I really don't think HARTA will change much in their pricings. Valuation adjust? In the short term anything can happen, in the mid and long term in Malaysia it matters little.

If they go to full on world war 3 different story la. Trade war and real war different.

>>>>>
everybody lose.....people got less money....pricings and valuation adjusted. ......company fundamentals do not change, pricings change.

Their main argument was that the reduction in profit was due to sudden rise in MYR in a short term combined with their inability to pass the costs down to customers in time for the orders impacting their profit loss this quarter. So do you think they will be able to pass the costs down in future? If the answer is yes, then it is a good opportunity to buy more, if you think no, then not. For me personally I don't know HARTA that well, but the manufacturing lines are still growing and more products are being used ( increased revenues) so in the future I believe they will continue to do well 5-10 years on
>>>>>>

For instance, Hartalega recent QR dropped 22% QoQ, but I see the revenue is growing, just that the Costs have increased more attributed to sharp rise in MYR, increased electricity costs, labour costs and etc. In my opinion, I strongly think that the fundamentals remain intact. What do you think?

Wow, spoken as if you know them well. Probably never been to a Berkshire annual meeting before. Well I went to this years, do you know what they bought? Amazon at high PE. Why? Because Warren says just using PE and book value alone to judge a company is silly. You need to understand how much cash the company can generate over it's lifetime and make a decision to invest. QL is a company in a industry that is fast consolidating ( how many big competitors to family mart, 7-11 can you name? Let than 10) where small competitors are quickly pushed out and the big ones ( leong hup, ql, japfa, CP) just keep on getting bigger. Do you see people stop eating chickens and eggs and fish products?

Stop looking yourself Calvin. You have no clue how to invest, you are a trader. So stop trying to teach people how to invest. So far the longest I have seen you ask people to buy and hold is 5 months.

>>>>>>
calvintaneng Qqq3

Calvin follows many other than buffet

There are Schloss, Been Graham, Peter Lynch, Hoeard Marks and John Need

This year I follow more on John Neff and Sifu Peter Lynch

Both John Neff and Peter Lynch will sell Ql at such lofty valuation

This is your opinion. Any proof yet? Tell me when it happens.

>>>>>>>>

everybody lose.....people got less money....pricings and valuation adjusted. ......company fundamentals do not change, pricings change.



what is worth $ 100 before suddenly worth $ 90 next.



got to recalibrate......come Friday.....tarif hike is a sure thing.

Why I say it doesn't matter, this is in terms of context of company fundamentals and share prices. Give you a simple example on one of your favorites, if you really like JAKS, the share price drop a lot ( the entire market drop a lot) is due to us/china sentiments. But if you believe the company is good you will know to wait until the quarterly results come out to make your decision.

This us/chn is only temporary and will not affect the business fundamentals of majority of your Malaysian bursa companies. Your oil is same price, your steel is same price. Your cement price. Your house cost the same. Your chicken rice cost the same.

Your share price dropping 10-20% without any earnings report? That is just a new discount Mr market gives you. If you have new funds, time to take advantage.

I know I have. Buying more PCHEM, GKent, YINSON, and probably buying more topglov and ql after reading the next quarterly report.

Again, us/chn trade war will not affect PCHEM, GKent, YINSON etc business at all.

Quarterly report out, perfect timing to spend my dividends and income on more discounted shares.

Stop putting words in my mouth little girl. All I said is I don't know enough about JAKS to invest in it. If I know everything there is to know about JAKS, then I would know about the Star thing. But sochai like you always like to praise people who agree with you as smart and those who don't as sochai.

You lost my respect.
>>>>>
Icon8888 And CFO so clever sold off at 73 Sen

Then he gave a pep talk to the Sabah sochai, who believed he knows everything about jaks

Exactly, if the company fundamentals do not change, and the price goes down, then it just gives you more if an opportunity to buy more.

Hmmm.... OPR rates reduced for the first time since 1996, I think.

What does portfolio rebalancing? If you mean sell for the sake of selling, no I don't do that. For me my portfolio rebalancing is based on a change in business fundamentals and new economic challenges that change my view on the long term economic returns of my investment. If it changes, I drop the stock.

One major example is my "portfolio rebalancing" of Public bank into petronas chemicals.

I regretfully sell something that is good, for something that is much better.

