And in terms of comparison to other mining companies, what I should have specified was not what they were mining, but how efficiently they are mining it. I used to look at cliffs(NYSE) before. The key metric for commodities has always been, how much did it cost them to dig it out of the ground and sell it, versus how much the market is willing to pay for it. Cliffs was usd1.5 in 2015, a 7 bagger today.

If you notice, this is also how Warren invests in his oil stocks and rewards his executives. The bonuses and compensation plans are based on reducing oil finding costs, not increasing profits and revenues ( which will be high when oil price goes up, and low when the oil price goes down).

I would try to find out something like this for grr and it's high grade ore competitors.

https://www.businessinsider.com.au/iron-ore-breakeven-rates-major-miners-macquarie-bank-2018-1

Some last thoughts.

For me, I'd rather a company that has core competency in iron mining and understands that market industry invest its extra cash in associates doing upstream activities, buy more efficient machines and automation systems, pay their workers better, increase headcount etc rather than venturing into investments they know nothing about ( like property development).

Hi, I think you don't analyse your company enough, to be honest.

As a minority investor, you will never get your "business" for free. The cash balance, cash in hand, assets and etc will not be something that you can be an active part in. As a minority, your only definite part of the company will be is share price increase, dividend yield and share buybacks.

Like your have previously said, other mining companies have bigger share price increase over the longer term. Why is that? Could it be due to rights issue, share buybacks, lower dividends, warrants, bonds etc?

A big part which is often overlooked is the quality of management. I understand it is 42% Chinese owned and managed. Is it shareholder centric? What are the returns on shareholder equity?(ROE) Is it growing it's equity organically in its core business, or is it taking the easy way out ( like many bursa companies) that venture into property development.

And yes you hit the nail in the head, estimating growth rates should be one of the key valuation before you buy the stock.

I like to practise the exercise of Peter lynch in this, which I think is a brilliant guy (read the book one over wall Street). First, SCUTTLEBUTT. Find out from friends or investor relations you know in the mining industry in who the big dog is in Australia. How efficient grr is in remain to that big dog etc. Is the management more capable or just so so.

Then you try to split the company into one of these groups, fast growers, slow growers, stalwarts, turnarounds, cyclicals, asset plays and be clear on the reason you are buying them. Each one has a particular strategy.

Never underestimate the importance of good management.

Hi amateur apprentice.

For me I try to understand the business that I'm in first and foremost. What industry is it in, what makes it special versus it's competitors etc.

I don't really like the mining industry, as it is more a boom bust cycle usually as the business goes up and down in uncontrolled ways that constantly surprise me.

But may I ask you, why did YOU invest in the stock?

Was it chiefly for the 7% dividends?
Its there any specific growth trigger in the near future that is accountable? ( I wouldn't use rough terms like demand and optimism as specific) unless it leads to firm big orders from some major clients.

Any particular reason you chose grr in terms of competitive advantage? I noticed there is a huge cash pile ( which as minority shareholders you will never see) but are they doing anything with it?

I usually benchmark growth rates with comps like vale, Freeport and Rio tinto n terms of how to imagine my growth triggers for mining companies.

The magic word always seems to be integration.

At least I AM an engineer, unlike fake engineer/ex-investment bankers/ retirees who talk too much story and make up so many ideas in their minds about points of views. And worse, any random guy who disagrees with them gets called stupid and idiot and all sorts horrible names.

Your comments are useless and add no value to the conversation. If you don't have anything constructive to add, the JAKS thread is to the top and left.

>>>>>>

con8888 Operation guy talks operation

They can't see things from vantage point of view
02/04/2019 8:01 AM

Luckily stoneco(Nasdaq) and stone master(bursa)huge difference

As an technical manager who does tenders all the time, I would argue that it is a redesign and cost savings project, and in many ways is almost an entirely new project. The costs are different, the goals of the project is different. Even the people doing it are different.

