Somehow this is quite sad to me. I would assume that Charlie munger was very correct.

"Mankind invented a system to cope with the fact that we are so intrinsically lousy at manipulating numbers. It's called the graph."

The full list is here, and the results are interesting.

Wealth = time*( effort - competition)*luck

Its your choice, be in a country where everyone is blind and the man with one eye can become king.

Or be in a country where everyone hyper competitive and you can live ok, but the top echelons are forever beyond your grasp.

Good luck.

My personal advice? Stick to somewhere you can build long term connections, and respect you instead of look down on you.

Those who have been overseas will know what I mean.

Here in Malaysia you can rule behind the scenes. Elsewhere you will never get a seat at the table.
>>>>>>>>>

https://www.forbes.com/malaysia-billionaires/list/#tab:overall

Instead of blaming your fate, I invite you to embrace adversity.

Sure, there are difficulties in every situation. Every country has its proud and cons.

But have you ever wondered why is it that the bottom 23% of the population just happens to be the top 10 richest Malaysians? I count the latest list at 9 Chinese and 1 Indian.

And to be honest it is to OUR advantage that the government continue to spoon feed certain groups to their own detriment. By giving them all those " benefits" which in my opinion in the long run mean NOTHING, they have been bred to be lazy, unmotivated and uncompetitive.

You haven't started working yet in the real world and see what is going on.

I am a technical manager for MNC and it is almost exclusively mad up of Chinese and Indians with a few exceptional Malays and the token figure head.

Who gets paid more? Who gets the most opportunities in the long run?

In my humble opinion Malaysia is like no other. No where else will you find the minority immigrant control all the high positions and own all the profitable companies. Imagine if I told you in Britain or Japan out USA the top 1% is all Chinese, would you think it possible?

Malaysia is definitely not for the weak or mediocre. But for the hardworking and exceptional? They know the real story. Malaysia is their oyster and stepping stone into the future.

Long may the social contract reign.

>>>>>>>>

https://www.forbes.com/sites/forbespr/2019/03/13/wealth-of-tycoons-on-2019-forbes-malaysia-rich-list-on-a-downtrend/#411c7ee12a75

Record this first before cabin delete this shit.

>>>>

Posted by calvintaneng > May 22, 2019 6:03 PM | Report Abuse

Calvin bought velesto at 27.5 sen
Tomorrow?

Those who panic please throw
Those who steady hold firm
Those who are brave just buy slowly
NO need to hurry buying
Just buy if gap down

Keep some bullets

If crash more then add more

Invest wisely

This is how Calvin will buy Velesto

25 sen buy 20 lots
24 sen buy 30 lots
23 sen buy 40 lots
22 sen buy 50 lots
21 sen buy 60 lots
20 sen buy 70 lots
19 sen buy 100 lots
18 sen buy 200 lots
17 sen buy 300 lots
16 sen buy 400 lots
15 sen buy 1000 lots
10 sen Calvin sell one house and Wallop kaw kaw

1 sen?

Calvin will sell everything and launch a take over of Velesto

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Boy_Who_Harnessed_the_Wind

>>>>>

You should watch this movie and read the book. It is on Netflix. If you really want to help the nation, stay and make it a better place. If you decide to leave, know that many people have spent time, effort and money to nurture you, take care of you and educate you.

It is ungrateful to say this is a lousy country when you have education, free and open internet, a changing government, a wealthy nation with ample food on the table and no unrest, natural disasters and wars.

And worse, you are a young man complaining about things which you have barely the opportunity to fully experience life.

Be glad you were not born in Africa.

My daughter studies in the US, then is planning to work in either HK or SG. But now she changes her mind, after doing internship, she realizes home is where the heart is.

She is coming back.

Grass is always greener on the other side. Every place has its problems. In the US? no free medical, everything need to pay. No green card? they treat you like trash whether or not you are citizen, just by skin color alone.

Talents are valued and skills appreciated everywhere. The idea that a better life can be found elsewhere is flawed, simply because holiday there and working there is totally different things.

Where do you want to grow your future anyway? maybe I can help give you an introduction.

I strongly believe its not where you go that is important. It is what you do with your opportunities that make the difference.

I live in the jungles of sabah, the islands of sipadan, the mountains of kinabalu. I wouldn't trade it any other way. Meanwhile money can be found anywhere.

>>>>>>

Posted by Heavenly PUNTER Research IB > May 21, 2019 11:42 AM | Report Abuse
There's no future here, stop being blinded by your own ignorance. And stop spreading your ignorance. I strongly urge everyone to study hard and move to places where your talents are being valued, your skills being appreciated, it won't be easy. But life is never about staying in your comfort zone. Take the leap and deal with the difficulties initially, you'll be grateful for what you did 10 years from now. At the very least, your children and grandchildren will be grateful for your actions. Think long term, you have 30-40 of good years ahead. Don't waste your potential here.

It doesn't really matter where you go. There are millionaires here just as much as billionaires. Everywhere can make money, if that is your goal. Don't think that grass is always greener on the other side. If you go elsewhere with higher pay, but much higher expenses and much more stress, I don't think it is worth it.

