Foreign funds have been fleeing Malaysia since 2014.

1. Who cares what the contra is. In many countries ( even in nasdaq) where I invest there is no such thing as contra. Everything is moving day faster and more efficiently. You put money in interstate l immediately, you get money out immediately. It will not change the business fundamentals of bursa much.
2. Maybank makes 2 billion in earnings every quarter. If the loan goes up in smoke, will it be a continuous drag on future mbb earnings? No right? It will be at most a one time thing. The share price will definitely drop, causing mbb shares to be very very enticing. Look at salad oil crisis for amex. Same theory. Most likely same investment pattern. You have me another chun Chun buy call in Maybank this year.

3. Bond selling and foreign investor fleeing has been going since 2013. Here is real data.10 years for you to understand where we are in the market cycle.

https://tradingeconomics.com/malaysia/foreign-direct-investment

Changing of government will always bring the stock market down. As long as you did not buy on margin, you will be ok. The drag on all boats will be unfortunate, but that means you will have a big discount for you to buy ( I bought gkent, pchem using the same methodology). In the long run with a transparent, new government with a interest in making the country ( not themselves) successful like in Singapore. I am VERY VERY optimistic in Malaysia's long term future. After have only one side of the coin for more than 50 years, I am excited to see how the other side will perform. If you can buy it cheap now, when Malaysia overall business starts to turn out better ( we are already in the worst position in decades), at the bottom we can only look up.

Be patient, if the foreign investment leaves, when Malaysian companies starts performing, they will be back with a vengeance.

4.& 5. The main reason for them leaving is because of low confidence in Malaysian business and stock market. There are many many value traps in bursa, many crooks, many goreng counters. Once all the bad companies are flushed out, companies like talamt, protasco, sumatec, karambunai, destini, t7, basically all of Calvin tan value traps are squeezed out and delisted, proper healthy companies will be left. After this great housecleaning, you will have more minority shareholders investing in good performing, dividend giving companies instead of all the really wonderful Malaysian companies being privatised left right center and nothing for us smallholders ( weida, old town coffee, bernas, etc).

Imagine if you were a foreign investor, would you invest money into North Korea?

Confidence and reliability is key. I look forward to a Malaysia spring cleaning.

I don't invest in JAKS, and the possibilities of Vietnam working out( in verify if Malaysia) is definitely not in it's favor. So the risk in investing too early in an endeavor which is not producing energy ( and more importantly profits) but has a fixed debt payments is definitely there.

But on the other hand every dog has its day.

Calvin buys 50 random stocks. Definitely not all of them are bad. He always has one or two with spectacular results while the other are always declining and losing money long term so Calvin can build on his creative accounting of being "successful".

Who knows? Maybe JAKS will have it's day in the sun as well.

No one can predict the future, what we do is understand the risk involved. Some use margin of safety. Some use deep value assets. Some use business competitive advantage. Others use historical revenue/earnings growth performance.

That's why investing is so interesting.

calvinT saw beautiful future in protasco,asianpac, talamt and karambunai.

All I see is rubbish.

Who is right 5 year from now? Only time will tell.

Comparing a country to tiger woods is such an exercise in simplicity. Whether or not tiger woods gets sponsored, sink or swim does nothing to the country.

You must understand that there is no physical thing known as Malaysia. The rocks on one side of the border is the same as on the Singapore or Thailand end.

A country is purely a mental fabrication. We "believe" in Malaysia, therefore it exists. We need "Malaysia", because in times of distress we need an institution that is designed to protect us, care for us and sustain us.

You say we should all govern based on meritocracy. But your assumption is only if it does not affect you.

Would you ask for a government bail out if TM goes bankrupt? Or TNB goes bankrupt? Or Maybank (or whatever bank you use) has lost all your savings and increases your house loans interest rate by 5%?

What would happen if tomorrow you could no longer withdraw money from your ATM machine? Would you then argue on meritocracy or would you ask for that government bailout?