>>>>>>>>
its more complicated than that. ...its not a fresh contract.
01/04/2019 11:22 AM

As a project delivery partner before, the lrt3 ballooning costs to 31 billion for a 40 km track( light railway some more) is not part of their scope, as gkent was just monitoring all the other portions done by others. So when other companies like gamuda etc dropped from their awarded contract, you know for sure it was due to corruption. Yes you are right the value is smaller this time around. But I would argue the fixed price contract now is actually more profitable before, since they no longer have to absorb 24% taxes for others, and award bogus work for minister linked subcontractors. The cost savings from managing and doing the full works for entire project with proper run companies will actually be more valuable in the long run.

>>>>>>>>>>

Also i think much revised amount could be the "undertable for BN" or commission to third parties.

Ok Calvin. You win all also. No need to over promote so much. If you are right you are right. Why scold and cajole others to buy your stocks?

You can't force me to buy your crap.

If your investing works then it works.

Being angry at the world does not help

Bye bye icon8888, I delete my comments and CFO thought process so you win all. Let you win all your beloved JAKS. I'm sure you think it is a wonderful investment. Too bad the CFO doesn't think so.

Calvin bought at 4 cents. But luckily he only bought 4.5 cents, and 100 lot so losses not so much. So no dividend as yet.

This is called 自己讲自己爽. All looking for confirmation bias, not trying to learn something new every day.

You mean only investors in JAKS can comment in this thread? Okay, my apologies, I will delete all my queries.

>>>>>

i3Value Malaysian favourite past time - argue for sake of arguing.

Nothing also can find something to argue.

If you invest in Jaks, fair you make comment here. If you not invested in Jaks and have no intention to invest in Jaks, what you doing here?
01/04/2019 1:21 PM

Well, if they invited my boss for redesign tender negotiations instead of a GLC bumi company third party, they are in the right track.

Hi Tracy92,
I am under obligation(to my self) to inform you that you will earn rm3500 or 3% dividend of your purchase price of 1.17. but also note usually after ex dividend, the stock price will usually also drop by 3.5 cents in the short term after dividend ex-date.

>>>>>>
osted by tracy92 > Apr 1, 2019 11:14 AM | Report Abuse

Hi Philip, thanks for ur recommendation. I bot 100,000 units @ 1.17.

Fresh contract or not, gamuda gave up their "revised" contract because they know they can't make money off of it.

The fact that gkent signed off on the revised lower contract is because it is now a redesign and fixed price contract.

Only those who did not have to pay much under the table money will dare to take up this contract.

Hi Calvin, my bad bet into Gkent is paying me 3.5 cents dividend on my cost purchase of 1.12 next week. That 3% dividend.

My bad bet into PCHEM at 8.20 is paying me 18 cents dividend last week. That is 2.2% dividend.

All those are paid via earnings and profits from existing business.

Yahoo. Especially since I am reinvesting my profits into more shares.

How much is talamt paying you to wait? Buying it at 8 cents(or 4.5 cents, whatever) and holding until today, how much dividend are you getting? How much profit are you enjoying from your stocks?

I don't understand that remark. I do understand I'm getting 6% dividend per annum in existing business, plus guaranteed profit from LRT3 11.8 billion contract incoming.

Is talamt paying you dividend over your 3 years since you bought it at 8 cents?

>>>>>>>
Posted by calvintaneng > Apr 1, 2019 8:16 AM | Report Abuse

why buy gkent when

COST IS HIGH NOW WITH PETROL RISING?

Wow, one day stop heavy promotion on a stock also cannot? Calvin tan I really need to know, what is your angle? Even using religion and Christianity as a tool for you to sell stocks? Please don't mix those 2 together, it is really humiliating, like Jesus going into his Father's house and finding all the merchants buying and selling idols, livestock's for sacrifice and gambling.

Jesus wept.

Gkent also does not have a history of ever losing money in the last 15 years. Shockingly, gkent has enough projects and growing business that they do not need to venture into property development, which is going to cause a long term recession in Malaysia for many property developers in the housing glut( not really glut, but so expensive locals can't even qualify for loans anymore).

Did I mention Gkent has a history of having net assets of CASH? A liquid and stable currency? It has 200 million more cash than naim which it deploys carefully.

Naim is 400 million in debt, and most of its "assets" are in land held for development (which is worthless unless developed) and interests in associates (naim land sb etc 300 million).