I don't agree with the idea of selling for the sake of selling.

I also don't do dollar cost averaging. I review my investments every quarter report instead to see if things have changed. If they haven't and the business is still strong, I buy more. Dollar cost averaging is just buying without understanding as the price drops it goes up.

Ah now we see how you really make money Calvin. 5% in 50 stocks, it is easy to chun Chun some calls and hide the others quietly.

And I obviously see the inverted quotes "free service" in your postings.

So pitiably sad.

Just in case you still live under a rock somewhere and don't realize that given 2 exact choices, everyone will always pick up the more convenient one.

Fact remains, cashless in more convenient ( and getting safer by the day) than cash. Sooner or later, Malaysia will embrace a cashless society like other parts of the world.

For banks, crm and cash machines may soon become a hindrance than a savings. If you can pay your bills online, why walk to the bank at all?

>>>>>
https://themalaysianreserve.com/2018/12/21/e-wallet-users-see-rapid-growth-in-msia/

Grab, Uber, tabao, Lazada, Alibaba were barely in Malaysia 5 years ago. Now everyone from my wife to my daughter uses it.

Whenever I travel these days I just use grab or Uber surcharge. When I am in a long meeting with my team, we just order Uber eats, panda.

Online transfers and Alibaba are my main mode of transferring money these days. Even cheques are slowly being phased out. Verification is becoming more and more safer with good security apps.

You only think about cash because you live in Malaysia. In China online wechat payments are dominating the market. In Japan almost everything can be paid via your smartphone. In many countries like in UK there I go often we don't even bring selling cash anymore, everything can be paid via debit card and credit card, from food, to bus rides to clothes to buying groceries at Tesco.

If you think the future is not going cashless then you need to think hard. Which would you rather carry if it was convenient, a card or a pile of easily stolen cash.

FYI even coin payments at the food court these days I just shake the boost to pay for it.

So yes, I use ewallet very very often. How often do you use cash to pay for your grab/uber rides?

>>>

Posted by bursadiary > May 5, 2019 11:50 PM | Report Abuse

Yes , cashless payment is here. How often do you use ewallet? Can I stop using cash? No. I still need cash everyday. Give me a call after you don't use cash anymore.

I did mine this way, I put 200k into QL back in 2009. Then every quarter report I read up on it. If the business is still doing well and continue to do well I put my 3 month savings into QL. So I did it for 10 years straight. That chicken rice dividend? I get almost 150k dividend every year now. But that is probably just lucky. Anyhow, invests in a growing hardworking company, it will do well for you.

>>>>>>
Law Jun no is like a joke my friend made like wait half a year to afford one chicken rice aka dividend

An analogy, and a mental model for you to remember, delayed gratification. You should read up about it, it is pretty interesting and useful, especially in investing.

Why go out to buy burger when you can learn to make one at home? I learnt to be pretty good at making ramli burgers in my day. Movies you have free these days ( my daughter introduced me to fmovies and Netflix). For the price of 3 movie I can basically watch Netflix for a month. Why do you need to watch the latest movies anyway? ( And paying rm60 for that latest imax custom VIP seat. It's still the same movie). You can watch it a month later on a discount Wednesday at rm5.

Anyway it's things like that that make a bigger difference in your investing life than what stocks you buy.

Attitude, patience and consistency.

>>>>>>>
Heavenly PUNTER Research IB Unker eating that burger and going for that movie is quite reasonable lah... No need to live life so sadly.... Haha of course PS4 you buy it later

My advice since you are young, treat stock investing like buying a house. Since you don't simply but and sell your house every few days or check the price every few weeks you should treat buying stocks the same way. Also since you plan to stay in your house for a long time it makes sense to find out as much as you can (location, price, rental yield how many rooms, who is the developer etc) before you take the plunge.

If you buy and sell your stock every month, I can almost guarantee you will lose money in the long run. I know I did.

One mental model to learn is the rule of 72. 72 divided by the interest rate is how many years it takes for your money to double. In Maybank case if you bought it now, at it's current dividend yield of 6.3%, in slightly over 11 and 1/2 years, you would have doubled your money. You double it faster if you reinvest your dividends into the stock and continuously buy and hold for the long term.