I believe that pakatan harapan has done an excellent job in doing the best they can with the mess they have. They are only touching the tip of the iceberg of how badly the country is being managed.

But you are right:

Step 1 in alcoholics addiction recovery: knowing that you have a problem and owning up to it. Then you can begin healing.

The technology works, the problem was cost of electricity in Singapore kept dropping to the point hyflux IPP started to lose money. Their sanitation plant alone would have made a lot of money. It was their INVESTMENT into combined cycle power plant that was their downfall.

Next week will be there last date for those who invest not based on how much they could lose, but how much they would stand to earn by taking those unrated bonds.

>>>>>>

Hyflux is untested technology in a limited market

Calvin you do know there is a difference between bonds and stocks right? If 32 billion of bonds are taken out of the market, where do you think the companies are going to get their funding? From the stock market. When the bonds go off the market, companies will be more inclined to get more funding by doing more rights issues and preferred shares and warrants sales in the stock market. To increase that interest in buying private placements rtc, more and more companies will have to entice customers and companies by doing share buybacks to increase the price, raise dividends to make it more attractive to hold, do preferred shares (ICULS) to raise money.

The only companies I would be worried about are those penny stocks and dent ridden companies you like do much.

https://www.thebalance.com/how-bonds-affect-the-stock-market-3305603

Good riddance to investors like you, it's better if you just keep 80%of your money in cash and stop harassing good investors.

It's a wonderful time to start investing in Malaysia.

Look on the mirror and apply that too yourself. When other new investors disagree with you, I'm not the one calling them stupid and idiotic and low in intellect.


>>>>>>

you people who believe in whatever high quality method, stick to your own way loh. But just be open minded that other people's methods work as well.

Yeah I learned early on that Calvin tan is worth nothing in terms of the quality of his analysis. I just ignore him these days, and leave the usual remarks if the stock he promotes is a Jordan Belfort stock.

Happy Easter Calvin.

There are two ways to look at it.

Probability is right from an academic point of view.

I prefer the wb, cm and Seth klarman way.

In investment you don't have to swing at every ball. You can wait and wait and wait for the perfect ball, and when it comes you put everything into it and swing it out of the fences.

The trick is to identify the perfect ball.

My method is simple, when I connect with the ball I swing with full extension, adding more weight and strength as time passes, keeping your form straight and true.

If you do the math, if you can do non spectacularly 20% every year return for 8 years on a few carefully chosen stocks, your returns in the long run is going to be better than someone who did:

+15%
-10%
+70%
-17%
+69%
+47%
+30%
-25%

The math checks out. When Einstein called compounding the 8th wonder of the world, he knew what he was talking about.

When you add the fact that knowing your business well gives you the confidence to reinvest your earnings in bigger and bigger amounts, well then you would know what I am talking.

Capital preservation is about knowing risk. I would argue that excessive diversification invites higher risk ( looking at icon8888 track record) because you just cannot know 35 stocks well enough to see who will end up in MIT and HARVARD.

>>>>>>>>>


Reason is at large capital its not 'worth it' to lose a significant sum as much as gaining it....

the importance should be more on preserving capital than gains.

To be honest I am very impressed with dk66 on his research into JAKS, it is a good start as an investor, the level of detail is to be commended.

I always find those who can buy 35 stocks amazing as they are either have a very strong team of analysts to help, or they love to research on stocks or have a very strong analytical mind to know exactly how their chosen companies will perform over the long term.

Just reading and comparing peers and performance and comps on my few stocks is already almost a full time job.

Even more so reading almost 4-6 hours a day on annual reports,trade journals, similar companies, better investments at lower risk to replace my current stable of stocks, it will be a full time job when I take my early retirement in a few years time.

Kudos dk66, I truly hope you do well, and continue to put your research of JAKS into 2022 and use that mental model to see if your investment thesis is proven correct.