Most important thing in life is not money, it is Time. Happiness, and Family. None of which requires much money.

Trust me on this, the older you get, the more the little things in life become important.

>>>>>>

Posted by Heavenly PUNTER Research IB > May 20, 2019 11:38 PM | Report Abuse

But can they pay well or not? That's the problem... Overseas, same qualification, maybe more stressful but earn x2 or x3 the amount here... Why not leh? What's work other than a means to earn income? If elsewhere pays me higher, why not ?

If I can give an advice to any young man it is this.

Once you finish high school, quickly get your degree or diploma or whatever. Spend the minimum amount of time on it. Get it cheap.

The fact is, very few know what it is they want to do in life. I never did. Go and do something broad like engineering or business or whatever. The key thing is to not be in debt. Don't buy a new car, in fact get a motorcycle or a third hand cheap car.

When you graduate you will be 21, the younger the better. Spend the rest of your life learning. 4 years in university. 50 years after that.

Live frugally, just begin the discipline of saving money first, then spending whatever is left every month. Compounding works.
It
Be focused. Read as much useful information as you can. Delete Facebook and Instagram and Twitter. It does nothing for you. Get a subscription for the edge, time, newspapers. Make it a habit to read. If you can read 8 hours a day, you are getting somewhere.

Spend as much money as you can on learning. In fact, think of it as a permanent long term investment. Learning takes many forms.

Work as an intern. If possible, for free. If not possible, just ask for food and fuel. A 1 year no salary free internship working for me department in my company ( or even sslee) I can guarantee you will learn and apply more than 4 years in university.

The more you learn and absorb, the more confident you will be. People will pay money for people who know their shit. A big part of that will come from confidence.

Make mistakes when you are young. But more important, learn from them. Find out how to do better. Don't repeat the same mistake twice. Most people I meet keep doing the same mistakes in their lives, and blame everyone and everything else.

Write this on your wall. Repeat every day.

Apply, Absorb, Improve, Repeat.

Apply is to just go ahead and do it.
Absorb is to meditate and understand what you are doing wrong.
Improve yourself, the actions & reactions. Find a better way to do it.
Repeat the process with everything you do in life. Again & again. Never stop improving.

Apply. Absorb. Improve. Repeat.

You sad sad man. Are you sure you know how to invest? Or are you one of those short term traders running around recommending everything, but doesn't know how to do long term investing? When I say I have held QL since 2009, I know for a fact it is one of the most stable companies in bursa, with high margin of safety, and little chance of a share price collapse ( even at pe50.)

But can't blame you, with a history of promoting protasco, perisai, talamt, karambunai, asianpac and many many more, you don't know anything better.

I am sure of one thing, you don't make much money from stock market.

Your main source of income would probably be from sgd/MYR currency drop, buying property in JB when it was cheap, and not having any wife and kids that you need to spend money on.

Yeah and probably cheating innocent people of their money and hustling then to buy stocks where you pump and dump them. The long line of aggrieved investors follow you wherever you go. Do you know why they are upset with you?

If everyone who knows you long enough knows you are a fraud and fake, then what more needs to be said?

Enough. Fake investors will be fakes.

Have a good wesak day. I have decided you are a waste of my time. And you will never ever be a good investor.( Your mindset is too rigid and unyielding. You probably never apply what you read, but find the text to fit your bias.) Good luck.


FYI my 10 year returns from QL has eclipsed all your stock recommendations ever. And I compound my returns by reinvesting in a small amount of companies. I have very few good ideas, but my 6 companies have never made a loss yet. That is rule 1.

I'm in a way agree with you both. I was a Universiti Malaya graduate, with good results and all. And I do believe that a paper qualification will open many doors.

But the real secret is what you do next. And that is the future.

I know many UM friends, Indians Malays and Chinese, they get good results, but after graduate and start working they decided to stop learning and motivating and improving themselves, content with an ok and easy life.

I was the total opposite. After making some bad mistakes, it became my motivation and pressure to push myself to get out of debt and improve my life.

Being poor can be a very strong motivation. In fact it may sound cruel, but being a hard core poor can build the strongest foundation for a mental strong and motivated person.

There are many examples in life. With the age of the internet, quality education can be had for almost free. I have learned countless things over YouTube, instructables, howstuffworks, Wikipedia that before would have cost me tens of thousands to learn. I have downloaded countless pdfs( and bought hard copies of the really good books), and read it all. I have a library of 10,000 books on my Kindle.

In todays world, it is no longer important what to learn. It is far more important to learn how to read faster, absorb deeper, remember and retain, discard unnecessary information, improve on existing mental models, learn how to motivate oneself.

This is the age of the autodidact.

Herbert says otherwise.

Your idea of margin of safety is very very flawed. Like 1950's flawed.

I prefer Charlie munger, Seth klarman, Warren buffet, Peter Lynch concept of margin of safety.

There has to be a context to every story.

Amazon was picked up by brk because of a margin of safety, where there monopolistic nature of first movers provide a rock solid fortress of growth into the future.