That is another mental model you can learn: compounding is the 8th wonder of the world. If you choose discipline and put more money continually into Maybank instead of buying that PS4 or watching that movie or eating that burger, in 10 years you would be able to buy 10 PS4, buy a movie theater system or own that burger franchise instead.

The secret is discipline: do you buy that PS4 now, or later?

In either case Maybank is a good stock for you to continuously buy, as if you bought it at 9.32 you would have enjoyed 32 cents dividends. My advice is if you can continue to just keep and don't sell ( and continue to buy every quarter) for the next 20 years, you will do well.

I'm sorry law Jun, as I am not doing any teaching or investment classes or investing trading or things like that, I don't believe I will be much help. Especially on the basics. Most of the investment ideas I have are very simple and direct and conservative, you just need to learn patience and consistency and most importantly discipline. I won't be able to help you much there as well, as those are things which you get from experience ( in my case bad experience).

I can however point you in the right way. I would advise you to look up Kcchongz as he has better documentation and learning materials, plus that some free ebooks he can email to you.

Real life experience can only be gained from real life. I would advise you to start your investing journey early, and keep a portion of your income as I do every quarter to invest. Refine your stock picks, and think very very hard before you buy any stock.

Treat your stock picking as if you can only buy a few stocks in your life.

It's weird but true, investing is the only activity where you can second guess(and triple guess) yourself many times, don't buy any stock at all and you won't be wrong at all. Over activity is the bane of the intelligent investor.

Optimusprime88 you seem very pro. Can recommend some share to buy?

This is not it. That concept is inaccurate and pretty much IMPOSSIBLE TO ESTIMATE as a reliable method of investing. 5 years of good returns does not project 10-15 years of cash flow returns. You cannot box in investing into one simple mental model. In fact, I said it before many times, ALL investing is VALUE investing. But now that Warren says it, buying pe50 companies ( with monopolistic characteristics) suddenly makes sense.

The most simplified way of looking at Berkshire investment is using these basic mental models:

1. The only assured, GUARANTEED way for shares prices to go up in the long term is with rising revenues, rising earnings fueled by controllable debt.

2. The easiest way to identify companies with competitive advantage is to first look to the market industry leaders and benchmark them against everyone else. A simple moat (like location, brand, management, cash pile) can go a long long way.

3. The idea behind paying up for wonderful companies versus paying cheap for average companies is based on the concept of risk. The first 10years of Amazon is growth fueled by high risk high reward. Now that they have built a dominant position in the market, that risk is getting lower and lower. Understand Risk first and foremost before investing.

4. Cash flows needs to have context. Matured companies will have better can flows than start ups. But just like a mirage in a desert, if you don't understand CONTEXT, you will not understand VALUE.

5. Everyone seems to want to look for the next Google, next Amazon, next Apple at it's infancy. But for every Google out there you will find a pets.com. history has shown buying quality works. If you had bought s&p 500 over the last 20 years and reinvested your returns, even without knowing a thing about stock picking you would have done well. In Malaysia, even if you knew next to nothing about investing, if you had just bought a basket of stocks around the most solid industry in Malaysia ( banks) if you had reinvested and continued investing in the market leaders (rhb, Hong leong, public, Maybank, cimb, bank Islam) over a long period 10-15 years you would have done well.
Buy quality, it works.

Investing doesn't have to be hard. You host need to be consistent, patient and concentrated.

>>>>>>>>
Posted by Choivo Capital > May 7, 2019 1:53 AM | Report Abuse

Value investing is buying all future cash flows, discounted to present value, at a discount/margin of safety.

This means, one of this fund mangers, believes amazon will be making a ton more money in the future with a high level of confidence.

That's it.

Stop comparing yinson with armada. One is a specialist company like haagendaz that only concentrates on one product (fpso), while the other is like your local junkyard that has everything inside (but no management and no value).

One does huge share buybacks( but only at low prices so shareholder value is kept) and gives dividends while the other keeps burning money.

One is a Malaysian company but uses international Norwegian management team. The other has many cronyism and favouritism.

One believes in doing smaller as long as the contracts ( and clients) are solid with money to pay ship conversation.

One is so big with so many idle ships that it must keep doing big, unfavorable deals because keeping the business afloat and running is more important than making money.

Debt is the stone that breaks our necks.