I myself used my past bitter experiences in investments and used it to improve my investment philosophy in the long term.

Your attitude will serve you well.

That's why I hate fake investment banker investors like this, so called pro but the moment someone doesn't agree, he gets overly defensive, can't defend his own point of view or results ( and talk so much crap), and resorts to calling other people stupid to prove a point.

I have enough of discussion with poor investors like icon8888.

I will let him talk about me as much as he likes.( I have never pointed out his faults but he keeps on with his senseless personal attacks)

I have had enough entertaining trolls and low class investors.

I will refrain from calling him idiotic and stupid. But you know what I think about your investing skills lah. I make average of 20+ every year and 5+% dividends every year, consistently for 10 years.

Those who only started investing in 2011 should probably study a bit more, insult a bit less.Much better than those make 100% over year than lose 30% the next, two steps forward one step back investing. It shows you have no idea whatsoever what you are buying.

You icon8888 are a poor investor incapable of handling large sums of money. It's time you realize that fact and stop insulting others who have an alternative view.

Bye little kid. Since now I know when you started playing stock market I realized you really don't know much about investing.

Bye. Good luck in your future investments.

>>>>>

Posted by Icon8888 > Apr 21, 2019 1:59 PM | Report Abuse

Most people focus on petty things like this.

It reflects your lack of intellect

Maybe someone should tell him the Bitcoin fever is long over? And other Taiwanese and Chinese companies are making MUCH more competitive graphic cards these days....

Looking at his catastrophic drop since her bought Nvidia, all I can do is pity him.

Our friend had been averaging down and down and down on his LCTITAN, and worse he doesn't even know why he is buying or why he is losing money on his INVESTMENT. No wonder he is irritated when there are alternative views on his stock portfolio.

Since he has 160% Tetris on his warrants, I wonder what his real long term 10 year returns on his portfolio are like.

>>>>>>

Icon8888 My portfolio 35 Malaysia stocks

2 foreign stocks : Taiwan semicon and Nvidia
>>>>>>>>>

con8888 Bought more at 415
30/01/2019 3:11 PM

>>>>>>>


Icon8888 Why keep going up geh ?

Anybody ?
15/02/2019 3:19 PM

>>>>>>>>>

but all these becomes non issue when you put on a long term investor cap

why pick this for long term ?

ask yourself what kind of company is this ?

answer : a world class company. It has economy of scale, financial resources, expertise and proper governance to go very far

The biggest difference between icon8888 and Philip is Philip knows not to swing at every ball, he chooses his investments carefully and only when he is very very sure something will work out the he pounce.

Icon8888 just buys everything, so his losses and winnings mixed in total is very poor, so he dares not declare his long term returns.

Philip on the other hand, has not made a loss in 10 years, even though his returns are not so spectacular ( I don't have 160% in a few weeks), he is able to manage larger and larger sums confidently.

Philip knows exactly what he knows, those that he doesn't he doesn't buy.

I would argue those who drive car with their left have, and do phone paying off LCTITAN on a WHIM at rm4.15 WHILE DRIVING, those are emotional investors who should be ignored and pitied.

Not every stock needs to be bought.

Those that cannot accept alternative views, those are poor investors indeed.

>>>>>>>

Posted by Icon8888 > Apr 21, 2019 5:53 AM | Report Abuse

Philip's biggest weakness is he doesn't know what he knows, what he doesn't know

He thinks the elephant is flat and thin, after touching the elephant ear

If you think JAKS is the one constructing the IPP then you really need to grow up. Jaks us just another Alibaba company with no money, no technical skills and no experience relying on a more experience partner to do their work.

>>>>>>>
Jaks has the best to construct and manage IPP Vietnam to mitigate the risk

Why are you wasting time arguing with Calvin tan, let's face it Maybank is giving out 6% dividend today, and if hyflux is really bad news to mbb it will only be an opportunity to buy.