Seth klarman buys eBay even though the price asked was 6x book value ( something none of your stocks was ever considered), because you only buy cheap stocks of horrible businesses selling below book value. Every. Single. Time.

As for Peter Lynch, he does the exact opposite of what you always espouse: I repeat his words here.

"If I could avoid a single stock, it would be the hottest stock in the hottest industry, the one that gets the most favorable publicity, the one that every investor hears about in the car pool or on the commuter train—and succumbing to the social pressure, often buys.”

This is exactly you and your o&g pump and dumps, stocks that yoyo up and down so often that when it stops, you realize it never went anywhere.

Please stop repeating other sifu words as if they were your own, because like your Christianity, you never practice what you preach.

A broken clock gets it right twice a day.

Someone who promotes 50 stocks ( but buys nothing) and a new one every week, but doesn't say when he bought, how much he bought and when he sells, will always have a few stocks he gets right so he can promote and fool more clients.

Shame on you. At least keep a portfolio of your trades, so we know how you really perform over time ( including buying and selling).

Hi SSLee, I am amazed that you are amazed. I would have thought it is basic economics. and it is not an argument, merely a discussion and sharing of pertinent information/concepts.

In essence sarifahselinder and KCchongz is very much correct.

Every economic activity has a cost.

When you IPO a company, you have a listing costs (1+% or more to the bank, underwriters can buy shares cheaper than retailers etc)

When you give out dividends there is a cost (transactional costs, processing costs etc).

Private placements usually have a certain discount to entice investors.

Imagine you are the CEO of INSAS for example (with no strings or conflicts of interest in play, only working for the benefit of the investors).

When you look at maximizing shareholder value, multiple issues come into play.

A) Do I sell inari shares to buyback more shares of insas (which is very very undervalued).
B) Do I sell inari shares to give out a dividend to insas investors (to improve confidence).
C) Do I sell insas shares via private placement/convertible bonds/ICULS and use it to buy more inari (if the growth prospect of inari subsidiary is much bigger long term than insas).
D) Do I keep collecting inari dividend and use it on adding position in loss making subsidiaries? (vigtech, vigcash, melium, tribecar, omesti berhad, dgsb)

It is the same here between dividend payout, share buyback, etc.

For me, I prefer QL with low dividend payouts and spend more money on growing the business. Delayed gratification.

I prefer BRK with zero dividend payouts and spend money in building the business. Very delayed gratification.

for companies like maybank and public bank, I prefer less money lending out on taking risks, buying huge unnecessary assets, and giving out bigger dividends (its not like they have capability to manage a maybank in Taiwan, japan or korea anyway). I can invest better than maybank because I have different priorities, cost structures, risk appetites. PCHEM will never open a KFC franchise for example, whereas I could (with my dividends for example as KCChongz has said)

For coca cola, visa, mastercard etc, dividends make perfect sense.

For amazon, take my money and grow the business, build that moat, and only later give me a dividend when its less efficient to throw money to grow anymore.

For INSAS? Yes, if me I would prefer them stop trying difficult things like starting new fintech companies, new biotech companies, new car rental companies. Sell it all off. concentrate on growing inari shareholdings, or growing m&a business, or investing in companies with a competitive advantage. There is already a grab/uber monstrocity, why try to compete with tribecar? Why not just put money into

But usually for me these are my priorities:

1) business expansion, increase revenue and earnings
2) reduce debt, increase book value
3) share buyback, if book value is below intrinsic value
4) dividends, if the first 3 returns are below my dividend yield.

in that order.

buying pharma/biotech companies are like buying jackpot. most companies unless they are big caps with existing patents are like Indiana jones running through the jungle trying to find the hidden treasure.

They have to jump through dangerous rivers (R&D), boulder traps and spikes (animal testing) and many more traps. Even when they get close, there is always the big bad Nazi who tries to frighten and scare you away (FDA approval), which can take many many years to go through the multiple stages. Most times, it doesn't pan out (Sean connery spent his entire life searching for the holy grail).

Sometimes you hit the jackpot. But even then, gaining the prize doesn't mean you will succeed, as patents have a shelf life before the generics can be introduced into the market. Even companies with a patented drug, if managed badly will still not succeed.

My advice, instead of buying the companies which is burning through cash looking for the answer, why not invest in the companies with a proven answer, well managed with a clear competitive advantage in play.

The risk of losing money then is far lower than the profit making possibilities.

Rule 1: never lose money ( not literally, but conceptually. If you take unnecessary risks, you will lose unnecessary money. compare your 5 year history of those companies versus these:

Pfizer May 20 2014 - USD 29.50, May 20 2019 - USD 41.50, 3.5% dividend
Johnson & Johnson May 20 2014 from 101 to 138.6 today, 2.74% div,
Merck, 20/5/2014 from 56.8 to 76.6, 2.74% div,
Abbvie, 20/5/2014 from 54 to 79, div 5%
Novartis

These companies, if you are new to biotech or pharmas, you could just close your eyes, just buy and hold and average every quarter with your salary over the years and you would not need to worry on catastrophic loss of value.

