AUGUST 8 — In this weekend’s six state elections, Selangor has become the battleground for Pakatan Harapan (PH) and Perikatan Nasional (PN).

Not only is it the richest state in the country but also the political ground has shifted after being governed by PH for three terms and also due to the increase in voters by 54 per cent or 1.33 million young voters since the last state elections in 2018.

The latter is thanks to the automatic registration and lowering of voting age to 18.

PN will likely retain Kelantan, Terengganu and Kedah.

PH is expected to retain Negeri Sembilan as PN’s presence there is weak.

Hence both coalitions are concentrating their resources in this battle state.

Selangor has a total of 56 seats and back in the 2018 state elections, PH with Bersatu in their coalition then won 51 seats, while Umno took four seats and PAS one.

With the reconfiguration of parties after the Sheraton Move of 2020 and the national elections of 2022, PH now has 40 seats (PKR 19, DAP 15 & Amanah 6), Umno five, PBM two, Warisan one, PN five (Bersatu 4 and PAS 2), Pejuang two and one vacant seat.

A majority of the 56 seats in Selangor are Malay majority seats.

In the recent general elections held last year where there were no state elections in Selangor, PN captured six federal seats with PH securing the balance of 16 out of a total of 22 seats.

Undeniably a sizeable number of Malay voters abandoned PH and Umno but PH won mainly due to the overwhelming support of non Malay votes.

It is estimated more than 90 per cent of non Malays voted PH. That is why PKR and Amanah won many parliamentary seats although they got only 24 per cent of the Malay votes.

According to the analysis by The Edge Weekly recently, PN would have won 14 state seats if the results of parliamentary elections were superimposed onto the state seats. Another 14 seats would be won by PH by less than 10 per cent margin. The weekly also said PN received 49 per cent of Malay votes, PH 24 per cent and Umno 23 per cent.

What will be the voting trend in this Saturday’s elections?

PH will be standing in 44 seats with PKR in 20, DAP 15 and Amanah 9. Umno will contest the remaining 12 seats.

PN will contest all the seats with Bersatu 31, PAS 17 and Gerakan 8. Muda will stand in 14 seats.

The following will be the important factors that will determine the results:

1. Will the Malay votes for PN increase from the 49 per cent they got last year?

2. Will those Malay votes of 23 per cent that went to Umno be transferred to PH/Umno?

3. Will non-Malay votes still be more than 90 per cent for PH?

4. Will non-Malays vote for Umno?

5. How will the new 1.33 million voters vote?

6. Voter turnout.

For the tide of the upcoming state elections, I would not label it as the green wave but the Malay wave. And I believe this Malay wave for PN in Selangor will definitely increase to at least 60 per cent. It will be more in the rural areas but less so in the urban areas.

Umno still has sizeable grassroots and supporters in Selangor despite their dislike for their President Zahid Hamidi due to his corruption court cases and his support for PH. I believe they will still vote for the 12 Umno candidates but I am doubtful they will go for the other PH candidates where there are no Umno candidates or they will abstain.

They do not see PKR or Amanah as Malay based parties and their association with DAP will not help.

Non-Malay voters, especially the Chinese, will mostly vote DAP but they will be less enthusiastic to vote for PKR, Amanah or Umno candidates.

I believe the turnout of non-Malays in non-DAP areas will drop as they are not keen to vote for either PH or PN candidates. That is why DAP leaders are sounding the clarion call for Chinese voters to come out to vote.

As such, PN will easily win the 14 seats that they could have won based on last year's national elections trend and a big share of the other 14 seats that PH would have won with less than 10 per cent margins.

To win the state, any coalition will need 29 out of the total 56 seats.

The other actor to consider is the performance of PH in the last three terms. Although there have not been too many scandals, their performance has generally been lacklustre.

Also some people will simply want a change of government for the sake of change after 3 terms.

The Muda factor should also be considered as they attract the same cache of voters as PH.

Although none of the 14 Muda candidates are expected to win, they might pull enough votes from PH to allow PN to scrape through in some areas.

The new 1.33 million voters which represents more than 50 per cent of the total voters since the last state elections in 2018 are mainly young voters.

In fact 51.2 per cent of the voters are 39 years old and below,32.1per cent are 40-59 and 16.7 per cent are 60 and above.

The results of last year's parliamentary elections showed more young voters going for PN.

Voter turnout will also play a major role in determining the results.

The turnout in 2018 was 85.9 per cent and 2022 was 80.3 per cent.

I believe it will be less than 70 per cent for this state election.

And normally voters for the incumbent government will drop and increase for the Opposition for non-federal elections based on past trends.

Also I believe Malay voters will be more determined to turn up than the non-Malays as a lot of non-Malays are overseas or outstation.

Another key factor that could affect the tide of the elections or otherwise is the “feel good factor” of the masses.

Economically our country is worse off than during last year’s general elections.

Our currency has not only depreciated against the big currencies but also those of our neighbours. Inflation of basic goods is also affecting the general rakyat.

Will the Selangor Pakatan Government win for the 4th term?

My prediction is that PN will win at least 20-25 seats and will have a 55 per cent chance to win at least 29 seats to form the government.

* Datuk Lee Hwa Beng is a three-term former Selangor assemblyman. 

https://www.malaymail.com/news/what-you-think/2023/08/08/can-pakatan-lose-selangor-lee-hwa-beng/84137