Think about it, in the long term, has the business fundamentals of Maybank changed? Are it's branches closing down? Is it no longer profitable? Are you going to close your mbb account and open savings in POSB?

It's impossible. The exposure, the balance sheet basically everything is solid, even if you have another salad oil crisis ( like AMEX) it will only mean that you get to buy more Maybank at Rock bottom prices.

The business fundamentals are untouched in the long term.

I can't say the same for other investments that Calvin has made ( talamt, protasco, karambunai,destini,asianpac, etc etc etc)

He is a troll with no portfolio pure and simple.

You would listen to a dog barking and ignore it just the same.

To be honest I don't really like UP. With it's good margins and profits and big cash pile, the fact that they do not expand and grow when the process are low makes me think that they are far too conservative, especially in agricultural industry. If I were them, I would look to consolidate and rework more JV with plantation land or grow more new areas while the process are low. Then when they reach maturity in 7-8 years I get to enjoy the fruits during the breakout cycle of palm oil then.

I have about 30 acres now of small palm oil plantation land hear the tawau main trunk road, revenues and profits are increasing. personally I will not invest in any palm oil stocks while they still have the windfall tax in play, and the brent price down. I will be the first to announce if I do invest in any purely palm oil stocks. In either case, QL also has refineries and palm oil plantation that will reach maturity just as the palm oil prices recover and break out ( due to China support) which I expect 3-5 years from now.

Knowing icon8888 history of insulting people then deleting comments, I shall record his words here for posterity.

Mana tahu like to say ex-engineer, ex-sukuk investment banker ( but with no portfolio and no record of long term returns) we shall wait and see how he performs.

>>>>>>

My prediction is that history will repeat itself. Come end 2019, the sharp tongues will go back to the jungle to hide. I will be sitting on 200% profit, at least

My decision to buy or hold is guided by EPS

I don’t understand why you guys are confused and distracted by so many other things

But it is ok, I thrive on other people foolishness

Such as when I bought wb at 25 sen

A big thank you to those fools. Without you, I would not be able to do so well

Doesn't matter. You are one of those fools that I mentioned above

I don't expect you to understand

Optimusprime88, if you have nothing constructive to say you could say nothing. You add nothing of value to the discussion.

Charter contract for 8 years, if stop o&g company will pay penalty ( shop renovation cost), and yinson can bid at cheaper rate (using same assets) for new site cheaper than armada and sapura.

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/AmInvestResearch/195850.jsp

If still don't understand, I highlight this part for you:

Instead of a bank guarantee, the principal will be paying directly for the US$120mil modification costs of the vessel as a prepayment of the charter revenue, which will be progressively offset over the 7 firm years. As such, we are impressed by management’s commendable arrangement which does not bear any significant risk from a charter termination nor incur any new capex for the vessel, which has already been fully paid by its earlier charter with Canadian Natural Resources.

Previous charter termination in Africa already paid back the penalty of usd80 million. So free ship, free money, no need to borrow money from shareholders or loans to pay for new project. Use back same resources ( already paid for during last project).

Faham duit jatuh Dari langit?

Share price jump from rm4.15 to rm4.60

>>>>>
When oil price collapse oil kompeni kan stop operation all together all ur FPSO wil b idle

I don't say I am invest God. I am telling you details that everyone conveniently forget in their search for alpha.

Did I say I am the best investor? Did I make a investment so far that went bad?

I think my investment in gkent on margin (1 million shares some more) is more aggressive than you or sarifah. But it is based on fundamentals and business sense ( no debt, cash free, 6.4% dividend a year).

What do you mean by more aggressive? So you also about JAKS is a risky investment? Then good you also learn something today.

I hope you have good returns on your investment in JAKS.

>>>>>

Posted by Nikmon > Apr 20, 2019 1:03 PM | Report Abuse

old man investing in old way, young could be more aggressive, @philip not right and wrong, you are not the best neither the worst, but dont talk like invest god here.