I have lost count of how many biotech pharma & companies went bankrupt through the years searching for holy grails, while the big pharma continued to grow its profits and dividends year after year after year.

I am sure one of the companies you are following will hit paydirt and make it big, but if you can't make a reasonable analysis which company will do well 5-10 years from now, it would not be a good idea to invest at all in biotech companies.

Putting this Chun Chun call here, do I can bring it up whenever Calvin says he can get 100% returns. Calvin says can foresee Chun Chun rm1.50 this year. And he bought more at 80-90 cents. Now price has dropped to 70 cents. Let's see how much Calvin can bullshit onwards.

>>>>>>

calvintaneng JY2019

Penergy was awarded OGSE phase one among 5 oil entities

In OGSE phase 2 Penergy was again awarded Top Side job which commands the highest revenue. Among 12 OGSE only Penergy was chosen and both dayang and carimin were dropped

Another one included in Phase 2 OGSE was Uzma.

For now I think Penergy is ovrsold

One quarter good result Mr Market chased Penergy into Limit up.

And one quarter poor result Mr Market sold it Limit down

Mr Market is so fickle minded

So don't follow Mr Market

Follow Value Investing

Look forward to August 2019 result of Penergy to see improvement again

For now is not the time to sell but to buy Penergy on weakness

Calvin is happy to have bought today

So happy now.
10/05/2019 5:25 PM

Your implied it that way. I may have received the info wrongly then. Apologies. I believe a company should only give out a dividend if it is under to use the money more efficiently than the shareholders. If the interest rates are high, using capital on debt reduction is far better than dividends. If the share price is far far lower than book value or peer value, buybacks are worth much more than dividends.

The main takeaway is that everything must have a context for the action. Why must a private placement be needed? Why not explain clearly to shareholders and do a rights issue? Why give out a dividend if you need to raise cash later via pp with extra 10% discount to raise money?

>>>>>


Did I say if a company doesn't give dividend, it is a negative signal?

What is wrong with receiving dividend every year from investing in a stock?

I see. I own 2 shares of class A brk. It has never given me a dividend. Does that mean it is a negative signal, the management is unwilling to share the profits of the company? I hope not.
>>>>>

Dividend is never a bad thing in investing. It is a testimonial that the company is doing well, that the management is willing to share the profits of the company, a positive signal. Dividend is hard cash which investors can use it as they like; to buy more shares of the company, or other more promising companies, or spend it to enjoy their fruits.

from the management own words: decide what you will.

BUSINESS PROSPECTS

The Board foresees a challenging period for the Group, taking into account the competitive market landscape and has initiated active tender participation for domestic infrastructure projects. Barring unforeseen circumstances, the Group expects to remain profitable in the current financial year.

Construction Division The highly competitive environment of the construction industry, coupled with the fast escalating material prices and labor costs has further deteriorated our overall margins for the existing on-going projects. Nevertheless, the Division will continue to implement continuous cost management measures to safeguard its margin. The current outstanding order book of RM1.30 billion shall provide stable income visibility going forward. (tender renegotiation is never good for anybody)

Property Division The overall weakness in the property market has affected sales and accordingly impacted the performance of our Property Division. The Division has introduced more aggressive marketing efforts to promote sales of its existing on-going and completed projects. With unbilled sales of RM93.10 million and planned new launches, the Property Division is expected to deliver positive performance in this financial year. (many unsold properties but still launching more, good for "assets and bookbuilding", bad for long term earnings)

Utility Division Earnings from the existing four water concession plants will remain stable. (no future growth plans)

I abhor any companies that do private placements when share price is low and market is not doing so well. Companies which can't operate on its own velocity I try to avoid usually, unless they have a particularly strong competitive advantage. I also usually don't invest in property developers as these days there is a huge glut in the market, and property development take a longer gestation time (2-4 years), meaning by the next few years, there will be even more unsold properties in Malaysia that people cannot afford to buy. This does not bode well for companies that do property development. If there was a barrier to be a developer I would consider (build before sell, minimum financial capacity, quota etc). However in Malaysia, it appears any company with a little money diversifies into property development. Not a good sign.
Of course for Gadang, property development is 25% of its business, with more on construction and infrastructure works. But I find it exceedingly difficult to project profits and business growth 5-10 years from now for gadang.
I just don't find any form of moat or competitive advantage compared to other players like mudajaya, gamuda, etc etc. I don't know who will do well in the future, therefore I put it in the too hard pile.

this is the difference between calvin and OTB. some demand respect, others gain it by example. how to trust someone who talks a lot, gives 50 stock picks, no portfolio, no quality returns in i3 over a long period of time, and whose investment strategy seems based more on a book written in 1968 than whose investment philosophy has been refined over a long period of actual investing of REAL money.

At least for OTB, you know when he promotes, it is never 50 stocks at a go, and he gives the price to buy and price to sell. So you can clearly see his results and his portfolio returns.

Calvin tan: what is your portfolio?