>>>>>>

Posted by Mabel > May 6, 2019 11:49 PM | Report Abuse

@alivetoinvest BUMI ARMADA Trading at 2x cents IS A ONCE IN A LIFETIME OPPORTUNITY.

2018 was the year of Impairments for Armada.
2019 the profits will SHOW.

Estimated Conservative EPS FY2019 = 7 cents

P/E Ratio Based on YINSON = 20x

TP RM 1.40 starting from next quarter released at end of May 2019

Let's go for this!

It's not new. Warren buffet has been doing this for a long time, like I said many times before, ALL investing is based on some form of value. In the end price is what you pay, value is what you get. If you are willing to pay a certain amount today to get big benefits in the future, then it is good.

There are pe50 companies, and there are pe50 COMPANIES.

Their local Sabah division owes me money, and their support office in tanjung aru plaza always empty and no one around all the time. Plus no management arm around most of the time. The hydro project announced but site is empty until today ( I was there last month).

This leaves a bad taste in my mouth. And the middle East projects are also very shady from my point of view. I can't monitor any connections and ongoing projects resolutions.

I'm not investing in companies which don't for my scuttlebutt criteria.
It may be very profitable, but for me the risk is high.

Pass for now.

Wow, I'm impressed, company buybacks are bad? Its cheaper and more effective than giving out dividends, and they are buying back at a low price.

That's bullshit and we both know it.

>>>>>>
Posted by optimusprime88 > May 3, 2019 5:02 PM | Report Abuse

insider new PP issue price going to fix at 60sen

i got the source

Those who don't know how to evaluate risk, really nothing much to say just go and buy TALAMT, asianpac and karambunai hold long long time. Those who know how to evaluate risk, hold and hug their ql tight tight.

Pity those who follow Calvin to hell.

>>>>>>
Posted by calvintaneng > May 2, 2019 6:18 PM | Report Abuse

QL is Quickly lock up

Sorchai follow Philip got capital locked up while

Calvin or call win already

Made from lafarge

When is profit not a profit? When it is stuck as a uncollectable trade receivables that has to be impaired.

Think about this logically. A Sabah timber company turnaround with a market cap of 20 million getting a 20 million contract from a company that sounds like a big company ( but is actually not), changing its name and hiding is tracks, and owner changed to different new young directors with a product you can get for cheap in almost every country these days (except in Malaysia where ERP still sounds sexy. Please. Its just another management software.)

Why are people buying now and pushing this microcap up so high?

Why not wait until they convert the announcement into "real" cash and pay a dividend, buy back those 1 billion units of stocks and treat shareholders like partners?

My advice:

Kids who buy stocks like aturmaju should just stop buying stocks and just stick to mutual funds or fixed deposit.

Understand your INVESTMENT RISK first, then buy the stocks. Not calculate your PROJECTED PROFIT first, then buy stocks.

Big difference.

And Calvin tan Eng is wrong once again.

I'm IT savvy. I don't have a single cent in this company, and I don't intend to. If it shows me 1 year of (collected) profits from ERP and not just trade receivables ( billed but not collected), then I might consider.

On second thought nope. Too much risk involved in any case.

I am worried. I think something bad might have happened to him. I hope he is doing ok,

Mr market at work. Still one day buy one day .

>>>>>>
Posted by calvintaneng > May 2, 2019 2:53 PM | Report Abuse

Lafarge

LA fa

LA fatatt!!

Wahaha!!!

Another chun chun call of Calvin Tan Research

>>>>>>>>
Posted by calvintaneng > Apr 29, 2019 10:14 AM | Report Abuse

Time to take some profit in Lafarge and switch to Kps now

With lowered profits and a murky future, how do you know you are getting 6% dividends in the future?

>>>>>>

Because if they are able to buy at rm3, they will enjoying almost 6% dividend after 2months time

All I can say is, PCHEM will introduce more supply in the coming years when PIC comes online in the coming years. It will be a direct competitor to Lotte.

I have no idea who will win in the long run, but a price war will impact margins, and the company with lowest margins always end up the loser.

I was told that a fire so big it could be seen and heard miles away from pasir gudang has failed to stop the completion of PCHEM complex.

It is still going to be completed in Q4 2019.

This is a textbook case of buying wonderful companies at a fair price and buying fair companies at wonderful prices.

Maxis and parkson cannot be compared at all...