Its funny you should name NAIM. I know them well. They are based in Sarawak, a Sarawak politically linked company, building property that local sarawakians can't afford to buy. Their assets are pieces of jungles that were raped of timber, and land that has a 70 year expiry date. Yes, did you know that houses in Sarawak have a 70 year lease as compared to freehold property in Peninsular? Most kids who cant qualify for housing loan won't even know this. Very sad.

Worse of all, NAIM still owes me money (technically, my boss) for projects completed and handed over and sold. 2 years impaired, lawsuit and delayed. They used their "associate" company to award, which then turned into a 2 dollar company, that lawsuits will not have an effect on.

2 metrics to compare a business is just plain silly.


>>>>>>
gkent history of EPS and NTA not as great as Naim.

So now LGE award lrt3 contract to gkent revision at 11.8 billion last month feb 2019 is also because is LGE golf buddy? Its an open contract, only the companies doing proper job get the works.

If not, why did gamuda give up the contract tender after price revision?
>>>>>>
Gkent awarded LRT3 previously bec Najib golf buddy?

I never said I hate econpile, I just said I hate property developers, which is 50+% of econpile customer base. The possibility of property developer delaying and stop payments will become higher as time goes on. Government is more reliable, but with LGE at the helm, the possibility of mega projects under new government compared to old administration will be much lower, for the short to mid term.

Why? Just because it is going up?

As a subcontractor, some costs cannot be "managed". I believe in the future there will be more and more lawsuits and payment delays for econpile property developers ( and government projects).

If I had to choose a company, I would rather choose a good developer/maincon over a good subcontractor.

They always seem to get the shaft.

Notice how I always stick to QL, WEIDA and TOPGLOVE. Best paymasters in the market. I have yet to see a property development project where my boss is not forced to contra a unit or 2, or 10.

My advice if you really want to invest in construction line? Try to stick to companies which have more business units in top of their core competency, like trading (gkent water meter and wtp operation and management contract), manufacturing ( scientex film wrap business and property development, operations and management ( cypark with is environment engineering... And landscaping).

Not that I am shamelessly promoting those stocks, but I just hate property developers with a vengeance.

I do not see a good end to property developers in the short to medium term.

As I have personal experience in pilecaps and micropiles, especially an expert in using my trusty hitachi excavator to hammer those piles down, I know a thing a two about piling, which is why I don't really see anything special about econpile which cannot be replaced by China contractors doing projects these days, other than the fact that econpile does have a very good management team.

Having said that, piling work usually gets paid first, as it is the first portion to be claimed in your s&p agreement. I pity those who are roofing contractors and finishing work painters. Those always seem to go bankrupt these days.

Looking at note B9 for this quarter
31.12.2018 30.06.18

Neither past due nor impaired 200,446 299,923
1 to 60 days past due not impaired. 125,936 36,607
61 to 120 days past due not impaired 51,224 39,148
More than 121 days past due not impaired 19,638 42,709
196,798 118,464
Impaired 17,663. 2,806

I would monitor closely the aging for econpile, especially for its property development clients.ever year there is less and less individuals qualifying for a bank loan to buy property.

For me, being in the construction line, I always look at the business risk and the payment capability of clients first and foremost, not how much profit I will earn.

In essence, when I judge for projects to pick up, as technical manager I always reserve the right to veto any project "awarded" by a client who does not have cash or bank facility to pay.

These days most of these seem to be developers. As you will know, public Bank and Hong Leong are famous for not giving out bridging loans to developers.

The reason is because Malaysian developers operate under a sell then build concept, unlike Australia and overseas where the system is more a build then sell method.

This allows them to over leverage and sell projects using other people's money, which in this case includes econpile.

You see, being in the construction line in Malaysia, you don't actually get any down payment to start work. Its always a progressive claim system. Meaning you do first, when complete 20% then claim, so on and so forth.

Even for government projects it is the same thing.

Therefore using business sense, the key criteria for valuing econpile is not in its earnings and profits and order book. But in its receivables, and impairments of those receivables.

The faster you complete a project, the faster you can claim and move on to the next job. As most developers no longer have much finances, everything becomes slower, delayed and cancelled.

