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Stay BUY, new MYR1.58 TP (from MYR1.73), 38% upside, c.3% FY25F yield. 9M24 core PATAMI of MYR74.8m (+6.1% YoY) met expectations. We expect a stronger 4Q24, buoyed by new project recognition and a seasonally strong run rate. The soft YoY growth was due to a lower-margin business, delays in project implementation, and higher SG&A costs. We like CTOS Digital for its long growth runway, with a recession-proof business model against the backdrop of the secular digitalisation trend, as well as the growth in financialand credit-related solutions in ASEAN.
Within expectations. 9M24 core PATAMI made up 66.9% and 65.4% of our and consensus’ full-year forecasts, as we expect 4Q to make up the shortfall in its full-year performance. Revenue grew 20.1% YoY to MYR228m, driven by growth in key accounts and contributions from new acquisitions (+40.3%), commercial (+6.1%), and direct-to-consumer (DTC)(+12.7%) units.However, lower margins from the international and DTC segments, coupled with higher D&A charges and SG&A expenses, affected EBITDA growth (which was at just 1.2% YoY). The international business acquired in 3Q23 generated revenue of MYR28.7m (+47% YoY) and a profit of MYR2.6m in 9M24.
3Q24 results review. Core PATAMI grew 8.5% QoQ to MYR28.2m, supported by healthy revenue growth and associates’ profit. However, it was marginally lower YoY (-3.4%) despite the stronger revenue (+20.1%) and higher contributions from associates, mainly dragged by significantly higher SG&A expenses (+39%) and high finance costs stemming from additional workforce, regional expansions, and marketing expenses.
Management trimmed its FY25F guidance on earnings to MYR125m-130m from MYR150-160m, mainly on a more cautious growth outlook from the implementation of the sales cycle for its new digital solutions and commercial segment, coupled with additional expenses in relation to a higher headcount and expanding regional marketing efforts. Management remains confident on its growth trajectory, with a huge total addressable market of MYR2.7bn (penetration rate of 10-15%) based on current offerings.
Management shared details on the robust pipeline across key accounts and the commercial segment, where both activations and consumption are growing robustly amid digitalisation and regulation-driven needs, despite a longer sales cycle and conversions. Associates: JurisTech is expected to continue its momentum with a cumulative pipeline of MYR91m, along with RAM Holdings – given projects delays previously –while Business Online and Experian are expected to remain stable into 4Q24.
Forecasts. We maintain our FY24F net profit but cut our FY25-26F earnings by 11% and 9% after factoring in slower revenue and higher cost assumptions. As such, our DCF-based TP drops to MYR1.58 with a 4% ESG discount baked in. Downside risks: Regulatory environment changes, slowerthan-expected topline growth, and data security breaches.
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....