>>>>>>>

Posted by calvintaneng > May 19, 2019 3:10 PM | Report Abuse
Posted by 3iii > May 19, 2019 3:05 PM | Report Abuse

Jerry Tze Ming,

Kindly keep us updated. Will check up with you again in 5 years time from today.

YOU BETTER WATCH OUT YOURSELF!!

AFTER YOU DESTROYED INVESTLAH YOU WILL ALSO FOSSILIZE IN 5 YEARS LATER

LOL!!

I am interested to know which investments in small caps have WB bought? Hopefully you can enlighten me. In either case, there is no harm buying smaller cap stocks, but it must be done within context. If you buy small cap stock willy nilly, on average you will not do well.

I believe you should only buy smallcaps with a competitive advantage, or moats. but GCB at 2 billion is not really a small cap, I have recently invested a small amount in GKENT which is even smaller. But my "bias" there is based around the limited number of companies with successful LRT deployment which is local Malaysia company accepted by both UMNO and recent PH government (a small 500m company winning a 16.6 billion contract).

that aside, may I know why you buy and believe in GCB? As I am not a shareholder but I follow GCB and its peers closely, do you believe they can maintain or increase their high net profits (even while the latest financial report from director says consolidation and competition will dampen this ability), and what do you think they are currently doing right now better than the other rivals?

>>>>>>>

Do u know that Warren Buffet and Peter Lynch have made lots of money investing in small cap stocks?

that is what is known as a moat.

the moment GCB starts to rock the boat, it is easy for confectioners like Nestle etc to move to other sources of raw materials. Even Barry already owns KL Kepong Cocoa (KLK Cocoa), and are more than fit to take over and compete directly and import cocoa derivatives over.

If it was that easy to make your own chocolate brand they would have done it a long time ago. Very easy: if you start competing with your end users you end up like IQgroup (they moved from supplier to competitor then suddenly all their orders dried up).

Consider the problem. It is easy to make cocoa powder, dry it and ship it out. But if you start making a milo competitor, do you think Nestle will want to buy their raw materials from you?

Sorry Calvin, I'm not interested in knowing the lives of frauds who lead innocent people to hell.

Snort at your idea of good defensive stocks.
I repeat: what is your portfolio?
>>>>>>

pantech, naim, Uzma, Pohuat, T7 global, Asiapac and others such like defensive good stocks

Hi lmy059c, let me give you a clear cut example of my thought process.

The biggest cocoa grinder in the world is Barry callebaut with 1.7 million tonnes of cocoa produced every year.
The second biggest is olam producing 900k tonnes per year.
Cargill grinds 800k tonnes per year.
GCB is 4th biggest producing 250k tonnes per year.
JB foods produces 180k tonnes per year.

Now that Malaysia produces very little cocoa, majority of it comes from Cote dvoire and African countries. Meaning imports and currency changes(2014 losses) are a huge risk for GCB, the " biggest" cocoa GRINDER in Asia.

Notice how I highlighted grinder. They work with low margins historically because of high competition. Do you know what is the market size of cocoa?

Grinders and confectionery companies are two very different things.

Top 10 Largest Chocolate Companies in the World 2018 Rank Companies 2017 Net Sales (US$ billion) 1 Mars Wrigley Confectionery (USA) 18 2 Ferrero Group (Luxembourg / Italy) 12 3 Mondelēz International (USA) 11.6 4 Meiji Co Ltd (Japan) 9.7 5 Nestlé SA (Switzerland) 8.8 6 Hershey Co (USA) 7.5 7 Lindt & Sprüngli AG (Switzerland) 4.1 8 Ezaki Glico Co Ltd (Japan) 3.2 9 Arcor (Argentina) 3.1 10 Pladis (UK) 2.8 Source: ICCO

They have higher margins because of brand recognition. More sales, and better growth opportunities.

All those grinders sell to Nestle. Nestle chooses the cheapest. Meaning the grinders are always competing to give the lowest prices and maintain minimum margins.

Nestle has 10-16% net profit margins. Meiji, ferero, Hershey, mondelez.
GCB historically works below 7% margins. Barry is 5% historically.

Now I'm not saying you can't make money in GCB. But you need to understand why Nestle can be 50pe while GCB is 10pe.

GCB does NOT sell chocolate or chocolate milk. They are raw materials processor.

Welcome back stockraider. Everything ok? How is your health?

OTB has a record of his buying and selling portfolio trade. Do you?

>>>>>>
FYI, my ROI is 100% return dated 6/5/2019.
I have special skill whereas you do not have.
Show me your record that you are better than me.
17/05/2019 10:12 PM

OTB has a record, calvin. Do you?

>>>>>>

FYI, my ROI is 100% return dated 6/5/2019.
I have special skill whereas you do not have.
Show me your record that you are better than me.
17/05/2019 10:12 PM

very nice calvin. I have a portfolio on i3 that I keep up to date and have been updating the latest on 2019 on i3investor. I have been stuck in QL since 2009. May I see your 100% portfolio? you keep promoting stocks, I forget which you hold and which you sell.