Maxis has 2 billion revenue, 400 million profits, 18% net profit margins and 5.7% roe.

One is a REAL RED SEA with suppliers and competitors in all corners.

The other has only a few limited competitors like CELCOM, DIGI, YTL..... AND MAXIS.

Totally a blue ocean with fixed competitors ( you can't get online licensing of cellular services).

Calvin is really funny sometimes. This is how he loses respect and readers and believers.

Or he wants everyone to sell so he can buy low?

In either case.

SHAME ON YOU.


>>>>>>

2019 4:32 PM

calvintaneng MAXIS IS IN A SUNSET INDUSTRY JUST LIKE PARKSON HAMMERED BY E COMMERCE

SELL MAXIS NOW!!

When you go and buy a bottle of beer the price is RM10. When you go and buy 10 crates of beer the price do you think will be RM10 each as well? Obviously not. There are many intricacies to buying stocks, most importantly patience, discipline and consistency.

In this case, one must stay invested in the stock market to gain the 100k in the first place ( or make a lot of money elsewhere). Speculating in this manner (call it what it is) is insane and a crazy way to introduce new investors to a high risk form of speculation.

Putting 99% of net worth in a warrant gives you added complexity. On top of needing to understand how the company will work out in the long term, you also need to understand the momentum of the warrant. People who buy needs to understand the time value of the warrant, what is the market Volume, the market volatility and most of all the RISK involved.

That will determine everything.

If you take it theoretically ( for me it became a painful reality),

If you had 10 years of 85% portfolio growth, then followed by just 2 year of 85% losses, you would basically have burnt all your profits in one sweep. Very stressful way of "investing".

You need to understand risk. Especially if you don't get to enjoy dividends.

Having said that options ( warrants) trading is a very good tool for making short term money, if you accept it is a trading and speculating method.

I have friends who do this on a daily basis and they have a great career.

They would however put capital risk protection as their first and foremost mechanism. No trade should be more than 5% of their capital invested, as the example I gave was what really happened. They would hold 35-40 stock options and warrants so losses are tempered by gains, not the other way around.

Safety first.

Derivatives have always been a weapon of mass financial destruction.

The best method is always to build up a position in a growing good company slowly, building up your confidence in knowledge and understand the competitive advantage as you go along. When you are able to recognize the difference between permanent loss of business advantage and capability and a temporary problem in the market, a slowly profitable 15% consistently over a long time with added dividends is far more preferable, especially when sleeping at night becomes a priority.

You can either call it luck of call it skill ( I think luck and timing plays a huge HUGE part), but I think staying invested in the stock market and holding on and reinvesting in wonderful companies really make a difference. You just need to be able to monitor and aware that wonderful companies will also slowly turn into bad ones sooner or later. There is no such thing as buying and holding forever, you need to buy and hold but minoring quarterly is the key to everything.

No idea totally, I live in Sabah haha. You would probably know better than I do.

I thought you are selling everything and going into cash? Ql = quietly laughing to the bank.

For me I keep it very simple. Not that I am smart or anything, but because Warren buffet started it first and it made very much sense to me. We need to blot out noise and stick to details that matter. Profits, revenues, debt, cash, assets form the quantitative. management capability, industry growth prospects, business competitive advantage, market volatility forms the qualitative.

The news that foreign investors are leaving Malaysia in droves has caused some irrationality in the market allowing me to buy good stocks at cheap prices.

The global index, stock market performance, China USA relations I'm sure is a very real thing, but it will not affect much the price of chickens I buy or the make me stop driving cars in Malaysia.

In similar fashion, a good company will still run and make money just as a bad company will continue to lose money.

In the long run, it doesn't matter how the market reacts, as long as you continue to buy good companies and keep being invested in owning those good companies.

The trick is what's to recognize when you have a temporary business problem and a permanent loss of competitive advantage.

https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price

If we look at the technical outlook, there was a sharp drop in oil barrel price but moving averages, shougi and preseasonal factors will show that the oil price will range between the Brent 70-80 per barrel range. Of course momentum may change and the falling star(douji) may occur to bring the price down to the 50-60 range, which is within the 3 year and 52 week range. We shouldn't see anymore blitzing at 40 range anymore as this oil "war" has been costly for all involved. Of course if we look at longer term >5 years the crude oil price is on the uptake, and if we have a far right contrarianistic outlook we can project up to 100 per barrel, which will be a good beginning for the new pH government and all involved.