Ini yg cakap tapi Tak baca annual report.

Bumi armada share price crash because payment is based on oil prices.
Yinson share price is is because payment is fixed boat rental contract, doesn't matter oil price up or down. Sewa ferry faham? Fixed rate.

>>>>>>
Bila oil price collapsed customers u jz don't pay up

Whose credit risk is bigger? Yinson or Jaks??

I already tripled more my money since 2014. I hold the shares for long long time. How long you invested in JAKS?


>>>>>
Who has more clarity going forward into 2025?? Yinson or Jaks?

Alp appointed bod is all HIS men. Business decisions is all his end. He is using company money to do his business deals. Heads he wins, tails he also wins.

Share price drop it go up it doesn't really matter.

In fact, share price and company earnings and profits are not related ( see INSAS, forever net assets higher than market cap).

What is related is company control.

If share price low, Alp can proceed to convert at low low price. Share price high he gets to do more rights issue and private placement.

But director salary he control.
Company direction he control.
Company compensation he control.
Company wealth and rewards to SHAREHOLDER, he control.

Sarifah, baca sikit cerita xinquan, cash 1 billion (konon). Minority SHAREHOLDER 1 seen pun tak dapat. Skrng company pergi Mana? Balik China...

Faham pattern sikit.

Angkuh Dan liar bagus.... Tapi jangan bodoh ditipu management.

Share investing is not for everybody.

>>>>>>
every 1% drop ALP stand to lose 1 million, dilution 10% does not fortune ALP, instead reduce his wealth....so PP is good for the company not ALP this is confirm.

Tak pernah kerja company? Don't know claim and expenses is out tender corporate not personal?

Baru first day kerja ke ni?

Atau still in school?

>>>>>>>>
Do u know how much of this 1.5m has gone to "entertain" Vietnam official

Yinson was a lousy transport company turnaround. I invested it after it stated it's fpso business and successfully got the charter contract up and running, and earnings clarity.

Notice I put the word AFTER. I did not invest in YINSON before, I did it after success was clear.

I earn less than those at the beginning, but I had much lower risk.

Do you see me investing in bumi armada and sapura today at low low all time low prices? No.

Do you see me buying JAKS at high prices rm1.8?. No.

Why? There is no clear prospects or earnings in the quarterly report.

Very simple. Right now is pure speculation.

If I do invest in JAKS, it will be right after the both units go operational, got earnings, payment from Vietnam government, everything running ok, and earnings and dividend reported in quarterly report. I may earn less, but I will know it's there. Better to earn 10% every year for 10 years than to earn 30% every year for 9 years and lose 50% in the last one.

Faham? Risk is the all important thing.


>>>>>
Safifah think u would have asked Yinson not to switch biz to FPSO more so what was happening to Armada at that time

Volunteer means doing s something for free. You give me same benefits as Alp la. CAN!

I get paid to work (1.5 million).
And I get to use shareholder equity ( other people's money) to run around and make details.
And I get more of company shares even when the plant not operational try.

Boleh bah kalau kau!

>>>>>>
Philip klau u ALP would u volunteer to do the extra 7 8 years of running around wit no guarantee of success for FOC?

无知的男孩

Cuma budak budak yg tak cukup matang akan fikirkan advice sebagai criticize.

Tak dapat cakap logic nak cakap ibu bapa mertua.

Awak jawab la.

I pay you 1.5 million every year 7-8 years to work. Lepas work minta lagi company share, fair ka?

Malu apa bossku mentality?

How many shares in JAKS do you have sarifah? Let's be honest, how many did you buy and at what price? Are you stuck?

One advice I can give you, you don't have to earn back the money the same way you lost it.