Or are you like judas? All words and no determination?

Hi sslee, I think you are going about investing in the wrong way. I must admit I have only been to 4 agm (BRK 2 times, PBB and QL) in my entire life, and that was because my wife wanted the free gifts (and holiday in Nebraska and visit my daughter).

Warren buffett has bought entire companies without even meeting the directors or visiting the companies.

I have come to believe the reasons are very simple.

Do the simple things, the most efficient and easy to achieve.

Dont waste your time and money buying microcaps, or betting on companies with "potential" to make big bucks. Just concentrate on the sure things, the least risky options which are profitable and even idiots can understand what they are doing.

Those who don't know how to evaluate risk, they buy JJPTR, Swiss gold, five element coin, forex, etc etc only thinking about big profit etc.

Those who know how evaluate risk, will benchmark everything versus the 4% fixed deposit, and find the business with the highest upside versus the lowest downside.

Hengyuan YOU know is now a company owned by china company (same like xinquan) with their own agenda and their own plans. Any returns or profits will be on their terms, not yours. Their goals (like xinquan) may not coincide with yours.

Their valuation was done at 51% bought from shell at 66.3 million USD February 2016. This must be the benchmark upon which your valuation of hengyuan must begin as well. When they bought over the controlling rights, the "story" was that hengyuan would be able to upgrade and complete the transition of the shell refining plants at a far cheaper cost than Shell itself could do, and comply with all the regulations.

But why jump so high and take so much risk to understand a complicated business? Invest in low hanging fruit with low chance of failure, with a acceptable profit benchmarked on the risk (and the historical growth, debt, management).

Big bets on greedy companies with big short term profits (and even higher underlying risk) will just result in tears.

private placements and rights issues are never a good sign, no matter how good the marketing and storytelling can be.

I think the last time I recall QL having a rights issue was in 2014.
PCHEM has never had one.
Public bank last did one in 2014.
Topglove chose to do convertible bonds instead, something similar but with less dilution of shareholder value.
I can't recall if GKENT has every done one in recent years, but I do know they do buybacks.
Yinson did one in 2014, which was funnily enough, OVERSUBSCRIBED. Turns out if you use rights issue to pare down debt and do things properly, there will be support.

Doing any private placements or rights issue when the market is challenging is never doing the right thing by the investors. Management has to give big discounts to raise cash, and in the end the ones that lose out are the owners and minority shareholders of the company.


Malaysian investors are weird. They look down on companies that do buybacks and overly value dividend payout. They should understand context, buybacks when the intrinsic share value is low and debt paring vs dividend payout (or even borrowing money to pay a dividend) is key in raising long term value.

Calvin you don't even know the meaning of the word safe:

Uzma - microcap where the business hasn't grown, but the share dilution is growing faster than its profits.
Kps - this one is ok, but like they say, a broken clock gets it right twice a day. good job clock! but 5% split into 50 stocks means nothing.
T7 global - PE50 company Calvin? Wow really? for a company with no moat, no monopoly, no growth? you call this safe? Jesus wept. You really like leading honest Christians into hell.
Pohuat - furniture maker that has been stuck as a mid-income trap for a long long time.


What is with you and microcap stocks anyway? is your goal only to promote, pump and dump and run away?


Why cant you invest in good growing, well managed companies for once?

Wendy pizza? what is that? or are you talking about wendys burger? FM is pure gamble? It is 100 stores now and have already broken even. Get your facts right at least calvin.

My last purchase was 6.25 in December. I continue to buy more after looking at quarterly report.

Last I heard someone suck at asianpac for many many years.

Guffaw.

>>>>>>>>>

Stock: [ASIAPAC]: ASIAN PAC HOLDINGS BHD

May 13, 2019 4:45 PM | Report Abuse

Calvin still holding asiapac

Yup, I never ask anyone to follow me, I am just presenting my 'contrarian" view of what I think about the company. In fact, I would advise anyone that can't make their analysis but relies on old men like me or what other people say to not put their money into stock market.

Very dangerous if you don't know what you are doing or why you are buying.

Using this logic, if someone post positive comment, that means the stock is good.

If someone post negative comment, that means the stock is good.

So any comment means the stock is Good?

>>>>>>

Posted by InvestsucessTrader > May 18, 2019 8:38 AM | Report Abuse

Beware!! If someone post negative comments on the stock, that means the stock is good because they are trying to scare everyone to sell, so they can buy at a cheaper price, and presently they are not holding any share.

Good point, however... Why does Berkshire buy See's candies? Why does mondelez buy Cadbury? Why is Hershey's a rm100b company? Why is gcb historical net profit margins sub5%? Why

The simple answer is pricing power due to brand recognition and market competition. Simply put, there is no way for gcb to raise prices without hurting their margins. The moment they do, everyone will start buying raw materials from somewhere else cheaper.

Think of it this way: everyone know h&m, Zara and Uniqlo. The average person doesn't even care who that Indian or Chinese company that supplies all the clothes to them. The moment the Indian/China company starts to raise prices or complain about low margins, zara, H&M and Uniqlo can just go down the street to Bangladesh and get cheap raw materials from there.