If your piling equipment becomes idle, you can lose money very fast.

What do you think is the future of the property development market in Malaysia, especially for high rise buildings?

Hi jackfruit, I'm not a stock analyst, I'm merely a amateur stock picker who reads a lot, am rational in my investments in not being much affected by highs and lows of the market, and treat investing as being part of a business, instead of prices on a stock ticker tape that goes up and down every day.

Picked up additional 29,500 shares of PCHEM @9.05 on march 26th t+3 based on dividends yield of 18 cents for my shares of 1,495,200 shares. The balance dividend seafood dinner in Penang!

But to be perfectly honest the 90's was really the go go years when I made so much money and had so much confidence in my "trading" skills that borrowing 200k from family and friends to open up margin accounts, and getting 20-30% returns weekly for months, I fooled myself into thinking I knew how to stock pick.

Once bitten forever dead I guess.

I feel very sad, when I illuminated the same thing about quality of loans between b40 lenders and rich Chinese people lenders, choivo say I am a fool. When ex-banker say the same things, choivo feels illuminated.

Are ex-bankers and accountants traditionally better investors and analysts than amateur old engineers?

Maybe when I become an ex-engineer I will be treated better.

>>>>>>>

RCECAP is still a pretty good one for me, but he definitely illuminated a few things for me to see.

Nice one Freddie, you probably went around in 2017 either...

Calvin tan he only promote but he don't buy how to bleed leh? He only know chun chun call mah, not chun chun buy.

Sure la calvin always the smartest one. What's 100% chun chun call. Ok track your words here, buy at 55 cents. Then sell at 65 cents right? Let's see how long we need to wait to get your trading results out.

Now follow your first I buy 1 lot at 51.5 cents to monitor how accurate your chun chun call is.

Wokeh! Good luck my young friend, and may sunshine always be with you!

At least you also have 2 cent dividend this quarter to sit and wait and monitor.

And more importantly, if you know stoneraider optimism of rm3 in 3 years and 3 months is convoluted, then I think you will be ok long term.

I think choivo just described his rich dad/poor dad scenario. When they pressed kiyosaki on who his "rich" dad was, knowing that the story didn't really fit and no one existed in Hawaii that had the vast ownership of properties he was alluding to, kiyosaki said later in life that his rich dad was more a metaphor on how to invest properly, rather than a real person as such.

That "rich dad" title helped him sell a lot of books and get a lot of new clients.

#truestory

Fyi any Malaysian who tells you they bought Netflix early is most likely fake. The only real documented person I know who bought it early was my daughter's lecturer in California. He bought it at usd8 in 2012. Unfortunately, he also sold out at usd36, which gives you an idea of how being able to pick and hold good stocks and write good articles with a PhD degree in economics is not always correlated.

Nonetheless, good well written article! Kudos!

Buy when everyone is buying, sell when everyone is selling?

I don't think you will ever get a good deal like that, nor make big money.

Its like the selling durians at the height of durian season when prices are lowest and market is flooded. Or buying your durians at the highest price during the beginning of the season.

You either sell too early, buy too late, sell too late or buy the wrong stock.

I really don't think trends are anyone's friend, not even in the stock market.

If after the latest QR results still do to cure you of your beliefss and hubris, then I think nothing will.

Good luck and I hope your Sapnrg does a huge turnaround and you do well. Because in the end no one is angry at you or wishes you ill will. This is just an online forum to share knowledge and investing results. No one knows each other here and I'm sure if we meet each other in real life as Malaysians we will treat each other with the utmost respect and friendship.

I just hope that you will realize sometimes even if we talk bad about Sapnrg it is not always to bring it down so we can buy it at cheaper price. Sometimes it can also be as a friendly warning based on long years of results.

Not everyone is a shark. Not everyone is a bilis.

I also reinvested my dividends and my capital into my stocks, every quarter for 10 years, so I know what you think you are doing.

You are just doing it with the wrong stocks.

And if you think I'm new "here",

I invested in ql in 2009,
Topglove in 2010,
Pbb in 2012
Yinson in 2013,

And have not "cut loss" or sold a share since ( until recently swap from pbb to PCHEM).