>>>>>>>>>

Philip hope after this morning it is clearer to u by now the reasons why u remain a small fly that rely on bapak mertua and wife u

Why not applicable? We are talking about good corporate governance. Do you think the board of directors in pchem has anybody from pakatan harapan or bn politicians? Like in felda, tabung haji,epf, etc? Would you like it if pchem board of directors all bn politicians? Why not? Do you not suspect that they may approve actions which is detrimental to shareholders? Like buying a hotel for 3x the real value and kickback the difference to themselves.

Or golden keen ltd award "consulting" work of 10 million ( Expansion of JRB’s business in the power industry by venturing into renewable energy projects in South East Asia (“Renewable Energy Projects”) ). Pay to whom? Kickback where? Who benefits? Think out of the box what it means.

You don't think LTIP and PP and rights issue not detrimental to shareholders?

If I get salary 1.5 million every year, I will have a responsibility to do proper job.

Why need to have additional options and free warrants and shares etc?

Directors join is to earn money for shareholders. If you keep asking for money from shareholders, what does that mean?

>>>>>>

not applicable to compare with Wallen Buffalo and American giants. ....all corporatised already.

Neither do you. Do you want Stevens number instead and talk to him and sink drink with him? I can send you his business card. Give me your email? But let me ask him first if he wants to meet you. How many shares in JAKS do you own?

>>>>>

But u got no crystal ball to see what happens by 2025

That's why they don't allow kyy as majority SHAREHOLDER to join board of directors.

Faham?

Zero logic lasarifah, you teda beza langsung dengan spinninglotus sapura page.

Semua investment buy high stuck low now from trader become "long term" investor.

Stop talking nonsense, angkuh Dan liar boleh jangan balik balik repeat useless information macam stockraider.

What do you mean foc? You tak nampak Alp get 1.5 million salary every year to work for shareholders? It is HIS job. The reason for LTIP is bod (appointed by him) approved to reward themselves. FYI still no guarantee of success yet from your power plant. Not a single cent of EARNINGS from Vietnam power plant.

What running around? Warren buffet get paid 100k a year, you think he taking LTIP? You think got ESOS? You know Berkshire with how much?

Understand what a partnership means.

If you own your own company with your brother. Both 50/50, you come out money he do the work. You don't receive gaji, he got gaji. Then after get project on top of gaji he want 60/40, you happy happy? It's your money he using, Tak payah Kira risk?

Only those who are new to investing thing in simple terms.

Angkuh Dan liar best betul, senang cara hidup ini.

>>>>>
SarifahSelinder Philip klau u ALP would u volunteer to do the extra 7 8 years of running around wit no guarantee of success for FOC?

Sarifah :

你要不断学习
不然会变井底之蛙

Faham? As a Malaysian, we have the opportunity to converse in Malay, English, Chinese on a daily basis.

Rugi if your mind only don't expand only fit into small box.

China will soon own 40% of Malaysia, like it does Africa now.

Learn something new everyday, there is more to INVESTING than just one company called JAKS.

Same like learning Chinese, English and Malay.

Kena expand sikit minda tu faham?

You bengap ke apa ni? Kerja CEO director take gaji ke? Ko fikir dia CEO kat Jaks ni volunteer work ka? Baca balik annual report Tu baik baik?
Ko fikir gaji setahun dia any CEO 100k per year mcm Warren buffet?
Ko fikir board of directors takde director fee?
Ko fikir geng dia appointees for compensation board fair ke?

Fikir betul betul apa itu fair.

CEO dan director company pchem setahun ada revenue 17 billion, net profit 5 billion, setiap tahun tak pernah rugi untung 25% net profit dividend setiap tahun makin besar.

Adik rasa ada LTIP? Staff kerja professional Petronas ada esos? Compensation plan ada berpuluh puluh berjuta juta ringgit?

Angkuh Dan liar memang bagus.

Tapi jangan la emosi.

>>>>>
LTIP to ALP not fair?

T2 is very good la calvin, can flush out people like you who manipulate market on margin.

Those who live by the margin die by the margin.