I don't know how long the global demand will continue to be so high. But what I do know is, everyone including gcb is rushing to increase the manufacturing space and production capacity, which will lead to a overcapacity.

GCB is commendable in reducing their borrowing from 780 million to 600 million, but it makes you wonder why a "wonderful" company with 50 million in cash needs to borrow so much and pay such a huge interest every year ( and dividends), while other companies like Nestle,Mars, Hershey's and Cadbury(mondelez) are cash generating cows with very low dent levels.

If you think they will continue to enjoy high margins 5-10 years from now, gcb is definitely a good buy. But I find it unlikely in the long run. Especially when I realize I have almost as much deposits, bank and cash balance as GCB. That is worrying.

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Posted by lmy059c > May 18, 2019 12:22 AM | Report Abuse

let me add some salient points to the brief, professional and unbiased report. GCB is listed as RHB's one of the top 5 small cap jewels for 2019. Its last 1 yr return is more than 150%. GCB is the largest cacao grinder in Asia and the 4th largest in the world. GCB is NOT a chocolate manufacturer itself but it supplies cacao ingredients (4 types altogether) to other chocolate manufacturers including world class choco manufacturers such as Hershey and Mars. So, please please don't ever compare GCB to other small choco manufacturer like Cadbury...…..

I'm not really interested in cocoa grinders, it's too easy to export and process and there are too many competitors. Everyone knows lindt and ferero and Cadbury and Royce. Not many people know guan Chong. The former have pricing control and a moat, whereas guan Chong only make money recently for to consolidation and low Malaysian currency. There is no long term competitive advantage, as 2014 shows.

If you think about it, it is very very easy to process cocoa around the world, turn it into blocks of chocolate and ship it around relatively easy. The ones that have staying power on the grinding end are those that produce their own cocoa and have their own farms. Even then, the better the quality, the lower the margins for grinders. I'm not a fan of these kinds of businesses.

I think there is a perfectly valid why gcb is pe10.

Malaysian don't know how to appreciate or buy good chocolate. Nestle has trained the average Malaysian into thinking good chocolate is just sweet cocoa(aka Milo). That's why the average Malaysians won't pay up for Godiva/Royce chocolates etc. To them, a Cadbury chocolate is a good chocolate ( which is untrue, it's just milk,sugar and emulsifier, flavoring and coloring and a little bit of cocoa).

If you tried eating a bar of 100% pure chocolate (no sugar added, just pure cocoa), it would be unedible. I've tried.

The real money is not in the supplier, it's the end manufacturer. Just ask Cadbury and Nestle.

Funnily enough, cadbury became a household name when they reduced the amount of chocolate in their mix and added now milk (Cadbury dairy chocolate).

GCB not my cup of tea.

Fully agreed, Jason.

Thanks for the misguided information. Please be advised on the difference of scuttlebutt and insider trading. If your wife works in public Bank as a bank manager and she sees the loan portfolio of pbb Vs CB,rhb etc that is scuttlebutt. If your good friend works in ql as a plant maintainence manager and pays you promptly before due date every month, that is scuttlebutt. If you are the subcon of a well paying company in a major project, that is scuttlebutt.

If you have access to information that is not publicly available, that is INSIDER TRADING.

Understand what is stock manipulation and not.

Protasco.
Talamt.
Karambunai.
Bonia.
CSC steel.

Many. Many. More.

Hide the losers. Promote the winners.

Average everything together. You know the results

Standard scam activities.

JJPTR. No need show portfolio anything can say.

The part that worries me the most is Calvin putting himself as a buycall specialist with high hitrate and free information. But what happens after people start believing in him is the dangerous part.

First class free, 2nd WhatsApp group free. After that okay for information. Then pay 45k for sure win info from his Johor sifu ( rich dad) but not Calvin tan (I'm just a follower!).

Just. Like. Kiyosaki. Hide the lies between the truths. Make money. Rinse and repeat.

>>>>>>
https://thecollegeinvestor.com/4726/ultimate-hypocrite-robert-kiyosaki-companys-bankruptcy/

CSC steel buycall 1.51.
bonia buycall 0.5.

So many buycall, no cut loss call? Or we assume Calvin practices buy and hold?

Or forget losers keep promoting winners, and keep repeating old stories?

How does Calvin really make his money... Johor sifu? Is this line that rich dad poor dad kiyosaki guy? ( He never had a rich dad) aaaannnd when we put his real estate investing skills to the test, he lost money on the reality show...

Interesting. I have just stumbled onto this thread about a pathological liar. Funny how today csc steel is still undervalued at 1.12. what day you Calvin? Isn't it undervalued, are you buying more?

I thought I was the only one who thought your recommendations and WhatsApp collection was strange.

Apparently you have been doing thing like this for a very very long time. Why continue? Definitely the is an economic benefit for you.

Now that I know this is your rice bowl, I will let you earn your money ( and burn in hell) and stop replying or talking about your "stock" picks.