I doubt your trading has given you joy in your 10 years of "investing", so maybe some advice from an amateur uncle who invested since the 90s will help you out.

I was once like you, but luckily I learned.

https://klse.i3investor.com/m/blog/phillipinvesting/188844.jsp

https://klse.i3investor.com/m/blog/phillipinvesting/197011.jsp

Hopefully, I can get you to stop wasting your time and go into real investing.

No need to get used to anything, I avoid sapnrg like the plague. Good luck with your averaging, how you do well.

So how do you expect people to believe you when you wake every morning and try to hard sell every day?

Be honest, how much did you average down to?

Maybe you should stop picking stocks, if you average out your "dojo trading" results the guy who puts in money in fixed deposit at 4.25% probably earned more than you last 2 years...

Sure, and at every juncture your predictions were wrong.

DON'T KNOW HOW MANY TIMES YOU WERE WRONG AND STILL MANIA? QUESTION IS... WHY?
ANSWER. TRAPPED.

Apr 16, 2018 8:49 AM | Report Abuse
Support 0.70, short term target sell 0.78, next level 0.78 if breaks, next target 0.88. If got profit taking, buy in 0.70

May 12, 2018 7:24 PM | Report Abuse
Sapnrg RM10 is not a dream, it is reality. This is golden 5 years...

May 8, 2018 5:23 PM | Report Abuse
Follow my 50% 50% rule, safe and sure earn money...don't buy contra margin...sharks cannot push lower if retail investors don't buy contras margin. See you at 80 cents

May 7, 2018 10:09 AM | Report Abuse
60 cents here I come....push harder!

May 28, 2018 8:45 PM | Report Abuse
Nobody is losing any money as long as we don't sell and cut loss here. Eventually Sapnrg will reach RM1.50 no doubt. Just take this as investment into a house of Sapnrg. Don't buy contras don't buy margin. We will be rewarded. 40,50,60 cents no problem, just buy and keep as investment

Mar 6, 2018 5:02 PM | Report Abuse
Tomorrow time to enter. Buy as much as you can. Today's crash is not due to short selling. It is due to panic selling. Many panic selling seen by retail investors.

Mar 8, 2018 3:37 PM | Report Abuse
Yes, super cheap, just buy

Mar 11, 2018 12:51 PM | Report Abuse
My estimation: RM1.2billion revenue
RM1billion operating expenditure
RM200million interest expenses
? Foreign exchange gains/loss
? Impairment RM1billion max
NTA RM1.90
Cash position RM1.6-1.8 billion
---> share price estimation of 50% NTA=95 cents.
This should be the real report.

Then we wait for updates on the USD5billion tender plus Pegaga project awards (Sapnrg or MMHE???)

With the above news, it can go up to RM1.40-1.50 in less than 1 year.

Mar 15, 2018 12:10 PM | Report Abuse
Bottom already. Must buy.

Mar 30, 2018 5:57 PM | Report Abuse
Worst of Sapnrg is over. This year we expect revenue to double up with earning at least RM200million every quarter, pending more projects and revenue recognitions. In 12months target price is RM2

Stock: [SAPNRG]: SAPURA ENERGY BHD
Jan 18, 2018 7:12 PM | Report Abuse
Hi, I am new here. Just got to know Vincent Tan billionaire is also playing this counter now.

Feb 14, 2018 12:39 PM | Report Abuse
Sailang all buy 67 cents should be a good choice.

Feb 14, 2018 5:13 PM | Report Abuse
0.67 sailang 0.70 sell. Earn 4.5% in 4 hours. Not bad.

Feb 23, 2018 5:48 PM | Report Abuse
Look like big funds are entering now.

TIME TO CATCH FALLING KNIFE......

I think I better keep quiet, it's like telling someone who has cancer he should stop smoking and live a healthier life, they won't listen until it's too late.

My apologies spinning lotus, I did not know you started buying bumi Armada from 60 cents with you technical doji skills and watch it drop until 19 cents today.

Jun 9, 2017 11:53 AM | Report Abuse
0.70 here it comes. Sell sell sell.