FYI, if you are a big time trader ( I'm sure you are Calvin, right?) You can still enjoy t+10 with some of the securities firms out there.

Just ignore icon8888 he is a big time troll. He acts as if he is very good in investing with 160% returns in his portfolio, but his actual long term returns are very poor ( he thinks bursa is a poor performing stock exchange) and his actual portfolio is actually very small.

No difference between him, Calvin tan and choi yi kit capital.

Add his long term winners and his long term losers, all you get is a very bitter old lady.

His views are actually very harmful especially because like Calvin tan (who hides his losers under the rug and promotes his winners) he actually has a few followers who read his "beliefs".

>>>>>

How many pages of Howard Mark has you read ? I have read the entire book. You can fool others, but cannot fool me.

>>>>>

Whatever Howard mark said doesn't bother me . I didn't even watch his video

I am just saying it casually (the bull market until 2020). I could be wrong, doesn't matter. No harm having a view on certain thing, but bear in mind there is not sufficient data to deem it a high probability event

This is silly, arguing for arguing sakes. Its very simple to see that Howard marks buys when it has value and sells when everyone is overvaluing. I learned from him you buy for the long term but you monitor quarterly.

If you have a paid subscription to gurufocus, you will know that he has 84 stocks currently in his portfolio list. Some are distressed debt, held and sold within 3 years, some are undervalued growth which is kept within 5 years, and some like unitau the Brazilian bank he has bought for a long time and adds more with every 10k submission ( +8 years). Stop pigeonholing Howard marks into one simple metric, that man is wiser than you think.

Stop just reading his old books, if you invest in oaktree capital funds( my wife does), you get to enjoy his memos and letters and his investment philosophy.

Warren buys and hold companies ( or like me legacy stocks with strong long term performance) because you need to keep up a reputation as a caretaker of business.

In terms of stocks you can only enjoy capital gains and dividends as a minority investor. Your only true compass is yearly earnings growth.

So yes Warren buffet and Howard marks both hold long term ( coca cola and banks) and short term ( Berkshire bought 2b oracle in 3q and zero shares in 4q).

And no both of you are wrong. Howard marks doesn't buy based on market cycle ( like Calvin tan with his o&g calls and ecrl etc), he uses it as a guide to understand RISK ( where we are in the business cycle). He still buys COMPANIES based on its individual merits, margin of safety and long term prospects.

Like any normal investors should.

He however judges by how much he can lose in relation to the success probability, rather than how much he can earn.

>>>>>>
Posted by Icon8888 > Apr 19, 2019 11:49 AM | Report Abuse

When come to timing market cycles, I agree with you it is easy say than done

I am seldom successful in doing that

But we are not arguing about the merit of timing market cycles, we are arguing whether Howard mark holds long term. The answer is NO, because Howard mark times market cycles

It doesn't work like that. Any stock that you don't understand week is speculating. What do I mean understand well? If you can remember from the top of you head the last 20 quarters revenue and earnings, what corporate actions was taken, what business growth was taken, what contracts, order book and profit margin, warrants buybacks esos figures? Then you are starting to know more about your stock.

If you invest based on listening to other people's stock recommendation ( I did not recommend QL btw, I bought bulk of it 10 years ago), you will be speculating.

>>>>>>>

Unker like that I not bad leh... I have QL (after Unker Philip advice), Serba, Harta.... Means I think i am not speculating already wakakaka

Pchem can include or not?

It is a really good time to go all in. Fixed deposit rates at 5% CIMB latest offer, Maybank is giving out 6.4% dividends at trailing prices. A lot of good companies selling at cheap prices with his performance.

At this rate buying companies instead of industries and indexes is more important than ever.

As long as you understand that JAKS is a mix term investment where you goal is rm1.5 tp sell then I am sure you will make money. It is a far cry from some of the other investors on the i3 Jaks voucher where they suddenly think Jaks will be a tp7 and rm9 company.