I project the oil barrel price to hold steady at 50-100 range, with a lookout at 40 for the short term, at 100+ in the long long (long) term. I base this on the total population of the world which is increasing, the usage of energy ( oil is still the cheapest form of generation or kWh) and the overall prospects of the industry.

Based on calculations and a report by MIT, even if all the cars in the world became electric. The energy usage will grow to undocumented levels in the next 50 years, and oil will still have it's place ( until everything gets used up).

Sorry for the satirical outplay, but I think you should put this into the too hard pile. There is no way we can be right (or wrong) in any specific prediction of the oil performance.

Many institutions and research companies have been wrong on this prediction thing smarter than you or I will be. George Soros made a lot of money in the previous oil crisis, but loss big in the next one ( as well as sold all his Google, Apple and Intel shares).

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.businessinsider.com/r-soros-bet-on-devon-energy-transocean-ahead-of-oil-price-rise-2015-2

Qqq3 any reason you keep a secondary account ( stockmanmy) ? The prose, writing style and comments are the same. I'm interested to know why you do it that way?

Everyone knows it's you. Right?

OK CALVIN SIFU WILL TAKE YOUR ADSSVICE. SELL AND BUY WHAT AH? INVEST IN TALAMT? YOU BOUGHT LATEST PRICE AT 5.5 NOW DROP to 4 CENTS. WITH NO DIVIDEND LEH, HOW AH? CAN BUY MORE NOW AT 4? OR CUT LOSS?

>>>>>>>

Posted by calvintaneng > Apr 23, 2019 10:27 PM | Report Abuse

HIGH CRUDE OIL PRICE MEANS EXPENSIVE RESIN FOR SYNTHETIC RUBBER

THIS WILL HIT TOP GLOVE EARNINGS BADLY

SELL ON REBOUND NOW!!

Meanwhile I heard nestle giving out 2% dividend leh, and growing every year the dividend. So how leh?

Stockraider is definitely right, if talamt can go up 0.5 Sen a day everyday definitely can get 10% gain a day. Very very true.

But how come until today talamt share 2014 price is 8 cents, today 2019 price is 4 sen leh?

Until today the market cap still below 200 million... Nestle market cap 34 billion.

Logic somewhere not right leh. When you promote talamt it climb to 5.5 cents. But now drop back to 4 cents.

How ah?

>>>>>>>

Just imagine today Talam today and yesterday up tiny 0.5 sen a day everyday, it already mean outperformance, it is a very substantial 10% gain a day loh.....!!

I do the same way, however with the added caveat of buying and planning for the long term, but monitoring on a quarterly basis the performance. Active management, but not too active. Meaning I don't do trades, I don't buy into warrants, I like dividend paying companies that grow their dividend over time, I don't buy into hope ( turnaround, white knight, distressed debt etc).

I like my companies clean and predictable.

I think I have had the chance for quite a while, I already have a big position (in my portfolio) in the biggest glove manufacturer in the world, topglov.i don't think HARTA is very much different from TOPGLOV in terms of competitive advantage, and currently I also have other stocks in my portfolio in different industry. I try not to clash and just concentrate on the best in each industry:

YINSON : FPSO charter
Ql. : daily consumables
TOPGLOV: glove manufacturing
PCHEM. : Petrochemicals
STNE (NASDAQ) : fintech
Gkent. : Specialty Construction

I think the cost of selling topglove just to buy harta would probably not be worth it for me in this stage, and I am mostly using my dividends from TOPGLOV these days to buy more TOPGLOV shares

Erm... Because it's a legacy stock that I bought since 2010 and I know it will enough to know how many lines it has, where all the factories are, I am comfortable with the management and most of all it is still very very profitable and growing over a long time.

No need to be so emotional shquah. If they keep writing because things it is even better as if the price can go down by 30th April when I receive my dividends I can buy more stock in it.

Pitiful man searching for likes.

Calvintaneng Tunnel vision philip has read Walter Schloss already?

>>>>>>>>>

You think just because you invest in 50 stocks you become Walter Schloss? In that case if I go jogging every day then I am comparable to Usain bolt?

Very funny. Walter Schloss won't invest money in twlamt, destini and other lousy counters like you lah