disposal of land at Iskandar Puteri (MYR96m) and petrol station land (MYR16m). As such, EBIT margin was much higher at 22.9% during the quarter (vs 13.6% in 3Q23). Unsold completed properties fell slightly to MYR127m from MYR135m in the previous quarter. Net gearing remained stable at 0.45x. Management has also announced its new dividend payout policy of 40-60% (from 20-40%), and a 0.75 sen single-tier tax exempt dividend was declared, compared with 0.5 sen in FY22.

• Stronger sales momentum in 4Q23. 4Q23 property sales hit MYR367m vs MYR280m in 3Q23. Full-year sales of MYR2.14bn (vs MYR924m in FY22) was mainly driven by the Collingwood project in Australia (MYR874m), followed by The Minh (MYR463m) and The Connaught One (MYR213m). Take-up rates for both projects improved to 46% and 32% from 36% and 23% in 3Q23. About MYR800m worth of new projects are in the launch pipeline for 2024. These include MYR619m worth of new projects in the southern region as demand has been very encouraging in Iskandar Malaysia. Sales from Residensi ZIG in Kiara Bay should continue to flow to 2024 as it was only launched at the end of 2023.

• Industrial component upped substantially at Gerbang Nusajaya. Management revealed the revised masterplan of Gerbang Nusajaya during the virtual briefing yesterday. The industrial component now makes up 28.3% (1,136 acres) of total GDV of MYR45bn from only 1.6% (of MYR42bn before the revision). We understand that some proposals are currently on the table that have prompted the revision. Management indicated that the company has received strong demand from local and foreign parties from industries related to renewable energy and data centres given the strategic location of Gerbang Nusajaya, which is just off the Tuas link.

• Forecasts. We make minimal changes in our FY24F-25F earnings. Unbilled sales remained relatively unchanged at MYR2.65bn vs MYR2.66bn in 3Q23.

• Maintain TP. Our TP is based on 25% discount to RNAV, and 2% ESG discount given our ESG score of 2.9 for the company.

Source: RHB Research - 28 Feb 2024