You have no long term value. Since majority of the i3 cried know week enough to avoid you, you can only fleece the new investors in the forum.

Fleece away. Everyone needs to eat.

Even Swiss cash and JJPTR.


>>>>>>>

ALWAYS TELL THE TRUTH. NOTHING BUT THE TRUTH.

THE TRUTH IS CALVIN ONLY INVESTED LESS THAN 5% CAPITAL IN STICK MARKET.

AND AFTER MARKET CRASHED BY 80% - 90% THEN CALVIN FULLY LOAD UP

HOHOHO!!!
15/10/2018 8:31 PM

Because I actually like what I am doing? There are many millionaires around who still work into their 70s and 80s because for them this is fun. For me I stock investing is a habit, a discipline.

If I find it fun to do investing and work in a company where I have fun and no stress, wouldn't it be good?

4444, it may be a difficult concept, imagine if you no longer have to work hard to survive, and you already have been to all the places you wanted to go, what would you do?

Wouldn't you rather work for fun? Learn new things everyday, meet new people? Leave all the stress to the company owner, while you get to manage your own engineering team (leave the stress to them) and just do the best you can? Be in a situation where people need you, trust you, respect you and listen to your opinions?

Money is not the answer. Its good for keeping track though.

Chia song kun ( ql boss is 69)
Warren buffet ( Berkshire boss is 90)
Lee choon chin ( weida boss is 65)
Lee wee Yong ( hap Seng executive director is 72)

These are all people that I have personally met and have a great respect for, all of them many times richer than you or me.

Asking them to retire is like asking them to stop breathing and just die of boredom.

I hope you learned something today.

THE MEANING OF LIFE IS TO GIVE LIFE A MEANING.

From signed contracts by China companies and other countries:

Kenya last month launched the construction of the 120km Phase 2A of the 489km standard-gauge railway line that will link Mombasa to the Ugandan border at a cost of US$1.76 billion (RM7.37 billion). This means it will cost about RM61.42 million per kilometre. There is no indication of the number of bridges that will be built or if there will be any tunnelling works involved.

In Bangladesh, China Railway Construction Corp signed a US$3.5 billion (RM14.65 billion) contract in August to build the 215km Padma rail line linking Dhaka to Jessore, which includes the construction of 66 major bridges, 244 minor bridges, 14 new stations and the procurement of 100 passenger coaches. And the project works out to RM68.14 million per kilometre.

For lrt3, at the latest meeting I attended, finalized is just 25 stations, no underground, and reduction from 6 box cars to 4 cars currently. If using China estimates, the estimated cost for this should be around 8-9 billion for 37 km. Why they renegotiated to 16.63 and awarded to Malaysian company and not directly dealing with China railway construction corp ( that is a 6.63 billion "moat") like ecrl? That is the investment part.

In either case my company is one of the subcons for gkent, and I continue to monitor closely. Although I may retire early before completion.

Sorry 16.6 billion contract. I believe gkent will not sign if it is not profitable long term. In either case there are many large civil contractors, but not many large mechanical & electrical specialist contractors around. Those who do contracts also know that m&e are generally smaller but are far more profitable than civil contracts which are bigger but less profit margins.

More importantly gkent is smart enough to work together with a financial partner to take the brunt of financial portion while they handle the technical portion. The normal margins for proper contracts are 20-30% for normal projects, for specialized projects are as high as 40%. This would be the renegotiated prices, which luckily gkent as PDP did not have to give any kickbacks to najib previously ( other NSC do that) using latest China estimates of their track and rail and system costs, the entire project should cost around 10-12 billion for that 37km work. I believe gkent should be able to share the 5 billion profit between them and mrcb. Which is a very good deal on the next few years for the parties involved.

Name me how many Malaysian companies make water meter in Malaysia and have the manufacturing and capability to win big contract in Hong Kong, Thailand and Singapore?

Name me how many Malaysian companies have done and completed mrt/lrt train cars and have the capability to manage control systems for trains?

How many companies were awarded lrt contract ( for m&e) in Malaysia this year?

Those who don't know contracting only think it means one thing. Those who know contracting know there are many parts to a contract, civil, m&e, elv, control systems.

Gkent is a SPECIALIST contractor. They don't do housing. They don't do condominium. They build water treatment plants, hospitals, sewage treatment plants, complex projects, critical infrastructure. High value, difficult to quote, hard to execute.

That is a moat.

Unless you think any contractor in Malaysia can do lrt? In a tender process, there is a requirement for Malaysian companies preferred with good financials and good past project experience. That is why they got the 1.89b project from pakatan. Not because they are golfing buddies with najib. All those projects they have gotten are high value, high profit, and guaranteed collection if they complete in time. I am one of their subcontractors, I know they can.

Not all contractors are the same. United technologies is also a contractor (specialist defense contractor). Honeywell is also a contractor (specialist HVAC contractor). Siemens is also a contractor ( automation and control). Do they have moat?

It depends. Can you hold it for 5 years and reinvest your dividends? If you can't then it's not good. If you can then it's good.
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1k into gkent right now