Jun 15, 2017 2:34 PM | Report Abuse
70 cents coming! Sell and exit before it is too late

Jul 23, 2017 5:04 PM | Report Abuse
Must buy 0.70 cents. Golden chance to buy for short term profit.

Stock: [ARMADA]: BUMI ARMADA BHD

Feb 27, 2018 5:50 PM | Report Abuse
I buy now, to sell at 95 cents

After cut loss in bumi Armada move to sapura?
Your mania in sapura also started only since last year, oh no!

Dear stockraider:

I mean there is such a thing as investment foresight, but think about it, if you want to put words into numbers, jumping over a 33 story + goes like this:

For sapnrg, during it's 2014-2015 peak, how many shares outstanding?
Today:

After the 5:3 rights issue dilution you have 16 billion outstanding shares.

Then you have 1 billion of warrants that can convert at 42 cents which expire in 2026.

Then you have another 2.4 billion preferred shares that pays 5% that is convertible.

You literally have around 20 billion shares to dilute with. Sapnrg would have to make more money than PCHEM to mean anything in the future. And I expect more rights issues and warrants and asset selling to come if they want to be debt positive and grow properly.

Even when the oil price per barrel was 100 USD+ sapnrg never earned more than 1+ billion in profit.

In 3 years time, even if you best wet dream is true, and sape makes 5 billion in EARNINGS ( not revenue) every year, they still have barely made a dent in the crazy dilution of sape.

How much higher do you have to jump?

My advice stockraider, listen to Uncle Philip, make some real long term money. Buy GKent, got 6% dividend every year, and if you want wet dream this 630 million dollar company can get ecrl JV (10% of 50 billion project is 5 billion profit), lrt3( 10% of 50%jv of 11.8 billion contract is 630 million profit), mrt2 (10% of 1 billion is 100 million profit), got 140 million water meter business (20 million profit yearly and growing), then got water treatment plant project internationally and hospital projects (500m) some more. And now become pakatan harapan crony for LGE(biggest pH government contract in it's short history).

Can sleep well at night, 60 million borrowing vs 260 million cash in the bank, 7 cents dividend even in the worst year of government change policy.

Why hold on to sape? Sell that crap and buy gkent on Monday.

You will still be in time for 3.5 cents dividend. Yes that is 3% dividend yield if you buy it Monday.

And best is it is a sustainable yield (46% of profits).

Why Hope when you can have Reality?

I mean there is such a thing as investment foresight, but think about it, if you want to put words into numbers, jumping over a 33 story + goes like this:

For sapnrg, during it's 2014-2015 peak, how many shares outstanding?
Today:

After the 5:3 rights issue dilution you have 16 billion outstanding shares.

Then you have 1 billion of warrants that can convert at 42 cents which expire in 2026.

Then you have another 2.4 billion preferred shares that pays 5% that is convertible.

You literally have around 20 billion shares to dilute with. Sapnrg would have to make more money than PCHEM to mean anything in the future. And I expect more rights issues to come if they want to be debt positive.

Even when the oil price per barrel was 100 USD+ sapnrg never earned more than 1+ billion in profit.

In 3 years time, even if you best wet dream is true, and sape makes 5 billion in earnings every year, they still have barely made a dent in the crazy dilution of sape.

How much higher do you have to jump?

My advice stockraider, listen to Uncle Philip, make some real long term money. Buy GKent, got 6% dividend every year, and if you want wet dream this 630 million dollar company can get ecrl JV (10% of 50 billion project is 5 billion profit), lrt3( 10% of 50%jv of 11.8 billion contract is 630 million profit), mrt2 (10% of 1 billion is 100 million profit), got 140 million water meter business (20 million profit yearly and growing), then got water treatment plant project internationally and hospital projects (500m) some more. And now become pakatan harapan crony for LGE.

Can sleep well at night, 60 million borrowing vs 260 million cash in the bank, 7 cents dividend even in the worst year of government change policy.

Why hold on to sape? Sell that crap and buy gkent on Monday.

You will still be in time for 3.5 cents dividend. Yes that is 3% dividend yield if you buy it Monday.

And best is it is a sustainable yield (46% of profits).