Have a happy good Friday!

dK66, if you will listen to a tired old man, and find the allure of making 160% in warrants in a few short months, or tripling your money in a year, I recommend you reading this. I hope it helps you in your investing journey.

>>>>>>>>>>>

https://klse.i3investor.com/m/blog/phillipinvesting/188844.jsp

Sorry I'm not a trader, I try to avoid stocks with volatile big swings in the short term. This one let you win, I don't know how to play trading game. If you say compare batang over longer period 5 years, then it's my forte, I'm confident yinson will do wonderfully well over a long period.

The trick is always to stay invested in the market and make a long term profit.

Qqq3, seriously I'm not trying to pour cold water on your investment in JAKS, in fact if all of you do well ( including icon8888) I am more than happy for you guys. I'm just trying to provide more boxes for you to tick off so you will not find a nasty surprise like kyy did.

>>>>>>>>

I didn't say same......I say lets enter big batang competition, end of the year.

I did not want to point out the obvious, if the share price drops, JAKS still needs the money to complete the IPP project. Meaning they will be forced to issue more shares at lower prices to complete their cash call. And if private investors get cold feet, what then? Raise bonds with high coupon rates? If the IPP returns were so wonderful, why did they not raise high coupon sukuk bonds in the first place? (This one need to ask sukuk specialist ex investment banker icon8888).



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Current price not 80 sen why said RM 1? PP at 72 sen? If tomorrow drop to 75 sen PP at 68 sen?

You already have a biased remark as an investor with this statement. As you already think it is a lifetime opportunity and nothing anyone can say will sway you. That is good. Confidence is to be commended.

But let me bring you to mind what Mr Lee has remarked especially in the qualitative side ( as you only concentrate on quantitative analysis)

1. Do you know what is in the PPA agreement or is it an assumption based on a woman is fat so you don't need to know how much she weighs.
2. The returns, actions taken and the figures given by CFO, public bank analysts, CEO does not jive with what you believe is happening, so they must be wrong and you must be right?
3. The figures brought up by people who have been to Vietnam, seen the location, spoken directly to the management seems overly conservative so they must be inaccurate?

I do hope you do well, as I'm sure you have already made money averaging down your investments.

But I do feel the not knowing and knowing part can be hubris.

Especially now you know why I was reluctant to speak further about my conversation with Steven and the private placements that came just a few weeks after my discussion( and his share sales).

Now that the cat is out of the bag, I leave it up to you to consider if share dilution is a good thing or a bad thing.

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Those who do not know will think investing in Jaks is a speculation. However, for those who know, is a lifetime opportunity.

The difference between a private placement and a IPO is the IPO is a fixed rate. The private placenent is in tranches with agreed upon rates when they close the deal. In this case the management has agreed on maximum of 10% BELOW market rate.

This is designed to protect the private investor with additional discount so he have a built in profit to justify purchasing shares in JAKS. So if say the current share price is rm1, they will be able to buy the shares at rm0.9 to pump in money to jaks directly, and prices to sell the shares off directly to you and earn the percentage difference immediately ( or hold it longer).

Otherwise what would be the benefit for an institution to put in money in a "private IPO", understand?

I am sure you already know this as an accountant, I am just a jungle living Sabah engineer amateur investor.

There is no free lunch.


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both need money for business lah.

If you don't know the difference, then I really nothing more to say.

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IPO or PP

what is the difference?

no difference lah.

Qqq3, all the oil and gas counters dropping, only one is holding steady and going up. Guess who? Give you clue, the company starts with a Y... Performing better than bumi armada. And it just bought back 2.6 million shares last month, at rm4.58. and got good news with new ordering coming in soon.

Yes as rights issue allows existing shareholders to keep their share percentage, not that minor shareholders like icon8888 know what that means. He only wants short term profits.

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Right issue is fairer to existing shareholders as PP is issued at a discount to a selected few.